Timing the market on the excess money supply signal
The Federal reserve and other central banks/ governments print money (sic.). And inflation generally keeps up. But it hasn’t since the mid-90’s:
https://www.longtermtrends.net/m2-mo...-vs-inflation/
And if money supply keeps exceeding inflation, you’d expect inflation to eventually appear and knock back the sharemarket, but it took 20+ years, during which the sharemarket’s come through pretty well. So if your strategy was to time the market on the excess money supply signal, you’d have lost out on a lot of gains.
But if absolute money supply is shrinking (not just a reduction in the rate of printing, but an absolute reduction in the amount of money in the economy):
https://tradingeconomics.com/united-...oney-supply-m2
does this mean the Federal reserve shreds money also?