Originally Posted by
trader_jackson
Forsyth saying they have Increased FY23 Confidence which is the total opposite of some of the reaction on this thread...
Forsyth upgraded their earnings forecast accordingly - upgrading FY22 underlying profit by 14%... I suppose something good must be somewhere in yesterday's news update...
I reckon underlying profit will be around 11.0 cents per share - a near 15% increase on FY21 but not much of an increase on FY20 I suppose... but still a record high underlying EPS and not bad given alot of 'one off' stuff... Breaking it down:
FY22E: 11.0cps (1st half [actual]: 4.9cps)
FY21: 9.6cps (1st half: 3.8cps)
FY20: 10.2cps (1st half: 5.0cps)
FY19: 9.3cps (1st half: 4.3cps)
FY18: 8.9cps (1st half: 3.7cps)
FY17: 7.7cps (1st half: 3.5cps)
FY16: 6.1cps (1st half: 3.0cps)
One thing is for sure - 2nd half is always stronger than 1st half... so we can easily expect at least 10cps, but as I said, I reckon it will be more around 11.0cps... and anything above say 11.5cps will be truly excellent.
11.0cps would mean ARV is currently on an underlying PE of 15.6 for FY22E - that's the lowest (ie cheapest) in the sector so they say (yes, ARV is even cheaper than OCA... in fact it was even cheaper before when the share price was $1.50 a few weeks back... and would be extremely cheap if underlying cps was even remotely around the 13 cent mark!)
Would have been nice to see ARV produce an underlying 12cps or more FY22 result - then they could headline it with something like "Record profits & EPS doubled in 6 years", but regardless, sub 16 FY22E underlying PE is not high for a company with a pretty solid track record of growth despite challenging circumstances (and many doubters).