Well that didn't take long to find. Here you are: http://cgi.ebay.ch/BLIS-K12-LUTSCHTA...-/200446683863
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Well that didn't take long to find. Here you are: http://cgi.ebay.ch/BLIS-K12-LUTSCHTA...-/200446683863
You may be right, Bobby. I have certainly seen these sorts of things before:
http://cgi.ebay.ch/BLIS-K12-80St-Kau...item2a056f5a69
http://cgi.ebay.ch/Blis-K12-Throad-G...item3a58b58dad
http://www.toothbleaching.ch/product...13&language=en
But I don't recall seeing this Bio-Kick before. Hard to say about the packaging, as it looks like it might be quite a physically small product, and you can't tell what is appropriate in other cultures always. I was drawn by the phrase, "each lozenges contains not less than one hundred million viable cells", which has been on all Blis products one way or another. Plus the existence of a dedicated web site area. Plus the "strong" product to match. Also, your link above has "Blis K12" as a label (which packet otherwise appears to be identical to the Bio-Kick) and mentions Blis Technologies as the manufacturer, but does not really seem to contain the tablets we get in our Blis products. Also, both only appeared in the last few days.
So, my instincts tell me this is indeed a new product launch. But I could not say for sure.
They look like the "chewing gum" tablets from the original version of the bad breath kit. Don't think these are marketed in any current Blis product, and are quite possibly expired. The package looks very much like a re-sealable plastic bag! I doubt Blis would endorse any such packaging for their products.
Too, I am influenced by the last report saying, "other business opportunities identified in Europe ... which it anticipates will generate initial sales in the current financial year." Given the difficult regulations in Europe, it was puzzling how they would do that, but Switzerland seems a possible solution perhaps, since it is not in the EU?
Not sure you aren't being a bit harsh about the packaging! Don't they possibly look like those small breath mint packages? And, while the tablets do possibly resemble the old chewing gum, the contents are listed as, "Lozenges: Isomalt, Streptococcus Salivarius K12 (each lozenges contains not less than one hundred million viable cells), Tabletting Aids, Spermit Flavor."
Hard to say, and, of course, we may never hear for sure either way.
Both toothbleaching.ch and lab-avenue.com domains are registered to the same "person", a "Walter Bernardi".
And on the same site, Bobby. Hard to say what this page proves either way: http://www.toothbleaching.ch/index.php?cPath=24
I'm still inclined to see this as a development.
Not every country bothers with fancy wasteful packaging. If I had the choice I would rather buy these products in a plain brown paper bag than a boxed, plastic container!
These products are ThroatGuard Daily and ThroatGuard Boost under a different name. Even the ingredients match the ingredients on Throat Guard Daily.
I don't think we need to get too excited about these new products but as usual I can't imagine it hurting Blis's revenues.
Updated products list.
Shall I keep posting updates or is it all getting a bit much?
K12:
Natures Plus - Adult's Ear, Nose & Throat Lozenges with K12 Probiotics -- Tropical Cherry
http://www.naturesplus.com/products/...54&category=28
Natures Plus - Animal Parade® Children's Chewable Inner Ear Support
http://www.naturesplus.com/products/...49&category=12
Swanson - Ultra Oral Probiotic
http://www.swansonvitamins.com/SWU519/ItemDetail?n=0
Imagenetix - Bioguard
http://bioguardhealth.com/
Solaray - Oral Flora
http://www.smartbomb.com/slr12698.html
VegLife - Ear, Nose & Throat Shield
http://www.vitaminlife.com/product-e...+Throat+Shield
LEF - Advanced Oral Hygiene
http://www.lef.org/Vitamins-Suppleme...l-Hygiene.html
Biogenesis - Pro Flora Oral Health Chewables
http://www.bio-genesis.com/productpa...al-health.html
Epoca
http://www.takachanmarket.com/produc...oduct_id=17325
Healthy Directions - Ear, Nose & Throat Defense
http://drsinatra.net/Products2.aspx?ProductID=BL12
True Botanicas - True Defense for Kids™
http://www.truebotanica.com/store/pr...seforKids.aspx
True Botanicas - True Defense for Adults
http://www.mytruedefense.com/index.htm
Cultured Care - Probiotic Gum
http://culturedcare.com/
KSS66
http://www.leonbio.com/goods.php?id=2
Bio-Kick Throat Shield Daily (rebranded Blis Throat Guard Daily)
http://www.lab-avenue.com/product_in...37&language=en
Bio-Kick Throat Shield Strong (rebranded Blis Throat Guard Boost)
http://www.lab-avenue.com/product_in...38&language=en
KForce
Aktiv-k12
Blis Throat Guard Daily
http://blis.co.nz/?go=Consumers&c=BL...at-Guard-Daily
Blis Throat Guard Boost
http://blis.co.nz/?go=Consumers&c=BL...at-Guard-Boost
Blis Travel Guard
http://blis.co.nz/?go=Consumers&c=BL...p=Travel-Guard
Blis Bio Restore
http://blis.co.nz/?go=Consumers&c=BL...&p=Bio-Restore
Blis Fresh Breath Kit
http://blis.co.nz/?go=Consumers&c=BL...esh-Breath-Kit
Blis Rapid Eze Gargle
http://blis.co.nz/?go=Consumers&c=BL...pid-EZE-Gargle
M18:
Natures Plus - Animal Parade® Tooth Fairy™ Children’s Chewable Dental Probiotic
http://www.naturesplus.com/products/...48&category=12
Natures Plus - Adult’s Dental Care Probiotic Lozenges - Peppermint
http://www.naturesplus.com/products/...83&category=22
Includes K12 and M18:
Natures Plus - Whole Food Total Body Cleanse with Açai (Vegetarian Capsules)
http://www.naturesplus.com/products/...uctNumber=1120
Natures Plus Ultra Lipoic™ Bi-Layered Mini-Tab
http://www.naturesplus.com/products/...24&category=29
Natures Plus Ultra Lipoic™ Bi-Layered Tablets
http://www.naturesplus.com/products/...20&category=29
Natures Plus Ultra Probiotics Vegetarian Capsules
http://www.naturesplus.com/products/...uctNumber=4385
Natures Plus POWER TEEN® For Him Chewable Multi - Wild Berry
http://www.naturesplus.com/products/...02&category=11
Natures Plus POWER TEEN® For Her Chewable Multi - Wild Berry
http://www.naturesplus.com/products/...04&category=11
Natures Plus POWER TEEN® Immune Booster Chewable Multi - Wild Berry
http://www.naturesplus.com/products/...06&category=11
Natures Plus Source of Life® GOLD Tablets
http://www.naturesplus.com/products/...11&category=15
Natures Plus Source of Life® GOLD Vcaps
http://www.naturesplus.com/products/...16&category=15
Natures Plus Source of Life® GOLD Mini-Tabs
http://www.naturesplus.com/products/...14&category=15
Natures Plus Source of Life® GOLD Energy Shake - Tropical Berry (available in two product formats (can or packet))
http://www.naturesplus.com/products/...48&category=15
I think the list is helpful, Emearg, and worth doing. Maybe condense the display a little by (1) hide the links, (2) sort by manufacturer, (3) add in the dates as a record from my post on page 79?
If you want to do that, you can merge the names and the links into one with this code: [url=http://www.sharetrader.co.nz]Sharetrader Forum[/url], as also explained on the BB Code link at the bottom of each of these forum pages.
Thus:
Natures Plus - [url=http://www.naturesplus.com/products/productdetail.asp?criteria=search&searchVar=49254& productnumber=49254&category=28]Adult's Ear, Nose & Throat (Feb 09)[/url], [url=http://www.naturesplus.com/products/productdetail.asp?criteria=search&searchVar=29949& productnumber=29949&category=12]Animal Parade® Children's Chewable Inner Ear (Dec 08)[/url], ...
Is displayed:
Natures Plus - Adult's Ear, Nose & Throat (Feb 09), Animal Parade® Children's Chewable Inner Ear (Dec 08), ...
Just a suggestion. (Sorry if it's work!)
Thank you Emearg for the great job you do with this list - it would be helpful if you could identify the new products that are listed, as there are so many now that my brain cannot keep track them (all good news of course for Blis). I ordered more of the Natures Plus Adult's Dental Care Probiotic M18 lozenges tonight as some friends have taken some of my previous order to try for themselves.
Great job Graeme. Keep it up please. It must be a lot of work but it saves me finding "new" products and posting them on here months after you found them. It is an impressive list.
When you add in the probably hundreds of retailers worldwide advertising all these products then it really is such a good story - no idea why the share price does not reflect it at the moment... I can't wait for the full year results.
First of all, I want to say that you guys are doing an excellent job. I think the reason that the share price is not reflecting it, is the fact that blis only receives revenue of a few cents for every blis product sold. This reality is something I first heard from the horse's mouth at their AGM 7-8 years ago - the AGM at which they demonstrated chewing gum for the first time. The product really needs to become ubiquitous before we're going to be making money.
Not entirely sure about that, Weasel. Bobby found this article http://www.moosylvania.com/blog/file...ason+quote.pdf which said "a dose of K12 adds about four US cents to a product, be it a lozenge or a pot of yoghurt", and also, "increase turnover ... to as much as NZ$3 million ... in the current [financial year]." "Per lozenge" changes the maths somewhat, maybe?
Yes, the strategy obviously is to go for large penetration of markets, but maybe they're getting there anyway? There's a lot of products out there already.
I think your list is a useful tool Graeme. At least once it has saved me from declaring "a find", only to discover it was't. It's quite amazing how fast he product list has grown over the last 6 months.
Ok, thanks for the positive responses. I will keep doing it, and at some point will update like Simla suggests. That may not happen straight away, but I will do it when the mood takes me.
I note the GRAS site has been updated in the last day or so with another six notices. Blis isn't one of them.
Yeah the list has grown very quickly. But much of the growth has been from one manufacturer...Natures Plus.
It is great to see so many products come from them but the uptake from others has been less inspiring. Why is that one must wonder?
Changing the subject completely, the Nestle clinical trials should be finishing this month. Positive news from that would be excellent. Did you know that approximately 3.5 billion US dollars are spent annually in the US on antibiotic treatment of acute otis media? Prevention is always better than a cure. Hard to know how significant Nestle will be for Blis, but it seems like it could make everything else look like small beer.
The other issue is margin and they say about K12, "High margin ingredient" here - http://www.blis.co.nz/userfiles/file...March%2009.pdf
For anybody interested in stocking up for winter Radius Pharmacy have Blis Throat Guard Daily on special starting tomorrow. $14.99. Valid until the 18th April.
Every little thing helps...
CulturedCare ProbioticsWe've been nominated for the Canadian Health Food Association's "Spotlight Award For Innovation." THANK YOU to all our retail partners who nominated us (It means a lot)!
http://www.facebook.com/?ref=logo#!/...biotics?ref=mf
New Announcement here - https://www.directbroking.co.nz/Dire...spx?id=2475274
"The Company can report good progress is being made with business development in North America and in other market sectors consistent with its three year commercialisation strategy and will report further information to shareholders with the annual accounts."
The issue of 1,000,000 new options at $1.00 a piece represents a further 6% dilution for holders of ordinary shares (at today's opening prices and following conversion of options to ordinary shares at 25:1), yet the SP rises - up 3% as I write. The extra value of this vote of confidence in the company.
How far through the 3 year strategic plan are they?
The "3 year strategy" is a little ambiguous, as each annual report mentions the board has to look to a 3 year strategy each year. However, perhaps this refers to this in the 2008 annual report, "The implementation and execution of the new business strategy announced in 2007 has been the focus of the company over the past 12 months. The emphasis of this strategy is on the development of key business relationships and the establishment of partnerships with companies with substantial regional and global marketing reach."
Meanwhile, this time: "The Company can report good progress is being made...". Studiously unexciting in it's wording! However, they did not have to say anything at all, and BLT are very sparing with exchange announcements, so maybe that tiny phrase should be taken pretty positively? We'll see. The last half's results came out on the 12th of November, so perhaps the 12th of May this time?
"funds will assist the Company's implementation of its strategy and in particular the commercialisation of the Company's products in New Zealand and in key markets internationally."
"New Zealand"? Might that be for TV ads, perhaps? Or releasing M18 here? Yoghurt even? Interesting to consider.
I'm pleased to see them take up their rights. The dilution I can handle for two reasons
1) Anybody willing to back Blis back in April last year deserves a good reward. This includes us. The fact they got an extra year to see how things are going is fair enough considering how significant their contribution was/is.
2) Blis now has another million in the bank to continue their expansion plans. Perhaps they will even accelerate them? More money to invest in regulatory approvals strikes me as a great thing assuming they have the technical resource to back up the extra spending.
"Good progress"? Yeah right would be one possible response but considering one of the directors has just coughed up another million bucks this statement has credibility.
So, for a change I see this latest news as a good thing :-)
What will happen in NZ? It is hard to say. A M18 product seems like a likely possibility. That said, such a product would make little contribution to the overall turnover company. Considering that M18 products have already been commercialised overseas I'm not sure we need the NZ range of Blis products as a test-bed anymore? I wonder if they are just a distraction? Perhaps Blis should licence their product range to another company who can rebrand them and put some marketing muscle behind them? It could be an exclusive deal? The more Blis outsources the better in my opinion. It keeps overheads down and allows Blis to focus on the science, gaining regulatory approvals, supporting their clients and marketing the ingredients internationally.
K12 making it's way into yoghurt in NZ (and Aussi ideally) would be excellent. Next time I am at the supermarket I must remember to check the labels.
It will be interesting to see the full year results and get a proper update from them.
Will revenue exceed two million to keep me happy?
Will they announce a maiden profit to keep Simla happy?
Will revenue exceed two million to keep me happy? - It will - by at least a million.
Will they announce a maiden profit to keep Simla happy? - Given my statement above it is a given....
Todays announcement is great news despite the dilution in shares.
Firstly it wasn't out of the blue.
Second, what greater vote of confidence could we get?
Third, the news of good progress in their normal (for Blis anyway) understated way bodes well too.
Edinburgh will be privy to knowledge we don't have due to their presence on the board.
All sounds very positive to me.
Just in case it sounded like I was whining about the dilution, let me say that I wasn't - that would have been pretty churlish for the reasons Graeme gives - without Edinburgh its possible there wouldn't be a Blis Tech by now, certainly not one powering ahead as we seem to be. My point was that notwithstanding the dilutive effect of the extra capital, the SP rallied - a confident reaction - the market understands that Edinburgh have inside info. and their option uptake can only be read as a strong positive.
Revenue over $2 million = emearg happy.
Profit = Simla happy.
Dividend = Bobby happy.
I also like that we have a cornerstone shareholder that I believe will be loyal - I would hate to see Blis taken over by some foreign biotech with deep pockets before the real potential unfolds (decades away).
Ah, the D word! Well, each 0.1 cents per share would cost $138,000. You'd have thought a token dividend was hardly impossible, whether now or in November, if they have really got some decent turnover. Pretty hard for us to judge at this stage. Meanwhile, they are paying $400,000 a year in dividends anyway - to the prefs, 10% on $4m now.
I didn't think you were whinging BF. But as this is a forum you are completely entitled to if that is how you feel! All opinions welcome!
The 400k in preference share dividends will almost certainly nuke the chance of the ordinary shares getting a dividend. Just my opinion but if I was a betting man...
The 400k in preference share dividends may well nuke the chance of a maiden profit. No bets from me on this but it is a possibility for sure.
And what would make me happy if Blis were to report a profit? I said previously that I have been a continued supporter of Blis over the years because I believe in their products. Blis and their shareholders deserve to be finally rewarded for their patience ... and I would be right chuffed to see the naysayers, sneerers and knockers of this great little NZ company proved wrong!
More from Stuff -
The $4m would largely go into product marketing and getting through regulatory hurdles for the sale of products overseas, Mr Richardson said.
Blis was working with Food Standards Australia and New Zealand and approval was already in place for the addition of its K12 oral health probiotic (which contains beneficial bacteria) into foods.
Blis was making progress on sales of around 20 oral health and immune-based products in the United States market, Mr Richardson said.
"We're on target to have all the products launched by the end of March."
He was also working with the Food and Drug Administration on the K12 product to enable it to become a "food ingredient provider" in the US.
http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/3524...ra-1m-for-Blis
That article on Stuff, said some interesting things, following an interview with the CEO apparently.
"Blis was working with Food Standards Australia and New Zealand and approval was already in place for the addition of its K12 oral health probiotic (which contains beneficial bacteria) into foods." Wow. Yoghurt into Australia and/or NZ is one thought that might come to mind. But who knows?
"Blis was making progress on sales of around 20 oral health and immune-based products in the United States market, Mr Richardson said...We're on target to have all the products launched by the end of March." Seems like maybe there is still something due out very soon maybe?
"Costco – the third largest retailer in the United States – was undertaking trial sales of its products in 50 stores in the Pacific West region, including Seattle, he added." Is the trial completed or not then?
Yes, Brucea, I agree that it is due for hard working Blis to get some recognition from its own country.
Yes, simla, I thought it especially interesting that they mentioned the Costco trial again. If it was a complete fizzer, then it would be quietly forgotten. If Barry raised it himself then it's still in play, with the outcome is pending. Since we know it is now off the shelves (maybe we know, unofficially anyway, more than Barry does?), we should not have too long to wait.
As you say, Bobby, there was no need to raise the subject, so that could well be positive. Good point.
Hey, here's a new twist. This article says at the bottom, "Air New Zealand, Queensland Tourism, Blis Travelguard and Southern Cross Travel Insurance assisted the Knills, who are Auckland-based travel writers". http://www.odt.co.nz/lifestyle/trave...and-enjoy-ride
Or, "Dennis and Rosamund Knill were assisted by Air New Zealand, Holland America Line, Blis Travelguard and Southern Cross Travel Insurance." http://www.btob.co.nz/cms/news/2010/...se_control.php
Definitely a vote of confidence from Edinburgh with its new investment. However I wonder if Edinburgh has been given any extra information that helped it making this decision, or did it just decide to invest based on all the information made available by Blis thus far, which is basically nil since the half year results came out in November last year - an information void of about 5 months. Im finding that Blis doesn't really bother with communication. What does everyone else think of its communications?
I can't get over the vagaries of the NZ market at the moment. BLT is on the verge of a maiden operating profit (being at times cashflow positive in the last 6 months and their progress since I think that is a given) and yet investors are still too cautious to put their toe in the water.
Serious analysis should be enough to put the chequered history out of the frame. You have to wonder at the ability of our fund managers.:confused:
Caeser I think their communication leaves something to be desired but at least they are consistent.
I think perhaps BLT give the impression of communicating less than they actually do, by the use of an economical writing style (which I quite like actually.) For example, yesterday's announcement said "good progress", and that's probably exactly what it meant. The full and half year reports have become very full and informative lately - 5 pages of discussion last time. And there have been announcements each time for Frutarom, for Edinburgh, for Costco, GRAS, M18 - all the big things to date. There's always more we would like to know, naturally.
Yep - vagaries is the word.
BLTPA up 20% today - BLT down 7.6%. Go figure...
Why pay $2.80 for BLTPA - that equates to 11.2 cents a share - when you can get the heads for 10 cents.
Their "Economical writing style" drives me potty. What does "good progress" mean? 100% of target, 200% of target. Both could be described as good.
End of rant - thanks for listening...
Winner they might be a 13m company at the moment but its what they should be in 1,2,3 years time that should have them excited. I know fundies tend to be conservative, but taking a punt around the fringes on a no brainer should be on their radar.
Okay, it's the end of the financial year, so here's a teaser...
Say, for the purposes of conversation - and this is entirely hypothetical - that BLT announced a profit of half a million to a million dollars. What would that make the shares worth? All the following are very rounded figures for the sake of conversation. Corrections always welcome.
With 138m shares, half a million is around half a cent a share. With a PE of 15, the shares might value at 6 or 7 cents. With a PE of 25 (a growth stock), they might value at 12 or 13 cents.
Or with a profit of around a million dollars, that is getting closer to a cent a share. With a PE of 15, shares are worth maybe 15 cents. With a PE of 25, they might be getting on to 25 cents.
But wait. BLT announced a loss of around $200,000 last half. Is there any point in including that in the result, as the future comes up? Then a half million profit full year would be $700,000 second half. You MIGHT value it at a full year profit of $1.5m, or two profitable halves then, that is 2 times $700,000 - or 3 times the actual result! Now a profit of $1.5m might value out at 17 to 27 cents.
But wait again. BLT is clearly in a growth phase. Might they double their profit in the coming year based on the information received in the report? Might they then possibly run a profit of $3m in 12 months time? (yes, this is all utter speculation.) Then are the shares worth 30 to 60 cents now?
All based on a profit announcement of a half to a million dollars. Using different maths, the shares then might be worth 6 cents, 12 cents, 15 cents, 25 cents, 30 cents or 60 cents!!
Yes, you're saying "the shares are worth what someone will pay." Quite right. But nevertheless, what would a sane investor be willing to pay? After all, you pay your $100 now for bonds/deposits to pay you your $105 in a year's time. What might a sane person willingly pay now for a share that they thought might be worth over 50 cents in a years time based on information they might receive in a few weeks time? (Again, utter speculation.)
The biggest load of hypothetical twaddle you've read in a while? Quite possibly!
But one thing's for sure: if BLT announces a profit, suddenly there will be figures in the "PE" and "Gross Yield" columns of the share listings. What effect will that have on the share price? More practically, the above hypotheticals boil down to: what PE will the market assign BLT? And what would that mean for the share price if BLT announced a profit of less than half a million?
All of this demonstrates how maths makes it pretty hard to judge BLT's worth, even if we knew the next result. But a PE value WILL be maths. Ideas anyone?
Disclosure for those who can't see the obvious: I own BLT shares! All of the above is total speculation, do not rely on it for any purpose! I put it up just for discussion. What are the shares worth? Ideas?
Interesting scenarios Simla. When will the results be announced?
Should be early May Nigel, going by previous-normally 5-6 weeks after cut-off.
Simla - a picture is worth a 1000 words or something along those lines
Is this what you were saying -
Very clever, Winner69. But you forgot scenario zero where even a PE of 30 might make hard work of a quite small profit.
I honestly have no idea where the share price is headed. I was just making the point that we are waiting to hear the result, but have we any idea what the shares might be worth even after we HAVE heard?
Suggestions anyone?
Nice speculation Simla... But it is not that simple. You need to factor in future directions too like GRAS and new products. They have not announced any for quite a while which is not like them.
One of them is a director so you can count on him knowing a lot more than we do. He will have an eye on how sales/margin/profit (or loss) are tracking against the budget not to mention knowledge about GRAS progress, getting K12 into foods here an in Aussi, the Nestle clinical trials (if the results have come back) etc etc etc
Edinburgh voting with their cash is a great endorsement of progress IMHO
Oh yeah good spotting.
Yes I did consider the easy money element. Buying them was a no brainer unless they need to sell them. There is no way they will be able to off load another million preference share any time soon. The demand isn't there. Even at bargain prices this is true. So, would you invest a million bucks knowing you had pretty much no way of selling most of them and they would be worth next to nothing in the future? Even considering the dividend this would be a bad idea.
I thing this does support the view that Edinburgh thinks the value of the shares (preference and/or ordinaries) will increase much more over the coming years. Why do they think that? The only conclusion is that they DO believe Blis is going in the right direction, and I am sure this has to do with financials rather than vague words.
The full year announcement should be interesting IMHO
Don't forget the Dunedin factor, too. People are pretty public spirited in Dunedin. They were likely pleased to help the company move forward at a time when it is in a position to make constructive use of the money. The great thing about BLT is that it's a chance to profit personally while at the same time helping a worthwhile NZ company get ahead.
Yes, the full year announcement will certainly be interesting. Every previous result from Blis has been subject to particular circumstance, but this time we finally have two results in a row in relatively stable business conditions. At last we should gain some idea of how fast Blis can grow it's market. You're right, Emearg, that the preference dividends are a big hurdle for profit. My gut instinct is that they will have made it over that hurdle, but it's a big ask when compared with the September 2008 sales revenue of just $158,000 - only 18 months back.
A little news though: http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Imagen....html?x=0&.v=1 This was a talk by Imagenetix to analysts.
I don't think you need listen to it to hear more than I've mentioned below, as it was really just a general sales talk to analysts.
They didn't say Bioguard had sold like wildfire, but obviously were not unhappy with it either. Talked about Celadrin a lot more, but still plenty of time on Bioguard. Bioguard was accepted by Costco after the trial, but Costco put it into the "cold & flu" category, which is why it was taken off the shelves. Will be back in July/Aug probably, probably nation wide (I'm fairly sure he said that, but he may have been talking Celadrin at that point.) The firm itself has gained entry to Walmart, and will be taking product in there soon, but not clear if that is Bioguard too or just Celadrin. They are aiming for 6 top chains. They are concentrating on Celadrin and Bioguard for the present, although they have other unrelated developments in the wings. Celadrin made it into Costco via the same 50 store trial, then up to 200 stores, then nationwide next.
So, subject to my listening skills, the news was basically confirmatory of what we thought, and positive of the future from out point of view. Thank you to Jessica for her news to date in her blog, too, a nice lady. We still have no idea of sales volumes, of course.
Meanwhile, Supply Side East is on April 26-28. Will M18 be there perhaps? K12 and the K12 gum were both launched there in the past, I think.
I have noted that BLT sp rise this morning - is this in anticipation of the end of year report which must be due soon?
Thanks Emearg - no, I am not planning to sell - in fact I have never sold any BLT shares. I am in for the long haul.
I am surprised at the non-reaction to the Bioguard snippet of a couple of days ago. It confirms what Jessica kindly told us about a month ago: that the trial was a success at Costco, that it would be withdrawn over the summer as a cold & flu product, would arrive back in next season (Jul/Aug we are now told, only 3 or 4 months away), and was looking to extend into other chains.
Some comments were made at the time of Jessica's news suggesting confidence in my judgment had taken something of a knock. I read the news as meaning that what we had been looking to happen had not happened, and instead this had happened. I interpreted this new version as basically good news anyway, the only bad news being that it was seemingly slower than we hoped, although we do not know the sales volumes which may have been pretty good for all we know. I have looked back at my comments then, and they seem a fair interpretation of what now indeed seems to be the case.
I look to this group for discussion of possible intepretations of publicly available information, that we may make better decisions as investors. As a result of discussions in the past, I am now in a situation with BLT that I am comfortable with, and I value that, thank you. I get the impression that others feel the same. My only claim to adding value to this group is that I am fairly good at research, and that I make fairly logical conclusions most of the time, often from fairly small data, which I almost always back up with references and explanation of my reasonings.
But the Bioguard launch was a discussion here that seemed to just stop in some acrimony when the news changed. As it remains a matter of some interest to the future, may I ask if anyone has any new discussion in light of the recent news on the subject?
Now, now. Don't all speak at once! Well, I'll take it as a sign that the ship of Blis continues to sail pretty true.
We use all this data anad logic to reassure ourselves through a pretty crucial year for the company, as is wise.
Yet, ironically, so many of the best rewards in life are only ever available if we can just bring ourselves to simply trust someone. So many rewards only come when we also take the risk of being hurt.
You really do sound like you are a man in love Simla! Nothing wrong with that of course.
Re your post on Saturday. I don't have anything to say that I haven't already said.
I await the full year result. We will find out how right (or wrong) we are.
Happy happy joy joy :-)
Likewise I have nothing new to say.
Very happy with the progress and expect good news in the end of year report. If I had not bought so many last year at 4 cents I would be buying now at 11 cents.
Thanks, guys.
I noticed the invitation on BLIS website re '...If you are a business and wish to stock the BLIS K12™ product range click here.' There's nothing to click so I contacted Pharmabroker with the intention of marketing BLIS locally.
The curt emailed reply was 'We sell to NZ pharmacies and selected health stores only. Thanks.'
So that's why I never see BLIS at the airport or in supermarkets. Phamabroker is gatekeeping the supply!
You sure have a lot of energy, Oman!
Nice to hear from you again. We seem to be hearing from a few voices not often heard from lately, which is good.
Are we all sensing the same thing: inaugural profit? Followed, further more we hope, by news that just keeps getting better from here on in?
People might care to divide the cost of goods sold by total sales in the 2009 results, which is a nice figure (assuming it's apples with apples), and also work out the costs before production for a possible baseline cost. Feed those figures back into revenues of $2m or higher, and there's potential for pleasant figures, even after pref dividends. Mind you, intellectual property/registration costs seem to be a bit of a wild card, as probably demonstrated by comparing those figures to the last half, plus there can always be other one-up costs.
Any other voices want to chip in their predictions or hopes before what may be the result we've waited a long time for?
Yep - my twopence worth. Blis have a hell of a long way to go before the shares are worth the current 10-11 cents. I hope they get there, but i cannot see it in the near future; that's not to say they won't keep selling at current price or more. They seem to have a bit of a fan-club. Fingers crossed for a miracle I'd say!
No mention of a corner dairy Fungus. Disappointing...
I'm not sure that we entirely disagree with each other, Fungus Pudding. All of our interests would be much reduced if there wasn't much growth still to follow the maiden profit, I'm sure!
I've been following the development of Blis like a hawk for about two years now, to protect my investment.
But no matter what the next results say, Blis hopefully faces a bright and secure future now. There will be a new crowd along to discuss it, and they won't be interested in all this old "will it/won't it" history of ours. It's time to let this old history start to fade away isn't it, and start a new thread?
Any volunteers to start a new BLT thread? I'm a Johnny-come-lately, so I don't feel it should be me. The new thread could still be called "BLT", probably.
What am I hoping we might see in the results, due perhaps in the next 2 or 3 weeks?
First and foremost, I am hoping for clear evidence of the permanence of BLT. Has it finished being a startup and become a trading operation with a certain future? The best evidence of that would be in positive cash flow, preferably for everything including capitalised expenses etc. Failing that, positive cash flow for operations would be good too. Positive cash flow for the last half would be good, and for the full year would be better. Failing positive cash flow, however, profit would also be good. Again full year would be better than half year.
Secondly, I hope to see evidence of what the growth potential might be. We might gain some insight into whether large revenues might come over a few years or over many years.
Only thirdly am I looking for a great profit. That would be great too, as both the first two points will have been well answered in that case. But the first two points will still be good news anyway without a big profit. But I'd certainly take a great profit!
Specific news that would be nice to hear: How did Bioguard go? How has Japan gone? How has CulturedCare gone? What is happening with Nestle? What marketing are end-customers experiencing? What is the reaction of end customers (and manufacturers and retailers)?
Plus, of course, we always hope for that unexpected news that is so often included in BLT releases, and is almost always good. I'm hoping there will be no bad news, obviously, too.
A new thread might be called for - but only after the Annual Report is out IMO. Hopefully we will then have the facts to decide whether this is a start up still or a serious player in their field.
Interesting the lack of confidence on here recently. Quite a turnaround in attitude from 2-3 months ago, and that is reflected in the share price and the number of sellers on the stock market. Over 400,000 for sale at less than 12 cents this close to the announcement is interesting.
I am confident of a strong profit but it is any announcements around futures that really piques my interest. Nestle, yoghurt and future products in general, plus of course M18, which I think is the way of the future.
Not long now...
5c per share
Preference share payout, announced 10.03
Yes, it's strange, as the news on Blis has been good for some time now. I'm not sure it's just this group though, as NZ seems to have lost confidence generally lately. Did it start when they announced the changes to rental property maybe? That affected not only landlords, but knocked on to everyone with a house, via the property market. It's very hard to put your finger on.
At least in a couple of months we will actually know how things have gone rather than just speculating (interesting as that is)
It will be interesting to see how the market reacts depending on the result. If full year revenue doubles should we expect a share price rise or fall? What if it triples? What if there is a loss or profit? Just what is the market expecting?
the problem with blis products is that people try it and most go "ho hum"
the stuff works, but it doesnt seem to have the magic bullet effect as most people hope for,
so they dont buy it anymore.
so when its released into a huge market, yes, there are big sales, so we might doubling of revenues.
the question will be if those revenues are sustained into the future.
their only hope is the ingredience are put into foods or the m18 is added to mainstream toothpaste.
so expect a few speed wobbles with the sp in the near future.
Yes, a lot of people do say that NeopoleII. But a lot of people also become repeat users too, which is enough to sustain the current growth phase, I'd have thought. Certainly the stuff has changed winters in this house a lot - our cupboard is full of the usual winter products that have been sitting unneeded now for a couple of years or so. But yes, a major product like toothpaste or food would set a fire under things for sure.
To respond to Emearg's question on share price (I hope you're not suggesting our guesses are anything but totally accurate, Emearg ...):
As usual, all figures are estimates. Do your own maths. Corrections welcome.
The difficulty with this exact moment is that PE and revenue growth may fight each other mathematically on the share price in the short term. It would not represent any bad news for the company whatsoever, but the maths on them may be a little contradictory just now.
As for PE, a revenue of 2.5m possibly could produce a profit of 0.8m if Blis has fair cost of goods sold (utter guess), but at a PE of 15 that comes to a share price of about 9 cents (with 138m shares.) At revenue of 2m, that same maths might produce a profit of 0.5m, or 6 cents at a PE of 15. Revenue of 3m might produce profit of 1.1m, or 13 cents. At a PE of 30, though, those figures become 12 cents, 18 cents, and 26 cents. (These figures more or less assume pref divs are seen as post-profit, and that registration costs are not growing.) All those estimates of revenue or profit are obviously guesses!
On the other hand, such revenue growth might imply revenue of 5m or more in a year's time, which might produce profit of 2.5m which would give a share price of 27 cents at a PE of 15 (ie treble - not bad growth prospects), because larger revenue starts to neutralise fixed costs more, leading to higher profit growth initially. And that revenue growth doesn't particularly include any new developments, such as Asia expanding or Nestle coming to market or food sales or new product lines. (Neither does it include the complication of where to account for the pref dividends. Also there is the complication of how BLT revenue will go over the non-Northern-winter, although my guess is they have plenty of plans.)
Most likely the market will accommodate the struggle between PE maths and good revenue growth by having a high PE this time around if necessary (if the news look good.) A PE of 30, for example, would obviously turn that 9 cents into 18 cents. It also depends on whether the market is willing to (accurately in my opinion) see the pref dividends as post-profit rather than pre-profit. And this also depends on the market taking more notice of BLT now than they have up till recently!
The difficulty would be if revenue was 2m or less, OR the cost structure was higher than I've guessed here, in which case the net profit could be lowish (assuming there is one!). It would all depend on the actual news at the time, obviously, but second half revenue no higher than first half probably represents the biggest chance of unpredictable result, followed closely by the question of whether costs kept mounting.
So, mathematically, this particular result may be a bit of a singularity as far as share price goes. Which is why I'm instead looking for evidence that the company has reached permanent viability (very likely, surely) and to see what growth might be possible (I'm optimistic, but we cannot currently judge that from the info we have.)
All up, though, it is surely likely to be an excellent set of results for anybody with the slightest long-term outlook, but very hard to say what will happen to the share price in the short term. That said, a ripper set of results would obviously bypass all mathematical difficulties for the price.
So what will happen to the share price? Never mind the maths: yes, there is a chance it will fall, but most likely it will rise because of good news.
"Imagenetix Expands Celadrin(R) to Nation's Leading Retailer" http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Imagen....html?x=0&.v=1
"...can purchase Celadrin® at the nation's #1 warehouse club, the nation's #1 drug store, and now, with this new distribution, in the nation's #1 retailer.". They don't name them, but presumably they mean Costco, Walgreens, and Walmart? "Celadrin® 30 second spots will run on networks like Arts & Entertainment, American Movie Channel, CNN, Food, Fox News, Hallmark, Home & Garden, Lifetime, Lifetime Movie, TBS, TNT, and USA."
No mention of Bioguard, just Celadrin. However, presumably they intend to try to leverage their relationships to take Bioguard with them sometime soon? Remember, Jessica told us "They're also trying to get it into Walmart and Walgreens." http://bioguardinfo.blogspot.com/201...ast-month.html
BLIS Technologies Ltd Receives Major International Business Award
Friday 30th April, 2010
BLIS Technologies Ltd from Dunedin, New Zealand, a biotech company involved in the development of advanced probiotics for the oral cavity, is pleased to announce that it has received the prestigious 2010 Frost & Sullivan Global Entrepreneurial Company of the Year Award in Food and Beverage Ingredients.
Dr Barry Richardson, Chief Executive Officer of BLIS Technologies is delighted to receive this award. He said that it was gratifying to have independent recognition from such a global authority as Frost and Sullivan. He also indicated that this was a strong and solid endorsement of the changes that BLIS Technologies made in its company’s strategic direction back in 2007.
Frost & Sullivan is a highly respected and world leading global enterprise that operates in the areas of business research and consultancy. During 2010, Frost & Sullivan will be entering its 50th year in business as a global research organization. It has 1,800 analysts and consultants based around the world who continuously monitor more than 300 industries and 250,000 companies.
According to Frost and Sullivan, in order for them to select this year’s award recipient for Global Entrepreneurial Company of the Year, analysts from their Best Practices Research group used four criteria to benchmark the performance of BLIS Technologies Ltd against other challengers for the title.
The four performance areas include:
- Growth Strategy Excellence
- Growth Implementation Excellence
- Degree of Innovation with Products and Technologies
- Apt Identification and Response to Market Needs
Candidates for this award are chosen from around the world and BLIS Technologies outscored the other shortlisted companies in all four key performance areas.
In making this award, Frost and Sullivan noted that BLIS Technologies had addressed key industry challenges through concerted research and competent strategies despite an increasing challenging market and the potential competitive threats offered by industry giants such as Danisco, Chr Hansen, and DSM.
The Frost and Sullivan awards banquet was held in the United States on Thursday April 29th 2010.
Excellent news!
So - that answers some of the questions posed recently...
- Growth Strategy Excellence
- Growth Implementation Excellence
- Degree of Innovation with Products and Technologies
- Apt Identification and Response to Market Needs
Ally that to this - According to a survey by ConsumerLab.com of 6,012 consumers in February 2010, probiotics were used by 30.4 percent of respondents, up from 25 percent last year. One-third of women in the survey used a probiotic. Usage has translated into rising sales. Packaged Facts reported sales of probiotic/prebiotic foods and beverages topped $15 billion in 2008, a 13 percent increase over 2007, and projects the market for functional foods and beverages addressing digestive health will top $22 billion in 2013, a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 12 percent between 2004 and 2013.
With all due respect, and with a large dash of humour my feedback would be that your statement is a bit long for a Tui bill board, but the sentiment is there ;-)
In my opinion after the pref dividends are taken into account we will be lucky to see more than a couple of hundred K in profit. But I would be happy with that! I don't mind being proven wrong here Simla, but...
Getting into profit would be very significant for how Blis is perceived by the masses. Right now it is just another Bio-Tech with a bright idea. Once it turns a profit the market will start to reevaluate it.
Hard to see the award as anything but good news. Blis is obviously doing something right to stand out so strongly. Perhaps they are doing more than we know or give them credit for?
Or perhaps some of us (as holders of the shares) do give them credit and the masses aren't quite getting the picture?
Or perhaps both Simla and I have been drinking too much Tui to go with the new billboard? ;-)
Happy happy joy joy (and for those of you who DO actually think I'm drunk...I'm not!)
Hey guys, I was curious about Frost & Sullivan as I have never heard of this company; I googled and found the following blog which has quite unfavourable comments about the awards http://billanddave.wordpress.com/200...ullivan-award/ Maybe it was written by disgruntled employees, but nevertheless makes one think about the value of these awards.
I forgot to add that I read that Frutarom had won a F & S category a year or so ago - maybe that is the connection ....
well, this latest award is indeed great news!
but..........
with being bestowed with such a great award, you would think that intelligent investors all over the world would be prudent to take a small to medium holding in such an award winning company like blis. if this was truely a prestigious and recognised award the sp should rise big time....... what with a sp of around 7 cents US
not trying to put a downer on things.......... but over the last ten years....... good news never seems to add up to much.
not until blis ingredience ends up in mainstream foods will blis take off......... and it will be one incredible rocket ride when it does.
until then......................
show me the money!........ profits.
................ ingredience?..............
...................
Costs for the last half were 1080k. That might have been: 650k underlying, 230k cost of goods, 200k legal/registration. If so, then any profit for the year will heavily depend on revenue growth versus legal/registration costs. That's guesswork though. (I persist in seeing the pref costs as post-profit - they are shares, whereas real debt is an ongoing cost and also needs paying back.)
It's no secret that some companies that hand out awards hope to benefit from doing so. But that link nevertheless said this award is based on merit.
This company most certainly deserves an award like this. Great products, great implementation. Well deserved.