Maybe Jacinda became Labour Leader two weeks too early. Is the honeymoon with the electorate now over and the veil has been lifted to reveal the same Labour Party that the electorate already knew previously? Has Jazz-cinda become Just-cinda?
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Maybe Jacinda became Labour Leader two weeks too early. Is the honeymoon with the electorate now over and the veil has been lifted to reveal the same Labour Party that the electorate already knew previously? Has Jazz-cinda become Just-cinda?
I quoted from this a week or so ago - you can't trust polls
https://www.johnkay.com/2017/06/07/f...opinion-polls/
Quota sampling is not the same as random sampling from a population. Rather, it uses a model to estimate from the answers which are received what the answers would have been if the people giving answers had been a random selection from the population. Modern pollsters know that their sample is not in any sense random, and now use sophisticated and complex models to adjust for their failure to achieve randomness. But this confronts the pollsters, and those who want to use their results, with the problem that Mr Viniar had failed to recognise: the probability derived from the model has to be compounded with the probability that the model is itself true. And we have no means of deriving the latter probability, or indeed of attaching meaning to such a probability.We can usefully say things like “the pollsters are very experienced”, or “the model has worked well in the past”. But these are statements about confidence and judgement, not about probabilities.
For Labour, it looks like a temporary blip deflating. Jacinda will be in a world of hurt, such a rapid rise in popularity but stealing the water <=> support from ANY farmer. Taxing everything to pay for everything promised, without any detail, except the 'ruling outs' (ergo they have tax policy but aren't telling) <=> support from anyone with any assets. The rest of her pitch is wafer thin, deftly put down by National. But I'd still like to see National put up a counter to free tertiary education.