Don't let a good crisis go to waste :)
Listen to the noise,feel the fear :)
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Sahm Rule about to be triggered in US
Interesting, had never heard of this before. Will keep an eye on it thanks.. given it's 0.43 is there a number where it's actually triggered? Is it above 1? Interesting it's slowly increasing and not sharply increasing like prior to previous crashes/recessions
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SAHMREALTIME
• Last week we changed our OCR forecast and now expect the RBNZ will start cutting the OCR from November this year, by 25bp • In recent weeks our commentary had started to flag that the risks were tilting to an earlier cut than our February 2025 forecast • And last week the weights tipped more heavily to the earlier start A decisive development for us was the NZIER’s Quarterly Survey of Business Opinion. It is pointing to increasing risk of the economy tipping back into recession. The activity indicators softened, with reported trading activity for Q2 slipping deeper into contractionary territory and expectations for the following quarter negative. Notably, employment and investment intentions dropped back to levels similar to late 2022, when GDP contracted at its greatest pace in the current slowdown. And the current level for investment intentions is also not that much above 2008 Global Financial Crisis and 2020 pandemic lows. These measures increasingly show that businesses are responding to the pressures they are coming under from weak household demand as well as the varying cost and debt-servicing pressures they have been grappling with.
Now hopefully RBNZ wont mess it up by delaying the positive signal to market and businesses !!!
NZIER Shadow Board views shown below
Economists seem to be saying that OCR will probably be lower in a years time …but could still be quite high.
Hope Adrian doesn’t mess it up by taking heed of these gurus and going too early. Might even a pnother increase to sort things out once and for all
Image curtesy of my mate Michael
I am sure u like all Gurus understand rates work with lag thats why took long to work and will take long to do otherwise too ...if he delays or does what u suggesting then all will go downhill faster then we all can imagine ...Nov is right at present to actually pivot and July meeting is best to start sounding markets about his intentions ...but how it will happen only God knows ...U sure are in throw the baby with water camp ...who wants one more hike ...lol
C(down lots)+I(down)+G(down)+(X-M)= rate cut
Kelly at Westpac and reckons hawkish update from RBNZ this week