sure has a negative correlation to the rest of the market !
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sure has a negative correlation to the rest of the market !
Is their production 24/7?
Is their Auckland building expansion complete?
If not is it continuing now?
Day & afternoon production shifts & warehouse night shift jobs advertised
No production line staff advertised so fully staffed?
https://www.workhere.co.nz/company/f...hcare/about-us
https://jobs.fphcare.com/search/page...nd%2Cjobs.html
https://www.seek.co.nz/Fisher-&-Payk...amaki-Auckland
"WHAT HAPPENS IN ICU?
"In ICU, various treatments can support these more serious breathing problems. This includes high-flow humidified oxygen, delivered via a nasal mask.
The oxygen is warmed and its humidity artificially increased so as to avoid uncomfortable dryness. It is gently pumped into the lungs at a comfortable rate that still allows the patient to speak and eat"
".An analysis of adult Covid-19 patients treated at two Wuhan hospitals found that 50 of the 191 cases studied required ICU treatment.Of these 50 ICU patients, 41 received high-flow humidified oxygen, 33 were intubated, and 3 received extracorporeal membrane oxygenation.
Only 8 of the 41 patients treated with high-flow oxygen survived, and just one of the intubated patients"
So around 20 %of patients in hospital needed FPH unit?
https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/hea...lasting-damage
There are other manufacturers high-flow humidified oxygen, delivered via a nasal mask.
In google search FPH Optiflow comes up first
I would assume the survival rate includes all those other conditions
https://sendy.tarawera.co.nz/l/J6oLV...YqHAxZmUmsZB4Q
Competition.?
???
For Amazon or FPH?
"Instacart workers highlights the impact of the coronavirus outbreak on the grocery delivery business, where workers are worried about their safety as they try to meet a surge in demand for online groceries"
whoever bought instead of sold (I though it was in the Direct Broking thread) yesterday wont be complaining today!
Wasn't brave enough to take the plunge at around $25 - would have been a nice earner even on my very modest probable purchase -how higher can it go, which more than 1 of us has been saying since about $10 or so
I’m sure FPH will benefit from the current situation but if you think it’s to the same level as a biotech involved in this space you are dreaming
Hospitals aren’t going to be stockpiling their products specifically
Great company and great products and many more to come, but the PE ratio is way too high for the growth it is hoping to achieve. I would rather go 100% in ATM than in FPH. Still this company is a great company, but I would not be buying unless it was lower than $18 per share. Just my opinion and I have been wrong so far as everyone is buying their boots full
Note that FPH units are also used in non-ICU settings as well (i.e. to avoid deteriorating further, or in recovery), and for both nasal high flow as well as intubated patients. And yes, there are other competitors products. So it is hard to estimate the % of patients on FPH units.
nm ...................
When the dust settles, and the hospitals revert to business as usual, there are going to be so many ventilators sloshing around that I wonder if FPH will be able to sell any for the next 10 years or so.
I assume that the ventilators being produced by unconventional suppliers (Ford, GM, Dyson, etc.) will be basic models - so FPH's models may well be better and still have a niche market.
Any thoughts?
Agree. I think many countries have been caught on the hop and will decide (& rightly so) that the production of medical equipment (ventilators, masks etc,) is in the national interest and will start making their own.
I think this could be true. However, in terms of not able to sell in the future because there is an excess, that is less of a concern. FPH makes humidifers not ventilators and the main revenues come from consumables, not the device itself. So I think while the demand will drop back, it won't be as bad as those who make ventilators.
The bigger effect may come from less people having flu or respiratory illness due to the awareness and prevention.
The thing is, will Covid19 ever go away? Or just the severity / impact is reduced? Even with flu vaccines, it is still affecting so many people. Covid 19 is more contagious with longer incubation time. Can we really eliminate it or just keep it under control?
Grant Robertson was just asked if FPH had been approached with regards to making Ventilators. He neither confirmed nor denied
After having worked at FPH for several years, unless the regulations of "ventilators" are relaxed compared to other medical devices (especially FDA compliance), it would be nigh on impossible for FPH to change their product lines and gear up to produce ventilators ... the amount of product design, testing, quality checking, documentation that needs to go into producing a new product is absolutely impossible to churn out ... a vaccine would be out long before FPH could get a production line making ventilators ...
Unless of course the rules and regulations are relaxed :)
Thank goodness some one on here reads their reports before posting ;)
Thanks Champion.
[QUOTE=Onion;804708]So all those ventilators might need a nice FPH humidifier attached.
Nevertheless I’ve cashed up half.[/QUOTE]
yep I cashed up some as well but I just know I will regret it! :rolleyes:
Thanks for posting this interesting link Blue Skies
"This time of year our financial controllers in our global offices would
usually be dedicated to completing year end reporting. Because of the
COVID-19 pandemic, many of these people are currently working remotely -
assisting with customer enquiries, getting product into the hands of
customers and providing operational support."
No doubt trying to cope with unprecedented demand
Yes , flat out, all hands on deck.
"At the present time, we have nearly 5,000 people around the world who are
focussed on meeting the increased demand for our respiratory products, which
are being used in the treatment of patients with COVID-19," said Chief
Financial Officer Lyndal York."
fph
FPH is one of those safe stocks imo where instos etc park their funds until buying signals appear of other beaten up stocks to rebuy, top up , load up on.
And that's exactly the time when FPH's shares will drop ... just imagine a flock of instos pushing the sell button and retail shareholders noticing that they sit on a share with a backward PE of 135 while other shares at that stage might be available for single digit PE's. It is as well probably the time when everybody in the world has lots of idle ventilators sitting around - and no, they won't need that many of the masks either.
The trick will be to sell close to, but prior to this point in time.
I thought that we had established that FPH's forte is humidifiers, not ventilators?
Well, sure. Just ask yourself why their business is booming that much at the moment.
If the reasons for this boom are in any way connected to the current virus boom, than I am wondering why they should survive the latter?
Of course will FPH still have business afterwards, but it will return from the current boom to its normal growth path, and at that stage the SP might look really dear.
Don't forget that the NZD has weakened a lot against the USD, and hence it'll benefit FPH's bottom line.
Only around 15%? of Covid 19 patients hospitalized need ventilators
There are a lot of benefits using F & P therapies for Covid 19 patients
https://www.fphcare.com/nz/covid-19/
Nasal High Flow Therapy
Using Optiflow™ Nasal High Flow to treat COVID‑19 patients.
Heated Humidification
The use of heated humidification for healthcare professionals managing COVID‑19 patients.
Efficiency of Filters and F&P Evaqua™ 2
The viral and bacterial filtration efficiency of Fisher & Paykel Healthcare Filters and F&P Evaqua™ 2 Circuits.
Noninvasive (NIV) Therapy
Using Noninvasive (NIV) therapy to treat COVID-19 patients.
Optiflow THRIVE™ Product Conversion
Adapting existing Fisher & Paykel Healthcare products to treat COVID-19 patients.
CPAP Therapy for OSA
COVID-19 and CPAP therapy for Obstructive Sleep Apnea: Guidance for CPAP Users and Healthcare Professionals.
Remember:88 % of hospital revenue are consumables,recurring revenue,only 12% is hardware
https://resources.fphcare.com/resour...ear-update.pdf
It seems to indicate triage,inflammatory marker blood test,leave isolated at home with F& P nasal cannula produce the best outcomes
https://time.com/5818547/ventilators-coronavirus/
Only 20 % survive intensive care & ventilators
Perhaps that's because only the most advanced/severe cases get to ICU and ventilators?
No argument there. I hold tight to my FPH!
:cool:
Actually in the UK, some of the most severe cases do not get ventilators, as ventilators are being rationed to those they think may stand a better chance of surviving.
Thankfully we have had a government that did not muck around as much as Boris Johnson's government did. He acted as though he was in charge of Heath Service that had been as well resourced as Germanys.
Here's a NY Times on the rationing of ventilators in the USA
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/15/o...ng-blacks.html
FPH was the worst performing stock in the NZX50 in April ....and it was one of the best months for the NZX50 since it was formed.
Incredible
Mid point of upgraded forecast is $265m after tax = 46.1 cps and at today's closing price this puts FPH on a PE for the year ended 31/3/2020 of 61.5
eps last year was 40.62 cps so growth rate for 2020 = 46.1 / 40.62 = 13.5%
If we zoom out and use the ol Ben Graham model of a zero growth PE of 8.5 (call that 11.5 because risk free rate is 1%, was 4% in his day) = 2g I see a fair PE of 11.5 + (2 x 13.5) = 38.5.
Looks expensive but then again it always has and probably always will be. Nice uptrend on the chart...a rare thing on the NZX at present. Existing holders should probably ignore the expensive FA and ride the TA uptrend until the bend in the end. GLTH.
Yep. Unreal. I bought my first lot at $4.25 a few years ago (can´t remember exactly when) and we´ve had constant comments on here saying ever since then that they´re overvalued. Don´t take me wrong, I´ve thought so myself on many (most) occassions but Mr Market never seems to agree. My biggest mistake with these was to ever sell any !
I see AIA could be a good buy on PE of 41,2021 PE 199,2022 PE 50 but somehow I'd rather have FPH
Price is what you pay,value is what you get, someone knowledgeable once said
Well done to you for holding for so long and regularly reviewing your portfolio.
It'll be interesting to see how it plays out over the next year what with obvious substantial extra demand with Covid 19, (only a very small amount of which would have fallen into the FY20 year) so should give a huge boost to FY21 as will the lower currency. I bought a bunch of Kingfish warrants the other day for a few cents, not exercisable til March 2021 and FPH is their equal largest holding at 16% of their portfolio, also ATM. I guess I potentially have a piece of the pie for a very low cost outlay but to be honest I think there's at least a 50% chance the warrants will be worthless at exercise time so who knows, I might have jack, time will tell.
For what its worth I think there's at least a 50% chance the whole market could fall 30-40% in the next year. Whether this could stay immune from that sort of a serious second leg to a bear market is anyone's guess.
I wonder how FPHs factories are faring:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...covid-19-fight
Not that FPH make ventilators
" Demand for ventilators has also boosted U.S. imports from Mexico, with a 36.2% year-over-year rise in February. Respiratory care equipment maker Fisher & Paykel FPH.NZ accounted for much of the increase. Panjiva also linked some shipments to electronic components maker Flex FLEX.O , which reportedly has committed to producing ventilator parts in response to high demand"
https://www.stockopedia.com/share-pr...07:nL1N2BV18C/
"Fisher & Paykel has put on extra shifts and hired more workers at its factories in both Auckland and Tijuana in Mexico as demand from hospitals and government agencies jumps as the number of coronavirus cases around the world escalates."
"Factories were not yet running at full capacity, and could ramp up further.
Along with respiratory humidifiers, the company also makes medical consumables such as the nasal cannulas and mask interfaces used in invasive and non-invasive ventilation treatment of hospital patients.
Fisher & Paykel Healthcare is preparing to open a new building at its Auckland operations, and has two buildings across a 41,000 square metre footprint in Tijuana."
https://www.afr.com/companies/health...0200317-p54as9
https://www.spglobal.com/marketintel...to-us-57935919
With the recent high volume of shares traded average $25m to 30m a day, FPH is a good trading share which is quite volatile. One can make a tidy profit any day by buying low and sell high
Do you think that Mexico's lockdown is not stopping production for FPH? I wonder if the Auckland factory opening is a sign that they are reducing risk?
Re Mexico who knows but no word of it stopping production.
Auckland factory has been on the plan pre Covid so not around the risk of Covid
More likely around spreading risk of trade disruptions Mexico/USA ?
So Mexico production goes elsewhere ,NZ goes to USA if I remember rightly. Ridiculous hugh
Deleted due to duplication
Wow, story going around the World at moment CNN, Daily Mail etc, about how a man saved his Covad stricken father's life (after he had been given up on & sent home from hospital with doctors saying his lungs would collapse if put on a Ventilator due to the poor condition of his lungs & the pressure from the Ventilator ) by using the gentle oxygen flow of a CPAP Sleep Apnea machine to ease his breathing.
Not sure if it was one of FPH's but they make the gold standard in these.
It quotes Warrington Hospital & a few others as achieving amazing results using these specifically for this purpose. But theres still only a few hospitals in the NHS with them.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...pital-die.html
Sure is very interesting reading Blue Skies. Could be a boost for FPH :-)
Old news but
From what I read better than ventilators that damage fragile lungs infected with Coronavirus
"https://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/news/article.cfm?c_id=2&objectid=12324425
"Generally speaking, 40 per cent to 50 per cent of patients with severe respiratory distress die while on ventilators, experts say. But 80 per cent or more of coronavirus patients placed on the machines in New York City have died, state and city officials say.
Higher-than-normal death rates also have been reported elsewhere in the United States, said Dr. Albert Rizzo, the American Lung Association's chief medical officer.
Similar reports have emerged from China and the United Kingdom. One UK report put the figure at 66 per cent. A very small study in Wuhan, the Chinese city where the disease first emerged, said 86 per cent died."
"But increasingly, physicians are trying other measures first. One is having patients lie in different positions — including on their stomachs — to allow different parts of the lung to aerate better. Another is giving patients more oxygen through nose tubes or other devices. Some doctors are experimenting with adding nitric oxide to the mix, to help improve blood flow and oxygen to the least damaged parts of the lungs."
Recently I suggested a fair forward PE for FPH was about 2/3 rd's of what the market is according it, suggesting the shares are about 50% higher than they should be.
It seems Forsyth Barr agree and have a target price 12 months hence of $18.50. https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/...ectid=12331228
I don't follow closely but I have never understood why the market accords FPH a PE so far in advance of what would appear to be warranted by their moderate growth rate.
I don't invest where value is vastly removed from where I see it so will stay out.
Guru wealth advisor Mark mentioned RYM would be over $60 if they hadn’t done a share split.
And mentioned there’s a few managers who only buy shares over 10 bucks because they’ve must have done well to get there
https://craigsip.com/insights/overvi...ut%20you%20off
Talking if RYM being $60 ...oops only $12 odd these days I see the RYM:SUM relativity still true.
Some things never change - FPH and RYM always perceived to be over priced and MET always seen as so so cheap
FPH share price reflects (and rewarded for) it’s high ROIC of over 20%
Huge amount of excess returns over its cost of capital Is good ...and results in it trading at high P/B valuations (conversely economic value destroying companies generally tend to trade below NTA)
Mind you I think that FPH price is stretched to the point where the market is still expected even greater improvement than they have achieved in the past.
I've been a shareholder of FPH from day 1 and as far as I can remember the PE ratio has always been high. Analysts had often recommended "reduce" or "sell" and I was foolish enough to have followed their lead. I eventually realised that each time I sold, the share price kept on climbing to new highs. Hence, each time I'd sold in the past I'd regretted those decisions. I think there are quite a few people who share my experiences here.
Hkg — see returns on invested capital ...like making heaps out what capital is invested in the business is key
Higher excess returns over cost of capital higher market value
FPH ROIC greater then 20%
Cool eh
Nothing is known about the status of recovered cases (it has taken a back seat to other efforts). importantly the US military has banned recovered coronavirus patients as recruits until more is known about lung function and other health issues.
There's a possibility there will be long term demand for these products even through 2030. :)
Furthermore, there have been over 4 million cases worldwide so far & for those who have recovered, unfortunately in many cases there has been evidence of permanent lung damage to some degree.
That suggests a potentially massive increase in future demand for the sorts of products FPH make.
Covid19 is just a new & even more deadly one of a number of respiratory Coronaviruses to come along like SAARS & MERS. Governments will have to take the risk of new respiratory virus epidemics appearing in future much more seriously & ensure their hospitals are much better equipped to deal with future outbreaks. The low pressure oxygen delivery sleep apnea devices FPH make seem to be better for ventilating acute Covid patients than the standard hospital ventilators.
So I think demand will only increase & can't see it easing off in the slightest. Only question is the valuation but as a long term holder I'm happy with it. :)
According to The Herald, AIA reports that air-freighted exports of NZ respiratory products increased nearly 400% in March. Now who makes them, I wonder?
;)
Did everyone else miss it?
Eagle Beagle must have by the sounds of it
It doesn't say whos.
No guesses?
$1,000,000 for the flight?
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/a...ectid=12320809
Dollar took a hit (-1.1%) on Friday so expect FPH to be a strong performer today (and wow what a run it has had). Will we see a new all time high closing price?
Interesting to see what FPH have been up to in a few days. SP increasing a bit in anticipation.
Just a lazy $32.00 close.
All time high on my chart , bang on $32.00. Results Monday.
Im curious about next years results. Theyve got all these machines out there, but if they're not going to use them after covid, they wont be buying the consumables.
Potential patient numbers keep increasing
"Such is the scale of the pandemic that the WHO is warning of a worldwide shortage of oxygen concentrators needed to keep severe sufferers breathing."
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/new...ectid=12343595
CPAP machines such as the FPH one are already being used to treat Covid patients, & the gentle air pressure & oxygen delivery has been found in some cases to be better for lungs damaged by Covid than the higher pressure respirators.
There was also a story about a group of doctors & engineers in the US who found it straightforward to modify a CPAP machine for Covid patients, working to get FDA approval, as there is now such a massive need & shortage of respiratory medical devices.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...pital-die.html
"Controlled oxygen delivery (when required)
Oxygen from a concentrator or cylinder can be added. An in-built ultrasonic analyzer requires no calibration, service, or replacement."
https://www.fphcare.com/nz/hospital/...irvo-2-system/
$287m - not bad....! But still a PE of circa 65 and dividend yield of 0.85%.....
https://www.nzx.com/announcements/355359
Record Result for FPH; Net Profit up 37%
29/6/2020, 8:37 amFLLYRRecord Result for Fisher & Paykel Healthcare; Net Profit up 37%
Auckland, New Zealand, 29 June 2020 - Fisher & Paykel Healthcare Corporation Limited announced today its results for the full year ended 31 March 2020. Operating revenue was $1.26 billion, up 18% over last year, or 14% in constant currency.
Net profit after tax was $287.3 million, up 37% over the previous year, or 30% in constant currency. Excluding the impact from tax changes, being the R&D tax credit and building tax depreciation, net profit after tax grew 23% in constant currency.
The increase in revenue was largely driven by growth in the use of the company’s OptiflowTM nasal high flow therapy, demand for products to treat COVID-19 patients, and strong hospital hardware sales throughout the course of the year.
“The 2020 financial year was already on track to deliver strong growth before the coronavirus impacted sales,” said Managing Director and CEO Lewis Gradon. “Beginning in January, the demand for our respiratory humidifiers accelerated in a way that has been unprecedented.”
“With new processes, new procedures and new ways of working safely, we managed to double and in some instances triple, output for some of our hospital hardware products over just a few months at the end of the year. I’m incredibly proud of our people and their unyielding commitment to doing the right thing for patients,” said Mr Gradon.
For the Hospital product group, which includes products used in respiratory, acute and surgical care, operating revenue increased 25%, or 21% in constant currency, to $801.3 million for the year. Sales from new applications consumables, which includes products used for nasal high flow therapy, increased by 23% in constant currency over the previous financial year.
For the Homecare product group, which includes products used in the treatment of obstructive sleep apnea (OSA) and respiratory support in the home, revenue rose 9%, or 4% in constant currency, to finish at $457 million for the year. During the year, the company introduced its F&P ViteraTM OSA full face mask into the US market and launched the new F&P EvoraTM compact nasal mask in Australasia, Europe and Canada. Both of these new masks have been well received.
Gross margin decreased by 73 basis points to 66.1%, primarily driven by additional air freight costs required to acquire increased supply of raw materials and expedite finished goods to customers for patient use towards the end of the financial year, as well as the additional start-up costs of the company’s second Mexico manufacturing facility.
Capital management and dividend
The company also announced that it has expanded its previous dividend policy into a broader capital management policy. The company’s priority is to appropriately invest in the business to support long term sustainable growth. The company has maintained a target debt-to-debt-plus-equity ratio in the range of +5% to -5%, and the company expects to increase dividends as earnings grow, while taking into consideration the target gearing ratio. A copy of the new capital management policy is available on the company’s website at www.fphcare.com/capital-management.
In accordance with the company’s capital management policy, the directors have approved a final dividend of 15.5 cents per share, an increase of 15% on the final dividend last year. This brings the total dividend for the year to 27.5 cents per share, an increase of 18% on last year. The final dividend, carrying full New Zealand imputation credit, will be paid on 17 July 2020 with a record date of 7 July 2020.
Outlook for FY2021
“We cannot predict the scope, duration or impact of COVID-19 and its effects on our operations and financial results,” said Mr Gradon. “In the midst of this uncertainty, we will continue doing what we are known for – expanding our range of innovative products with patients at the centre.
“For the first three months of FY21 our Hospital product group growth has continued to accelerate, with hardware growth of over 300%, and hospital consumables tracking at over a one-third increase, compared to the first three months of FY20. In our Homecare product group we are seeing evidence of both a lower OSA diagnosis rate, and OSA mask resupply levels in the beginning of FY21 returning closer to expected levels compared to the elevated levels at the end of FY20. Homecare growth for the first three months of FY21 has therefore been closer to the FY20 full year rate.
“Some costs, most significantly freight, also remained elevated during the first three months of FY21. We value a long term relationship with our customers, and we have not increased their prices.
“Due to significant uncertainty in the extent and duration of the impact of COVID-19 on global demand for our products, we have made some assumptions to allow us to provide some guidance for FY21. As a result, our guidance is provided on the basis that global hospitalisations due to COVID-19 peak for the first quarter of this financial year, and hospitalisations for respiratory-related illnesses and OSA diagnostic activity steadily return to normal by the end of our first half. On this basis and at current exchange rates, full year operating revenue for the 2021 financial year would be approximately $1.48 billion and net profit after tax would be approximately $325 million to $340 million.
“Our assumption for guidance is not a prediction of the course of COVID-19 around the world. We are continuing to grow manufacturing capacity of hospital products during our 2021 financial year to ensure a further increase in supply of our respiratory products is available if required.
“Construction is complete on our fourth manufacturing building in New Zealand. As we bring forward capital expenditure spending for new product tooling and manufacturing capacity we expect capital expenditure for the 2021 financial year to be approximately $160 million.
“I want to recognise our suppliers, customers, shareholders, clinical partners, government agencies – and especially, our employees – for your support this year. Thanks to you, our products were used to treat around 16 million patients last year, including patients with COVID-19 all over the world.
“Fisher & Paykel Healthcare is resilient and well-positioned to respond to the global pandemic and adapt to a ‘new normal’. We are confident that our innovative products and therapies will continue to shape the future of care in hospitals and homes,” concluded Mr Gradon.
Overview of key results for the 2020 financial year
• 37% growth in net profit after tax to a record $287.3 million.
• 18% growth in operating revenue to a record $1.26 billion, 14% growth in constant currency.
• 25% growth in Hospital operating revenue, 21% growth in constant currency.
• 23% constant currency revenue growth for new applications consumables; i.e. products used in non-invasive ventilation, Optiflow nasal high flow therapy, and surgical applications, accounting for 64% of Hospital consumables revenue.
• 9% growth in Homecare operating revenue, 4% growth in constant currency.
• 4% growth in constant currency revenue in OSA masks.
• Investment in R&D was 9% of revenue, or $118.5 million.
• 15% increase in final dividend to 15.5 cps (2019: 13.5 cps).
About Fisher & Paykel Healthcare
Fisher & Paykel Healthcare is a leading designer, manufacturer and marketer of products and systems for use in respiratory care, acute care, surgery and the treatment of obstructive sleep apnea. The company’s products are sold in over 120 countries worldwide. For more information about the company, visit our website www.fphcare.com.
Ends
No doubt these are nice results... but for FY21 (assuming they hit the very top of their range), FPH is on a Forward PE of 53x this is surely a bit overdone!
That 37% increase in profit look pretty darn exciting to me, when you consider ('beginning January the demand for our ..... accelerated in a way that has been unprecedented ') Covid-19 pandemic only impacted the final few months of the financial year.
Imagine if they had been fully geared up to meet the increased demand and it reflected 12 month result.
No need to imagine, we'll see that this coming year!
As some of us here predicted, as a result of the Covid pandemic there will be an ongoing massive demand for their devices and consumables in the coming years.