I suspect the selling was triggered by Wheeler's announcement and the perception the NZD has peaked. The devaluing dollar would make waiting for the divvy less attractive to offshore investors.
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Will never invest in AIR though I admire what they have done and are doing .... just that if I did it would guarantee a crash in the shareprice just to prove never invest in airlines theory correct.
Still follow and one thing over the years I have noticed is that the major cyclical swings in the NZD seem to be mirrored in the AIR shareprice
SO if moosie prediction of a collapse in the NZD then look for AIR at much lower price than today
Might also have something to do with this
http://www.smh.com.au/business/aviat...724-zwhn5.html
as AIR owns 26% of Virgin Australia which owns 60% of of Tiger Australia. It may be bringing back memories of what happened when AIR owned Ansett Australia. VAH and AIR chart look fairly similar for the last month or so
You've been watching re-runs of Wall Street with Gordon Gekko haven't you :)
Air is trading very close to book value now and I think the market has already written off the investment in VAH, certainly the only reason I can see why they invested in the first place was from a route expansion perspective.
Hi Guys, newbie here.
Got a small parcel of AIR last week @1.95, tempted to top up after seeing the recent downtrend. Can someone suggest if it has bottomed out yet or has it got some more way to fall. cheers.
Hi sb9, welcome to the forum. The downtrend, now well established, is concern. I suspect overseas sellers and the flood of new IPO's are creating a vortex where its difficult to get lift in the short term. There is real value in the shares at this level, (unlike the vast majority of the rest of the market), and this is a fantastic opportunity but short term, who knows which direction it will take...
Hopefully the upcoming FY announcements in August will break the downtrend, however that is still a few weeks away. The SP is very close to my stop loss and close to breaching the 200 day MA, yet there is significant upside to this stock. What a conundrum!
Hi sb9. I'm not a guru, but to my mind you have already caught a falling knife once with the purchase at $1.95. If you have a look at the chart over the last few months you can see that the lows have been getting lower. From a technical perspective this means, crystal ball aside, we haven't seen the bottom yet. My suggestion would be to hold fire until you are more certain the bottom has been reached.
I guess try to find a reason for the purchase other than 'surely it can't go lower'. Note that I'm only offering you advice from my previous mistakes :)