Originally Posted by
Beagle
Deal not certain by any means and subject to OIO approval, financial performance for this year AND last but certainly not least subject to the outlook for the following six months after that being within stipulated parameters.
Quite a few insto's taking the money and running based on the degree of uncertainty caused by multiple conditions, none of which individually and certainly collectively are certain to be fulfilled. Some named insto's selling about half their holdings as a good risk management initiative, which could be food for thought for retail holders ?
In terms of the Beagle weighing in on Tegal, (sorry couldn't resist) my thoughts are at $1.15 if this takeover proceeds and meets all conditions you won't get the extra 8 cents for many months plus a dividend of about 4 cents. Maximum upside is thus just 12 cents and you have to wait probably several months for it and you risk a possible downside of about triple the upside potential, perhaps even more if things go pear shaped. When one then considers the opportunity cost, (what else you could invest in and collect dividends and potential capital gains on over the months ahead I really struggle to see much mileage in playing Russian roulette with this one and continuing to hold.
I will feel very sad for IPO investors at $1.55 if they keep holding under the premise of trying to get as much of their capital back as possible only to find the deal falls over and this reverts to 70-80 cents which in my opinion is quite possible if they fail to meet profit guidance.
Take the money and RUN !!!