What you say makes a lot of sense, MAC, and is based on an excellent knowledge of ATM's historical background. In such a large market, JVs would look sensible, focusing initially on selected regions such as the West Coast and perhaps the Northeast. Those regions not only have health-conscious, highly educated and relatively high-income populations, but they are the headquarters of most of the US national media.
Not sublicences, as you say. Even JVs can be tricky. The JV partners need to have strong marketing capability and access to consumer dairy outlets, obviously, but they also IMO need to be separate from the mainstream dairy industry, unlike Muller Wisemans in Britain. They must not be inhibited by concerns that ATM will sooner or later have to market its product very much in competition with standard milk, emphasising more clearly the risks attached to A1.
The Curtin research in Australia is interesting and useful, but is just a first step, identifying mild digestive discomfort associated with A1. That's nothing compared to other research that is likely to verify clear links between A1 and autism (quite soon) and eventually prove probable links between A1 and diabetes and heart disease. It will be full circle for ATM, because that's where the whole A2 thing started with Corran McLachlan's research. It was a strategic error for A2Corp co-founder Howard Patterson to take on the mainstream dairy industry so early in the piece, but sooner or later I think the chips will be down, not only in NZ but globally. IMHO.
I share your suspicions about M&A or takeover, and wondered if there was a link between all this and the recent weakening of the ATM SP. But as regards the delay in putting together a US deal, I feel there could be other explanations. ATM will be wanting to get things absolutely right this time in the US after a couple of failed efforts in the past. And for a company that's still relatively small personnel-wise, it actually has quite a lot else on its plate right now, eg still expanding in Australia and England and working on plans for Europe, China, Korea etc.