whoops was using the ASX total. Have popped a far better tracking table in above.
5,149,561 @ 396,120 per day
Over five items faster than required. At this rate it might be finished by year end.
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gosh the daily numbers are all over the place. very unorderly
Jeez a down day yesterday …..in spite of them buying 100k of 131k on both NZX and ASX
Need to do better than that to keep the price going up
Oh its very orderly if your the brokers... :t_up::t_up::t_up:
Oh yes its the BB of the century ... its the BB when your not having a BB...
Its UP and DOWN.... get with the BEAT ...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hlv672jqbtE
Oh its very orderly if your the brokers...
its going swimmingly ...
like this swimmingly...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Te3_VlimRw0
Sharks baby... coming to get you.....
Just how did we ***K this up so bad....
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LtFyP0qy9XU
Hear the Hoot N Holler ...
https://www.youtube.com/shorts/VV7nE4BrzRw
be first ....
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ag14Ao_xO4c
Seeing MHJ shareprice possibly being supported by the buyback I thought I had better have a closer look at the F22 peformance to get a better grip on what a realistic value is.
One issue with MHJ reports is that they tend to embellish the narrative, to the extent that no matter what the result is its aways very good or solid. Suppose you'd expect jewellers to put a shine and sparkle on things so don't blame them.
I've had a look at their segment reporting for F22 - ie Australia, NZ and Canada along with Corporate (whatever that includes but assume to be a lot of central costs etc)
My view of performance in table below - like how they improved EBIT by $6.564m (using the real numbers and none of this Comparable rubbish)
Australia
Sales were down 2.8%. Plenty of excuses/reasons for the decline but ABS retail data for the sector that jewellery is included in was up 12% in year to June. MHJ not that flash?
That sales decline impacted Gross Profit by $5.4m but the impressive increase in %age margin had a favourable $11.2m impact. Gross Profit overall increased by $5.8m
Expenses increased by $16.9m (13%) which means Australia EBIT was $11.1m lower
Autralia summary: Great margin % increase but more than offset by disappointing sales and much higher expenses saw lower profits in F22. Looking forward hard to see F23 sales growing much and can that record GM% be maintained? Expenses cant afford to go much higher. F23 outlook is possible flat or lower profit
New Zealand
Sales were 0.9% lower than pcp which probably is much in line how sector performed. the lower sales had an impact of $0.7m but higher GM% had an $1.8m impacted resulting in Gross Profit being up $1.1m
Like Australia expenses seemed to be an issue being $5.9m (15%) higher. This meant NZ EBIT was $4.7m lower than F21
So NZ sales basically flat but improved margins and much higher expenses. Looking forward hard to see much sales grwoth so margins and expense management important to maintain current levels of profitability.
Canada
Sales up 40.4% which generated $30.7m of additional GM and improved margins contributed another $6.2m which resulted in Gross Profit being $36.9m higher than F21.
Expenses were $18.6m (31%) higher so F22 EBIT ended up $18.4m higher than pcp.
Looking forward I see continued sales growth and margins being maintained and hopefully expenses not growing as fast as they did in F22. Over expect to see higher EBIT in F23
Corporate
Whatever this covers they contributed $4.0m to the higher F22 EBIT. Significant becasue thats 61% on the total increase.
It does seem a shame that $44m more Gross Profit only generated by the three countries only resulted in $2.5m extra EBIT - impact of all those additional expenses (exc Corporate)
So that's how I see last years performance. Future all depends on Canada and hoping Australia and NZ don't do too much damage
Pity they have ceased quarterly reporting as have to wait until January to hear how things are going
In Rawz lingo previous post is (sorry mate)
Australia - sell less and make heaps less
NZ - sell a bit less and make heaps less
Canada - sell heaps more and make quite a bit more
Net result of these three is sell quiet a bit more and make slightly more profit
Good stuff W69. I like your post. You started it with trying to get a realistic valuation, what did you come up with?
Dont suppose you have any inkling into how the corporate welfare impacted FY21 EBIT. Like FY22 GP up but EBIT down because of out of control expenses and poor management??? Or??
There was $12m less covid grants in F22 than F21 which accounts for some of the increase in expenses
I'm trying to estimate what expenses look like as they return to normal .... haven't come up with a value yet
One thing its cool to see a lot of the $40m corporate welfare they got over covid (was it all really needed?) being put to good use bybuying their own shares back -- one way of transferring government money to shareholders.
Its so hard reading the MHJ report. Constant restating, comparable this and that. Seems whenever a new report comes out i must update my historic numbers in my spreadsheet. whats the point, probably change next year. so annoying. dont know what to believe.
Anways LEK posted an article the other day that said its better to compare FY22 to FY19.
This is because FY21 had the covid retail boom and FY20 was a write off.
So the performance from FY19 TO FY22 in same currency looks like this:
Australia
Revenue= -2% decline
GP = 2.5% growth
EBIT= 59% growth
'Sell less make lots more'
New Zealand
Revenue= 4.2% growth
GP= 8.6% growth
EBIT= 25% growth
'Sell bugger all more make a decent amount more'
Canada
Revenue= 20%
GP= 28%
EBIT= 194%
'Sell heaps more make heaps more'
The sales performance is meek in Aus and NZ however that was all part of their strategy. Sell less but do more. Close brick and mortar stores and move more to online. Drop the gimmicky sales and focus on margins. Job done.
Aus and NZ now need to grow in line with GPD and spit out cash.
Canada wow what growth! This is the growth engine of MHJ and can double in size to match the size of Aus. Plenty of room until Canada MHJ is mature in nature like its Aus and NZ counterparts.
EBIT FY22 vs FY21
Statutory (group)
FY22 $73,236m UP 9.8% from FY21 $66,672m
Comparable (group)
FY22 $62,869m UP 11.1% from FY21 $56,592m
So overall the EBIT pcp growth is fine. Just relax folks. Canada has this. There is a buyback, yes it maybe supporting the SP, there is no debt, they are still looking at bolt on acquisitions. there is a lot to like and i see no reason to be selling the couple of shares i hold. And while holding ill collect a nice dividend of 50-75% of profits.
Winner , Grinner ......
:cool:
"Better to be first ..."
Its a classic Managed BB.....
And the retail investor isnt invited until the deal is done...
10,000+ lost trading days due to covid closures in past year, the equivalent of 1 entire month of store closures company wide, provides a large backwind for current year growth (assuming we dont see the same again fingers crossed).
Australia / corporate includes Jewellery making for the entire global operation right? So increasing sales (eg Canada) would possibly lead to some increase in expenses in Australia. Not sure, just speculating on the setup there.
Sold there them shares !!!!
Round em up ....
Bib them YUUUUPPP
Sell hem down!!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U_VbwZsYPwY
Slow day - no buyback activity yet. Cant complain at the flat share price when the market is down 1.5% I suppose.
Its under valued!!!!!
:t_up:
go on buy some!!!
Buy the DIIIIPPPP!
:eek2:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nFGEkTyrQaM