Investor update: https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/223999.pdf
Printable View
Investor update: https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/223999.pdf
They did all their growth in the second half of last year. That 185% is misleading now. 19% on the last 6 months is poor in my opinion.
Unless there has been a MASSIVE shift in lab volume from validation programs (i.e. non-paying) to commercial sales I fear the upcoming report will have some fairly subdued numbers.
Those holders hoping for a quick SP rise to exit with a smaller loss might be best to get out now (unless you want to hold onto the bitter end).
I'll try keep this brief as things are busier than usual for me right now (... but its hard to be quiet with the excitement just around the corner:cool:... well next few years...)
So lets read between the lines and draw some conclusions: (ordered in my view of how 'important' they are)
1. PEB has not yet achieved key 'milestones' (such as the reimbursement for medicare, Federal Supply Schedule approval - I have referenced below to these being "the formalities")
1a PEB have not turned around and said 'we've failed' (like so many posters on here lately seem to think has happened), in fact quite the opposite: they are almost there!
1b The Veterans Administration and Centre for Medicare and Mediaid probably together represent well over 50% (I would think?) of PEB's target market, so as soon as they gain approval (we know the science is already very good) one could argue its 'money in the bank'
1c Although the 19% figure did not sound very impressive, the fact they are still 185% up on last year, despite not having received any approvals for 50+% of their target market is quiet and achievement! (shows people are interested already, even when the 'formalities' are still not 'tidied up')
2. PEB may have been criticized for not providing enough updates (I was one that was leaning this way) and it is a positive step that they have decided to begin a serious of small "Investor Updates". Probably because they are going into a phase where many things (approvals, contracts etc) will be occurring, and hence an investor update is more necessary than before.
3. Some have commented that Pacific Edge is 'trying to cover up its failures in the US' bla bla etc etc by going into Asia more, well it seems the US is still very firmly PEB's focus with at least half the update relating somewhat to the US market
4. Clearly, anyone that knows a growth company, understands they aren't going to break out the technical sales breakdowns and specific numbers 23 days before full year results are announced... I mean they could, but lets not waste shareholders money on making several nice graphs with trend lines and complicated numbers in a overly costly fancy presentation (GeoOp?)... I'd rather they focus on hiring more sales staff....
5. Which brings me to my next 'incremental' point: They have hired more sales staff... and more importantly, they have taken there time to do it and still have 2 more positions available. They haven't 'gone out there' and 'panicked' and hired 6 people as fast as they could - I would see this as a warning sign things really aren't going that well...
6. User programmes, although potentially a little behind schedule, do seem to be doing 'ok' on the whole... like everything in PEB, its going to take a couple more years for things to take off.
7. Quite frankly I see bladdercancer.me as a bit 'wishy washy' but lets see how it pans out, doesn't look like its an expensive website.
As Skid suggests, you can draw your own conclusions as admittedly mine are looking at PEB as a 'glass half full' (or should I say test tube half full?).
Apart from a 'low looking' 19% growth over the previous 6 months (although arguable, they are still processing more tests than ever before, despite 'the formalities' not yet quite finished), there really isn't anything seriously negative in the investor update.
Keep holding, and carry on. :t_up:
Trader your half full glass is a magic glass as it also appears to be overflowing - your comments almost make me want to dip my toe in at 44c :)