If KFL fails then the NZ market has failed.
And don't you have to pay tax on the capital gain on the bonds.
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Underline reason of KFL underperforming NZX50G recently is its portfolio is biased towards blue chip GROWTH stocks ...which do take bigger hit when rates rises and vice versa perform better when rates fall . U have just seen one side of the coin ie rates rising part and made your conclusion ...
Now future it will show u what happens to it when rates fall ...which u will see while invested in the safety of bonds and term deposits . Your call mate !!
It seems like your both betting on the same horse.
KFL is heavely weighted in Ift, Mft and Fph.
Mft is under pressure, Fph probably the same.
So sell the lot and buy ift?
Cherry pick the stocks that you like out of their portfolio.
Not hard to replicate some/all of their portfolio, with similar weightings.
This weeks NAV will be very interesting ...again will show huge discount going on !!!
Hopefully MFT will stabilise after HY ...which is soft spot at the moment :cool:
I have never seen assets not getting inflated when rates fall ...but u are bigger expert then me .
Hopefully u remember what happened to stocks when covid led rates fell steeply ....I am sure they were not going up as people were expecting great results from companies while epidemic going on ...they just wanted to lap up any assets as cash was becoming cheap ie rates were dropping
Someone is desperate to get out ...providing great opportunity ? !
After yesterdays almost 3 cents jump in NAV courtesy MFT and others ...its NAV shud be closer to 1.29 currently ...big seller at $ 1.21 with dividend round the corner
Will be watching tomorrows NAV very closely ...may trigger buy back discount at current SP !!!
Can you explain how that works? Cheers
[QUOTE=wkr;1029573]Can you explain how that works? Cheers[/QUOTE
Share Buybacks
The Board of Kingfish has a buyback programme in place whereby Kingfish shares (KFL) are purchased on market by the company within certain parameters determined by the Board. The buyback period runs for 12 months from the date it is announced to the market. We currently have a share buyback policy in place.
Buybacks work well in circumstances where excessive discounts to NAV exist, as it adds value for shareholders by purchasing undervalued shares in the company. Kingfish will only buy back shares if the discount to the last published net asset value, after adjusting for any changes in the S&P/NZX50G index since the last published net asset value, is greater than 6%.
Shares purchased under the policy are held as treasury stock and are available to be utilised under the dividend reinvestment plan, to the extent permitted by law.
1.2958.....
MLN at 4% premium / BRM at par and KFL at 6% discount to NAV ...guess which one is the best value ??
Short term KFL
Long term all of them
I fully agree ...One can make very well diversified Global portfolio using just these 3 funds .
Also once the overhang of supply from a well stocked holder finishes ...KFL shud trade at its normal discount of 1-2% .
For LT holders or income earners its NAV which matters not spot price ...which surely is doing well and have great prospects of appreciation in coming months
Another dismal monthly report ...... lets blame Mainfreight time this time
Wonder what that guy Matt Peek gets paid ..... probably heaps more for what he deserves
Nice he visited some retirement villages to get a feel for how the sector is going
It is a bit rearview mirror stuff in terms of performance.....
Coming out halfway through the following month is a bit late IMO - surely it can come out earlier??
NZX50 up 3.9% from the end of October, and Mainfreight currently up 12.1%.
Cum 2.64 C dividend ...ex 30th Nov ...payable 15th Dec !!
Shud entice bargain / dividend hunters
NAV will be interesting tomorrow - must be just about ready for buy-back ....
NAV won't be too much different from last week.
Maybe $ 1.29 possible ....with what it seems like institutional buying in blue chips ....FPH / EBO / MFT ...all up ...IFT / AIA down ...seems interest shifting to blue chip growth from blue chip defensive plays ....
Almost similar NAV ...close to $ 1.28 ...after divvy out its $ 1.255 ....6% discount is at almost $ 1.18 ...so fund shud be buying ...but maybe they will let retail absorb the supply from Carmel Fishers account ...in long run its better as it diversifies the holdings ...it was too concentrated with her being largest investor ...around 15% at top ...now its maybe less then 4% ...I think !!
But we holders on DRP can still see the silver lining ...this time DRP strike maybe $ 1.135 :cool:
ex dividend NAV is $1.2539 at 30 November. On-market trading is $1.15 buy and $1.16 sell, which should definitely trigger the buy-back opportunity as clearly exceeds 6% discount presently, but it obviously isn't happening just now.
I wonder if a buy back cannot/should not occur during the period a DRIP price is being calculated? And that once the timeframe for computing that has passed we will see a small bounce in, or at least a stabilisation of, current pricing?
Expecting NAV around $ 1.27 tomorrow ....SP at measly $ 1.15 ...widest discount in quite some time ...even wider then Covid sell off !!
Must sell is only a mortgagee sale ...Margin Call or just dont care seller ??? Very interesting time ...
Got some at $ 1.15 today ...will get some at $ 113.5 DRP also ...
My interpretation of on-market trading today is that KFL is buying at $1.16, and possibly also at $1.17. Expect a NZX notice to that effect tomorrow.
hey alok how big is there buy-back $
Not big ...just token buy back I reckon ...but they give signals to market to get in...thus it helps when their buyback notifications start coming
10% discount is just too much ...all because of Carmel selling as she had very big holding ..which they got from years of bonuses paid as stock etc ...reason she left Directorship as she wanted to cash out otherwise too many notifications need put for her sales
PS : If she was ready for this steep discount ...it wud have better for KFL to do a deal with her off market ...why let shareholders panic or suffer ???
NAV is doing better then market but not SP as She needs sell for reasons unknown ...She cud have sold when it was at premium ...but sell at 10% discount is just silly ....Though shares are with ASB Nominees ie cud be margin lending account too ...so maybe Bank selling ...who knows ...mortgagee sale is always beneficial to buyers ...I reckon
KFL
09/10/2023 15:57
CORPACT
NOT PRICE SENSITIVE
REL: 1557 HRS Kingfish Limited
CORPACT: KFL: KFL announces continuation of share buyback programme
9 October 2023
Kingfish Limited announces continuation of share buyback programme
In accordance with Listing Rule 4.14.2, Kingfish announces its intention to
continue its share buyback programme of Kingfish ordinary shares in
compliance with section 65 of the Companies Act 1993.
The buyback programme is for the twelve-month period commencing 1 November
2023 through to 31 October 2024 and allows for the purchase of up to 5% of
the ordinary shares on issue (which is equivalent to a maximum of 16,700,000
shares).
As per the current Share Buyback Policy, Kingfish will only buy back shares
if the discount to the last published net asset value is greater than 6%.
Andy Coupe
Chair
Kingfish Limited
Yes surely can commence ...maybe they already doing as mentioned by Ronny before ...it shud move closer to nav in due course ...normal is 2-4 cents discount
PS : I believe management reads our Forum notes about KFL ...I just want to highlight that they cud have handled with drawdown of big portfolio better ...letting SP reach 10% discount levels is not very good management
I think you'll find rules against off market buyback of own shares. Transactions must be on market for transparency. Imagine for example if the board were to approve the purchase of a holding from a former director ABOVE market pricing. Now that would raise eyebrows. As well as disadvantaging others in the market. So there's your answer.
Just a footnote, if it were the mighty C selling down then at these prices her believers and other investors are buying them at fantastic prices. A real Xmas bargain. Merry Xmas folks, a gift to the faithful past and present. Thanks ma'am, I've loaded up.
Who is talking of above market prices mate ? We are talking of buying her off at 10% discount to the NTA ...thats what she is doing selling on market ...but I agree then we folks wud not have got chance but NAV of our holdings wud have gone up ...which is still gains for us without this mayhem
Whats going on at present maybe scaring many new prospective investors who might think something wrong or cooking here ...as not easy for people to comprehend why shud someone be selling at 10% discount now when market is about to turnaround . Even me had some negative thoughts of some trouble in the company till 777 helped with explanation of her selling her large portfolio ...still it beats me the logic of the hurry and the timing . Had she been doing this to limit the premium during boom was easier to understand ...supply stock to control over excitement ...but keep increasing discount to panic levels is another beast . Management shud have found a more organised way around it thats my simple ask
Yes we all have loaded up ...KFL shud have done that then all wud have been equally rewarded now its only few ...
If I had any cash left I would be a buyer. And would also double up on BRM warrants.
Both represent good value at today's market prices.
Im guessing that the annual bonuses don't factor in the on market share price into the equation.
https://www.nzx.com/announcements/423146
DRP at $1.1308
I have posted previously about selling sufficient shares each quarter once they go ex dividend to yield a sum equivalent to the cash dividend, whilst still participating in the DRIP programme and receiving shares at the discount rate.
I completed this exercise with two holdings managed by me in relation to the current dividend by selling sufficient on market after the ex date at $1.17 (allowing also for the Jarden trade fee of $29.90 incurred ) to yield cash equal to the dividend, and now that the DRIP price is ascertained it is evident one account is 51 shares better off (once allotted on 15 December) and the other 112 shares better off. In both cases with a T + 2 settlement the cash is received days before the actual dividend payment date.
May be only a minimalist gain but it is available four times a year. You need quite a number of shares as a holder for this to be reasonably practicable - say 100k or so - but it doesn't take much effort and is relatively low risk given the 3% discount rate.
DRP $ 1.1304 is even better then my rough calculations ...seems ma'am helped here too with her relentless selling ...hopefully she has enough cash now to celebrate her Xmas ...lol :p
Today is NAV day ...expecting $ 1.28+ ...which will still show more then 6% discount ...got no buyback yet from KFL ...shud start after divvy / DRP shares allotments done ...near term if market is supported which it seems it will ( Expecting a hugely positive Friday on index rebalancing day ) then SP shud move to 1.22 + to get below 6% discount to NAV ...if any can foresee ahead then I think they will agree that by next year this time we will have a much rosier NAV / SP
so no buyback purchases from them ever ?
No need buyback from KFL ...market will close the gap pretty soon ...today all KFL growth stocks big up ...I reckon NAV up 2-3 cents today itself
NZ 10 Y down to almost 4.5% ...US 10Y below 4 % ...this theme of rates coming down fast will get entrenched and markets will ZOOM ...KFL will outperform with its blue chip growth portfolio ....:t_up:
By my calculation 36.95% of shares took part in the DRP.
NZX50 flat today …..but NZX10 down 1%
Suppose that means a bad day for KFL value
The paper says the blue chips suffered from profit taking lol
Todays movement in Kingfish companies.
Looks better than what you are thinking.
AIA.NZ
$8.42
-0.02 / -0.24%
6,564,795
8.40 - 8.60
ATM.NZ
$4.37
+0.02 / +0.46%
1,105,875
4.31 - 4.39
CEN.NZ
$7.82
+0.01 / +0.13%
1,177,983
7.78 - 7.91
DGL.NZ
$6.43
-0.05 / -0.77%
25,117
6.43 - 6.46
EBO.NZ
$34.82
-1.18 / -3.28%
353,669
34.70 - 36.00
FPH.NZ
$23.99
-0.76 / -3.07%
1,210,293
23.96 - 24.75
FRW.NZ
$8.30
+0.28 / +3.49%
171,727
8.02 - 8.30
IFT.NZ
$10.00
-0.05 / -0.50%
823,364
9.91 - 10.075
MEL.NZ
$5.41
+0.1 / +1.88%
3,592,156
5.20 - 5.41
MFT.NZ
$67.11
-1.11 / -1.63%
128,687
67.00 - 68.82
POT.NZ
$5.42
+0.12 / +2.26%
369,824
5.29 - 5.42
RYM.NZ
$5.35
+0.04 / +0.75%
822,470
5.28 - 5.37
SUM.NZ
$10.10
+0.42 / +4.34%
302,998
9.68 - 10.10
VGL.NZ
$1.45
+0.05 / +3.57%
97,156
1.38 - 1.45
VSL.NZ
$8.20
+0.19 / +2.37%
32,718
8.01 - 8.20
Agree with. your assessment ...it seems Index rebalancing punished ie SP got hit for stocks which have done well recently ie FPH / MFT etc while laggards got bought like SUM etc ...out of the blue chips .
It will normalise soon after ...NZX is lagging behind world markets ...2024 will do catch up as rates outlook become clearer . KFL shud do well ...growth blue chips will rise and discount shud narrow ...no wonder Bull is back in it ...super trading mind he got :t_up:
On other channel W69 is very bullish about Fisher funds' close ended listed funds ...he even thinks they can trade at a premium some time in future particularly he talked about BRM with NAV appreciating more then 20% in one year ...amazing !!
I am more bullish on KFL vs BRM ...though both are great buys currently as both have very deep discounts to NAV and in markets which need catch up with world markets ...they will surely when it catches the eyes of big boys ...they at present busy with bigger markets
Need do Poll of closing SP for this year and next ...my estimates are 2023 $ 1.25 and 2024 $ 1.40 !!
$1.21 and $1.50. Watch the narrative change by the next ORC meeting.
Long way to go, but warrants still out of the money.
Today KFL's NAV went up 1 Cent as per my spreadsheet while SP dropped 3 cents ...widening the discount back to 10 % ...I think KFL management have already gone on Xmas holidays ...lol
[QUOTE=bull....;1034664]is the buyback fake news ? i cant find 1 instance of any share buy back[/QUOTE
https://www.nzx.com/announcements/340010
Many many instances ...but like I told u that they not very aggressive with it ever
PS : This time maybe special as they know who is selling and maybe they dont want to help her out or they want stock to be more widely owned by letting her spread to mum and dad investors at a super attractive discount ...no need worry if u have more then a year's time frame in mind ...in next 2-3 years it may even reach par + ...so one gets extra 10% at today's SP to cover next 10 years of Fund charges ....all know KFL portfolio is super blue chips so all win who buys at current levels
Maybe management are just waiting until it's closer to warrant exercise date. Then go hard ensuring that the money comes in.
On other Channel Mr B has called BRM his trifecta find after HLG / TRA ...now BRM ...Mine is KFL but both have similar traits and fund mangers etc ...so even 50/50 will do for me ...
big seller back
This shows the problem of the small market we have in NZ. If you build up too big a holding in almost any stock then disposing of a large quantity is difficult. You end up controlling the price.
She had no choice but to keep getting stock as Bonuses ...so it got built up ...also being part of management she cud not sell otherwise SSH wud have scared the market like TRA ...so after leaving board she started cashing ...but wrong timing ...when it was at 20 cents premium then was the time ...vols were good and it wud have actually helped control unwarranted premium . Saw that companies register again ...it got updated yesterday but still has pretty old data ...as mine is still 2 months or more old .
I was speaking generally alok, not her specifically, nor KFL particularly.
I do appreciate that general problem thats why I hesitate to invest in any small cap or low liquidity stock ...its almost impossible to cash out when u actually want to ...but large caps have enough liquidity always especially during index rebalancing days so u get chance once 3 months at least
Todays NAV as per my spreadsheet went up another cent ...its roughly $ 1.3015 ...above 10% discount now !!
My spread sheet is based on 30th Sept portfolio ...so can have some tracking error ...will realign when Dec portfolio is revealed .
PS : As per Sept newsletter ...NAV was $ 1.30 and then SP was $ 1.26 as on 30th Sept 2023 !!!
U will find the NAV tmrw mate ...today's closing prices ...will update my estimate of NAV after market close . Smells part I dont know ...what can smell ...intentions or fraud or inefficiency ...Its a $ 400 Mil fund independently audited and independent custody of portfolio ...what makes u think something smells mate ??
How can it smell if it is backed by the shares they hold which are worth 10% more? Genuine question. I might go back and read the last report but as I recall they were holding no shares as stock but what was the cash position? Surely a buyback involves some cash? I had like Alok assumed it was who was selling and how it might be viewed.
Kind of agree with your thoughts ...But like I opined sometime back ...KFL management shud do something about it otherwise it makes us investors sleepless when someone says it smells ...though Bull has his reasons for saying so but it can cause stress to long term holders ...KFL management need clarify to make us more comfortable if nothing else
PS : During Covid fall they started issuing NAV twice a week ...that was nice action ...now also need confidence restoring action ...imho
I wonder how they would word that? Do you have any idea how much she must have left to sell?
777 sent me companies register link ...it got updated yesterday but I think that data is still pretty old ...maybe 2-3 months old ...At peak she had almost 15% ...now its still showing 5.72 ...everyday almost she is selling 250K stock since sooo long ...maybe she will finish all in 2023 ...fingers crossed ...though long term its good for us that register is more widespread
I could not find the cash position in the last report. Don't they usually have some on hand for buybacks?
Appreciate your answers, I have held KFL for a long time but I have always looked at it like I would a TD.
they have 6 mil cash on hand last report
Share Buybacks
The Board of Kingfish has a buyback programme in place whereby Kingfish shares (KFL) are purchased on market by the company within certain parameters determined by the Board. The buyback period runs for 12 months from the date it is announced to the market. We currently have a share buyback policy in place.
Buybacks work well in circumstances where excessive discounts to NAV exist, as it adds value for shareholders by purchasing undervalued shares in the company. Kingfish will only buy back shares if the discount to the last published net asset value, after adjusting for any changes in the S&P/NZX50G index since the last published net asset value, is greater than 6%.
Shares purchased under the policy are held as treasury stock and are available to be utilised under the dividend reinvestment plan, to the extent permitted by law.
why they not doing buyback when this is the reason it was implemented and they state on there site buyback will be done to protect investors returns and enhance value. does not install confidence to me when they dont do as they say
It does say 3% cash 30/11 which at MC 396ml makes 11.88ml. At a guess they have used a fair bit of that for the last div?
What would be worst case scenario? They delist and sell today at $1.30?
Nothing that alarming will happen ...we had 22 cents premium ...nothing happened ...now we have 13 cents discount....slowly it will get bridged ...give it another 6 months ...normal is what was on 30th Sept when NAV was $ 1.30 ...SP was $ 1.26 ...
PS : They get cash dividends also ...FPH / MFT / IFT recently paid divvies
Also they have around 40% people on DRP so cash outflow is not what u thinking ...overall they pay 8% cash to 60% of holders and they get almost 3.5% cash divvy on full portfolio ...just back of the envelope calculations ...so their yearly cash shortfall is just 1-1.5% only ...for which they do portfolio churning ...easy to manage
No not alarmed at all. I just wanted a better understanding of something I have taken for granted. When it was at a serious premium over $2 I was more concerned for anyone buying. Rates lower for longer they said, prep for neg rates they told the banks...
Looking back to Dec 21 it looks like around a 30c premium.
The only REASON I can think of why KFL management is always reluctant to on market BUYBACK is that it leads to reduction of corpus ie opposite of successful warrant issue ...so they being pretty mean in trying to save few millions of AUM thus fund charges and let the discount keep widening over their own announced threshold of 6% ...at least they shud stop it at 6% with all their might ...NZX50 goes up and KFL SP goes down for so long ...its not just few days ...ACTION is surely warranted ASAP
I think action can wait till after NYs
Rough estimates of tmrw NAV $ 1.2985 .....
https://www.nzx.com/announcements/423956
estimate was little off the mark still we have 9% discount going on a great growth blue chips portfolio ...
PS : 4% / 7% / 9% ...discounts for MLN / BRM / KFL
https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/attach...9&d=1703190178
Shud help KFL do well in 2024 ....courtesy our mate W69
Love it thanks…gotta laugh at Harbour picks….could only find 3 measly companies to recommend
They might have to let some of their staff go lol
Ive certainly been reducing nzx exposure and increasing Aus and international lately.
Thanks to all the regular posters for keeping us minions informed with your thought provoking posts
Have a nice Xmas
Bored yesterday so pulled out the numbers on KFL and did the old Z-score analysis ......a measure of whether an investment trust is a buy or sell
KFL is still a definitely a BUY