Love the “Shock rise in unemployment…” and “..shock slower wage growth” emblazoned across the top of that story
Floods etc and now bad economic news ……what next
Might even stoping increasing OCR ….as should be the case
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Is it a shock? Really? Immigration up net 6,000 monthly.
https://www.msn.com/en-nz/news/natio...56cee2bc9e60ea
You don't have to believe me just ask ASB senior economist Mark Smith who said the easing market would be more pronounced later in the year.
" pending recession for the NZ economy should result in firms scaling back their demand for labour."
That along with growing numbers of immigrants would ease labour market pressures and help the RBNZ's battle against inflation.
"As such, we expect the New Zealand unemployment rate to climb from record lows and approach 5 percent by the end of this year. This should temper wage increases and significantly dampen pressures on core inflation," Smith said.
When an economist says core inflation I assume they means "bad" wage inflation. Investors like Winner69 are hoping the immigrants suppress wages enough so that interest rates can be cut and we can get back to "good" asset price inflation.
Thats right..no bearing on the chart...that is the problem unfortunately many people opinions are swayed by the media..Most people opinions expected 2022 to get worse as the year went on. In hindsight the chart proved those opinions were irrevelant..yet strangely people opinions remain bias towards the media looking forward, rather than charts which record the actual fact.
Lets face it - it is not possible to predict the future behaviour of a chaotic system, even if one understands the parameters determining this behaviour. While short term predictions do have still some accuracy based on some basic physical rules (like inertia), mid and long term forecasts do not work. Weather forecasts are a good example for that - while the prediction for the coming day can be rather accurate, this accuracy drops with every additional day - and after ten days or so the forecast is not longer correlated with the what's happening in the future.
Forecasting the weather (first order chaotic system) is difficult and for longer than a handful of days impossible.
Forecasting he economy (a second order chaotic system) is still more difficult (to avoid the word impossible). The big issues in a second order chaotic system is that the system participants change their behaviour based on their observation of the system. The problem is now to predict the behaviour of each of these informed system participants and what it might mean for the system and at the same time having all these participants changing their behaviour again based on what they observe ... This might work, if all system participants do have the same interest, but tell me about markets ....
This explains the big impact of any information these system participants can use to form their decisions: the actions (and the talk) of politicians, RB governors, general news .... and the way the media convey above. All this shapes the knowledge (or perceived knowledge) of the system participants and with that clearly triggers reactions of the system (even not always as one would expect ...).
Even if we all seem to be able to explain the past, nobody can predict the future :) ;
I regularly use charts.Moving averages and relative strength,often help timing when buying or selling.
However they are just another tool for us to use.
Last year I had three shares in Aussie that were going nowhere.Well two were fast becoming dead ducks, while the other was going tracking sideways.
Had I been doing a spring clean,or needed funds they would have been gone..
Then BINGO all three were take over targets,and I was well rewarded..They were MSL,PTB and PTG.
We get to see Experts, "experts", analysists, professional shorters opinions via the media..So these people are components of media..You are media I am media as we all express our skills and opinions to others via a media source. Media at any give moment expresses everything from extremes at either end of the spectrum and everything in between..Like everything this spectrum can be charted and it would (in perfect world) resemble a Bell curve pattern with the media majority (top of the bell) being in the centre between the 2 extremes. We all know there is no such thing never as perfect world and the world is always changing thereby shifting and warping that bell shape curve...I suspect in the middle of last year the market media bell curve was skewed away from centre heading towards the bear sediment extreme...Hence the bulk of the people making up the media expected the market to deteriorate..
TA people are positive at the moment because the past up to the present has seen bullish market data results which are fact not fiction. If the rest of the week sees big drops then TAer's will certainly be changing from positive to negative.
Yes TAers do anticipate the near future (as we all do) but we use indicators signals to anticipate, not individual/group opinions and emotions (emotion kills).. Using trends and momentum analysis is useful and it shows where the market is headed during satisfactory market conditions. A good example of the power of trend and momentum is the Titanic reversing its engines but due to its size was unable to stop going forward after sighting the iceberg.Public opinion would assume that reversing gear and accelerate would put the ship into reverse motion as simple theory says that..
Unfortunately the public only focus on the dramatic media factors to analyse the outcome... and choose to ignore, or are unaware of other factors in play when making a prediction based on theory.
Mixed up in all this are the "Experts" in their field that make a lot of money...When I see media news article about an Expert predicting crash, I instantly ask myself the reason why an expert making heaps of money needs to put his reputation at risk..My answer is (I'm a cynic) he uses the media to cause a market reaction or sutally change/reinforce market sentiment..If I was a shorter I would be spreading as much bias pessimistic opinion as I could.
Alokdhir quote " ...when all or most including TA experts become positive is the most danger time..." There is a successful discipline, a form of Contrarian investing..Warren Buffet is good at it.."... Our goal is more modest: we simply attempt to be fearful when others are greedy and to be greedy only when others are fearful."
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Well said BP.
stock markets shares are Second Order Chaotic systems. TA uses this to produce probabilities of a happening. The effects of systems participants behaviour can be monitored such as sentiment indicators, trading behaviour, trending behaviour, demand variables, etc. Note:- these are short term variables in play (second order) making it very hard to predict their future variable value at a certain future point in time.
Interesting to hear (in the media:rolleyes:) that Super computers are getting powerful exponentially, so in a few years time the at present weather accuracy rate for 3 days may be extended to a week or more.
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