Not every day like with ATM.
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So A2M closes at A$11.84 today = NZ$12.64 vs $12.80 close on NZX.
Pathetic volume on NZX today vs ASX - miserable 12% volume on NZX vs ASX.
Matter of time before this stock decamps to ASX like Xero.
Let’s see what happens tomorrow morning when NZX starts trading.
sw reporting from Piha, Came out here on Tuesday for one night and am still here. Had the best day blokarting yesterday, what a high, continuous 25kt winds from the west:t_up:. Now back to a2, what a low, will probably open about 12.68ish, but am going to sit it out or blokart it out and wait for the silly shorty games to end. a2 is just being a2 with its yearly ups and downs.
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https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/con...es-day-concert
Taylor Swift to headline singles day -That's got to be a good thing.
I've just returned to NZ from a 2 week holiday in China. I was asking around in Shanghai, Xian and Beijing if they had heard of A2 milk and guess what ? No one had heard of it, even though one of them has a 15 month old baby. I didn't get the chance to look at the supermarket shelves, so I wondered if I could spot any there.
I'm not sure if this is a good or a bad sign... ? Does this mean that ATM has heaps of potential for growth or does this mean a failed advertising campaign run so far ?
I spoke with many people in NZ of my friend group and none of them even heard of ATM being on the NZX/ASX.
With China having a population of 1.4 billion people I am understanding not everyone has heard of A2 milk and its benefits.
I guess it is our best kept secret.
Jayne will try and fix that by throwing many hundreds of millions more marketing spend at the problem. Whether its money down a rat hole is the $64,000, (or for some people many times that), question. Only time will tell. Much, much easier to pick low hanging fruit than use ladders to get to the more difficult ones.
Some positive signs for ATM holders as we head into November...
1.) Signs that Shorts are retreating. (Note; this data is delayed 4 working days)
2.) Indications that November is a good month for holders
Onwards and upwards... GLH.
Presentation to be given today at the Select Equities Conference in Sydney today.
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-websit...483/310877.pdf
Nothing new - is that a good thing or a bad thing? :confused:
It's not an 'announcement' as such, just their usual practice of publishing to market the same materials presented. Have a look here for the purpose of the conference and why Jayne is presenting. http://www.selectequities.com.au/eve...ngs-conference ... along with the other 18 presenters over two days.
Latest News from the CEO .
Big Read: A2 Milk - formula for growth - NZ Herald
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/...ectid=12280993
Any way to read this without paying for it??
Should be a good day for ATM on Monday. https://www.cnbc.com/2019/11/01/chin...ade-talks.html
I remain cautious with the valuation and the fact that they are so reliant on the Chinese market.
A2 earned over twice the total revenue of China/Asia $405m from Australia/NZ $842m
How much of the Australian sales was product brought to on sell into China ?
The Listener had a bit on A2 v A1 this week
Seemed reasonably complementary to A2 ...as long as you were prpared to pay more for it (and the perveived benefits)
I have IBS and switched to plant-based milk products a couple of years ago. Whenever I drank regular milk I invariably had cramps, bloating and gas. Since investing in A2 a couple of months ago I thought it would be the decent thing to at least try the product.
Guess what? No cramps, no bloating and no gas (not from the milk, at least). I really wasn't expecting it. Price per litre works out to a few cents more than what I pay for Pams soy milk. It's creamier and tastes better. Thumbs up from me.
Given the complexities of IBS it's not guaranteed to work for everyone, but it's certainly worth a try if you have any gastrointestinal issues.
The same here , it wasn't that bad when I was at a young age but then I got the same problem when drinking milk as yours at the age of 35, since then I and my children changing to A2, the kids are so happy about A2 Milk and told me to change to A2 because their stomach feel so easy, they just refuse to drink normal Blue Anchor Milk. I feel the same so here we go A2 Milk since. Being honest Goat Milk is also feel good but the problem is it is so expensive and I am just an average earner. And please don't talk about alternate milk or vegs milk, can't compare it is maybe just for vegeterians but not for me and they are also expensive as hell :scared:.
I see A2 milk sold in the supermarket under the Anchor brand as a2 The a2 Milk Company & also under licence under the Fresha Valley brand as 'fresh A2 Protein' milk.
Since this is just milk from cows with the A2 protein & easy enough to segregate herds, can someone remind me what's going to stop China agri (or any one else) from doing this. Why would they remain dependent on NZ for this milk for long if a growing demand exists? Forgive me if this such a naive question but still a bit of a mystery to me after seeing all these dairy factories (under cover milking herds) we've built in China & the strong drive for independence of food supply.
This my biggest concern about investing in A2 now & if we are not going to see anything like the strong growth its had going forward, & unable to meet its projected PE.
Nothing stopping the Chinese or anybody else to copy the product (A2 milk, this is ...) ... and it even would be legal (as long as they are careful in naming it). A2 might have an edge in testing for A2, but I don't think this is an issue as soon as competitors have pure A2 herds ...
However - the big money maker for A2 is not the milk, but the Infant formula (IF) ... and for some funny reason do Chinese parents not trust Chinese companies to produce IF which is good for their children. Must have something to do with poisonous non food items found previously in Chinese milk products (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_Chinese_milk_scandal) ...
Ah yes, and for the infant formula do Synlait have IP protection - the recipe contains more than just milk.
I won't win any friends for saying this but :-
I used to think the intellectual property that ATM often bragged about was worth a lot and was a defensible moat.
Nestle debunked a lot of myth about that a while back and I believe over time A2 Milk will just become another commodity.
I agree ATM has first mover advantage but that only lasts so long and then...
Its easy enough for PRC to issue an edict that changes the goalposts and any company that relies on the Chinese for a large proportion of their sales deserves to have an appropriate risk premium attached to it
Growth is quite obviously slowing and the risk is eps growth slows even further in FY21 and beyond and the PE contracts still further as ATM becomes just another commodity company.
An enormous amount of future growth is already built into the share price and one wonders if its not more than fully built in.
The company enjoyed fabulous outperformance in the strong growth phase with Geoffrey Babbage's tremendous leadership but the jury is well and truly out on whether Jayne Herdlicka can continue that momentum.
On the plus side mega star Taylor Swift is the headline act at the singles day this month and the annual meeting isn't far away.
That perspective sounds like a barrier to entry in countries that trust their existing suppliers, ie America
Not a barrier, but yes, supplying melamine free (and what else creative Chinese factories might want to add) IF might be in some other markets not such a strong distinguishing criteria :):
Still - it is A2 and it takes probably a decade or so for other markets and competitors to build up their own A2 herds in sufficient numbers.
But yes - at some stage I'd expect all cows will be A2 and the advantage will be gone.
The Beagle is barking again, must be time to buy a few more of these currently seriously undervalued beauties. PS-$17-$18 by this time next year.
I suppose the advantage (or disadvantage) of IF over milk market, is that people haven't built brand loyalty as long because (most) people aren't having babies all throughout their lives.
Beagle, I agree, but I think after having built a good brand with a large customer base, although the low fruit has been picked, there are other orchards to take a wander through. In the future, i see a2 chocolate, cream, yogurt, flavored milk, creamer, etc. All big markets. Obviously lots of work, but it's not like this company hasn't proven its ability to build and distribute an fmcg product.
I agree. I used to work for a cigarette factory and made two cigarettes with the same ingredients and filters. They just had two different inks on them. One was sold for $2 per packet more back in 90s. iPhone or Samsung, they both do similar things, one just holds higher status in the eyes of some....... Marketing done at its best.
And one of the reasons hence that they are ramping up their marketing spend.
That isn't itself a bad thing. But the problem is it is an investment, needs to be done really well - as all too often marketing spend is just frivolous and money wasted. (Been in a company that did that...…but they thought they were great)
They say Coca cola has a secret recipe - which would give them an IP advantage. I don't know and I am not a fan of any drink of the coke variety, but it does taste somewhat different to others.
However with A2 milk, it is just milk - and would not be different to any other A2 milk ...
But hey ... if buyers think that A2 will hold an eternal brand advantage over all competitors, then I can live with that. Currently holding a small parcel and happy to sell them to the most enthusiastic buyer ... as soon as the price is right ;);
Discl: Drinking our own (on our block produced) A2 milk since decades ... and I am talking here about real untreated milk - fresh from the cow and thick creme sitting on top. I can confirm it tastes so much better than anything we could ever buy in any supermarket ... and I don't need ATM to get it ...
Company presentations used to make a quite a meal of their IP, trdemark and patent protection. Pages 12-15 of this presentation an example of that http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-websit...065/248602.pdf
Great to see that , although there are just a few like you can do so. The rest need to go to supermarket and choose their milk :).
Beside , my cousin with an Autism Kid, after all the counseling and books and research, he finally decided to let his kid drink A2 Milk and he noticed the kid can easy pooing and thanks to that the kid is more focus and listening and since starting with A2 Milk in just 10 months, the kid is doing without trouble at school. I do noticed that as well, it seems rocket science for what I am trying to say here because there are no proof or the big boys Pharmacy didn't want to go further. I don't care , but that is how I am observing the kid. Since I have trust to this A2MIlk.
There are challenge but there are faiths and the name A2 MILK ( ATM) is the beginning of the story.!
Jacinda Ardern announces upgrade on free trade agreement with China
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/...ectid=12281876
I particularly like this part ...... ' In dairy, existing conditions had been maintained, with all safeguard tariffs to be eliminated within just over two years for most products, and four years for milk powder.Ardern: "This means that by January 2024, New Zealand will have the best access to China for dairy products of any country."
fwiw I don't drink milk but last month I decided being a shareholder wasn't enough, I also had to test the product. So for 2 weeks I used A2 milk in my morning smoothie. So far so good and yeah it was milk but I was happy using water. Then I switched to standard milk and it gave me discomfort straight away. I spare you the details.
Also the daughter of a colleague suffered from bad acid Reflux during her pregnancy and her eating A2 ice cream actually did wonders (not sure if this was an excuse to eat ice cream though).
Either way that's why I'm holding on to my holding. More and more people are talking about the benefits they experience with A2 milk. And that's only in NZ where we had fresh milk and other products for a while now. My hope is that China is still growing (albeit slowly) but I keep a very keen eye on the North American market too.
My wife and I only drink A2(About 8 litres a week) which includes the stuff that mixes with the alcohol, we dont have any problem with drinking A1 that we know of but A2 tastes so much better plus to support the company where most of our money sits.
Whenever my family goes out on weekends, my wife and I have coffee together. At the same time, she always used to suffer from sore belly and had to know where the nearest bathroom she could go wherever we went. We initially thought she just had weak intestines. One day, I suddenly came to think that it might have been due to the normal milk she drank from her flat white. I started testing by letting her stop drinking a normal milk but started letting her drink my son's A2 milk. Also for her flat white, we started swapping that with one with soy milk. Guess what, now she never complains about sore belly and doesn't go to bathroom as often as before. I actually wish all the cafes would provide an option to make coffee made with A2 milk instead of only vegan milk. It will help a lot of people like my wife enjoy a nice cup of coffee without worrying about having to go to bathroom so often.
NZ infant formula already goes into China with zero tariff. There is no additional benefit for ATM with the upgraded FTA with China - which kicks in 4 years from now anyway.
The biggest issue with ATM at present hopefully will be addressed at the ASM on 19 Nov - update on revenues and margins.
We seem to be going through another cycle of 'A2 milk is really good for me'.
A2 milk is good for some people and they are willing to pay a premium for it (not ATM milk specifically but milk of solely a2 protein).
I drink the cheapest milk and always will - I don't have a problem with a1 protein.If a2 protein milk becomes more popular and prevalent it will reduce in price and profitability - after all, once you have a herd, it doesn't cost more to produce the raw product.
Fresh milk isn't where ATM will make the money.
Yup - agreed.
Been mentioned numerous times before that the Chinese are buying A2 milk (infant formula) because of its proven benefits (albeit anecdotal) to those who are lactose intolerant.
But still nice to know that posters here are all waking up to the benefits - spread the word. I have been and have been receiving positive affirmations of the benefits of drinking A2 milk.
Fresh milk is where the company started their success and the 10% fresh milk market share they enjoy in Australia provided the basis for everything that followed. My own hope is the huge money they are making from Chinese IF sales will be used to develop the American market - if they can recreate the Australian success over there I will be very happy. Not just fresh milk of course, there's cheese, yoghurt, butter, ice cream, fresh cream - a whole world of products to expand into to prevent the company being too reliant on one product in one market.
And there we differ - their entry into the American market is one reason why I cut back my shareholding in ATM - the US market is a graveyard for NZ companies. What makes ATM think they can foot it in the US when almost NZ companies which went there suffered horrendously?
With such a success of A2MILK , there will always businesses trying to copy it. But to me , if I need to choose between a Chinese A2 or Nestle A2 or whomever , I will choose the one and only A2 MILK (I am Asian but I know you can't never be sure the Chinese will come back and say: sorry we made a mistake in our A2's processing, there are extra sh.i.t in there , we are deeply appology). A2MILK , ATM.NZ all the way :)
The Chinese will always a copier even from ( KFC, MC Donalds , NIKE....) They try to convince the world , they can make it cheaper.. so use their products.... Once they got controls things will be different!
Bridges are collapsed due to missing some concrete and REAL STEEL posts...
We can't go back and sue them , because the entire system are corrupted with human right unlike the NZ and AUS.
There we go again, why we and chinese and others choosing A2MILK ATM.NZ.
They are still growing market share in Australia - 10% growth in the last year, now up to 11% market share, despite competitors trying to get on board. I am not aware of any A2 cows milk competition in America but feel free to prove me wrong. The stories above are part of my confidence - A2 gives an option to a significant group who think they can't handle dairy products.
The alternative option of leaving all their eggs in the China IF basket would make me nervous.
I think today and for the next 2 days are the last days of shaking and collecting .
These 3 days it can even go as deep as $12.63 to collect.
might be pushing lower time after our consolidation at the recent lows
This can't be right, share price down another 20 cents just before the famous singles day, (and this one headed by Taylor Swift which surely is good for another $1 on the share price ?), and annual meeting.
Must be time for another investor presentation...
Shorters are very bad dogs. How do I short this one :lol:
Couldn't agree more and couldn't live with the stress and constant risk of a margin call, who needs that crap in their lives ? I think Coutts knows I was just yanking his chain. Heading down towards my fair value of $11.50 anyway...so it might be time to go long sometime in the foreseeable future, assuming the narrative doesn't deteriorate more or Jayne doesn't build substantially more robustness into the management hierarchy. From where I sit it would appear she spends like a whole ship load of drunken sailors on long overdue shore leave. Some of that spending must find a worthwhile target eh ?
I tried that with the Warehouse over the last couple of years. Buying all my household cleaning products, using Warehouse mobile, and getting my tramping gear from Torpedo 7. Just this afternoon I bought Giant Roman Candles from the Warehouse. If you give it enough time, and buy enough product from the company you're invested in, I've found the share price does turn around eventually.
Thank you for sharing your perspective. Why don't you trust Nestle ? a Swiss company that has a history all the way back to 1866.
https://www.nestle.com/aboutus/histo...ompany-history
I have no issue whatsoever buying Nestle products and consider their reputation at least as good as any other food company and probably much better than most.
Lets face it, it Nestle were bad they still wouldn't exist today and would have been sued in to bankruptcy many decades ago.
ATM a relative newcomer by comparison.
Oops - old news - wrong year :( ... withdraw and apologize ...
Hi Beagle, I respect Nestle and I use to drink their Milo every morning. Sometimes when some company is too big to fail is a different perspective, people will still drink normal milk they use to drink and use cheese, cakes... despite Nestle's products or Fonterra...
As a business owner I believe A2 cows are relatively old but has been Ignored because the doctor want you to be sick ,the goverment want you to work, the police want to see crimes... It didn't mean I trust or distrust any brands , it's just I believe the root to bring it up is A2 Milk ATM.NZ and they got the herds and more advantage to continuing the products, this product will be bombarded from any corners, they will try to bring it down to close A2.
THEY DO NOT INTEND TO OPEN THE MARKET FOR A2 DESPITE ALL THE FACTS ABOUT THE DIFFERENTS BETWEEN A1A2 OR A1 AND A2. IT COST THE BIG BOY TOO MUCH TO REPLACE THE WHOLE DAIRY THEY PUT INTO PLACES.
I love and support the products despite they say it is just a myth about the different. It does indeed help my Autism cousin :) .
Dairy prices jump 3.7 per cent at Global Dairy Trade auction
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/...ectid=12282687
Strong and Steady.
Except when they are not. Nestle has a long history of overly aggressive marketing of breast milk substitutes, particularly in under developed countries, and have been subject to multiple, co-ordinated boycotts. The question we, as investors, need to ask is what is our ethical threshold when it comes to placing our dosh?
Disc: I do hold ATM
Anyone want to take out those 75,000 shares on offer for $12.95? They are quite an eyesore and I dont have the available cash lol