Thanks`. I understand the first commercial flight is to Perth on 15 October. Can you shed any light on why it takes just over 3 months to begin commercial operations ?
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I understand that the plane will be used for ad hoc trans-tasman flights (crew training purposes - easier on short flights, lots of landings and takeoffs) as well as static training and engineering training. So the old A320 you thought you booked on next time you fly to Sydney could well suddenly turn out to be a brand-new 787-9 - you might get a nice upgrade as well whilst the crew practice handing out drinks in business class!
Roger you edited your post at 4.30pm ;)
It was this ..
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http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/images/misc/quote_icon.png Originally Posted by Roger http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/images/...post-right.png
I'll be able to buy some tomato sauce with my profits to make it more palatable :) Just accept it mate, you were overdue for a failure with your TA, getting it right six out of seven isn't so bad:D..
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Second thoughts ..huh??
No problems from me...All good Roger:).I love debates (constructive) and the odd banter..we can learn and add experience from them.
Air did fall back (215.5) this morning (after trading hours last night) to test it's one buy signal area the EMA50 break point (215)...Thats good news...more good news is someone bought 1 million shares at 217 a moment ago..so this may create another buy signal in the money flow indicators...
My discipline shows not enough signals to re-enter..probably need to exceed 220 I'm guessing and also for the NZX index to rally.....As more buy signals appear it will lessen the risk of a dead cat bounce.
The NZX50 index is still disappointing..it seems the global rally is by-passing us (edit: I've now noticed NZX index has just enough buy signals for me to start buying NZ Shares http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/images/.../001_smile.gif)
^^ I love a good healthy debate too mate. I admire you're discipline in sticking to your system, the main thing is too have a system in this sideways market, something I'm sure we can agree on and you've been very successful with picking close too the top to date :)
I've been thinking a lot overnight about what effect a 5-7% growth per annum in top line and a 3% reduction in expenses will do to the bottom line in the years ahead if the company meets its key targets.
As I 'm sure everyone knows airline companies traditionally have wafer thin profit margins. I'm trying to get my head around what impact this could have on their net profit, anyone like to share their thoughts ?
I think the reason the global rally will continue to bypass us boils down to three key factors.
1. Our market is already trading at a 22 year high on a forward PE basis 17 times is right out at the upper extreme based on history and history shows PE's always contract when they hit excessive level's.
2. The Reserve Bank have it wrong and are looking in the rear view mirror. Interest rates are already too high when its clear commodity prices have already seriously corrected. Another rise in the cash rate would be absolute madness in my opinion.
3. The wide plethora of new listings is sucking too much cash from the market, simple supply / demand imbalance.
Biker - You'll like this mate. http://www.sharechat.co.nz/article/f...rgin-boardhtml
Yes, indeed Roger, and now looking for these percentages to transpose! :-)
"...........Shares in ASX-listed Virgin Australia last traded at 42.5 Australian cents and have gained 12 percent this year. On the NZX shares in Air New Zealand rose 0.5 percent to $2.18 and advanced 32 percent this year."
If you PM me your email I can send you my model. I don't use simple assumptions like expenses going down 3% - in fact I don't agree with that figure at all - expenses will rising by between 2% and 3% on average over the next few years. I flex assumptions like fuel price, NZD, and most importantly top line revenue growth. My individual line item (P&L forecast), is based on history, best guess, and conversations with senior management.
I'm pleased to say I have done a decent job forecasting so far, largely because I have picked top line and fuel cost reasonably well (and appreciated the value of NZD strength).
I don't forecast cash or balance sheet because cash is lumpy and the leverage ratio supplied and forecast by Air NZ is the only information I need. This is an earnings momentum story for the foreseeable future, with dividend ramping to reflect that. In a few years time cash generation will be incredible but I don't want to get excited about that yet.
Thanks mate, PM sent.
Lots of great info on the all new 787-9 Dreamliner. Looks like a real game changer :)
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business-e...ectid=11285548
How approachable at a one-on-one level have you found senior management at AirNZ to be on these matters? I assume you're involved in the finance sector, so that might weight quite heavily on their enthusiasm to engage, but I'm just interested in your thoughts on accessibility, especially given AirNZ's culture.
With respect to the companies I hold shares in this has been a mixed bag; with some you can call the CEO directly (despite being relatively high market cap companies), while others are only really accessible during annual meetings.
New routes planned to be opened-up including South America which will indeed make use of the ETOPS 330. Not trying to be argumentative mate, just providing evidence concluding this recent matter we debated.
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/travel/new...ectid=10795990
Extract from that article
Quote:
The national carrier is getting the 787-9 version, able to carry between 250 and 290 passengers. Air New Zealand hopes that the 787's huge range and impressive fuel efficiency will allow it to open up new routes to South America and across most of Asia, including India.
Plans might be different for sure, but then again maybe not seeing as the Dreamliners are four years late. I'd love to know what compensation Air negotiated with Boeing for the delay. Who wouldn't want to be a fly on the wall when those negotiations were going on or better still being part of the team doing the haggling :)
This is from an opinion piece written by a Herald hack over two years ago!!
It is certainly not 'evidence' of anything currently and my comments as of now, still stand- that is, the ability to use 330 min EDTO, whether applied to the 777 or the 787 will not be adding anything to AIR's profitability in the short to medium term.
You're not wrong there PT. At present LAN has NO competition on direct routes between NZ and South America. I fly this route several times per year and the planes are full (or very nearly) every single time. One way prices are often similar to special offers return tickets NZ - Europe. There is definitely room for competition and increased traffic on this route.
Stated intention is "no". There is no alliance to links over there to make it worthwhile. Point to point is very limited. Think Virgin. The advantage is just not the money it makes from them, (although hopefully it will) but the customers who will through book to destinations AIR does not service.
This is chilling in light of MH370.
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/ar...ectid=11288373
Air's acquisition as launch customer for the stretched Dreamliner will indeed accrue benifets to the airline.
Next Gen plane with extra efficiency over the already extremly efficient standard version Dreamliner and has extra range.
Plane was designed from the ground up for extended range twin engine operations and FAA granting approval of same now that the Lithium-ion battery issue is behind the aircraft type will accrue benifets to AIR over time
They're only getting their first one this coming week...its hardly like they'll come out and announce flights to South America, India or any new routes any time soon is it !!
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/n...lery_id=125974
Good over-view of the new Dreamliner
http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/qq306/Hoop_1/a-1.png
Back to 7 out of 7 :D.
AIR back down testing its 210 support again
The first of ten brand new 787-9 Dreamliners arrive. Three more scheduled this year :)
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/travel/new...ectid=11291471
Waiting to see if AIR breaks below $1.99...
Couta
Your right... so much for market sentiment...
Sharks are in the water... They are building a ladder... DOWN
Its an interesting process to watch. The slow creep upwards from 196, testing the waters, but also bridging a psychological gap...
Im limited to a 20min delay here... some of you however, likely know the outcome already.
the shareprice graph for the last 2 years suggests to me that the sp would have to dip below about $1.90 for the support trendline to be crossed. Is that about right? I think all these sellers are jumping the gun a bit. But, if they want to miss out on the september dividend thats their choice i suppose...
This drop to 196 on very small volume looks like a Shakeout to me..
200 is a support area and for a moment the highest buyer was at 1.96...This is the opportunity for this devious player to strike and try to create a technical breakdown by selling a small amount of shares in an attempt to buy a large volume of shares during the technical breakdown selling...........that effort has failed so far....
A shakeout can be seen as a bullish action...someone (usually a large player) wanting to buy into AIR.
http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/q...oop_1/00-1.png
I might be foolish but I grabbed some at $2.00
Couldnt resist.
Ongoing Disclosure Notice
Disclosure of Directors and Officers Relevant Interests
Section 19T(2), Securities Markets Act 1988
A Details of director or officer
Name of director or officer of public issuer:
Robert Jan Jager
Name of public issuer: Air New Zealand Limited
Name of related body corporate (if applicable):
Position held in public issuer: Director
B Securities in public issuer or related body corporate to which this disclosure relates
Number, class, and type of securities: 1
NUMBER OF SECURITIES HELD AFTER CHANGE
24,500 Ordinary Shares
C Nature of relevant interest and name of registered holder
Nature of relevant interest in those securities: 2 Beneficial Entitlement
Name of registered holder of those securities 3 Robert Jan Jager
D Details of acquisitions and disposals
If the relevant interest was acquired—
Date of acquisition: 4 11 July 2014
Consideration paid for acquisition: 5 NZ$49,884.21
It's hard to figure why they're down 13% from $2.28 which so many positive things on the go for the company.
Record profit about to be announced next month, record final dividend shortly thereafter, first in the world with the new stretched super efficient Dreamliner 787-9 ordered a decade ago at what is thought to be a deeply discounted price and at an exchange rate that was dramatically less favourable that what it was actually settled at, (i.e. they're paying for these new planes at a very favourable current exchange rate) and nine more coming with options for another 8 if they want them, oil price now below where it was when the latest bunch of extremists, (ISUS), started their radical plans.
According to Reuters survey of seven analysts forecasts the average consensus is for 2015 after tax earnings of $262m or EPS of 23.61 cps. At $2.00 that puts the stock on a 2015 PE of 8.47. The company has plans and aspirations to grow the top line at 5-7% per year.
The SP seems amazing value to me, especiallly trading cum a circa 7 cps fully imputed final dividend.
I'm estimating 14 cps dividends for the 2015 year which when you take into account the value of the full imputation crredits attached this places AIR at $2.00 on a forecast gross yield of 9.7% with excellent prospects for growth in subsequent years.
Couta, Bryndlefly, Hoop, Forest, Roger
I think that somewhere between all of your comments there is a background scenario playing out. Sudden fall.... for no "real" reason. Heavier traffic today... possibly close to someones "desired" limit, or still just above it.
I get the feeling someone wanted to break the 200c barrier purely for its psychological effect... it may still happen?
The Div is approaching and suddenly theres an "unstable nature" to the price..?
I find it interesting the way the 94 then 96, 96.5, 97, 97.5, 98, 98.5, 99, 99.5 happened. All those little .5 increases popped up in very quick succession.
I smell an algo and an HFT dark pool at play...
Something i thought might be a factor - I wonder if all the selling at around $2 is because anyone who bought into AIR before about mid 2012 would have paid around a dollar a share. I bought mine back then, and its certainly pretty tempting to sell now that they've got that magical 100% number next to them in my portfolio... but then i'm greedy and am holding out for a 200% increase. Come on $3... ha ha
After yesterdays flurry, today could be interesting.
Will wait to see market direction and either hold what I have, or load up again. That algo built ladder may provide entry for heavy loading.
mmm SP seems to be a tab seasonal....In past years July/August has seen AIR trading low cf 90 day MA?
Got the first parcel that went for $2.00 yesterday, my TA Gutometer told me to buy so I did:cool:
mmmm looks like good buying Couta (however it is early days.) While I appreciate you sharing your purchase, I'm slightly wary as based on your Xero experience your post could be the kiss of death for AIR !?;) (Bit like a certain brokers recommendation.)
Sincerely, I wish you well with this purchase, it looks like a good long term move.
(Disc: holding and accumulating when opportunities arise.)
He's a nice bloke and well overdue for some good fortune :D
There's been a lot of comments that the stock seems to be a bargain at the current SP, and modandm has previously mentioned lobbying for a special dividend, but perhaps an increase in the scope of the share buyback scheme is in the best interests at this point? The DRP was suspended a while back too, perhaps time to reconsider? Personally I've ended up using the dividend proceeds to top up with mostly AIR on the dips anyway.
can you confirm re DRP plan?
The form is still available on their website
http://www.airnewzealand.co.nz/shareholder-forms
I see the "shake-out" player as mentioned by Hoop ( http://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showthr...ll=1#post49166 ) is still at work.
The company has record low gearing and I expect well north of $1 billion of cash on hand as at 30 June 2014.
A special dividend to celebrate the 75th year of the airline seems appropriate to me. I think a special fully imputed divvy of 10 cps would be nice and would cost them a fairly modest $111m and hardly even make a dent on their massive cash stock-pile.
Lobby them at investor@airnz.co.nz
The more people that send them this suggestion the more likely they are to do it :D
Roger - what is most of that billion in cash?
I still recall years ago the CEO touting a billion in the bank ....no worries mate .....right up the day of the govt bailout
Yes fair comment that most of it is tickets paid pending delivery of service but the record low gearing isn't debateable mate :)
Flight check Seattle to Auckland - Delivery flight of Dreamliner - Pity they didn't
invite some investors with large holdings along 1/3 rd full seems like a missed
opportunity to me.
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/travel/new...ectid=11293778
Dreamliner 787-9 struts its stuff at Farnborough air show
http://www.bing.com/videos/search?q=Boeing+787-
9+Dremaliner+display+at+Farnborough&docid=34759783 3072&mid=F3885085D52
B63061E03F3885085D52B63061E03&view=detail&FORM=VIR E4#view=detail&m
id=F3885085D52B63061E03F3885085D52B63061E03
Heads UP...
Looks like the accumulation race is getting ready to run Again.
Hard to disagree with that. Anyone with even a modicum of interest in Air New Zealand, aviation or the Dreamliner could have written a better one in their sleep.
Not a single mention of the technical aspects of the plane, whether it was quieter than other aircraft, whether the reduced effective cabin pressure equilivent to, 6,000 feet altitude instead of the usual 8,000 feet meant she arrived feeling fresher than normal after 14 hours flight, the bigger windows, the calibre of the seat comfort e.t.c.
Message to Air N.Z. management - If you'd like someone to provide a decent write-up on your inaugural commercial flight to Perth on 15 October, feel free to get in touch, I'd be happy to oblige. You'll have my e.mail address from the special dividend suggestion I sent you this morning :)
Indeed, journalism of the lightest kind. There are some new features I would be interested in.
1. The higher humidity of the cabin. Was this noticeable?
2. The larger windows.
3. The quieter engines.
4. How did the lighter plane feel in any turbulence.
To fly in an inaugural flight and talk about the menu. Good grief.
Moosie
Im thinking a quick fall to $1.9x. then a recovery which may take a few days (especially if its a big player in the background trying to buy in without driving prices upwards too fast.)
Note the $2.00 - $2.08 action on Monday/Tuesday was a 4% rise... followed by mass selling on Tuesday (4% in one morning was good)
Note also the next planned sell off as a single lump (market depth) (there are other smaller volumes in line before it) appears to be at $2.05... strategically below Tuesdays $2.08
possible $1.95 or $1.90 bottom ... rising to $2.05 for a sell off (5.1% to 7.8%) ??
We may yet see another sell down happen after today, sometime in the next few weeks.
If the latest troughs were caused by a single large buyer wanting in then we may see the price rise and continue after todays efforts
If the trough is because of an algo/HFT .... we most likely will see multiple waves to come... be ready.... be in.. be out.. quick.
Fasten your seat belts… gonna be a bumpy ride today.
Can someone please tell a newbie like myself how a single buyer can manipulate the SP? And how you spot that?
Hi tzbang. As Hoop posted see http://www.incrediblecharts.com/trading/shakeout.php
Short version
A BIG player already owns some shares in the company, but not enought for their own liking.
They sell the shares they have at minimum price or even below the present price trying to force a lower average price.
If they succeed they may actually trigger a panic "sell-now" level that someone else has set as the minimum price incase the price does start going into freefall.
That can be either good or bad for us depending on your strategy.. long term holding.. its just a bump in the road
Short term startegy.. a chance to load up during the troughs and take profit on the temporary high... repeat cycle
you could make a few % in a couple of days... or you just load and hold
Danger is you sell on what you think is a temporary high only to find the price continues to rise..
its all personal point of view and strategy
The race is on...
oh thanks.. hmm that's quite a clever play
Probably falling below 1.5, see whats happening in the Middleeast.
Unless they wipe them out they will be back where they started in a few months when the next batch have been trained and equipped.
Its hard to be excited about the world at the moment. I wonder if many people feel the same way and if that would put a dampener on air travel in general. I just feel like building a bunker and settling in....
Might sound rough Moosie re: your new TA strategy discipline..so no offense intended ....To be successful at TA you have to stick to the discipline!!!...Regarding recent AIR buy in...You got what you deserved..you prempted (assumed) medium term buy signals before they happen that it did not happen..so you got faked out..You only buy on short term buy signals for Short term investments thereby be prepared to sell them on short term sell signals..AIR failed at it's first resistance (208) this was your signal to get out, Not buy in!!...If you are going to buy for the longer term or buy and hold strategies you don't act on short term signals you resist emotion (greed) and rely on Medium/long term signals [my charts are set at default (medium term)].
I sold out at the sell signal over 3 weeks ago and I'm still out because I stuck to the TA discipline..
The buyer's crystal ball is probably no better than ours..
No!!..there is support before then at 193/195 area ..then 182ish...The 200 is no longer a support it got busted this morning and is now a resistance..
Just to add to Golsteins post...after clicking that link re shakeout...have a look at my post with the depth table
Technically speaking .. reaching any where near 1.50 is at the moment highly unlikely...
To clear up the technical support blurryness around the 193/195 area it seems 195 is now established as a support area..
Disc: have none...on watchlist waiting for NZX50 weakness to end/AIR medium term buy signals to happen
Malaysian airlines can't catch a break can they ! Other airlines now avoiding airspace around the Russian / Ukrainian border so apart from the effect on oil prices sparked by the tension this incident has had I wouldn't expect much impact on travel demand.
Almost certainly shot down by a Russian made missile that's been supplied by the Russians to front lines for the ongoing battle the separatists' are fighting so what does this do for U.S. / Russian relations, especially after the U.S. ramped up sanctions yesterday ?
None of this helps, neither does the $3b hole carved out of the economy by the fairly dramatic fall in dairy prices.
The ironic thing I've noticed lately is that when the U.S. market has a good day, like yesterday, American Airlines, Delta e.t.c. go up and yet Air went down six cents, yet when they go down 3-4% like they have overnight in reaction to these events no doubt AIR will go down as well. There's something I'm not seeing here or its hammer time, I'm not sure which to be honest.
some pretty big orders going through
There's something I'm not seeing here or its hammer time, I'm not sure which to be honest.....Roger..If you are looking longer term forget the noise...
Lets think outside the box .....First of all, we are involved in a marketplace (stockmarket) which is full of noisy people with differing agenda's, differing attitudes, differing diciplines and differing temperaments, and they all react together as a group to ever changing external factors (long term and short term) affecting the market environment they are surrounded within....From a TA point of view you are not investing into a company you are investing into a marketplace that buys/sells that companies shares...so we are at the whim of the markets behaviour which as all know can be very cruel at times especially if your investment discipline revolves around Fundamentals....but that nature.... in general, life is in a state of flux its always moving in the state of various degrees between yin or yang with the rare moment of "normality" (fundamental normal) happening only with the yin yang crossover..... Humans are animals and we herd together, intereact together and rely on animal instinct to survive both at an individual or group level...the market place is a great place to show our true nature...it shows just how primitive we humans can be...e.g basic Greed or Fear.
With hindsight (40 years in shares) I think I would've been far better off having a psychology degree than one in Business Management.
Malaysian Airlines...My heart goes out to this company and those poor passengers this year...they have suffered the blunt end of the odds...
So... that it Roger...so what was the point of this silly rant.......oh yeah, in brief, ............the NZ market at the moment sucks :p
Nice psychoanalysis there Hoop :cool:
Is it the market that sucks or the ever present rash of new IPO's sucking the life out of it in tandem with a Reserve bank that seems determined to snuff out even the slightest bit of economic growth.
I can relate to that feeling Toasty, its hard to win when you're swimming against a tide that feels like its going out.Quote:
I just feel like building a bunker and settling in....
I think its hammer time.... but not with shares :cool: At times like this hammering alcohol seems more attractive than hammering shares.
Hmmm...Yeah if you really want in on this share you could use a different strategy...could use the buy at support strategy with tight stops..after all 195 is a support level...problem is with this strategy the NZ market being small you can quickly get whipsawed out.
2:55pm and selling is still happening at 196.
I suspect progressive distribution.
Next week could see further sp reductions.
Why not indeed. Basically what you're saying is the market is a bit stuffed and I tend to agree it is, in the short term. I should have shorted the index with futures.Quote:
Nice psychoanalysis there Hoop
Is it the market that sucks or the ever present rash of new IPO's sucking the life out of it in tandem with a Reserve bank that seems determined to snuff out even the slightest bit of economic growth. All of the above + less available money the dairy prices going down indicates lower terms of trade which correlates strongly with the currency price therefore the lowering of the NZ$ causes investors to lower there NZ risk and slowly gravitate away from NZ$ to a safer currency and also other non NZ$ markets....you know the usual ebb and flow stuff...Also investor attitude is in the doldrums too
I can relate to that feeling Toasty, its hard to win when you're swimming against a tide that feels like its going out. [COLOR="#800080"]The ol' saying goes... an ebbing tide lowers all boats
I think its hammer time.... but not with shares At times like this hammering alcohol seems more attractive than hammering shares. And why not!!!..After all, it is Friday afternoon is it not??[/COLOR]
I'm long term with this stock but I suspect investors will need to keep their seat belts firmly fastened for a while.
For what its worth ,I just flew AIR from Vancouver to Auckland--When I went to the toilet just after take off,both cabinet doors were wide open and the light cover was laying on the floor--the first 4 hours were like sitting in a winter storm.......but it was full.
Corporate buyer finally got their volume together, took most of the day...
16:35pm volume 1,180,622 @ $1.95
Welcome back.
I fly that route regularly and overall it is very well patronised in all classes for both directions. YVR makes a great alternative to LAX for onward Canadian domestic travel, or perhaps as an alternative (albeit less convenient to LAX) route on to Europe. AirNZ's soft and hard products are superior to what AC provide on YVR-SYD, so you'll also see a few passengers travelling on to Australia.
Newbie here. I made my very first buy a little before that corporate trade. I've been looking at Air for a month or so now and with my limited knowledge and a bit of encouragement from this thread decided to go for it at 1.95.
Is that large buy at the end of the day considered a good thing for the stock? Even if the buyer plans on selling as soon as it's gained a couple cents.
I might also add that the stewardess were commendable (just didnt like the physical plane much) It would be great to get a dreamliner in the works at some stage.
Air Canada sucked--the 'no meal'' policy on the National Carrier for a 5 1/2 hour domestic flight is just rubbish IMO.
I know you are pro Isreal Couts--I think you are most likely a reasonable person,but i think it is one dimensional thinking to not consider the innocent (on both sides)
consider this paragraph
The media makes out like this is an intractable conflict between two equal warring parties, but it is not. Palestinian extremists' attacks on innocent civilians must be condemned and ended but the root of the conflict lies elsewhere -- in the dispossession of the Palestinian people. Israel currently occupies, colonises, bombs, raids, and controls the water, trade and the borders of a legally free nation that has been recognised by the United Nations. In Gaza, Israel has created the largest open-air prison in the world, and then blockaded it. Now as bombs fall, the families, literally have no way to get out.
Congrats on your well timed purchase and welcome to the forum. Healthy volume is always a good thing. There's little doubt the Malaysian airliner was shot down by mistake and is a one off and the Israeli's and Palestine people have been going "at it" since time began and probably always will be so that's also almost irrelevant from an investment perspective. I think the correction has been overdone, (American Airlines, Delta e.t.c. have corrected nothing like AIR has), down 15% from $2.28. Good timing for the final divvy but put your seat belt on because there's lot of skittish investors around who appear for reasons best known to themselves to think the world is ending soon.
Vancouver is an ideal route for the plane in my opinion. Digging around I saw some evidence yesterday that fuel savings are greater than the 20% Boeing had anticipated, Air Nippon have been getting 21% with their 787-8 and the 787-9 has even more efficiency and a super high tech tail fin from military technology that'll reduce drag even more compared to the 787-8 so the fuel savings are going to be fantastic for AIR as it gradually receives delivery of the ten 787-9's they have on order. Quite apart from that and perhaps more importantly, customer reaction to the Dreamliner from extensive survey's conducted by other airlines has been extremely positive.
Excellent cabin pressure, better humidity, very low noise level's and the massive windows have been extremely well received by passengers.
Air have options for another 8 as previously mentioned, total possible 18.
AKL-YVR is certainly a route that's suited to the 787 and I too would love to see that aircraft scheduled on that service. Perhaps later flying on from YVR to a European destination such as FRA? I'd hesitate to create another LHR link albeit via Canada. I think most likely, once more aircraft arrive Air NZ will adhere to their original plan of one further North American destination such as ORD or DEN.
I wonder whether the Spaceseat will ever make an appearance on the 787? Personally I like that seat much better than the standard premium economy offering, but perhaps the floor area it consumes in the aircraft adversely affects yields?
Hi Grayman welcome to ST
Let me tell you now, you got no encouragement from me with the timing to buy AIR on Friday:)..Don't get me wrong..AIR is a great company but at the moment the overall NZ equity market is going though a period of weakness...and for some unknown reason AIR has taken a bigger correction so far than the NZX50 index itself..maybe AIR's correction is overdone and will rise up from this 1.95 point or maybe this weakness still has some legs...Time will tell...
Now that you have these shares I feel from your first post that you are watching today's AIR's market with intensive interest...This is common newbie behaviour to follow shares very closely..but..it can produce unnecessary worry with just normal day by day fluctuations..
Purchasing shares for the first time opens up a new type of behaviour which to many may not have experienced before..
Buying for the first time creates some stress..buying into weak markets will create more anxiety than normal, so if you have some anxiety already at day one I suggest you google pucker factor or investor pucker factor so you can understand this type of stress/anxiety behaviour you are experiencing and try to understand your own behavioural limitations (we all have our strength and weaknesses)and then adopt an investment strategy to best suit your personal mental behaviour and attitudes..Many well educated people lose out unnecessarily because they failed to identify their weaknesses which then affects their decision making abilities later...e.g emotional selling..
To ease your concerns about your quote..."Is that large buy at the end of the day considered a good thing for the stock? Even if the buyer plans on selling as soon as it's gained a couple cents."
That wasn't a large order worth worrying about..nor worth analysing....rememember the saying "Don't sweat the small stuff"......Also, us plebs are not privy to the reasons of each small buyer/seller info only the highest of divine heavenly powers and the individual who traded have this info..Anyone on this forum who says the reasons why, only assume...there are some TA indicators which can pick up the much larger orders.. and some very unusual (big or small) trading behaviour can picked up by watching the depth info as it is released...The very big trades have to be disclosed to us shareholder through the NZX by those big traders.
This diagram below shows the volume and price near the end of the day (depth) and under that the last 6 month volume history...As you can see it was a normal day volume-wise ...the buyers found it easy to pick up shares at their price so the market was considered weak.
Hope you the best of investing Grayman
Hoop
http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/q...op_1/air-1.png
Thanks for the advise and the welcome, I'll be sure to have a read. Perhaps I should of said some of the comments made it look like it could be a good time to buy instead of encouraged.
In any case it feels good to have something in the game. Definitely gives extra incentive to learn.
+1
I have never seen the AIR thread so popular - but keep on topic
Welcome to the ownership registrar grayman. If your new to investing you have picked an interesting stock to start, but one I believe is significantly undervalued. Some wise words from Hoop too - though you will develop what works for you over time.
There have been two broker notes out in the past few weeks - one ominously titled 'nearing the peak', and the other from Marcus Curley, removing AIR from the conviction list, while maintaining buy.
The first piece is done by an analyst who applies a ROIC based approach to valuation and investment thinking. This is a well grounded and solid approach used by many successful investors. The analyst basically is neutral on the stock, arguing that it will struggle to earn its cost of capital over the long term. Air is currently trading near book value implying that it will earn its cost of capital. I don't find this approach useful for the purposes of investing in airlines, because many of the long term assumptions being made are poorly founded, and overly determinant on the outcome. Therefore i rarely take notice of this analyst. I prefer a multiples based approach using medium term analysis from the bottom up - i.e forecast the P&L. Anyway to tackle his specific view -in my opinion AIR has sufficient competitive advantages to over the cycle achieve average ROIC above WACC, and over the next few years growth will see both capital and ROIC rise nicely. Lots of cash also suppresses ROIC, so investing in productive assets (fleet), and in efficiency (technology), will see returns increase. This should come through in the stocks valuation over time.
I respect the work Marcus does, but am surprised by his recent note. He cites slowing earnings growth and higher fuel prices as justification for reduced conviction/upside. I track the price of fuel closely and have seen no material increase. Singjet continues to trade around c$120 USD per barrel, which supports my model input of $130 per barrel (into wing cost). I have a bloomberg terminal but you can use this to watch the price if you want to: http://www.iata.org/publications/eco...velopment.aspx
On his point about slowing earnings growth I would say hmm! After all AIR had 155% increase in FY13 and on track for 30% in FY14, clearly that is not sustainable. However I actually think FY15 could be better than FY14 growth (maybe 30-40%), after that it will be lower (maybe mid teens). Combined with a high dividend, and improving free cash flow (medium term) that is a pretty compelling story to me, and yet the stock is trading sub 9x earnings, and attributing no value to a $400m stake in VAH.
Given the recent fall a cynic might suggest he is reacting to short term volatility and concern, something patient long term investors should avoid doing - if you chose to be a TA trader that's your prerogative, but for mine investing is about careful thinking and analysis, then backing up you ideas with large investments.
The final operating stats for the FY14 year are out this week - a model update for you all to enjoy will follow in a few weeks time.
-mod
Get a grip people and read my post #1322 simply a response to gv1s post about the price dropping to $1.50,others then kept this going, must be time to take a few weeks off the forum I think,have a nice week:cool:
modamdm - Nice post, thanks. People are paying really stretched PE's, (circa 35) for certain sectors such as the retirement sector which don't really have any better growth profile than AIR in my opinion.
What some seem to have forgotten is yes while its true we have an aging demographic that will be looking to fill retirement homes en-masse we also have a massive baby boomer population coming up to 65 who are wealthy and want to travel A LOT, myself included.
Me too--off again in 10 days again(Thailand this time with Thai air,which I quite like) It would be interesting to know if AIRs other routes are as full as the Vancouver-Auckland.
Couts--I probably should have kept my mouth shut--Your ''beating the nutters into submission'' came on the back of hearing that 70 palistinian children have been killed so far (collateral damage?) caught me in one of those moods--apologies for straying off topic..
time:16:22 325,000 @ 202.5
time: 16:26 300,000 @ 202.5
Seller exiting with (202.5 / 195) 3.84% profit in one day.
...they may be expecting a fall_back
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I travelled the AKL -> LAX route a couple of weeks ago. Plane full. Not much Isle room in those 777's down in cattle-class.
http://www.airnewzealand.co.nz/seat-map-boeing-777-300
I liked those nice roomy 747's of old. You could even have a game of cricket with your bread roll down the isle.
The Dreamliner won't be fitted with the space seat.
The spaceseat will remain on the 773 as these planes fly the US London routes and demand is there for this type of seating.
The 787 is targeted towards Asia, less demand for premium seating.
Airnz are currently fitting out their 772 fleet and will be very similar to the 787 layout. Somehow they are going to add an extra seat in each economy row.
Good move Moosie
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I will be watching the trend like a hawk, There could be a reversal coming?... or not.
I see a 68K block waiting at 205, action might plateau there for a couple of hours... or it might just steamroller straight through.?
If there is I expect a deceleration delta on volume and price movements, and potentially the reappearance of those abnormal small volume trades at below average price.
For me that will be time to exit and wait for the trough to bottom again.