In response to Young Frankenstein's DCF
Firstly: I congratulate you on giving it a go and posting your thoughts for all to see.
A couple of things that I feel need addressing and re-working.
Now:
1. Calculating Free Cash Flow.
For Y2014 you have $36M340
so for Y2013 you picked $31M878 which I assume you arrived at by subtracting Net Investing Cash Flows of $190M340 from Net operating cash flows of $222M218
Now that same sum for Y2012 will give you -$13M005
and for Y2011 you get $19M957.
So is that $36M a good starting point? It may be an extreme value.
2. Continuing Free Cash Flow
Consider this:
If half of your incoming operating cash flow comes from selling new units then if you suddenly stop selling new units your incoming operating cash flow suddenly halves as well.
This may well cancel out the equally sudden reduction in investing cash flow and your free cash flow is unchanged.
I would suggest that your assumptions here are seriously flawed and that you need to do a more detailed analysis of cash flows, particularly in a no growth situation.
This will hopefully give you a lower current value for your scenario.
I am sure that the market is assuming that Ryman will continue to grow beyond six years and thus should have a higher value than you.
Once you have cracked that you can have more fun splitting out the aged care from the retirement units for an even better understanding.
Best Wishes
Paper Tiger