According to that commentator, A2 "specialises in distributing mysterious probiotic-laden milk products". Not perhaps great analysis?
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So what's happening right now?
Daily RSI was massively oversold and there hadn't been a rally in weeks. For a trader this rally was expected. We are now looking for a daily lower high to be set, which would be confirmed by loss of the hourly uptrend.
We are still in a daily/weekly/monthly downtrend, so the overall trend has not changed and an uptrend from here is not the most likely case.
Disc: trading, but not holding overnight positions due to news risks.
Sure, while it hurts to see what happened with COVID situation, its probably big wake up call for Board and Management not to be complacent and that's big negative from me on both Geoff and Peter not to have plan B in place if things went astray.
From new CEO David's point of view, he's great opportunity to revamp company's strategic direction to better prepare for further shocks. Let's see if he can be successful in steering the ship smoothly and for long term.
Points as pertinent today as it was in Feb :
"....... they've got probably one of the strongest brands in the region and a really unique differentiator. It is actually turning into more of a reopening play. If the stars are aligned for them, it could represent some compelling value in the future. It could also fit nicely into a larger FMCG portfolio, so M&A activity couldn’t be ruled out."
" .....there's been a valuation that is a bit difficult to overcome; concerns around product and geographic concentration and the regulatory risk has been too onerous for us."
" ....On the operating side, they're having to lean further into demand generation investment, which has probably been lacking over the past few years. They've had the luxury of effectively free marketing from a very engaged and motivated army of Daigou. You could argue that they've essentially been over-earning and under-investing in marketing. They're also going to have to provide more support in terms of trade spend with corporate Daigou, but this one may be more of a permanent cost impost."
" ....the structures are there for performance to improve. But unfortunately, a lot of this relies on factors outside of their control. The one thing they can control is capital allocation to brand and channel. It is likely that they will have to bear more pain in the short to medium term as invest to fend off stiffer competition from domestic producers. This investment is key to driving future success, but it will likely take some time*."
All eyes on the reset strategy announcement from the new CEO!
* Something Jayne was advocating but got shot down, and then told to pack her bags.
Every boring NZ ETF investor (including me) is cheering on ATM. It's been a bit of a drag on NZG and FNZ. I think our share market must have under performed just about every market, developing and developed, since the beginning of the year.
I had thought of $ 8.50 as my trigger to come in and then every 10 cents down more additions ....But I got scared after the authoritative discourses of BBB ...
But its still nice to see ATM contributing after a long while to people's happiness ...Me hold thru KFL and NZG ...:p