Probably the same reason why Oceania have borrowed $0.5 billion
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I still can't believe that they only had 61 new sales in first half year
Thats 40 less than same period last year and half the number they sold in pcp2021
They were even selling more new ORAs in 2018
The numbers don't seem to reconcile with the words and images in their reports.
Hey Maverick
Have you noticed that they have stopped breaking sales prices of villas, apartments and care suites between new sales and resales - now only show a combined (new plus resales) figure.
Something they don't want us to see? But it pisses me off when they continually keep changing how they report things.
Never mind, its a wet day today so I'll do my own restating of past numbers to keep a trend I monitor up to date.
I don't think it is of great concern at this stage. Six months is too short a period to positively identify a trend. Winter is always a time for depressed sales. Also the lead time for elderly to sell their house, then sign up for licence to occupy extended due to the interest rate increases, slowing down the purchasers of their home. It takes a little time to get used to accepting a lower price for your house. But it will not stop them selling, as they have very little alternatives. You have to remember elderly just don't have the time as a younger person would to hold fire until better prices may come around the corner. The next full year results will be more telling and then the six months after will define a trend much better.
I think probably the six months ended 30 September were the worst six months for purchasers of dwellings to make decisions to go ahead with purchase or wait.
Hi Winner, nice to hear from you.
Yep, I'm totally with you on that. Everyone has always complained about how complicated and that too much stuff was in their reports but Ive always loved their detail. I guess they are just aligning it with the other guys as none of them break it down either.
Personally I'm a bit disappointed they've done it but like you we just have to adapt.
I'm ok about care suites new and resale prices lumped together. The condition and price of a care suite new or second hand are as good as identical anyway, in fact last HY the second hand C/S where dearer than new C/S by $23k.
Villas dont really matter as they dont really make new villas anyway.
On thinking about it apartments are kind of like the care suites where a second hand Remuera rise apartment is going to be dearer than a brand spanker Awatere one so I guess eventually they all may as well get mixed together I suppose. The teased out detail becomes irrelevant for any practical purposes. Exception being 1HY24 new Helier sales- they will skew things for sure. Hopefully they'll strip those ones out just for fun.
Interestingly The second hand apartment prices would have been really skewed anyway by some resale's soon to start flowing from Browns Bay ( remember a couple originally sold for $2.6 m which are statistically due to recycle as second hand in a couple of years) . Then some in this lot will be "Remuera rise "resale's almost certainly going for more than $1m. So I guess on reflection they may as well amalgamate it all. Second hand care suits and apartments are always going to be as good as the new ones anyway.
BTW , I'm still beavering away in the background on the drop off in APARTMENT NEW SALES which killed any growth in this HY underlying profit. I'm really gutted about that as we were all set to demonstrate good profit growth. How many more times can I tell my wife ..." next time"?
Got some good leads I'm working through and so far I'm happy with about 3-4 acceptable reasons I've found but its too important of an issue to just hope she`ll come right.
BTW I do agree with you Bottom feeder on your good post above , That is one factor defiantly in the mix.
Thanks Mav for those comments. Must be a bit of a worry if you have to keep telling your wife that future is bright and it's just a matter of weathering the current storm.
F123 Underlying NPAT was $266k less than last year. Realised Gains from resales were up $5.8m ($3.0m impact from selling more and $2.8m impact of better prices and margins) but Development Margin on new stuff was down $2.6m (the impact of selling less was $6.0m partially offset from a $3.4m favourable impact of higher prices/margins)
So ORA/Property activity was actually $3.2m than last year but other stuff which I call the day to day 'Operating Surplus' was $2.9m
worse than last year. This Operating Surplus over the years has been positive but lately it has turned negative. The $3.2m difference from last year (negative) isn't obvious as to the cause - I'm just assuming its the impact of all those things like higher wages, govt fees shortfall etc etc ..... but we wouldn't want to see it getting worse would we.
Overall lets hope the new sales problem is just a 'timing' difference andthe next couple of halves will be the really great.
OCA any is too many
It's great to get down in the weeds but ultimately none of this really matters. Everything will be sold eventually and resales will occur eventually.
The big picture is that the float has compounded since May 2016 through September 2022 at 25.5%.
I can tell you with certainty that a business model like this would interest Buffett immensely.