You speak too soon. :D I only have a poke at MD for fun. This place will not be the same without the old man and his bagpipe constantly blowing hot air. :p:D
Printable View
Nita your quote....."ps. in a bear market a stock with good fundamentals will stick out like a dwarf on a basketball court. In a bullish market even the worst stock can rise faster than Edmunds Baking Powder"
In theory and in a perfect world this would be true...but....we are in neither.
The bear market especially towards the end just before the bull emerges investors are physiologically battered especially in certain market sectors that taken the blunt of the market storm, there is investor disinterest, doom and gloom, and only the harder souls emerge to take a punt.
Rumours abound puts off the investors investing in even the best fundamental stocks...it is possible a great stock may take a beating due to unfounded rumours, and a shaky stock may do the opposite.
What I am saying is that in a bear market logic tends to be forgotten about, and irrationality rules.
I am a fundamentalist and long term investor by nature but I curb my instincts, hold cash for that rare opportunity, and go shorter term when the market turns into a bear.
Hate to sound like MD but at this stage of the overall market cycle TA is the way to go.
In a bear market investor behaviour is irrational and TA gives you the lowdown on how to manage that behaviour. Also pays to find other investor behaviour analysis to identify advanced warning signals so to bail out before a major correction. You also have to assume that a bear market may last for years, so just waiting it out in the market with a good fundamental stock is usually a bad option. Shorter term investment and more discipline on stop/loss is important.
NZO is fundamentally a good stock to have but if the bear emerges which it is showing signs of doing (even within the energy/mining sector) then a change of investment strategy is needed.
Disc: Presently have NZO, PRC, DPC, + 80% cash (Had 13 stocks in my portfolio in mid 2007 + 5% cash)
Nita...sorry to be a party-pooper and spoil your pre-xmas fun.
NITA i notice that even you are passing the parcel like a hot potatoe. What i know about trading and what you know about trading is of no interest to anyone other than ourselves. I once tried to explain a time line which opened my eyes to the utter stupidity from comments that some so called investors come out with. It was as frustrating as trying to teach a dumb seven year old kid the nine times table. NZO is not a good traders share with not enough turnover. Fundamental investors have stood still for three years. Most of the good news is out, the sp is at this low level simply because of distrust that investors have for the company. If you knew anything at all about trading you would not be holding the options all the way down from 30c to whatever it is today. That speaks volumes to me about your trading ability. Macdunk
I think we are not entering a recession as such, but stagflation. I'm bullish oil as I believe it will act as a store of value in times of high inflation and I also believe in the peak oil theory.
Now for those options...
http://img295.imageshack.us/img295/2950/nzoodma4.png
The first divergence between the prices and on balance volume (a running total of volume traded on up days minus volume traded on down days) was a warning sign to tighten up stops. This divergence was also present on several other indicators such as 7 day RSI, 10 day stochastics, and 5 day stochastics. The second bearish sign would have been given by the failure of the 26c floor (resistance). This completed the rectangular top pattern. Basic pillars of TA theory such as resistance would have gotten you out around the 26c mark (excluding slippage), or even running a 25% stop loss would have been better than "buy and hold". The interesting thing about this chart is that it may suggest there were some people in the know about the results of the Hector drill before they were publicly released. We saw pretty similar pre-announcement selldowns in RAK before, although another possibility was that traders like us were selling down since the chance of Hector being dry was much higher than that of it being a jackpot.
hoop, in theory most of your post is relevant. and of course should there be a significant change in commodity prices (sorry bermuda) then the fundamentals change a lot.
MD. Good to see I at least got a reply except you werent brave enough to give your reasons about you knowing more than me with regards to trading. I thought you have more banana in you. Have i ridden my ods all the way down from 30? actually over thirty since i have sold a big chunk over that price. Perhaps you can then do the math. my options were part of the risk i was prepared to take. It is important to put things into c0ontenxt and understand what i have sold. In short I am so well in the money on od's even if the parcel ends up empty.
Yes i may loose a few grand with what i am holding but i am prepared for that. My risk/versus reward management which i can live with.
ps. Do you sell your house because the value drops 10 or 20% in a 12 month period? and does your stop loss on this spit you out and you renter the market at the bottom again?
[QUOTE=Nita;
MD.
ps. Do you sell your house because the value drops 10 or 20% in a 12 month period? and does your stop loss on this spit you out and you renter the market at the bottom again?[/QUOTE]
NITA I do sell a house if it is going to lose its value. This does not require me to have no house at all. It is much better to sell up, and buy smething that gains in value. In good times sell at the top and in bad times buy at the bottom. Change houses if need be on the same rung of the ladder to a better proposition but as with anything the brain dead will be there to be exploited. The people that bought into NZO over the last three years other than traders have made nothing. Its good to see you starting to wake up to the weight of the parcel which is getting quite light of late. Macdunk
You sound exactly like my husband. He always say, sell at the top, buy at the bottom. Needless to say hes not a specialist in investing in stocks.
I think MD its time to give yourself a good poke in the eye. sorry to dissapoint but i doubt many posters on here that brought 3 years ago still exist. simply because nzo hasnt done it for them. The ones who brought before or after may be laughing. I know you got your pants caught short with NZO and perhaps the only one to hold a grudge for so long. Im not going to go into why you brought so high and so low....ops sorry there.... but you got NZO wrong my dear friend.. its time to get over it already.
Heres a good opportunity to pick your 5 best stocks for nz this year. Personally i dont care if you hold or not but with your 30 day moving averages, couple with your time lines and the flip of a double headed coin (always calling tails) you should be able to take out the 2008 easy. But then i again, i dont expect you to show your hand as it makes you vunerable.
Sorry MD, I have seen your tpye over and over again and although you have foold some on here you havent fooled me.
You sound exactly like my husband. He always say, sell at the top, buy at the bottom. Needless to say hes not a specialist in investing in stocks.
I think MD its time to give yourself a good poke in the eye. sorry to dissapoint but i doubt many posters on here that brought 3 years ago still exist simply because nzo hasnt done it for them. The ones who brought before or after are laughing. I know you got your pants caught short with NZO and perhaps the only one to hold a grudge for so long. Im not going to go into why you brought so high and so low....ops sorry there.... but you got NZO wrong my dear friend.. its time to get over it already.
Heres a good opportunity to pick your 5 best stocks for nz this year. Personally i dont care if you hold or not but with your 30 day moving averages, coupled with your time lines and the flip of a double headed coin (always calling tails) you should be able to take out the 2008 easy. But then i again, i dont expect you to show your hand as it makes you vunerable.
You have the opportunity to prove to me and to the others that you know better than most. Show us your hand MD.
ps. What is the status with your porperties. Since you would sell if the market goes south say 10 next year do you intend to sell? Of course if the market goes north as per the last few years its a no brainer to buy more properties. Whats your call. Hopefully this time i can see if you are made of jelly or viagra.
Uts time to front up MD.....If not then all its showing is your full of gas again and again
The last time i posted five stocks in a row was in the ASX stock picking competition. I was holding four out of the five at the time . MCR, SMY, AGM, SMM. Sold SMM at $5-95 and agM at $1-05. MCR and SMY are srill over 100 percenters for the year. I was second in the competition one month and first in another. I am also in the NZX competition so look them both up, i dont invest in NZ so am not bothered. Whats you guys records then ?. I dont see either one of you ever being big enough to enter anything so until such times as you do i will reserve judgement. macdunk
I guess its not viagra that hes made of...i rest my case.