Jarden top buys / sells (value) have A2 has 2nd most bought stock last week (Contact top of the list)
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Jarden top buys / sells (value) have A2 has 2nd most bought stock last week (Contact top of the list)
Most bought can be seen as most sold also and most traded also .
Simple to explain ...Big news come and big range it moved to give ample opportunity to buy and sell many times thus showing huge vols
Also Jarden had ATM as their most Green range stock in Nov report ...Strongest Buy (1 out of 2 only in that category )
Makes me think our Bs here had better grip on ATM prospects then them ...lol
Can you collaborate why is that wrong to bring old posts in to discussion? It looks like Beagle is very proud of his decade long history of posts. Don’t see why it should be waisted and not to show that his opinion usually does not worth much as he changes it as he pleased. Btw, same applies to other b posters
The SP is dipped by half. They already worked out the SP without daigou contribute to the business, as simple is that. It is about 35-38% of the business, the Sp should be about $11-$12.80 for the momentum despite daigou chanel will return or not.
No one can do anything about this pandemic covid-19 around the world, I don't blame on the management or the business itself, until vaccines are rolled out , borders are open then we will look into the management if they can't boost sale. I am sure they are already working on way to boost sale by expanding brand awareness and increased the stores across their business.
The Sp should be about $11-$12.80 for the momentum despite daigou chanel will return or not.
No need to feel sorry for those who sold to Pendal - they sold out at between $15.34 and $18.00.Quote:
Originally Posted by tomm;847016 Posted 1 October 2020
Looks like Pendal are not as clever and manipulatively effective as they are made out to be?
IMHO there is no need to convert anyone here ...No one will change his/her opinion or even try to see things from other's perspective
But fact remains same that SP of ATM has turned out to be a bottomless pit recently ...surely worm will turn sometime ...but not soon so the debate here between two camps keep getting nastier after every downgrade :D
I respect your opinion but may I ask Do you hold ATM shares ??? or are you looking for a cheap entry? Traders are making money only you sitting there and thinking as an amateur trader. I am sure lots of traders are working their way to balance their sheets and even making money.
a2 Milk : Morgans rates A2M as Add
The a2 Milk Co's result was considered weak by Morgans though slightly ahead of guidance. Despite management issuing another material downgrade, the broker believes the company is well placed over the medium to longer-term once channels normalise.
The analyst reduces FY21-23 profit (NPAT) forecasts by -13.7%, -14.1% and -13.9%, respectively, though forecasting forecast solid earnings growth from FY22. This is driven by a recovery in the daigou as covid restrictions ease and growth in China and North America.
Add rating and target is decreased to $10.40 from $12.20.
Target price is $10.40.Current Price is $8.77. Difference: $1.63 - (brackets indicate current price is over target). If A2M meets the Morgans target it will return approximately 16% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Speaks for itself :
Posted 11 Jan 2021
Fourth downgrade on the way - new CEO will be going in with his own mandate to clean out every single cupboard of gross mismanagement which we know is there.
How the heck can any well managed multi-billion dollar company not know how bad their stock situation & sales were?
Sales not being achieved = stock piling up because management had no clue.
Getting rid of stock = reduced margins.
Too easy to blame it on Covid & Daigou - allows management & BOD off the hook.
As Craig’s note alerted to - ATM has lost momentum vs it’s competitors.
And all that while executives and directors were feasting on share options, huge benefits and salaries and selling shares after telling all and sundry that everything is good!
Balance a few days ago.Quote:
Stephen Ridgewell published and extensive preview overnight in advance of the ATM 1H21 result on Thursday. The result is pre-guided with $181m of EBITDA expected although the key questions for Ridgewell is whether ATM can provide confidence that revenue and margin trends are stabilising sequentially and also whether ATM can diversify its channels to market and defend its brand premium under new CEO David Bortolussi. Clarity on the latter question will take some time, although feedback from our proprietary large daigou contacts suggest that the sequential sales snap back is yet to eventuate. The issues around this important channel are multifaceted but can be best summarised as follows:
· Volumes declining - volume trends have worsened in early 2021 with Jan sales -70% yoy (vs. -55% yoy in the Dec qtr) with a much smaller than normal increase in demand ahead of the Chinese New Year period (chart 1)
· ATM’s daigou market share has eased – ATM has gone from market share gainer in 2018/19 to holding relative share versus other key daigou brands such as Danone’s Aptamil.
Looks like one analyst did a company visit to glean that information which does not auger well for second half sales and seems to be a very pertinent factor that's more or less been ignored on here. Reflecting on this I think its highly likely there will be a fourth downgrade. In nearly 40 years of bean counting I have learned that its the very latest sales data that's the most reliable indicator of future sales results and its clear December 2020 and January 2021 sales were excetionmally weak.
Beginner level TA (selling on a break down of the 100 day MA) would have got people out at ~ $20, kept them out since then and saved them losing more than half their money.
Many years ago I used to think TA was of limited value...these days I think one ignores TA at their absolute peril and seldom you see a finer example than this one !!
On a longer term chart like 5 years, (not shown) its clear a simple strategy of investing with the momentum using any breech up or down through the 100 day MA as the indicator of changing momentum has been a very worthwhile strategy. One day, might not be until 2022 or even 2023, momentum will swing back to the upside with a break up through the 100 day MA. This might be from a base several dollars below the current price in my opinion.
ATM has more than halved in the last 7 months...couldn't happen again from the current level going forward surely ?...or could it ? :scared: Some people seem super confident growth will return, like it a fate accompli...I am not so sure that's as certain as some shareholders think it is. This stock could halve again to ~ $5. Remember, I called it first !
I have learned its a very "brave" thing to do to buy a stock in a confirmed downtrend. Being "brave" is usually a very expensive exercise in my long investing experience dating back to the mid 1980's.
Attachment 12347
That Craig's piece was courtesy of Entrep (thanks!) on 24 Feb, day before the results announcement.
As telling a piece of research as you are ever going to get of the pending third downgrade when Craig's sources on the ground were telling them that things on the sales front were looking grim.
Those who took heed of the research would have got out at $11.48 that day - and bought back 22% cheaper the next day, if they so choose.
As for ATM's sp halving again - that's easy to see as the growth multiple the stock is still trading on of 30.6X F21 shrinks to 18X in the event of a fourth downgrade.