Investors selling out as no dividends in future.
u ready at 65c?
Do be careful as it could be a ploy by Zeta to drive the sp to 35c and then, takeover to strip the company clean?
In which case, wait at 30c.
:D
Printable View
Not sure if people own this is a yield stock, the change in dividend policy is not due to inability to pay its just not efficient for shareholders as dividends have no imputation credits.
New Zealand Oil & Gas was the worst performer on the benchmark index falling 2.8 percent to 70 cents. The listed energy explorer will return about $60 million to shareholders saying cash on hand will be more than it needs to grow its business as production ramps up at the Tui field. The company paid a final dividend of 3 cents a share in September but doesn't expect to declare any more dividends "in the near term" because it is deducting exploration expenses from its tax bill and isn't accruing imputation credits.
"Initially the price went up on the back of directors were considering a 15 cent capital return to shareholders, however the negative side has really taken over, being they don't intend to pay any more dividends in the foreseeable future," Williamson said. "Investors were actually in New Zealand Oil & Gas for the income because they were paying reasonable dividends."
http://www.nbr.co.nz/article/market-...dend-bd-165411
Plus Can they take a hint????
[ Example ]
Bathurst Resources [NZX: BRL], which was last year granted consent for an open-cast mine on the West Coast's Denniston Plateau, has trimmed down its board size as it clamps down on costs while waiting for the global coking coal market to improve.
whilst on this theme I understand the directors will have lots of partially paid shares.
A return of capital would make these less likely to reach their exercise price.
No doubt they will have some kind of provision to circumvent this.
Anybody know?
I guess the exercise price will be adjusted accordingly - in any case they'll have to work for it (and shareholders) if they ever
want to get any joy out of those partially paid shares - the lowest exercise price is about 95c.
Incidentally, I noted in the full year accounts page 22 section 9(c) that Available Imputation Credits on 30 June 14 were 1.1m - not enough for meaningful imputation this time. What I didn't find were the expenses/losses carried forward which reduce the current year's tax bill. Perhaps someone could point
out where to find those numbers in the accounts so we can get a feeling for when imputation credits will be accrued again.
It's a nonsense for any company to stop paying dividends due to lack of imputation credits - it does not really matter whether the company pays tax or the shareholders.
What does make sense is when a company is sitting on tax losses - in which case the tax losses need to be utilised before a company start paying dividends.
Wonder how a suspended dividend will be taken by cornerstone holders like ACC who will stop recieving an income.
Capital returns invariably result in a lowering of the share price equal or greater than the return amount over the long term - all things being equal. Share price will spike up just prior but will still settle down. So with no dividends imputed or otherwise as Balance correctly states, your total return is severely reduced. Wake up NZO directors - you are clutching at straws!
Wake up NZO directors - you are clutching at straws![/QUOTE]
No worries, they know exactly what there doing.
Seem to be more capable of anything other than realizing the Company's repetitive mantra = CREATING WEALTH FOR THE S/HOLDERS;
Should be more like WAKE-UP Share holders.
Some body will do very well out of this but it wont be the S/Hs the way its trending.
Hope sincerely to be proofed wrong.
Digger has gone awfully quiet?
Trust you are getting your funds ready for the 65 cents shares?
Zeta has run out of space to buy anymore.
16,000 only to buy at 65c - where is Digger?
The way he was going on, I thought he was going to sell his Komatsu digger and buy NZOG at 65c.
:D
I LOVE it!
:D
[QUOTE=sideline;516909]I guess the exercise price will be adjusted accordingly - in any case they'll have to work for it (and shareholders) if they ever
want to get any joy out of those partially paid shares - the lowest exercise price is about 95c.
These preferential shares as i understand it have pr-been payed to 1 cent so far. { $1000 for 100000] shares
So at the rate the S/P descents at present, if the directors feel that the S/P for some hard to imagine reason should claim again to the rarefied high of 95 cents or beyond,can pick them up at the right time for who knows what.
I see 35,000 to buy at 65c - you must be looking at another stock?
But why would I be disappointed? I wish my mate, Digger, well and as he stated he is eager for stock at 65c, he should be waiting there to get priority.
Or is it a case of Digger digging deeper again when he is already in a big enough hole to bury his faith in NZOG?
Meanwhile, TAP directors are hungrily buying into cheap shares on an almost daily basis. Also gave good commentary onnnumbers, why they're buying etc yesterday in an an announcement.
Noggers, you have an alternative here! Stop trying to defend this dog and go elsewhere!
Oh dear, the 35,000 to buy at 65c has just dropped to 30,000 as the sp drops to 66.5c.
I actually thought Digger would front up and put a few more to capture the selldown as the sp heads to 65c.
Or has Digger's tractor gotten bogged down in the NZOG hole?
Or maybe he now thinks the sp will be 55c?
:D
I LOVE it!
:D
These directors really know how to take care of the share price.
Tools.
Lucky I sold a good chunk a while ago. Unluckily didn't sell them all.
Balance - pride might come before a fall, you may have been told that by your parents?
TAP Directors still buying more. Exit NZO + buy TAP × Kiwi strengthening again = best thing you'll probably ever do.
Right, I'll leave it to Balance now. :D
A bit of leg-pulling not to be taken too seriously - Digger gives as good as he takes.
The falling sp could very well be the wake up call Duncan Saville needs to bring in some seriously qualified and quality management - quality, not quantity.
Tony Radford, Gordon Ward, David Salisbury and now, Andrew Knight - wealth destroyers, not wealth creators.
remember it was Zeta and dunc that instigated the capital repayment which balance said was not so good now your singing his praises....bob each way huh
Haha - hardly singing his praises. He bought into a pup and now needs to make it perform - nothing short of a surgical strike on the clowns running this outfit can change its fortunes.
What's the point of a capital repayment when oil price is heading down and soon, there are going to be some great oil & gas assets to be bought off distressed companies?
NZOG should be keeping the cash. Remember the clowns at NZOG made that dumb mistake 4-5 years ago of not buying assets when oil prices tank.
Someone put up 150,000 to buy at 66.5c, followed by another investor (or same?) 80k - big enough numbers to normally hold the sp but the selling continues.
Wonder if it has anything to do with one broker's recommendation that Indonesia is but a big monetary sink-hole worth 4c a share after all the money and time spent by NZOG's directors and management.
At the current SP I'm surprised NZO aren't buying their own shares back.
gee if that did it for you I hate to see you watching Renters or something!
The directors are not putting up their hands and buying shares, are they?
Hell of a show of (no)confidence by them.
Easier to have those 'heads they win, tails they do not lose' options and partly paid shares.
How NZOG rewards its bunch of clowns must be another area Zeta needs to crack down on and make the management really work and produce results.
Dry hole or bad investment, the option price is ratcheted upwards by the amount of the loss so they will be more careful next time.
GM Exploration has 'resigned'. Probably headhunted ..... hahahahaha..... We'll miss him, he was doing so well. Come back Eric Matthews, all is forgiven.
Looks like the company is trying to do just that with this so called capital return. Capital returns do not then remove shares just give back some cash for each share held. Buy backs gives money for shares cancelled and that is usually up to the individual shareholder to elect to take part. So we have this claytons capital return which is just a buy back by any other name.
So what is the plot. Smells to me like it could be a way to by pass the takeover code. If it is a buyback in reality regardless of what name it is given then then anyone or any company could elect not to take part and after the smoke clears will find that their percentage holding in the company has increased. So if company x is sitting on 20% prior to this buy back and company x does not take part in this so called capital return there percentage holding of the company will increase above the 20% limit of the takeover code. But most importantly it will increase above this 20% limit from no action from company x,so company x can hardly be accused of violating the takeover code when in fact the action that that allowed that to happen was taken by the target company.
What do other think? Now I do not know the small print and what I have stated above will not hold if everyone must take part in this claytons buyback that is going under the name of a capital return
Best defense against takeover is performance and sp strength.
NZOG has neither - just a bunch of clowns who have destroyed hundreds of millions of dollars of shareholders wealth.
I sense some changes in the wind. Now, where is the Zeta to our RAK?[/QUOTE] By BFG
Zeta maybe busy getting a director on CUE Energy's Board, a move opposed by that Cos. Directors.
Also what is the Tax situation with this share-buy-back scenario anybody??
BTW Digger; the 6 cents div. this year looks now like a CLAYTON Div. PAYMENT. when you end-up out of pocket, not getting one.
Typical Smoke & Mirror stuff, one is quite getting used to.
The CR applies to all holders wether they like it or not.
Just imagine if there was an opt out for the CR - this would lead to 2 types of shares - one that has had the CR, trading lower than one that has not had the CR = very confusing and very expensive to manage
The CR is coming with the "changing of the guard" and which directors will still be around 1-2 years from now is yet to play out
M
[QUOTE=the machine;518079]The CR applies to all holders wether they like it or not.
Just imagine if there was an opt out for the CR - this would lead to 2 types of shares - one that has had the CR, trading lower than one that has not had the CR = very confusing and very expensive to manage. End Quote.
That the capital return applies to all shares whether they like it or not is as how I first thought it. But what if it isn,t. Well for a start your bit about two types of shares is simply not correct. There would be just one type of share as of now it is just that those that did not take part would not have 20% of their shares cancelled and would therefor increase their percentage holding in the company.. If Zeta did not for example there % holding in the company would go from 20% before the buyback to 25% after. That would be a way around the takeover code as from my above post.
[QUOTE=digger;518088]Waiver required from NZX and other shareholders for Zeta to creep another 5%.
Zeta needs the cash so there is no issue in my mind of them not accepting.
Meanwhile, sp is getting down towards 65c, Digger-me-ole-mate. You there to help yourself to a few of the little beauties at 65c?
How does a CR result in cancelled shares? I can see how a buy-back could result in a company's holding rising above 20% if they elected not to take part (in which case I assume they would be required to sell down to below 20% again). However, a CR only results in less capital backing for the same number of shares?
[QUOTE=Balance;518096]
hi Balance me-old-mate. Do not worry I have not forgotten you or the 65 cent thing. It is just as it gets near 65 someone else buys it back up. Also it seems that the SP could rise as the WTI has bottomed and rising a little. Also with the 20% share cancellation the worry that the CR will just come off the SP is removed. Think I might miss out on those good 65 cent shares you promised me. Of coarse you could buy them at whatever and on sell to me at 65,just to keep us all sweet.
I did like that bit about I give as good as i get. The problem is that some other do not have the same since of humor and take it too seriously.
cheers all
[QUOTE=digger;518115]Just sit there at 65c, Digger - I have a nice feeling it will come to you within the next few days.
Otherwise, what's a cent here and there amongst ole-mates? :D
Me thinkth some posters have have fallen seriously for NZOG and can't bear for it to be describe as 'ugly'? Bit like the first girlfriend? :D
Where's Balance? - thought he'd be crowing from the rafters today.
I'm interested in this line from a Morningstar report from last month: "Woodward Partners said in the past decade NZOG had taken part in 28 wells with an overall 46 per cent success rate, which was no worse than average for the region."
Suggests NZOG has had more than 10 successful wells in the last 10 years. Apart from the recent Pateke well I can't think of any commercial discoveries since 2004, given that Indo hasn't been proven up yet and the Tui field production wells weren't discoveries. Any ideas?
Balance before you start crowing my computer is broken down and I can't reply.
Last day for the MSCI index adjustments today.
For once in my life I took your advise and decided to wait until they hit your new thirty mark.
sure is some big seller wanting out. Must be TR as he would be one of the few big enough to keep selling. Have never see him having to do a holding release so he must have had under 5% so about just less than 20 million. Can not now be too far from sold up.
Starting to get a bit more ominous, just who is buying that seemingly worthless script??
Not the sort of buying power and frenzy of your regular mum & dad investors.
Any OPINIONS,
Just a bit curious.
See ya later NZO. 65 cents is going to look expensive soon.
http://mobile.reuters.com/article/id...41127?irpc=932
Come on digger, help shareholders - by all accounts you have extensive shareholdings and should be calling for change here. I think its time for Mr. Knight to leave this sinking boat ( he has been in the Directorship thru Pike and now coupled with CEO must have and had huge influence). A hugely radical change of approach is needed , probably with new management to avoid complete failure from here on.
[QUOTE=dodgy;519483]
I think its time for Mr. Knight to leave this sinking boat ( he has been in the Directorship thru Pike and now coupled with CEO must have and had huge influence).
Ha,Ha, no worries there!
That lot needs no advise how long to stay on to milk it to the MAX.
Could also be the nearest to insider trading i guess.
Now would be a great time for NZO to announce the FID and expected cash flow from Kisaran!
looks like NZO will become another PPP.
Hi
From what I can see NZO share if and when granted will be nickles and dimes compared to the capital /share decreased value. How can anyone believe that a cap. return at 75c/share and cancel 1 in 5 will be even 1/2 smart compared to an on market buy back sub sub 70c.
I can not see how AK has anything at all to do with the falling SP.How has he had any influence with world events. It has all to do with the war. Putin wants Ukraine and ISIS is to be deprived of income regardless of outcome. Also OPEC has for some time now said they are not going to be the swing producers and want to take on the US shale oil head on. Let the market decide. All this sure hurts me but war is war and all NZO holders are part of the meat in the sandwrich. The rest of the world oil producers all also hurting or are soon going to.Canada's oil sands will be in deep sh-t. On last account Putin will be losing 140 billion a year compared to $100 oil he was to balance his books on. And that was before last fall of $5.50 of the WTI. last night.
This collapse of the world crude has hurt all producers,and will end badly after a few years we will be short of oil again. Boom and bust is the cycle. Beyond that all I can say is buckle down and do not spend it unless you have to. I see world oil being down for a few years not months.
Hi Digger
Forget the current, in part world inspired share price, and focus on the fact that under current leadership the share price has collapsed and WILL continue to do so
until a radical shakeup occurs. From a capital sale @ $1.50 a year or so back to a capital buy @ .75 - great return even with the stellar dividends - imputed or not. Yeah right! Unless this outfit buys existing production, then based on the last ten years its all downhill. Time for change - PR spins or not - or goodby majority of capital. Surely you can see this.
I agree with you Digger
Dodgy... good points and valid.
A wise man put it this way for me :-
ISIS... starve them of $$$
Putin... Starve him of $$$, although the Russian winter will help him.
Shale/Sand oils ... run them broke. Mothball them.
OPEC... looking after their own bums. And they have control of the market.
and this one...
Cheap fuel and interest rates is probably the only recovery path for Europe
and the EEC. And even then it will take time.
Big thinking behind curtains? G20 maybe. G10 ?.
Face facts, if Europe goes into deep depression/deflation, we all suffer big time.
My post is a generalization, But think about it.
BB
My friend is a wise man
My point that all producers will and are suffering from the drop in WTI and Brent is to do a relative comparison of TAP to NZO. TAP was 70 cents when NZO was 80. Now TAp is 45.5 so where would NZO be at that same fall.
Simple ratio has it at 52.5 cents.
70/45.5 = 80/x
X then equals 52 cents.
So NZO faired the storm better than TAP.
On average NZO will fall one cent for every two dollar fall in WTI.
But I must say AK would be flattered to think he had as much influence as some posters are suggesting. It all comes down to world events. And yes it hurts but AK has nothing to do with it. Try Putin.
Hard to believe that there are still individuals on this forum, that seriously dream NZO is still around if & when the O/P rises.
If indeed it lasts the next 12 months.
Blaming Putin is a laugh, while Nato bombers fly over terrorist held producing Gas & Oil installation, on there way to supposedly destroy ISIS POS. in Kobani.
Ok try AWE then. According to web site graph AWE was $1-80 when NZO was 78. AWE is now $139.5. On that same percentage ratio NZO would be 60.45.
My simple point is that all oil producers are suffering the crude drop,and mostly I see little value in blaming AK. AK or any of us are just not that important on the world stage.
Here Balance you have presented one of your better ideas for discussion. For many years I have been in favor of exploring and NZO sells itself as an explorer. After the TIN CAN fiasco I am dead against further exploring at least until we can sort out an agreement with the drillers who pays for there mistakes.
Buying existing production may be better in the hands of each shareholder than from NZO.. NZO shows any interest in acquistions and it will simply drive up the price. Each individual can do that without having any effect on the SP. Also there is the small concern that NZO as a company was not set up to simply invest in other companies.
I am in favor of the company going ahead with the 1 for 5 cancellation and giving 15 cants for each share.
What do you poster think nZO SP will be after the 15 cent distribution and 1 for 5 cancellation. Here is my simple algebra.
Today it is 62 cents so what will it be after the distribution given that it is 62 cents on that day.
5{62}= 4x+15[5]
x=58.75.
So the sp for the remaining shares should lose about 3.25 cents.
A picture says a thousand words (and shows great investor sentiment of NZO).
Attachment 6528
Anymore comparisons you'd like to make Digger?
I sincerely hope you get a chance to bail at a decent price. The story is only gettimg worse while so many red flags have been raised...
[QUOTE=BFG;519820]A picture says a thousand words (and shows great investor sentiment of NZO).
Attachment 6528
Anymore comparisons you'd like to make Digger? Quote
Just had a quick look at AWE and can not find a statement about their dividend policy.For a fair comparison can you post the results in this regard. Thanks.
The change to dividend payments applies only 'near term' according to company announcements due to the current limited availability of imputation credits.
If the company wants to pay out 60m to shareholders and does it as 'dividend' the IRD would grab 20m as RWT - if it is done as 'return of capital' the
shareholders get every cent. The latter is clearly preferable and much better than paying 3c unimputed every half year!
Alternatively, you could let overcapacity of drillers work for you and contract the best rigs at great rates when demand is low.
That's too simplistic because it neglects the possibility of synergistic effects.
In this market?
Me too but only because I see NZO as mispriced and an arbitrage waiting.
Completely agree with you on this one. This is structural and not temporary. But the oversupply won't last forever and there are some real bargains out there. I'm not ready to make that bet yet. Just keeping an eye on winter in the US and big oil starting to call the shots in Washington.
Casino
Thank you for the above post, you say it all.
The big boys have got together that,s for sure.
The Arabs don't like ISIS, or at least those in power don't.
And they don't like what Putin is doing as it threatens their markets.
"big oil starting to call the shots in Washington." Not only Washington !!
BB
PS we havént heard much about North Sea Oil and where is fitting in.
Bet the Scotch are happen they stayed with England.
Hi all
I believe very strongly in accountability - and this has been sadly lacking in this company and in fact NZ. Who disagrees except Digger? Although world events have a part - remember that the share price / returns have been steadily tanking over the last year despite extremely robust oil prices. And I do realise that the largest US oil company has retail and supply chains (Exon Mobil), and that the US economy is growing , as is NZ's - Share price in US$88.62 on 26/11/2012 and $94.48 26/11/2014 source Etrade USA and NZOG 87c on 26/11/2012 and 63c on 26/11/14. I suggest the management of Exon actually knows how to run a company well and is accountable to shareholders. I have followed and invested in this company (in hope of more Kupe and Tui as I suspect you have Digger), and to date have never really seen any decent management except for TR in the early days and Mathews the geologist - I think that was his name - correction? AK offered increased overheads by way of world class team of back office wallies with the implied success to follow. Well? We still have the overhead , just no results. Plenty of PR spin but no results. Increased capital but no results. Don't think that South East Asia will do it - such a minor share in the action. Only answer is vote against a capital return as I will and demand a further buy back as the share price sinks. Ideas?
nzo can't do anything about the oil price - before tui it was under $50 a barrel I think.
Capital return suits me fine since nzo have no requirement for the funds
M
That is what happens world wide. Exploring will become prohibitive and the globe will be relying on what fuels are in the pipeline. Remember this tight oil depletes in about three years or less so drilling must never have a break or the system collapses. We also need to remember that at $60 or less we have peak oil,at $100 plus we have a glut.
There will be lots of CEO's sharpening their pencils on whether to drill or not in the near future,and enough will not go ahead to guarantee a shortage in the future.But I think it will take a year or two.
6 months, Digger and the world will see massive defaults by some of the leveraged oil players.
According to BBC, some 22% of junk bonds issued out there today are by oil companies.
At $60 per barrel which is where OPEC will drive the POO to in an effort to close down the shale oil producers, most of the shale oil producers are gone burger.
Which is why NZOG should be conserving its cash and buying some cheap assets soon.
Will relay have to wait where O/P & S/P end their present downhill run.
Would be interesting to get any idea on oil revenue before tax?
Seeing price has dropped 30% so far, as expenses stay the same so may not much leeway left there???
The present team has not significantly contributed to what was mainly due to TR and Eric Mathews. [Gross ineptitude springs to mind ]
Which where regardless of a lot of bad press mainly of the former, the architects of what 7 years ago was a dynamic and promising entity. Good oil flow & prices.
Hard to imagine that lot to be able to cope with what is going to unfold now that would save S/H wealth let alone significantly increase it.
Sharks gathering ?
Sub 60 cents now, will act from resistance from here on out (if it ever reaches this level again that is).
Still some buyers left for those that want to flee (and I wouldn't blame you either!)
Can the co. realistically consider paying 75 cents each for 20% of cancelled shares?
Just wonder, any hopeful dreamers still left out there????
Or is this the moment of management finally coming out, revealing its true professional expertise??
$130m in the bank so that's not an issue and NZO will continue to receive revenues from Kupe & Tui.
It's more a question of whether Duncan Saville & Zeta have the guts to make wholesale changes to NZOG's strategy and management.
Market is pissing itself in the pants over falling oil prices - in six months, it will reverse as OPEC will win in the end because as the BBC puts it, their cost of production averages out at US$25/barrel and most are sitting on huge financial reserves.
Some cheap assets to pick up soon for a company with cash.
Hope your right!!!!
Not so sure if Zeta cares much about other S/Hs. but again as above.
Lots of unexpected events possible next 6 Mts, in present times more so than ever.
TWT.
So what is the best path forward? There have been such big and certainly unexpected changes in the world since the first announcement of the capital return that the company should go back and look at the idea. At the time it seemed reasonable but things have changed soooo fast that if it were first discussed today it would almost certainly not be a 15 cent return and a 1 for 5 cancellation. I seem to be moving toward a smaller return and the same cancellation,or the 15 cents with a bigger cancellation. A 1 for 4 would bring it more in line with todays prices.
What do others think?
http://www.thetruthseeker.co.uk/?p=107709
No comment, it speaks for it self!
Yes the next 6 months could be very interesting.