Thanks Percy that’s more what this thread’s about.
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The nearest RV to me (RYM not OCA) is offering a 12-month weekly fee waiver and a $10k credit if you settle an occupation rights agreement (villa or apartment) by 22 December. This is further evidence that there is real competition in the marketplace among providers at present to get stock away to customers.
Obviously the population demographic is at its most favourable but the general property market is now not helping folk wishing to sell down, while the build rate within the sector has been steadily rising for some time. Balance is yet to be achieved.
Not a terrible write up on the sector but as with everyone else they miss the forest of the Business model for the trees.
The rest of the article is downright dangerous, I am getting in touch with them to see what their record is as if they can get out at the earliest signs of storm clouds and then presumably back in an an opportune time while stating that anyone saying you cant is a salesman or paid media, then their record will not only be market beating it will be market destroying.
I wont be.
OCA getting some traction now, with a market close at 84c despite going ex-dividend earlier in the week. Perhaps the worst is over.
Another month and the long term trend remains
Even in a month of carnage for the sector SUM share price outperformed OCA (ie the fall was less worse)
Never mind. Soem will take solace from old friend Ben when he says '“In the short run, the market is a voting machine but in the long run, it is a weighing machine.”
What that actually means here I have no idea but it seems to me that the market has been 'weighing' up OCA quite well but I'm sure there are many who will say the market is still voting and this trend will eventually change.
Eventually an interesting word - wonder what will cause 'eventually' to happen and when
Sorry for being boring and bringing up again but it's just one of those 'mathematical' things that fascinate me and to some degree there's some beauty in the chart
Depressing chart. Most charts pointing to the bottom right are. And yes, it clearly shows that market priced SUM over the last 5 years higher than it priced OCA.
Not sure though, how to predict the future based on a trendline of an arbitrary ratio of two share prices.
If we use linear extrapolation, than one OCA share will be in 5 years from now worth 0% of one SUM share.
Does this assumption makes sense? No, of course not ... but hey, this is what linear extrapolation gives you.
Apart from attempts to extrapolate trends without understanding the underlying mathematical model being non-sensical (but I know, we all do this) - do we fall here as well into the trap to equate share price with share value, despite all understanding the difference.
Value is determined by asset base and by future earnings potential.
If we use NTA as asset base ...
OCA does have a NTA of $1.34 per share - i.e. at 84 cents you get a 37% discount.
SUM does have a NTA of $8.36 per share - i.e. at $9.57 you pay a premium of 14%;
I prefer to buy cheap (i.e. with discount) vs dear.
If we look at the earnings potential:
SUM's 3 years forward PE (yes, based on analysts forecasts) is 9.8
OCA's 3 years forwards PE is 7.
But sure - nobody (neither analysts nor markets nor we) can predict the future.
Both good value companies, but OCA clearly seems to be the better deal - but I guess this is what your chart shows as well. You make money when you buy shares the market undervalues, not if you buy them at the peak of market exuberance.
Of course - maybe the market knows something we don't and has a good reason of undervaluing OCA vs SUM ... but lets face it - probably it does not. Markets are due to their power always right (in the present), but as often wrong in predicting the future than anybody else.