MR full time trader Macduck they love you here as well your got so many friends they keep telling you to LEAVE...
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MR full time trader Macduck they love you here as well your got so many friends they keep telling you to LEAVE...
laughing heaps here md. you have been burnt havent you?
no md, i am gushing about what nzo has done when i brought in 4 and a half years ago actually. That was in the low 30's. that equates to around 300% on the heads. even more if you picked the bottom.
the point is md... start talking about something new...i dont care how much you lost on nzo. i only care on how much i make. if you read my posts carefully i have criticsed this stock in certain aspects. I also praise this stock in certainareas as well. I call it as i see it. no more no less.
i still maintain, this stock is a no brainer at present. I said that at $1 or lower the other day as well. but i am not going on about every other post.
md...i think nzo is like your first and only love...it has burnt you and now its time to let it go.. just let it go. sort of like that vogel bread add aye.
sorry mate, nothing personal but it is time to move on.. good luck with your investment.
quite impressed with the latest announcement...
shows record production, production to date, shipped to date... Contribution to trade figures and gdp....Pretty adequate information really, none of which was 'really' required.. good stuff nzo.
disc: recently sold, will buy back at $1 :)
At some point people will have to question the current shareprice the thing holding back the sp is market sentiment and peoples previous experiences with NZO. Though at some stage what happens in the past has little bearing on what will hapen in the future especially if there is a management shakeup. Clearly what has happened in the past is relevant but how long will the past haunt NZO especially with projected income flows that will be the interesting question
I can't help wondering why MCDUNK needs to keep harping on about NZO. If he doesn't hold any shares, why should he care what happens. One senses a paranoia that NZO will do well and a need to convince himself on a daily basis that it is best not to own any NZO shares.Do you think that his keyboard completes the phrase for him when he starts typing pass the parcel...
On another note, how do they know that the Tui field produces a sweet crude - did someone taste it; is there a sour crude? If you mix the 2, do you get sweet and sour crude or a neutral?
Poacher, sweet crude means it's low in sulphur, cheaper to refine, and/or more output per barrel used.
Nice bit of PR from the company today, just what we've been asking for. And the share price continues to fall!?!? It's just crazy.
Time to start that buyout maybe, bermuda?
Or why doesn't the Co. buy shares back? Seems like a great idea to me.
Yes, there is also a sour crude
Sour crude has a high sulpher content while sweet has a low sulpher content
Sweet crude is more easily refined and produces more high value product such as gasoline per barrel compared to sour crude.
Most of the refineries around the world can not even refine sour crude - this is why there is a difference in value between sweet and sour crudes - refining costs are much higher for sour crude
,
I like the idea of a share buyback. At a very simplistic level, if NZO bought back half of the shares, pushing the share price over $1.50 in the process due to demand and reduced dilution of the company, thereby ensuring that the options are converted and getting $1.50 back for each option. Should keep both the option holders and the shareholders happy, reduces or prevents net dilution from option conversion, and NZO are no worse off (so long as the average buyback price is not > $1.50).
Of course, if NZO have some other plan to get the options converted (which appears is being kept to themselves if they do) ....
Those that sold out at $1.10 hoping to buy back at $1 may be disappointed. I have a feeling the shares will head north from here. Interesting how there are institution action happening in PRC and not in NZO.
REL: 1155 HRS New Zealand Oil and Gas Limited
MINE: NZO: RECORD OIL PRODUCTION FROM TUI
Production from the Tui Area Oil Project off the Taranaki coast has set new
records.
Last week oil production from the field totalled 345,117 barrels, an average
of 49,302 barrels a day. This is the highest weekly production total to date.
On 21 November a one day record of 56,467 barrels was achieved.
Since the start of production on 30 July 2007, the Tui Area Oil Project has
produced approximately 4.7 million barrels of oil. 4.5 million barrels has
been shipped, mainly to refineries on the east coast of Australia. The next
shipment is due in early December.
These exports have contributed to record New Zealand trade figures for
August, September and October. Economists are predicting that Tui production
will add 0.3 percent to New Zealand's GDP in the September quarter.
Proved and probable (2P) reserves in the Tui Area Oil Fields have been
upgraded by the operator to 41.7 million barrels, almost 50% higher than the
estimated reserves of 27.9 million barrels on which the project was
sanctioned.
Estimated production for the 2007/08 year has been increased from 10 to at
least 11 million barrels.
New Zealand Oil and Gas Ltd (NZOG) has a 12.5% share of the Tui Area Oil
Project.
PRC strengthens on good volume, yet the SP of the majority shareholder NZO is written down, or barely moves.:confused:
I may top up some more shares this week. :) I dont want to be left out of the party when the dancing girls get on stage.
That would be an interesting excercize if they did buy back then cancel the shares bought to raise the share price. Get rid of the profit to make the options worth converting and end up where they started with a few happy punters. That would be a very good outcome for the shareholders if they did. Somehow i think they just dont care. i cant see to many ways other than that, given the time frame even with the massive profits rolling in to do just that. If they announced a buy back i would buy in my good self at the drop of a hat and join the blue eyed brigade for a short trip. The idea is never close your mind to reality everything is subject to change the only question is will they look after the shareholders, or not?. Macdunk
md.. good on you me laddie. i sense a change of heart. if you cant beat then join em aye.
In the past you said you would never buy back into this stock because of management and no matter what the sp is. so now you will buy at the drop of a hat if they announce a buy back. nothing wrong with changing your mind. whether its a good investment is another matter.
no hard feelings and im sorry if i am a little rough on you but i have to say that you keep asking for it.
I praise you on your last coment that one should never close their mind and everything is subject to change. Keep that philosophy and it will put you in good stead.
Good little finish today and good to see it being on increased volume. It bodes well short term.
Nita, I still believe that the chairman has alot to do with where the sp is today. I only have a small holding in NZO, but would otherwise have substantially more if the chairman was to announce his resignation. I topped up some more shares today, cos I believe NZO is very much under valued. I am a valued investor and buy companies that I believe is undervalue to is valuation and holds for med/long term. I didnt buy NZO cos I believe there is a possibility of a share buyback.
A further thought - if there was a share buyback and the price took off as a result of the volume being bought back (which it probably would), providing NZO didn't exceed the HIGHER of $1.50 avg price on buyback OR say $180 million in total they would be on to a winner as there would presumably then be something like 130 million options converted at $1.50 each (= $195 million income for NZO). EG. if the avg buyback price exceeded $1.50 each but they still bought back say 1/3 of the shares at an avg of say $2.06 each (roughly, 261 millions shares / 3 = 87 million bought back at $2.06 = $180 million) then get $195 million back from option conversion. Good way to spend the income they are getting now, and still have the money come back in the middle of next year.
In actual fact, it works out that the less shares they buyback the more can be spent per share on average (up to the $180 million total) eg. buyback 1/4 of the shares (65 million) at an avg not exceeding $2.76. And for the average buyback price to be say $2 then (if they started now, at $1.10) the NZO heads would probably be say $2.50 or more at completion of the buyback, and everyone would be very happy I should think (me included :)). Options could then be trading for $1 each !
So it seems to me that (if I am correct) they can't loose, unless they already have something else up their sleeves which will ensure the conversion of the options without having to spend money on the share buyback. With this in mind as what I think might be a good backstop nearer to option expiry date, perhaps NZO have a sure way of ensuring conversion of the options (since they must have some cash to play with soon?), so maybe pass the parcel time hasn't arrived yet ????....
if TR retired from the board tomorrow, and had nothing to do with the company except for his huge shareholding in the company..... not only will the share price accelerate north, but TR's wealth also........... good for him......., isnt this the best course for a company owned by shareholders?
by the way...... does anyone know how old TR is?
i wonder if TR's ego is bigger than his.......... DOH........ our company..............
but then again, TR knows more about our company than anyone else...... he did create it, albiet with shareholders money, so maybe he has a master plan to make the shareholders wealthy, so, we might think that he could share the plan with the shareholders that financed his dream............
ditto with PPP......
i wonder if GPG is still looking at the depressed share price.
i wonder if GPG is depressing the shareprice.........
i wonder if there is a game being played between RB and TR?
maybe im wondering too much, but i do know the sp of NZO should not be where it is, and TR seems rather aloof to it all.
I totally agree with everything you say. I would even add that he is more concerned about the possible threat of a takeover rather than look at building shareholders wealth. i.e. i also in the view that alnog with many others including md is that he has put his own interest first. there comes a point where ones sole priority is to maintain control above anything else. I think nzo is a classic example of that.
On a more positive note, yes nzo has been transformed. we all know there are going to be cost overuns, more prc funding yadi ya. its par for the course at present. Only have to look at the eden park upgrade that has increased in costs by 50% and it hasnt even started. But what this company is doing well is laying the foundation for it to grow into a strong cash flow positve company. So i hope that there are no more shareplacements and that they consolidate their position.
time will tell.
I agree thats theres a negative perception re Tony Radford but regardless the stock should find its level based on fundamentals, remember a fews back the stock was below 40c and Radford was about then so figure that out!?
The reserve upgrade was great news and needed. Can you shed any light on how this upgrade will effect the production in the second year. On the origional estimate of 27.8 m barrells a sharp drop off was expected causing a revenue fallaway before Kupe and Pike kick in. Do you now still expect a income fall between theses events. I believe the market factors in a fall and markets do not like revenue to resede.etc,etc.
----- Original Message -----
I sent the above message to DS and yesterday got a reply that said they were working on that projection and would be releasing a report soon after some more info is abtained from JV. Soon could be the next quartly but at least the question has been put and they know some of us are looking forward to the answer.
Thanks digger
.
Good one Digger .....
I see 150,000 shares were traded in one "SP" hit at very end of day .... excellent !!
No doubt Insto buying on the back of the Tui upgrade plus today's PRC announcement that the coal transport route is now sown up with Solid Energy / Toll Railways agreement to rail coal to Lyttleton for up to 1.3m tonnes annually !!
Cheaper, more reliable because far less complicated, lower carbon emmisions, no millions of truck movements through Greymouth or barges getting stuck on sand bars, instead known transport system which will be upgraded to meet extra tonnage.
Go Solid Energy ..... Go Toll Rail ..... Go the Govmt for keeping Solid Energy and OnTrack up and running with new infrastructure investment.
When the time comes Solid Energy will be in an excellent position to offer top dollar for Pike !!
And Tapis chewing on US$100 per barrel again .....
http://www.aip.com.au/pricing/marketwatch.htm
I'm picking 115 - 120 cents by Xmas (provided the credit-crunch and those New York banker skollies hav'nt skrewed everything up) !!
.
Digger,
Have a look at some of the production forecasts. No worries mate. The revenues are going to be in excess of $100 million for years and years to come. ( in fact year one could exceed $150 million )
Relax.....this is going to be fun. Dont be swayed by others who dont really appreciate what is going on. I know its hard..gosh tonite I had dinner with a Broker who honestly had no appreciation of what's happening. Still mentioning stories of ages ago.
We will just have to wait for the fundamental financials to be published. Man, this thing really has got some grunt.
There are a lot of misguided ignorant people out there that should Know better.
good to see production has topped 50,000 barrels, even if only for 1 day thus far.
now they just have to keep it up for a few months leading up to the release of the half yearly report / skyrocket under the sp
M
amigos
tis is where is this co sp going wrong. high oil precios, upgraded reservas, and future projects which are thought of as going to be good. the only reason can be the lack of any ideas to reward shareholders with dividends and a wishy washy statement by ceo regards future growth.
Is this 50,000 barrels from only three out of four wells? At least in the initial stages they had one well (Amokura?) out of action and others choked back, I think. Good to tell the market that the 50k barrels was the FPSO limit, not the most the oil field will do. Tell the market a little bit of good news each week.
Mx
[QUOTE=Balance;174570]b*llcicks - TUI reserves have increased twice this year. PRC have a whole seam that can be developed. Kupe has more drills. The mine lives are not finite if reserves grow as has / will be the case for all 3 projects. More reserves = growth, so the SP should be above NAV to incorporate the growth.
another good day looks to be the cards for pike and nzo
i think we have found a pattern when NZO is doing well no sign of McDunk funny that huh perhaps he bought the 150k pacel at the end of yester day and is joining in his eyes anyway "The blue eyed brigade".
Boysy - you are about right with that comment; don;t worry hes like those Jason movies he'll be back when the share price has a southward movement!
Coal deal sinks $18m Greymouth port revamp
http://www.stuff.co.nz/thepress/4290516a6009.html
Quite the opposite Boyse i get accused of nagging get told to go away then told when i do go away that i have some ulteria motive. My thoughts are NZO over the last three years has been a complete waste of time for long term holders. The sp is exactly where it was three years ago. Only people that made money during that period were the traders. If you bought earlier on than that you made a decent profit but then watched it stagnate for three years during a bull market. The buy and holders over the last three years have made a zilch gain. The blue eyed brigade still ramp the share but not with the same fervour. Some actually are starting to see the company in the light of day without the rose tinted glasses. The fundamentals of the company are great, the market perspective of the company is rat poop. Unless the company have a complete change of attitude, the investors will lose out over the next three years with a share price to low for what it is. The company top brass are quite happy swilling at the trough giving the investors nothing in return, unless that changes the parcel will be passed, then when the music stops will found to be empty. If they buy back and cancel shares i would jump in for a quick trade, but other than that its all yours. Macdunk
Boring - heard it all before
It may be boring Tim but Macdunk has hit this one on the head. I sold out of this one May 2006 for a similar price to todays. Management were the reason and today are a major problem. Have not looked back. :)
If the last few events ie TUI upgrade and Tui Production and more historically the PRC float haven't bolstered the SP them im at a loss to identify what could lift it in the future.
I still believe there could be an opportunity here in the future but a this point there is no compelling reason to invest in the hope that one day we might see some appreciation in price.
Bear
Also boring
Bear. Its worth noting that NZO is up 16% for the year. Some might say its boring but if I can generate those numbers consistantly year after year then I am happy to be bored.
Trying to fathom why the market swings the way it does is like trying to understand why a woman has pms. I have given up a long time ago trying to be clever, playing the TA game etc. So for me to pick short term trends correctly is only about 50% of the time. So for me why bother. Another reason is if you take the last 3 years (which most of the doom sayers do) then the only ones who have lost money are the traders.
What will the market do in the next 6 months? since i am more of a fundamentalist i know the down side is small but the upside is significant. Kuoe is very exciting to me. A lot of money is being invested and a worse case scenario is that they will still make money out of it. Best case scenario with exploration potential etc? Then sky is the limit.
Watch this space
I also have the same view. I see the downside risk minimal compare to the potential huge upside. Top brass stayng in NZO is a put off for me, but eventually this pup coulc possibly be a T/O if the sp stays at these levels. This is assuming global oil and coal prices dont crash in the next year or so, I dont see this happening.
Interesting to see AWE, PPP and PRC is up and NZO have not moved much, thus making NZO look cheaper by the day.... LOL
In a similar vein Digger, I'm wondering if, because the initial Tui calculations were overly conservative (ie, turns out there is a lot more oil there than they first calculated), then maybe the JV have also underestimated the commercial potential of the oil columns discovered at Tieke and Taranui?
!6% for a year is 16% but this company has returned 0% since May 06 and negative if you include the spike to 130c a few months prior to that.
Potential is there but repeatedly the market is unimpressed. I agree that the downside is limited but if you have been going sideways for a year or two .... what gives ... appreciation in price is what we require not potential.... everything has potential it how you use it and how it is perceived that needs to be factored in
If and it is a big if ... there is a significant change in sentiment via changes to management, improved disclosure, $$$ in the bank (which is just started to occur) and clarity over PRC and any additional $$$ needed the price will continue to stay range bound.
bear
hope for holders that it doesn't remain range bound :)
You need to add the free options as well and the value of the rights issue @ $1 plus a free option to be fair but to me I don't trade the stock, I'm holding to capture the big prize
Its all relative. For me I brought into NZO when the heads were in the low 30's. Nearly 5 years ago i think. I brought options (oc's when they were att 11 cps). Of course since then i hace done well. No i didnt sell my heads at 130 but i sold a chunk at over $1.00 so now all holdings is free carry. so your point about it going sideways is that i dodnt care. I am only interested on what I brought them for and what I sold then at.Its worth to note that i sold a parcel of od's at a good price of 30.5 (near its peak).
The real issue here Bear, is where you hear the buy sign is near and if that is not clear then you must be in constant fear. Seriously though, you need to look at the big picture and not just a particular time frame to prove your argument. We all can do that. Every stock (maybe with the exception of Feltex and Burger Fuel) with go through trading rages, spikes, corrections or otherwise. A good stock doesnt become a dog overnight a visa versa. The tops 5 listed companies are good examples of that but all have had their fair share of the good, the bad and the ugly.
All though i have settled with what i am holding with no intention to buy or sell in the near future, I truly belive that NZO'as time has comeith. Even with some of management that needs replacing.
Good luck with your other investments Bear
NITA, The best buy and sell signals always come with TA. Never buy if the sp is under the 30 day moving average which is a good buy signal on downtrending shares. Always have a stop loss and time frame. Fundamental analysis is as usefull as teats on a bull as you are finding out with NZO. Its not how much profit that counts its how the market perceives the company that drives the share price. NZO should fundamentely be about $1-40 at this time and about $1-60 at conversion time. The market is telling you that it simply does not trust NZO to do the decent thing. The value of my property has increased in value according to the valuer by 60% in the last three years, your NZO shares have increased by zilch during that same period. You might have made a handsome profit for the first two years but after that you have lost big time. Market perception is all that counts thats why the share price is wallowing about. When management come out the closet with open disclosure and stop swilling at the trough you might be pleasantly surprized at the market reaction. MACDUNK
Boring Guru
Heres my call for the shareprice within 6 months. At least $1.30 per share. Still think oppies are a chance as well.
discl..holing with no intention to buy or sell in that period
pd. macdunk. take a peeps at the off market forum
That is a bit of a nothing comment, at least a $1.30 in 6 months.
At a $1.30 the options are not going to be converted.
I would have also expected that with upgrades etc, most companies in a similar position would be experiencing a lot more than a rise to $1.30.
Paddie
Still a gain of 20/130=18.2% in 6 months.
Annualized =36.4%.
Nothing to be frowned upon.
I would be happy with that.
But yeah, I agree, I think it will be at least that with further drilling around Kupe planned around this time frame...kupe will be big, even analysts are saying that it will be big.
Bermuda, you know about Kupe and the processing plant? Whats its used capacity going to be with current flows already known?
Upside down,
Kupe hasnt yet appeared on Broker's horizons. I was at a dinner yesterday with a broker who made the most desparaging remarks about NZO I was actually embarrassed as my wife was listening in.I wont go into detail but the only way to quieten him was to remind him that he said the same about Tui 3 years ago... At least I got a blush.
This has got to stop. People are getting seriously mis informed.
Kupe has been designed to take THREE times the current known reserves.
But who wants to listen?
A huge buy at these sort of prices.
.
I have no idea why posters who hate NZO and dont have shares in the company keep on coming back to this thread.
These bastions of investor and trader virtue seem to be impregnated with some sort of moral outrage because the exploration drills dont allways find the black stuff -- and the share price drops or goes sideways.
As was noted in earlier posts the share price under a dollar was a steel because it gave you more or less risk free exposure to three significant exploration holes, what a steel.
And as for complaints about the senior management, by which people usually mean TR, well get a life, compared to other similar sized Australasian oil companies with assets and development efforts that are ongoing, well show us that he is overpaid !!
Maybe TR does not have the kind of persona to woo the brokers, yes those same brokers who would of course grovel and grovel and grovel again at the feet of the likes of Bob Jones and Ron Brierley, two high profile BS artists whose paper shuffling and big talk lost kiwis billions of dollars.
What ever your view you have to acknowledge that TR is tenacious and that he and the NZO team have stuck to their knitting and that they have built the only successful New Zealand oil exploration and production company of any size and longevity !!
Off course if Ron Brierly and his skollies had had their way when they tried to shaft TR (I well remember the events some 14 or 15 years ago), NZOG would have been taken over, dismembered and sold off.
Yes there are still risks attached to NZOG with respect to getting cash flows from Pike and Kupe, but by now Tui capital is repaid and the Tui project is delivering in spades.
Pike and Kupe have excellent potential and with care and dilligence these projects are set to deliver over at least the next two decades. Yes there are downside risks to these two projects, but be fair and acknowlege that equally they both have substantial upside "risks".
To appraise these upside risks, study the exploration drilling that has already taken place around the Kupe "Cental Field Area", where previous drills successfully delivered significant hydrocarbon flows outside the CFA. And as for Pike, the Indian and Chinese industrial revolutions looks set to underpin commodities well into the next decade.
.
'The company's second major asset, Kupe, which is predicted to produce 254 petajoules of gas, as well as LPG and condensate, is on track to start production in mid-2009. "Kupe will be big," said ASB's Wright, adding that when it starts production, the company's earnings will get another lift.'
I read this a couple of days ago, cant forward the link as i got it off factiva.
One ASB analyst is thinking so? Good innit
edit: here goes a link i found, its amongst the reserve upgrade.. http://realtimenews.slb.com/news/sto...storyid=645058
Interesting. We get a 30% upgrade in reserves but only a 10% upgrade in production for this financial year. That indicates that production is currently limited by the Umuroa's oil handling capacity (which we knew) and that this situation will continue well into next year, rather than the expected production drop as the water cut increased, and water handling capacity became the limiting factor.Quote:
"We expect that this reserve increase will extend the production and revenue plateau for the project," AWE Chairman Bruce McKay told shareholders at the company's annual general meeting in Sydney Thursday.
A big long plateau suits me fine, especially if it stays up above 40,000 barrels/day for most of the next financial year. The revenue hole between Tui peak and Kupe startup may not be very deep at all.
Mx
It is actually nearer 20% production increase in this financial year - the original forecast was for 12 months, but this one is for 11 months after the slightly delayed startup. Your figures seem overly optimistic in the context of the AWE announcement - but AWE have a history of being rather conservative with their announcements to date.
The current AWE estimate is 11 million barrels, in 11 months - which is 33,000 barrels per day. The first 4 months have been running about 12,000 barrels above the average so you would have to allow the last 4 months being 12,000 barrels below the average. Which indicates around 20,000 barrels per day by the end of the year - or the new estimate will be exceeded.
If production is down to 22,000 barrels per day through next year, that will mean about 8M barrels - 1M to NZO (up 25% on previous expectations).
If you are right and production during next year starts above 40,000 barrels per day, then this year would see around 15M barrels extracted - 1.8M to NZO. Could happen, but is rather more optimistic than warranted by any information to date. But every day that production is above 40,000 barrels, and especially on days around 50,000 barrels, the more it looks like the latest estimates will be beaten.
TUI continues to surprise on the upside - more oil & less water - think 13m barrels up to june 30 is looking far more likely than 11m.
mmm 13m x .125 = 1.625m barrels to NZO
1.625m x $80 US = 130m $US
130m $US / .75 = $NZ 173m odd
mmmmm
Interesting how PRC is going up while NZO sp stays the same. One would think that PRC sp movement would also benefit NZO.
I think kudos to the ones who took up their preferential shares in Pike. Clearly the smart money appears to be moving in judging by the increase in volume.
I wouldnt be to concerned about pike not bringing up the nzo sp. nzo has jumped about 10 cents with the recent upgrade. ultimately its going to have a material effect. also since every 4 cps increase in price represents about 1 cps for nzo, it will hardly be noticable to nzo even if pike jumps 5 or 10cps in one day.
paitience looks to be rewarding the pike and nzo holders.
discl. hold nzo but not pike
What I meant to say is with oil prices at these levels and PRC sp moving up, there is an opportunity for PRC holders to sell PRC and buy NZO. Or NZO holders to accummulate more NZO shares. Maybe it is good for NZO to stay at these levels for a period of time so that the traders with little patiences get out and the long term holders to get in. I am seeing NZO sp staying at these levels or lower as an opportunity.
Also an opportunity for NZO holders to sell NZO & buy PRC - PRC looks like a better risk /reward IMO since the majority of capex spent - 1/2? the product already sold, takeovers everywhere, price escalating short term & most importantly for 2009 when in full production.
I think in 18 months PRC will be at least $2.50
Do you think NZO will be $2.50 in 18 months?
I hold both & far more NZO than PRC - currently regretting not re-balancing
I'm thinking the same way as well. I was considering between a top up in PRC or buying into NZO. PRC looks more attractive and it has an excellent forward PE, the tunnelling is more than 74% done, institutional accumulation, and best of all a plan on how do benefit the shareholders with the earnings.
Better hurry up, dsurf and xx. . . . PRC seems like it's having quite a run lately. Up 4 first hour this morning on heavy volume.
NZO price was 110 most of yesterday, back to 110 today, but dipped to 108 for 2 small trades at day's end y/day. VWAP was 109.94. Does that look like manipulation to anyone else?
im suprised the nzo price has held up this well with the lack of depth.
its positive though, as it shows people arent willing to sell much at these prices...
Not willing to sell at this price, at the same time buyers aren't paying more to buy either~
:rolleyes: this stock puzzles me~
Disc: Hold NZO
I agree Viking. Ive long since trying to work out this little darling. If i was a day trader i would probably have got the movements wrong about 8 times out of 10.
With Pike on fire, record production rates, extremely high oil prices (who knows how high they will go), Kupe coming up very quickthen i am just sitting back and watch it all unfold.
Like many great growth stock PATIENCE is required and I like alot of other investors am thinking about buying more I just can't think of anything in else in NZ that is worth putting my hard earned into currently ----Property Development ??? NAN----NZO--- A+ NZ Growth stock
JBmurc-100,000 NZO soon
NZO is not very liquid at these levels. All it needs is one large buyer (maybe institution) to like the stock and they will have to pay up for a decent size. :):)
NZO is not very liquid at these levels. All it needs is one large seller to give up on the stock and they will have to take what they can get.
Hold on there is a problem - Duncan has not posted on NOG last couple of days = what a coincidence share price is headed North as is PRC - even the flunkies are welcome to reply, there are a few of you out there!
Good GAWD TIM you really have a bad dose of MACDUNK SYNDROME. You come snapping at my heels calling me a boring old bastard one minute for repetition, then complain if i dont post anything.
I like your blue eyed enthusiasm for a share that is exactly at a similar price today as it was three years ago. I will look forward to see you play out PASS THE PARCEL hope you find something in it when the music stops. I wont be commenting on either PRC or NZO in the future as i dont hold shares in either company and only invest in Australia so please dont think that i envy your choice of investments. Best of luck. Macdunk
NITA all you have to do in a very simplistick way is use the 30 day moving average as a buy and sell signal. Buy when it goes above and sell when it goes under.
Get into direct broking site its all free look up NZO or any other stock and never buy under and never sell over the 30 day moving average. Ta is easy to use, fundamental analysis simply is not much use with companies like NZO. Its the market that dictates the sp as you are finding out holding a share that has gone no where in three years. Macdunk
DISCL I dont do that myself but its a good starting point to TA
maxman it was closer than that. It was 635 to 937 which is 3 hours and 2 mins,not 4hours 2 mins. You have expended his self imposed silence by 33%.
Now i would ask everyone to be kind to Duncan he will be haveing severe withdrall symptoms by removing himself from both PRC and NZO. That is a big call,maybe should have weaned himself slowly off say only NZO for now. After all PIKE have not been around as long so could use a shakup be fore the blue eyed gang thinks it is to be a good investment.
three cheers for Madunc
We won't have to here P the P for the 9th time!!!!!!
and now watch the share price move.
good luck in aussie dunc
New Zealand Oil and Gas is Officially the most undervalued stock on the NZX...
Its not very often that the word certainty can be attached to a stock... I reckon it could be attached to NZO...
Pikes going 'gang busters' which is a good signal...
Man, you would sell the wifes kidney to buy more eah...she only needs one of em eah...:D... tell her you will be able to buy her two kidneys in the future to replace the one...:D
:cool:
.^sc
I agree with you there SC, this stock looks really undervalued. My fingers are on the buy button but the only thing holding me back from buying my first lot of NZO is the lack of volume at the moment. There was a bit of a spike on the announcement day and a gap but the volume since then has been unremarkable. Where are all the buyers? I think it's paranoia but part of me suspects the big institutions know something we don't. Might be a good time to use a Guaranteed Stop Loss.
That is interesting and certainly a well supported feeling that the inst are in some knowledge we aren't. However i doubt it is true.Some years ago i remember a survey of sharetrader investments picks compared to inst and brokers and the sharetraders did just as well.Many an inst have sold out only to have the SP rise considerably afterwards.
What the real problem with NZO is what i have stated before. That being a preceived since of trust and accountability. People are not too accurate in the type of judgement they employ. NZO has been critised for not meeting targets which they have not,but they are probable better than the world wide industry average with TUI coming in in record time.
TR and staff bonus are probably less than industry average but to the NZ market a since of snout in the trough is what comes out of it. What i think the problem is is that if you watch people you will note that some people can bulli-sh time and again and always get away with it but other get rapped for the smallest indiscression. Why this is always so can only be put down to our group judgement ability which is always wanting. This is the point i keep asking Balance[unbalanced] and he refuses to answer.The finance companies can time and again bull-s-hit the invester and lose real money but the same invester will avoid NZO as the SP may not be garanteed to go up. It is crazy but it is the human mentality that exists.
NZo will only rise when the money is in the bank and counts for more than the SP,in the meantime it will be the company you should have sold your wifes Kidney for to buy,as Shrewd Crude so well puts it.
New Zealand opens Taranaki blocks for exploration
Monday, 03 December 2007 09:58 (NZ Time)
New Zealand opens Taranaki blocks for exploration WELLINGTON, Dec 3 (Reuters) - The New Zealand government
said on Monday it has launched a bidding round for petroleum
exploration rights in the oil and gas rich region of Taranaki. Nine blocks totalling 3,273 square kilometres (2,034 square
miles) of the onshore Taranaki basin have been offered for
exploration, Associate Energy Minister Harry Duynhoven said. "The size of the blocks and their underlying prospectivity
has already attracted interest from a variety of local and
overseas exploration companies," Duynhoven said in a statement. The Taranaki region, on the east coast of New Zealand's
North Island, contains all of the country's commercial oil and
gas fields. New Zealand has stepped up the hunt to find new oil and gas
fields to replace for Taranaki's ageing Maui field, which has
supplied 80 percent of the country's needs and is due to run out
around 2010. In July the government awarded permits to two consortiums
who are expected to spend NZ$1.2 billion ($916 million)
searching for oil and gas in little-explored oceans southeast of
the country. The bidding round for the onshore Taranaki basin will close
on May 30.
NZO and JV partners will be happy with this.
New Zealand Oil and Gas Limited NZO 3 Dec, 2007, 15:26 MINE
Taranaki Milestones
Full Text of Announcement: New Zealand Oil and Gas Limited is welcoming notable milestones in its two Taranaki-based projects, Tui and Kupe. The company is also actively assessing the on-shore Taranaki blocks offer just released by the New Zealand Government.
Today the 5 millionth barrel of oil has been produced from the Tui Area Oil Project off the Taranaki coast. Production from the field began on 30 July and this milestone has been achieved in just over four months. Recent technical modifications to the production facility have allowed daily production rates to increase to around 50,000 barrels a day. Last month proved and probable (2P) reserves in the Tui Area Oil Fields were upgraded by the operator to 41.7 million barrels, almost 50% higher than the estimated reserves of 27.9 million barrels on which the project was sanctioned.
Over the weekend the "topsides" of the offshore platform for the Kupe Project arrived at Port Taranaki from Thailand. The large steel structure will be installed on the jacket (legs of the platform), which are now in place in the Kupe Central Field, 30km off the South Taranaki coast. The Project's three production wells will be drilled over the coming months and the Kupe project remains on target for production by mid-2009.
Today the New Zealand Government opened an onshore Taranaki Basin Blocks offer. Nine petroleum blocks are being offered, representing a total area of 3,200 square kilometres. NZOG has already undertaken preliminary assessments of the blocks and is actively considering participation in the bidding round. NZOG believes there is good remaining prospectivity in the Taranaki basin.
Whats peoples thoughts on NZO's interest in these blocks.
Will they be after a bigger slice of the action than their 12.5% with the JV?
I'd like to see a 20-30% myself...greater drilling costs, but greater rewards.
In less than 5 months 5 million lovely barrels. It just keeps getting better and better
This might help force NZO's hand if they need money the cheapest way might be convertion of options . Thoughts ?
the pr machine is ramping up.
org were forced to repeat the announcement today as well on the asx,view kupe being included.
Installation of the jacket is complete [first big risk item accomplished] and now waiting for the topside to go on, being the second big risk item.
Once the topside is on and they start drilling the 3 production holes, then kupe is significantly downrisked = sp should climb
M
that would be a typo. harry was a school teacher at NPBHS around 25 - 30 years ago.
FYI
Interesting news out today.....
SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- For the first time in more than 30 years, the fuel economy standards of U.S. cars and light trucks are set to rise following an agreement reportedly reached by congressional leaders late Friday.
The decision to raise the Corporate Average Fuel Economy [CAFE] standard will increase the nation's automotive mileage standard to 35 miles per gallon by 2020, with increases starting in 2011, according to news reports.
It will be the first time that mileage standards have been raised on passenger cars since 1985, when the current level of 27.5 mpg was set.
The deal is expected to pass the House of Representatives and Senate next week as part of a larger congressional energy bill, reports said.
The changes are meant partly to push automakers to introduce more gas-electric hybrid vehicles and other technologies that will improve vehicle mileage standards.
As part of the bill involving the new CAFE standards, the lawmakers agreed to extend flex-fuel credits that are used to encourage companies to build cars that run on ethanol and other cleaner-burning fuels, reports said. Automakers are said to be in favor of the credits as they can help offset costs for equipment changes. http://i.mktw.net/mw3/News/greendot.gif
Rex Crum is a reporter for MarketWatch in San Francisco.
Per following movements from port taranaki, the kupe topside heavylift vessel - "Paula" is due to depart for yokohama on Thursday
Thus the 2nd big item for kupe is about to be derisked
Thu 06/12 06:00 PAULA PSA heavy lift OUT bangpakong-thailand >> yokohama BW2/DEPARTURE 151 8397m 6.2 R
M
DR WHO, Witout making comment on the company it is a very simple thing to make money with a beginners guide to TA. Fundamental analysis has proved useless over the last three years with this and other like companies. Lets look at the 30 day moving average over the last 12 months as a beginners guide to this and PRC using it as the buy and sell trigger with a couple of percent leeway.
1, OCT 2006 buy at 87c showed a sell dec 2006 at $1-05 = 20.68% profit
2, Buy march 2007 at 87c showed a sell aug 2007 at $1-20 -37.93% profit.
3,Buy oct 2007 at $1-03 showed a sell nov at $1-03 = loss in brokerage.
4, Buy dec 2007 at $1-08 sell still to come.
PRC shows up with a good gain buying in the mid eighties still to sell. That is a very simple form of TA that works a treat on the ASX miners. I dont bother looking at fundamentals other than is the company in profit and likely to remain so. Understanding the market is far more important than waste time pouring over that guff. Macdunk
Your wrong DM.
Advice, concentrate on your own stock movements rather than ones that have no interest.
Wait for it.....
NITA, You have stood still with your investment over the last three years. I only gave you a beginners look into a very simple form of technical analysis that showed you a fifty pc return in just over one year. Look up PRC then see how far in front you might have been. I only wish someone would have opened my eyes to how the market really works years ago before i worked it out myself. Look forward to meeting you on the 15th give me a blast then. Macdunk.
DM. If you think you know it all know then i strongly advise you to tread with caution. You could wake up one day and wonder what happened to your TA, 30 day moving average, trailing stop losses yadi ya. Show me in 15 years time that you managed to beat the indexes time and time again. Forget about the last few years because if you had thrown a dart at a dart board you still would have beaten most fundies. Why, because they have a big chunk of their investements in the non performaing stocks over the past few years.
DM, i have seen literally 1,000's of people that give me the same speil as what you are doing now. I can honestly tell that their luck runs out sooner or later. Whether its on the futures market, day traders or whatever. One thing is that i caution them with, is that they need to test their thoery. Run your theory doing 1,000's and millions of simulations on a computer. Once you have done that then you can put it into live transaction. again, a word of warning. a computer doesnt take into the emotional element. This is where a many fall down as once they are in a certain predicament then there system is more prone to fall apart.
I am happy to debate your issues on the thread provided but you insist on bring it to these threads. You only give us data on a few selected stocks over the past year or so. Sorry MD, at present it seems like that you wont know if you are clever or just lucky because of the lacl of data.
There is only one person that i have seen on these forums that i would have any respect for TA. That is Phaedrus because he/she uses a system and appears to take the emotions out of investing. Whether Phaedrus makes is doing well compared may be another matter.
The challenge i point out to you is to put up your claims on the thread provided. Show us raw data, your system etc. If you think that its too secret thats fine as well. I cant reiterate that people like you were a dime a dozen during the eigthies. School students borrowed $1,000 or $2k on their credit card only to turn it into tens and even over $100,000. There were competition among schools to see how much money they could make. Some of the figures were staggering. Of course that is history and many of those people were left with nothing.
The dhallenge if you decide to accept it is show the raw data even with the benefit of hindsight to show how good your system is. Don,t waist your time giving us a few selected stocks that you have made 10 baggers etc.
wow :/
Its all in the Time Line Theory.
Your on to it SHANE its giving people ideas that they might not ever have thought about. When a person has a closed mind its pointless saying anything. I used to tell my apprentice boys, that we do it this way up to the point you show me a better way, then we change to your way. Investing is like that, you do people a favour by letting them see other ways of doing things. The brain dead never bother looking they are to busy criticizing to even think about it. I only showed them a method where they could have made money on a company that has gone sideways for three years. Macdunk
Get over yourself - don't you get it? most of us are bored with your blue eyed brigade, 10 bagger boring, 30 day ma dribble
PS You promised to stop commenting on NOG & PRC over the weekend, you broke that within hours, how we can believe your other tales of constant success?