Call me a sceptic but when I see a reasonable amount of selling pressure a few days before results are published it usually indicates some bad news being leaked out somewhere.
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Call me a sceptic but when I see a reasonable amount of selling pressure a few days before results are published it usually indicates some bad news being leaked out somewhere.
Try a YTD correlation with XRO, much of the NZX Scitech sector has been dragged down by XRO performance or lack thereof. I’m not sure ATM really belong within the Scitech now that the product is more accepted as mainstream dairy, however, such short term moves often offer investors buying opportunities Harrie, what does your fundamental research and your DCF tell you.
Just a quick look at the chart on Stocknessmonster shows the 10 day and 30 day MA's crossing upwards, breaking a medium term downtrend.
http://www.stocknessmonster.com/
Like you MAC, I work purely on fundamental analysis, however this can only be based on information at hand. At the moment we have no quantifiable results only supposition and anecdotal evidence. I'm there because I believe that A2 will continue to grow market share, however these are the possible risks I see in the short term which is probably driving the perception that the A2 price got way ahead of its self in the $0.90's
1. Lion temporarily took a hit out of A2 with misleading advertising
2. The UK market has not really fired
3. The Chinese market has only just got underway but its probably been costly and unproven.
4. Nothing is happening in the US market of any great significance
5. Revenue growth in Aussy and market share could be optimistically portrayed although the CEO has been making optimistic overtures on growth there.
6. The trustees of Milford have probably given the management a wrap over the knuckles for such a high exposure to a relatively small company by capitalisation and told them to pull their head in?
By the way MAC, I value your input, you have a pretty good hold on things and an intimate knowledge of the company and its business.
I'm wondering how associated you are with it other than being a simple investor?
Happy to disclose for you Harrie since you did ask, I’m a humble shareholder of the A2 Milk Company, I’ve been researching the company for around two years and have been a holder for a similar duration. I like to compare notes with others some of which never makes this thread, there are some folk that don’t like to share information with undeserving knockers. I travelled to Auckland for the last AGM and was lucky in meeting a couple of people with a similar interest in both FA and the company. No other association whatsoever.
I find Brian Gaynor and the Milford analysts to be generally reasonably informed and I am long term fairly bullish also. At the end of the day it’s best to DYOR, although I do believe buying by some selected institutions does offer corroboration, David Mair buying also a good sign, don’t you think ?
Thanks MAC, but as I said I didn't expect an answer actually, but thanks for giving one anyway.
Do you have any view on why the SP has fallen by around 35% from its high?
Given that the shareholding among the top 50 shareholders does not appear to have changed, I can only suspect that this has happened with the shorter term traders taking profits, or maybe a few stop losses have been triggered. Its not a particularity liquid share so small volume can obviously move price reasonably widely.
There also seems to have been a trend recently to move to dividend paying stocks possibly as a defensive move as the market hit new highs.
There does not appear as far as we know any change in the ATM's fundamentals.
I'm a long term investor so probably not the right person to ask, volatility doesn't always need a reason often only sentiment or correlations. Stock picking wins out at the end of the day, always has for me at least, Ben has it right;
Graham wrote that the owner of equity stocks should regard them first and foremost as conferring part ownership of a business. With that perspective in mind, the stock owner should not be too concerned with erratic fluctuations in stock prices, since in the short term, the stock market behaves like a voting machine, but in the long term it acts like a weighing machine.
8,000,000 just went through.