Anyone have a recording of the AGM or know where i could find one?
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Anyone have a recording of the AGM or know where i could find one?
I'd be interested too. I logged into the meeting through the Seeka website but while can join meeting (that has finished) can't replay it.
Annoying they don't have a recording - even if just available for a couple of days.
Meeting slides here - http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-websit...797/417009.pdf
technically the 1st bullish butterfly (in red) failed But the second smaller one in green succeeded (but has now played out) but would indicate very strong support at $2.50
But I have 4% of my portfolio in this already and my mantra is that "Horticulture is risky" which I know to be true from my own gardening lol so I cant really play this further.
Attachment 15060
failed to gain traction on the AGM meeting. maybe because they said no div's for quite a while as debt way to high. sellers came out of the woodwork after AGM. anyway i agree with your % of portfolio as its dependant on weather more so theses days and has high debt levels ... say no more its a higher risk stock at the moment.
Why did they deem it necessary to hand out shares to growers ( including avo) in the current environment.
Are they scared of Growers jumping to Eastpack etc.
I have asked several Seeka growers this question. They all agree that it came out of nowhere and doesn't make sense. But will take the handout.
stock tanking after AGM , see as well as the 2.5m grower stock issued we had 600k odd management shares as well. are they selling ?
The gold crop is all in apart from the last few orchards.
Volumes are slightly down on forecast.
My take on it is that it just sux to be invested in anything on the NZX today.
It's one of those days when you think 'why bother'.
And the Zespri gold license tender was yesterday. The revenue from the tender was something like 100 mil, half of the previous year. Basically meaning come August the Zespri dividend will be half.
Some growers would have been banking on the dividend income.
Eastpack AGM tonight in Tauranga but I'm in Auckland so won't be going.
SEK. Apart from volumes being lower than forecast (rough guess 15 percent max), Then I don't think there is anything to see here. The season gold harvest has gone like clockwork.
Green. There is quite competitive pricing for Packing so the margins are alot smaller. Maybe that is having an impact but I dont know the dollars.
I personally think it's the higher for longer interest rates and lack of NZX and grower capital that is reflected in the sp.
It's a bargain at these prices for sure. If Eastpack had the capital (or Atleast wanted to take on the debt risk) then I'm sure they would be making a merger or takeover offer at these levels. But the current Board doesn't really have the skill set to dream up such grand plans.
The Zespri mouse on the ship has ended up costing the growers 34 million dollars as the entire cargo has been dumped.
That's 30 cents per tray cost to the growers.
That's what you call bad luck. Alot of hard work dumped.
Zespri is acting a bit weird on this one. Informed us that it's been turned into bio fuel, the fruit that is, not the mouse.
More on the mice
Reputational damage
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/the-count...DWP5RSKMQXUBA/
Not really. The shipment is insured, and they will get a payout which is under negotiation, probably close to the full amount. There is no damage to reputation as nothing has been sold from that ship And customers actually know **** happens so not a big drama. Also given the size of the crop losing 1% of the crop makes it a bit easier for the Europe team and their targets.
All vessels are fully insured for their crops. The insurer was the one that insisted on attempting to save the shipment but the customers said they would not buy the fruit even if it was checked. So now they will negotiate. Zespri pays a ton in insurance costs and they would not like to lose that business. Its a negotiation but at minimum Zespri would demand the full costs and lost profits from the million trays.
https://www.nzx.com/announcements/431648
Seeka Limited [NZX:SEK] advises that the kiwifruit industry will be able to continue to use hydrogen cyanamide (Hi-Cane) in New Zealand. The benefits from using Hi-Cane are significant. The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) decision-making committee released their decision on the reassessment of Hi-Cane today.
The decision keeps the existing approvals, adjusts the rules for its use, updates its hazard classifications and removes the suggestion of a 10-year horizon for the use of the product. The new rules for use take immediate effect. Seeka is supportive of the proposed adjustments, which align to Seeka’s current operating procedures as a responsible orchard manager and grower.“Seeka takes its environmental responsibility very seriously and is confident the decision achieves a good outcome for kiwifruit growers without compromising the environment.
We applaud the process and outcome,” says Seeka chief executive Michael Franks.A summary of the changes and information on the background of the reassessment can be found on the EPA webpage: https://www.epa.govt.nz/public-consu...-reassessment/
Double edged sword. Of course no one wanted hicane banned. But if it was it would have led to exciting times with Zespri license release of new varieties etc all bought forward. More farm land converted, more work for everyone and the death of the old green kiwifruit.
But hey, BAU it is.
https://www.farmersweekly.co.nz/digi...ST_EMAIL_ID%5D
Page 26 - interesting article about MPac, one of their competitors.
https://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/BU24...ay+7+June+2024
Kiwifruit Growers Produce Record Breaking Crop
- New Zealand’s 2024 kiwifruit harvest is coming to an end
- Ideal weather and labour availability allows for orderly kiwifruit harvest
- New Zealand economy awaits market returns from exported kiwifruit
Eastpack is leasing coolstorage space from Seeka to get the final crop in. They are looking at over 50 million trays packed for the season, which should translate into a record profit.
https://www.nzx.com/announcements/432512
Seeka Limited [NZX:SEK] is pleased to announce a significant increase in the number of class 1 kiwifruit trays packed this harvest season.
In total 43.0 million trays were packed compared to 29.8 million last year. This 44% increase is a pleasing recovery after two very challenging years impacted by weather events.
The additional volume was efficiently processed by our facilities and well within our capability. Availability of labour and automation improvements both contributed to a smooth and effective packing season. Shipping is proceeding well.
The impact of the Zespri shipment infested by rodents is not expected to materially impact earnings.
While the increased trays packed is a signal of a return to profitability, it is too early to accurately predict the financial outcome and to be able to provide reliable financial guidance.
The Company expects to update the market later in the year. Seeka remains focused on maximising operational earnings, debt reduction, and achieving financial leverage targets.
The Company thanks all growers, suppliers, contractors and staff for their efforts in concluding the 2024 New Zealand kiwifruit harvest.Release ends.
Good to see a good recovery from the last 2 disastrous years. But only back on track to where we were a few years ago and the target of 50 million packed trays still a wee while of. Then need to focus on debt repayment and keep dividends suspended for a couple of years at least.
yep i reckon easy a yr or more of no div's to get down this based on current earnings
As long as they have a few good years and can pay down debt I'm happy enough to wait.
Interesting to compare guidance to previous years.
On 21 June, 2023 Seeka announced:
And on 22 June 2022:Quote:
Seeka Limited [NZX:SEK] has undertaken a comprehensive assessment of forecast
full year earnings. The group result for the full year to 31 December 2023 is
likely to be a net loss before tax of between $20 million and $25 million.
This forecast reflects much lower than anticipated New Zealand kiwifruit
volumes. Seeka has completed its New Zealand kiwifruit harvest packing a
total of 29.8m class 1 trays, compared to 42.4m in the previous corresponding
period.
Why were they able to give finance guidance the last two years (in more abnormal conditions) in June but not this year?Quote:
The harvest is now completed, with the total industry Hayward volumes down on
the previous year by approximately 17% and down on the current year industry
estimate by 10%. This follows the SunGold national crop being down on
estimate by 10.2%.
Seeka's post-harvest volumes have followed the lower than expected industry
volumes, and in addition there was crop damage from high winds in late 2021
in the Opotiki region. Total Hayward conventional volumes of 14.4m trays
reflect a 21.5% reduction in average per hectare yields, year on year, and
SunGold conventional volumes of 26.0m reflect a reduction in average per
hectare yields of 10.5%.
Post-harvest earnings from handling kiwifruit represents a significant
proportion of Seeka's earnings, and the volumes handled in the current year
are much lower than anticipated. The total volume of class 1 kiwifruit
handled in 2022 is expected to be 42.4m trays. While that is ahead of
Seeka's 2021 post-harvest volumes, it includes the volume from acquisitions
made since the 2021 season.
Seeka advises that its Australian business has performed well and has
delivered earnings improvement on last year.
Due to the lower SunGold and Hayward volumes, the Company expects full year
net profit before tax to be in the range of $9.0m to $11.0m.
Aussie season gone well.
They mention they'll update the market "later in the year" with financial guidance.
https://www.nzx.com/announcements/432690
I thinks it because Seeka has learned it's lesson with giving financial forecast updates too early in the season.
Seeka had a shocker with fruit coolstore issues a couple of seasons ago. Not all costs could be passed back to growers on repack etc because they would lose too many supplier growers. And they also have a component of income dependent on the sales price of fruit in the market due to the leased orchards and managed orchard contracts.
It's best to play it safe and keep the market informed like they have, and release financial information when there is more certainty over storage, fruit in market sale and fruit loss data.
Thanks for your thoughts Toddy.
Lots of risks in the business huh. Interesting they don't seem to have much pricing power over the growers. Not being able to pass on costs and needing to issue incentive shares, which growers then dump on the market when they need cash. Are Eastpack eating their fruit salad?
Eastpack have a grower update in a week or so.
In the past the post harvest operators cut each other's throat to gain supply. But those days are ending as fruit volume grow and it's becoming more expensive to build the coolstorage.
Eastpack was full this year and had to get help from Seeka. Eastpack was more expensive to pack with as the growers were not looking around due to their good storage performance in recent years. The storage performance means that you receive more incentives from Zespri and you have less fruit loss.
Seeka is set up to succeed and the volume capacity in the coolstores will be taken in the short term. Once there is no space for growers to move around in the industry (first time this will have ever happened) then the Packing Companies have the pricing power.
Eastpack is still a Cooperative which is a case study in itself!. All as this realyy means is that growers have to cough up chunks of capital everytime they expand. And we have some pretty nasty debates. I would rather we give up some control and list or merge with Seeka.
In the meantime I think the Eastpack shareholders will be up for a good dividend this year.
That's a hint on what I think Frank's is trying to say about where Seeka ended up without exciting the market.
reckon seeka needs to reduce debt at least 60m to fall within convenants range
"Following the successful completion of the kiwifruit harvests in New Zealand and Australia Seeka Limited [NZX:SEK] advises that it has completed its financial forecasts for the year ending 31 December 2024 indicating an expected net profit before tax in the range of $15 million to $19 million. This compares to a net loss before tax of $21 million in the prior year.This financial guidance reflects the significant recovery of kiwifruit volumes and expected net earnings of all Seeka’s business in New Zealand and Australia. The company remains focussed on maximising operational net earnings and continuing to reduce debt.Seeka has worked proactively with its banking syndicate over the past two years and expects to be back within long-term banking covenants in the 2024 year. The Board may be able to consider dividends later in the year when the financial forecast is more certain.Seeka is a seasonal business and expects to record a greater proportion of the full year profit in the first six months ended 30 June 2024.The Company will release its 6 month results by 29 August 2024"
The PBT forecast for 2024 of $15m to $19m compares with the previous six years of 9m, 10m, 16m, 23m, 7m and minus 21m.
Not many investors can win in this market. The recent announcements were reasonably positive in my mind. However, in today's environment it has just provided an opportunity for some shareholders exit.
These contracts were offered a while back because growers were leaving. I'm sure that they only have another year to run.
Im not with Seeka, but my friends, neighbours etc that are all took up the contract at the time.
The share deal was this year and was a surprise because from the outside Seeka growers were not expecting another carrot to stay.
With the availability of coolstorage space running low now across the Industry then one would think that any further incentives to growers is not necessary.
Zespri issued it's latest fruit sales forecast last evening. The green growers are heading for a RECORD payout.
All of this helps Seeka with profits from leased orchards.
these fixed price contracts seem quite silly but i guess grower loyalty is competitive.
anyway hows the buds looking ?
It was an unusually warm start to winter for most of the country, with three areas having their warmest June on record.
https://www.1news.co.nz/2024/07/03/a...-in-june-niwa/
Winter chill hours are well up on previous years, so history will tell us that we should be in for a reasonable bud break come September.
The nights have been nice and cold. The grass is still growing which means that the ground is still warm.
Who knows, nature will decide.
Zespri and the Coolstore seem to be happy with how the fruit is storing and selling offshore. 60 percent of the gold has been shipped to date. Fingers crossed that it continues for the rest of the season.
I was offered a free baby lamb today when down at cafe. A good reminder that spring is not far off. And my son sent me pictures of 50 center meters of fresh snow on the skifields, a reminder that we are in winter.
As soon as those interest rates start to drop then farming will fire up again.
might be on the brink of good decline. sitting on big support if it goes :scared: another company with debt issues and poor cashflow
debt levels are way 2 high , based on there last update im picking they have repaid 30 - 35 m in debt which bring there net leverage ratio into the 3.25 the banks have requested but its still way to high even then.
they expanded to quick and got caught out by the bad yr. another bad yr and they would be in a pickle even with reduced debt after this yr as the post harvest operation is the only good division.
probably been better off ditching all the others as there profitabilty and ROA is dismal. using money to buy more orchards for the post harvest division may have been better i reckon.
anyway even looks like the profitabilty of the post harvest division is on a slow decline prob from increased op costs and incentives i reckon so overall a lot of work to do to get things back on track.
i forgot to add on the acc rec carry over from last period so my expectation on debt re- payment might be higher than thought . maybe another 4m ? anyway big support is holding.
some-one on the offer with stock at moment keeping lid on the price.
Well this will wipe out the year's profit. Hardly news though so was this a downgrade?
Quote:
Seeka expects the deferred tax expense impact in the Statement of Profit or Loss to be $13.9m. This deferred tax adjustment has no impact on Seeka’s current trading profitability or cash flows. The value remains subject to external audit at the end of the year.