It would be a fool who claimed to know what the future holds for CNU (there are bound to be some such fools around - David whatisname? anyone else?). Even those who will tell you with great certaintly that CNU has got everything going against it - Sparkyabove? have a 50% chance of being wrong, and 50% is unacceptably high for most sharemarket punters...Uncertaintly causes aversion from risk.
But yet - how often when you look back do you say to yourself if only I had bought when the it all seemed so dark and gloomy at the bottom?
If the government rescues them, which it says it will, and they thus sustain and improve their dividends (they say if the gov't does the right thing then their second half dividend will be much higher than their first) and they will be the champion yielders on the NZX, rather ahead than even TEL.
Theoretically you are supposed to multiply the possible reward by the probability of it happening then compare that to other shares...
So if the reward is 15cps tax free second half dividend times 50% chance of that happening over say $2.90 shareprice times 2 to get to a full year....gives you a return of about 5.1%....adjust for full imputation and you get to about 7% being a bit conservative....
How many NZ shares yield 7% gross dividend? Not that many. How serious do you think the government is in pushing UFB? I think they are quite serious...so I'm holding onto my CNU in the hope of seeing custard streaming down the face of the naysayers later this year. And there's no more enjoyable experience than that :-)
You can argue that what is good for CNU is bad for TEL (input cost) and vice versa (revenue gain for CNU) and therefore if you have an equal value of TEL and CNU then you are well hedged...a great feeling. However, personally, I think I would rather put the extra money into the next best return somewhere...