Agreed. Suppose you want as well to pick up some more below $1 - do you :D?
Printable View
Me Too !!!:t_up:
Shocking sales depth ... I think we spooked the sellers with our comments :t_down:
Come on guys - I am sure we can do better: Just imagine what terrible things the gummit can do to retirement villages and age care providers. Sure - they started with the young people and with housing (I guess they can't be everywhere at once - can they) - and look at EVO (child care) and STU, FBU, MPG what Labors attention means for the industry.
Surely - age care must be next :p.
I would not invest in this share no growth prospects.......... Does that help?
It’ll be $2 by Christmas
Certain as .....winner says BUY
Always a good contrarian sign
Gosh look what I started and now the bid above $1.01 is even stronger :( That'll teach me not to start silly barking !
I heard OCA was going to 'break out' once it breached this 101 resitance or whatever its called
Still waiting for that 'break out' ....do punters just make stuff like that to give them themselves the warm fuzzies ...and hope
No one makes predictions(or as many) like you do w69, but all good fun ehh , not to be taken seriously:)
Too true. The prevailing narrative of retirement stocks being grossly under valued by the market has been in play on here for 12 months or more. Are we at the point where there is acceptance that they offer a good entry point but with little chance of exponential share price growth (sheesh, look at the nature of the product. These ain't oil plays) in the short to medium term? At the very least, the SUM puns have surely run their course... please.
I just heard on the radio, is OCA reporting at some point this week? I think Thursday?
Financial year ends 31st May so no full year results this week
Might be giving out some good news ....share price needs something to shock it out of its malaise ...all the hype on here ain’t done anything for months months .....not guite a dog but close to it.
Its a sleepy one but looks to have good breeding so might bark up a storm when it awakes. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jS0BVaXAInI
Thanks guys, will be interesting to see how ARV goes tomorrow and MFT
Another push to 1.04, is this off Arvidas response?
I think we’re finally onto something here guys - All that waiting and here we go! :) :)
Tempted to think that we might have the early signs of a breakout looking at the chart but until that overhang is dealt with...
Been a good year though. Listed about one year ago at 79 cps and up 31% since then.
Second year might see similar gains too in my opinion but not until they dive down first to $1.01 to give me a fill with my buy order :D
Hi Guys, what do you mean by overhang?
A rumor is that Maq fimly believe their portion is worth a min of $2.50 and they aint selling.
Nor would I if I were them!
100 mill+ profit in 1st year!
Paying close to 5% in 1st year!
1 billion + in assets!.
OCA Browns Bay and Milford are gorgeous---go have a look.
Liz and Earl and the new joker all beavering away.
Nope---if I was Maq I would be a nutcase to sell.
The trouble is at the moment it's just a rumour Warren and the market wants certainty.
Hi Team,
Sorry another question, "Macquarie roughly hold 57% and the escrow arrangement is in place until the first business day after OCA releases it's results for the year ended 31 May 2018. Last year the results were released on July 27th."
What does this mean in laymans terms. Does this mean they cannot sell until that date?
The Final Countdown
https://youtu.be/9jK-NcRmVcw
It is getting exciting :)
Flip the coin
Bit of TA .....just as well this time is different
F4T,you are sentenced to 2 months confinement in a falling knife proof straitjacket and helmet with that execrable, sickly sentimental MOR song on repeat 24 hours a day. All the best for OCA though, IPO holder here.:D
[QUOTE=warren;716546]I know I know I know.
That’s why I rolled out the facts behind their view !
I am a very happy owner and it can go down a bit and then up. Many reasons I see this with a favourble share to own. Off course biased because I am deeply invested. It's a long play with favourable mid term opportunities. Happy holding
I am also a very happy holder with a ++ size holding. This is my retirement fund and I will hold 20+ year unless something drastically changes. Also have Summerset which is almost 100% up on when I purchased. I find these two fantastic value and do see SUM catching up to RYM sp very quickly. Couta may disagree and his knowledge is great on these companies, but within 5 years Summerset will surpass RYM unless share splits occur....... if not sooner
$1.05 now - that is like pretty high stuff
As high as it was pre half year results
Pretty sure we won't see below $1 again, then again I've said this so many times only to see it just dip under it by a fraction I probably shouldn't be so sure
...it has moved. A 1-2 cent + movement per month is fine by me.
Yes if this is going to generate 30% growth or thereabouts per annum then a 2 cps movement per month is justified and seeing as they're reporting next month the coming month or two could be a LOT more than that. This time I think TJ has this right and we're very unlikely to see <$1 again.
You guys always get too excited about a OCA ... unfortunately like viagra the effects seem to have worn off and it's gone back down again now =P
I guess the question is was December the anomaly or is now the anomalous price fix ? I would strongly argue now especially given the strength of the sector since December (SUM was only about $5 back then by way of example). The other thing is the stock has definitely been de-risked as the company have confirmed guidance recently.
Zooming out and looking at the big picture since it listed a year ago at 79 cps its up exactly 24 cents since then = 2 cents per month but clearly not in a linear manner :)
My gut tells me this is VERY cheap for this sector seeing the PE's its peer group are trading on are much higher and their SP performance has been vastly better in the last six months. Further, OCA's late stage care reputation is second to none and that includes RYM.
I topped up with a few more today. Forward PE, (soon to be trailing PE) of just 12 is very very good value. Patient investors will be well rewarded in the medium to long term in my opinion.
It was a $1.03 at end of last August (seeing we talking monthly prices)
To get a sector (peers) average PE there has to be a few below average and OCA is one of those. Looks like OCA has been awarded the label of a sector laggard....hard label to break free from
I’ll give it another week ..or two
Don't forget mate that ARV had a nice run-up of just on 10% just before their result announcement. Might we see the same thing in late July with OCA ?
I think 1 cent north per week average, for the next 7 weeks, (not necessarily in a steady straight line :) ), is quite possible between now and report date in late July.
That was back in early Jan
Couts and me reckon RYM:SUM:OCA shareprice ratio should be about 10:5:1
Was true back in January ....but not now for OCA
Been a bit slack in spite of all the good news
OCA should be $1.20 by know ...and Beagle thinks $1,12 in seven weeks time pretty good
Will it ever catch up ...or will it just prove that the Winner Couts Theorem is a load of **** by always being a laggard.
Given ARV and MET are trading around 16 times current underlying earnings, I reckon OCA should be on a similar multiple and reach $1.35 very very soon!
On NPAT ...real profits I think respective PEs are -
SUM 7.4 using Dec 18 reported profits
MET 8.0 using 4traders forecast $163m to year ended June 18
OCA 11.2 using IPO profit forecast to May 18
RYM 15.4 using March 18 reported profits
ARV 8.4 using March 18 reported profits
Maybe the market doesn’t price this sector on underlying earnings after all.
More consistently around real profits ...with OCA and RYM most ‘expensive’ for.want of another word
If these shares were priced based on reported profits inclusive of all property revaluations then SUM would be a lot higher than it is today as a PE of 7.4 for a company that's growing earnings at an average rate of 45% per annum for the last 6 years...those sort of numbers never go together...EVER ! Underlying earnings it is and the market slowly starting to do its SUM's on SUM. No worries, $9+ within a year.
Me too and dont forget to tell us when you are selling truckloads, or is that what you really mean now:confused::t_up:
So...on that theory of 1 SUM = 5 OCA and with SUM at $7.50 OCA should be $1.50 !!!!
But I'm not greedy so lets go back 6 months and SUM were $5.25 and OCA were $0.97, extrapolate that 5.41 : 1 ratio out and we get $1.39 fair value for OCA.
Lets split the difference and say OCA should be $1.40 !
I may just sell out at $10 per share until then I stay put
LOL, no this is a great retirement stock in more ways than one. Holding for long term growth and growing dividends too, estimated at 5.5% gross next year.
Some guy on here reckons you should look for companies that can grow dividends over the years and I reckon he's bang on the money.
Close 107 pretty good ...can't complain
Another good day tomorrow and we are at 110 ... a few days after I predicted
Momentum is growing ...cmon guys keep on buying
Taking a simplistic view, the quality of the company. The board of directors, management team, staff, quality of villages, reputation etc.
The higher quality company will normally have the highest PE. i.e. Ryman. They got the longest track record and trust of the market.
OCA look to have top notch board of directors and management team with a solid plan. I'd like to think the quality of OCA is at least as good as MET and ARV if not better.
I suppose it's FY19 outlook we've been lacking along with a consistent set of results, so market hasn't been as confident in OCA compared to SUM and RYM. We will find out more in 7 weeks time!
Also ARV since listing took about 15 months before it really took off. We could see the same thing with OCA here.
[QUOTE=JayRiggs;717578]Taking a simplistic view, the quality of the company. The board of directors, management team, staff, quality of villages, reputation etc.
The higher quality company will normally have the highest PE. i.e. Ryman. They got the longest track record and trust of the market.
OCA look to have top notch board of directors
Ummm new Director " he has also established construction and aged care businesses. Mr Tomlinson established Qualcare before it was sold into the Oceania Group in early 2008 and he was a director of Oceania Healthcare from 2008 until 2016. He is currently a director of, and has a shareholding interest in, Oceania Healthcare"
Top notch long history in the BUSINESS and he plonks down $3,500 000 for 3,504 260 shares the day he comes on board -------this is my sort of leader who will double + his money (and mine) as well as making a lot of elderly, gentle and often very infirm people happy with wonderful care and employing 3000+ outstanding staff.
[QUOTE=warren;717581]I hope people will continue to love this great company which maybe one of the last affordable ones at these prices looking at the future. I have a ++ shareholding in this company, but will advise my partner to invest her money into this share as I think within 2 more years I expect it to be worth around $2 per share
Alan Isaac director paid $1.09 for lots more shares immediately after the release of the half year result way back in January 2018. I do genuinely believe there is real value in the current price especially given RYM, SUM and ARV have run quite considerably north of their SP level's of 5-6 months ago. I think they could do 10-11 cps underlying next year, (heck they might even go close to 10 cps this year as they seemed very confident of meeting the IPO forecast of underlying earnings of 8.42 cps) and all going well the market could ascribe them a multiple of 14-15 by reporting date in July 2019 as they prove up their business case and assuming by then the overhang is gone. Possible upside potential to as much as 11 x 15 = $1.65 in just the next 12-14 months in my opinion.
My rating BBB (Beagle busy buying) :)
Looks like a feel good build up, knees up, sun warming, backslapping, caching, sort of thread has developed on here all in aannnttiiicccipat i-o-nn. It really is the secret, selling when everyone is buying, i may think about doing that tomorrow too.:cool:
Too much Hot Coffee, Hot Copper, got to be cynical when it comes to the smell of money Rog.
F4T Im not a trader on NZX stocks like some on here are , and plan to hold these awhile hopefully, from IPO. I have learnt that pump and dumps happen all the time everywhere. One example buy up big , get set on a stock before its results, then spruik it up , promote it pump it up, then sell just before results and move on to your next one. It happens a lot and if folks on here dont believe or know this they are naive to put it politely. From time to time i will refresh this tactic as i have in the past, when i see a rave up happening as a caution esp to newbies.
There are Investors and traders on here,with very different agendas.
I'm holding these long term, bought just after the IPO at 81 cents when the IPO listing had been de risked and added at various points along the way including yesterday at $1.06. As mentioned previously I see this as a value play in this sector.
Shares at 1.07 chomped up this morning, now we on 1.08-1.09 buy/sell.
This little pup starting to find his feet.
Anyone able to do a screenshot of the buy/sell wait list?
OCA screenshot
Attachment 9722
Thanks Team,
Interesting indeed.
Fair enough. I am also not a trader (I would say that wouldn't I). I am long term focused as I have many years before official retirement age ... 30+ years to go. I don't have time to trade and find it a bad way to increase nervousness. Too much of a gamble.
I started investing when I was 16. Instead of putting a majority of job earnt cash into toys I did term deposits, bought some share, made some money, lost some money... etc.
This OCA has me excited and after now easily doubling from SUM others. .. I am enthusiastic and optimistic about OCA. Even if it stagnated some time. Dividend and long term. Banks are pretty useless these days with term deposits and safer investments. Crypto is not something I can be bothered with.
I like what I see. Did the same with CHA, RYM, 42Below, THL (curse my sell!), PBL, GXH, HBL, AIR, and a few others. Good fun. Got burnt a few times RBC, RAK, PGW (double curse my sell) (GFC, the big fear generator - taught me a lesson or 2), yet those times are turning into less and less frequent as I have changed strategy and noticed time has often been the best indicator with lower avg returns and better long term outcomes. Graphing potential. Brand reception. Demographics. ... global situations.
Supply and demand. New Zealand. To me, what I notice... ownership is what all the big players are getting out of those impatient or provoked selling too early and not waiting for their fruits to mature.
Also interesting to ponder who and where the next merger and buy out will be. ... health care hasn't had much buying up from what I see... it'll only be a matter of time. Australia often likes to buy out Kiwi brands and companies. ...because Kiwis generally do it better. Poor Macpac got bought up recently.... fair enough for the owner if he is going to live life and enjoy the sacrifices with running a successful business.
Happy weekend people... I am a even happier holder. Better get back to cofinement
Hi
I have been to the OCA Browns Bay construction site. It was really awesome, beautiful beach front site and it made me decide to keep the share at least 5 years or more no matter what. It seems most of the other retirement shares grow up x2 or x3 for the time-frame of 3-5 years. Happy OCA holder.
I have been keeping an eye on this as well, and - like several of OCA's villages - it, although small, was well run, well regarded, premium spot and a target for bigly redevelopment - it was one of the reasons I brought at IPO.
Let us not forget I was one of the few on here that have been genuinely positive about OCA since day 1, many others have jumped on the bandwagon since then!
Pays to do your SUM's carefully and work out who which horses have pedigree breeding. No question they had to float this company very cheap just on a year ago to attract enough interest but the consequent effect was you could buy SUM other companies for a bargain price at that time as this float sucked the wind out of the incumbent players sails. SUM up 50% from ~ $5 a year ago and has been the outperformer of this sector over the last year. Was a rough 2017 though with it hitting a low of $4.60 in November 2017 which really tested some people's resolve.
Looking ahead OCA the dark unproven horse of this field now though for 2018 / 2019 and trading on (rough guess on my part seeing as 31 May 2018 results haven't even been released yet) a FY19 underlying PE of about 10-11 it looks quite cheap. If they can prove their business model and the outlook all looks good there's plenty of scope for possible strong sector outperformance in the year ahead.
Disc: Hedging my bets for the year ahead by trimming SUM a little recently and reallocating to topping up my investment in OCA. Just about a bob each way now although I still have a preference for well proven performers.
If we can get rid of that overhang and everything goes to plan, OCA might be the one having a turn in returning 50% for shareholders in the year ahead.
Isn’t it likely the overhang will just become another overhang
I don’t think this perceived overhang is holding OCA back at the moment .....probably a few punters with too much time on their hands thinking too much .....and maybe looking for a reason why the share price is not rocketing ahead
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/...ectid=12066107
And Northbridge is not for profit...
there are of course risks in the retirement sector so one should not completely overdo it in terms of portfolio allocation etc....
I tend to think these risks arise from regulation or investigation but that said if the govt cracks down too hard they will create an enormous problem for themselves
1.09, not bad, nearly at an all-time high.
Enjoying these gains as of recent OCA friends? I would be very interested to know (if people feel comfortable sharing), how many shares do you have in OCA? I have 20,000 and it's my biggest holding.
Ive got some from 1 to 20 million meaning what has number got to do with anything other than 20,000 sits in your risk reward and% holding in the NZX component of your portfolio in this sector. Each investment portfolio pretty unique depending on your age, risk, and mindset, eg a trader or an investor.Comparing can be misleading imo:confused: etc.Does that help?:)
Not a big fan of disclosing on a semi-anonymous forum absolute numbers, and lets face it - they are irrelevant to understand where the individual poster is coming from. What does matter are relative sizes - and OCA is in my (though quite diversified) portfolio XXL sized.
Just to put this into perspective ... If all my holdings would be XXL sized, than I would hold roughly 10 different stocks ... but obviously - they are not and I hold more ;);
This is my 3rd biggest holding currently. My biggest holding is the 5 ostriches which should have about 10 babies which will make me so much money I wont know what to do with