I'm not comparing them, Im speaking from a short to medium term timeframe only.
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no volume....keep reminding myself the statement from CEO last year, every time I see the raise of ATM
New all time high today...where are all the fans cheering ?
When the CEO sells I think it'll be a nonevent. She's flagged it so far in advanced and the company has only gotten stronger since then. She also mentioned she would need to sell 'almost all' her shares vesting and to hold a small amount left that would be built on overtime.
So now the value has increased so much she might only need to sell half her shares, who knows. Regardless I think it's fair to say she's done a fantastic job so far and proved all the doubters wrong so far.
Always good to be cautious when a share reaches a new all time high on no news.
For anyone wanting to buy it may be better to wait for real news from ATM and reassess prospects then. Alternately if/when the SP drops back to the 90 day MA, there is traditionally better buying.
Fortunately, I'm not buying or selling at these levels, merely holding and enjoying the ride.
Me too :) https://www.bing.com/images/search?v...0&vt=0&eim=1,6 Basset used for dramatic effect lol
I know !...she did bring on board one of her old girlfriends from JetStar !
It's awkward, sometimes, being on the sidelines watching an 85% appreciation in a SP in just over 6 months, especially when it's relentless appreciation. More especially when one doesn't understand a growth story or know how to participate in it. Or maybe just missed it, as we have all done from time to time with various stellar companies. Sometimes they just run away from us and we can't explain why we didn't act on it a lot sooner, or at all.
Some people might be better not to torture themselves wondering why and just get on the train (assuming an ability to pick where to get off again), or wait for the next re-entry, which will come eventually, as it always does. It might be above where we are now though, one never knows precisely.
But be careful, some stocks just run away from you and when the inevitable decline happens and the buy-in of the decade emerges in that stock, we tend to dismiss it with trivia that self justifies our reservations to act. TA eliminates a lot of that stuff, for the disciplined investors, it's easy to say, hard to do.
No point in commentating from the sidelines when it just reinforces others views that one doesn't have the wherewithal to have got on the ride, let alone know when to get off.
Most fascinating to see shorters close out 3m shares at loss of over $1.50 per share in just 2 short weeks.
Ouch!
Feel the BURN!
Baa Baa.
Think of shares as buses.You know another will be along in another 15 minutes.You don't have to get on the first one that comes along.
You miss the ATM bus look out for the next one.AIA,EBOFPH,,FRE,GNE,HGH,MEL,MTF,PPH,,RYM,SCL,S UM,XRO, have all gone past your bus stop.
Just try to understand yourself.Are you a chartist,a momemtum investor,or you buy on fundamentals or divies.?
Then just concentrate on your area of expertise.
I like smaller companies that have strong balance sheets,positive cashflow and look to either be able to pay a divie in the foreseeable future,or can pay increasing divies.The company must do what they say they will do.
If a bus/company comes past me and I don't understand it,I leave it to others.
Seems to work just fine.
Buffett only gets 6 out of 10 right,so we would be fooling ourselves trying to get everyone right.
A lot of buses in Wellington these days are heading to NIS and you can’t get on ....a lot of others are cancelled, like a stock in a trading halt
Not that long ago things we’re liable - you knew if you missed the ATM bus the HGH one would turn up on time
BAL is still waiting for SAMR approval and it is just a endless waiting game. Even though the approval is sorted, the rumour has it that they are currently having a supply issue and there are quite many empty shelves around the Aussie supermarkets. I was once there hoping for a good news but decided to move out when SP recently moved up. Another IF company BUB recently rallied up but I remember that was only because of good news like acquisitions and partnerships. Well, yeah I would probably rather buy BUB, but ATM still looks more promising than BAL for sure to me. As always, I am usually 99% wrong though :p
A good jockey always has more than one mount, whilst waiting for this horse to settle down and get a little tired the BAL horse ain't a bad mount to keep one busy whilst patiently waiting for a remount of this stallion. PS-If the BAL horsey does happen to gain SAMR approval whilst I'm mounted I sure will be one ecstatic jockey.
Looks like more short covering at open on ASX.
16.38, the new high ;)
yipy yi ya, remember topping up reluctantly and nervously at 7.19c at the top of market, Oct 2017, had been waiting for it to drop back to 4, 5 and 6 dollars, but couldn't wait any longer. Oct last year did the same but was at bottom of market $9, Just as nervous but it paid off:).
not far to $20
Meanwhile a bit of good news over on planet BAL.
I will mention it again as the share price keeps heading north. Is there a smell of a possible takeover happening as well as shorts covering
Good call with your BAL Couts ...it’s on fire
The sell side starting to dry up. Might have to put a cheeky ASK at $18.00
There is BAL thread buts it boring as so let’s keep it here
Threads are for general chit chat anyway ...aren’t they ...so let’s keep it that may. Being too regimented curtails your imagination
BAL coming back a bit ...hope you got off the horse around 12 bucks
BAL thread here
https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showth...hlight=Bellamy
WOW you're on fire Coutts. I remember we talked about your entry in to BAL just before Easter at about $9.50.
The milk companies (excl SML) are on FIRE! Just as well Fisher funds have HEAPS so I'm happy too.
2.36% in one day, more than you'd make in a whole year with a one-year bank deposit. Still, I reckon this has pushed the limits (check the Bollinger) and expect a retreat/sideways shortly. Be nimble. A share that doesn't pay a dividend doesn't earn respect the from multitude of value/earnings investors on NZX (or in this case ASX as well), especially those who missed the latest run up, so run with the money and quit quickly when the money turns against you. Or just hold and ignore the gyrations as it settles and then moves to new highs.
From Yahoo finance. Is this old news???
Elsewhere, another baby-formula business in a2 Milk Company Ltd (ASX: A2M) has received its required Chinese regulatory approval (notably its supplier Synlait Milk Company Ltd (ASX: SM1) is largely Chinese owned) and is printing new record highs again today.
Found this link from over on the Crypt Currency thread
https://medium.com/@Taelpay/our-ecos...d-901b4c4e3a55.
Looks like ATM is into Tael's (WAB)
"[COLOR=rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.84)]This change in price (tael token) gamifies her shopping experience (A2 Milk)........[/COLOR][COLOR=rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.84)]"[/COLOR]
Crikey! At current prices ATM now a '30 bagger' on my original purchase price at 53c!
Attachment 10497
This doesn't include a few trades over the years to 'free-hold' my holding, and ATM remains at 60% of my portfolio. :t_up:
Absolutely. You buy a share with a 2018 earnings of 27 cents for $16.48. Well, that's not a PE of 80 but above 60. Obviously - the only way to justify this share price is if you assume strong and sustainable growth for many years to come.
Put the historic CAGR of roughly 50 and the forecasted earnings into the Grahams formula, than the share is worth close to $50. But than - it is much easier to grow a company from $62 m revenue (in 2012) to $922m than to grow it in the same timeframe from $922m to $13.7b.
Which means - growth will inevitably slow down. The multi billion dollar question is - how fast and by how much? Depending on the answer to this question is ATM at the moment cheap or dear.
Ah yes - and don't forget - XRO has (based on 2018 earnings as well as on 2019 predictions) still a negative PE ... :sleep::
$16-70 wow !
NZ export earnings at all-time high as China trade booms..
http://nzh.tw/12225438
Hey winner I got back on the BAL horse but still patiently waiting for a remount of this stallion(Probably around mid May I reckon) PS- Since 15/1/2015 only 15 posts on the ASX BAL thread and 4 of those are our recent ones winner now that's a dead horse aye.
And this from Statistics NZ...... what's that saying? "A high tide floats all ships...especially the the good ship ATM."
Dairy products lead rise in exports
Exports of dairy products led the rise in exports, up $264 million (22 percent) to $1.4 billion in March 2019.
This rise was led by milk powder, up $226 million on a year earlier. The rise was quantity-led, but unit values also rose, up 6.5 percent on March 2018. There were contrasting movements in other dairy commodities: the value of cheese exports rose $42 million, while butter exports fell, also by $42 million.
Other main contributors to the rise in total exports were meat and edible offal, food preparations (a commodity group that includes infant formula), forestry products, and fruit.
Of our main export markets, China had the largest increase, up $522 million (52 percent) to $1.5 billion.
“Exports to China were the leading contributor to increases in several primary sector commodities including dairy products, beef, lamb, and forestry products,” Mr Islam said.
Long term thinking is good. Not so sure though the current price point is an optimal entry for the long term.
I suspect the ATM investors who spent in march 2018 $14 or so per share didn't feel that smug during the last 12 months when they could buy the same share for below $10 ... :(;
Nice picture with Danone, but if you read the Danone story (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Danone) - they didn't got big with one particular milk derivate ... and it still took them 100 years to reach $25b revenue. If ATM sticks with the current CAGR (justifying their share price) they should do that in 10 years! Yeah, right ... but hold on - maybe they could produce beer as well ;)?
March IF exports ex Lyttelton up an amazing 250% on prior period. (Remember ATM's additional Marketing spending will be kicking in too.)
YTD up 51.7%. as posted on HC.
Details in this pic;
Attachment 10501
As usual DYOR.
Hmm - there seems to be some correlation - for roughly 40% of the time ...
Whether that's enough to make money out of the correlation (or lack thereof) I don't know. There seem to be quite strong and uncorrelated factors impacting on the rest:
Attachment 10502
Ah yes - but both did quite well on the 5 years chart - didn't they?
BAL more volatile due to a number of issues over the last couple of years and reached $22AU odd at one point and $20AU odd over the last year so more upside at the moment than A2 at it's current price over a short to medium timeframe. Once it gains full approval for all its products the SP of both should move closer together once again.
Just wondering -
did anybody ever manage to reconcile these "Lyttleton IF exports" with Synlait and / or Fonterra and / or Westland Milk's accounts? They all will ship some of their stuff through Lyttleton (in this case its in your tab) and / or through Timaru and /or through Tauranga (in the latter case it would not be). All three ports have "Inland ports" in Rolleston.
As well - how is A2's all important Daigou channel accounted for that way?
As well - how do the numbers capture any IF channeled through other ports (like Port of Tauranga via Rolleston)?
The tab shows big variations of something going through one particular port, but I have no idea what they mean in isolation for A2's business. I suspect nothing.
Spoil sport
But like you I have no idea what the numbers are ..whether it’s value or weight or what. But HUGE numbers though eh BlackPeter
One thing the shipments over last July/Dec were up 40% on pcp and A2 baby stuff sales were up 45% in same period so whatever the shipping numbers are they seem to be some sort of lead indicator of what A2 growth might be,
And H2 growth is even stronger ...WOW WOW WOW WOW :t_up::t_up::):scared:
Why A2 is crushing the competition in China
https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wire...ition-in-china
From TOBIAS YAO - Wilson Asset Management
I have just returned from China, looking at how Australian goods such as infant formula are sold and marketed, given the strong Chinese demand for such products. Being able to speak with shop attendants in their native language let me get to the source of information. In this wire, I share the key takeaways.
BP as always it is a tab risky to read too much into figures.
My key take away is that it is yet another indication that ATM is making huge gains with its IF (with associated high margins) and all is going to plan. However, until the company issues an update it is only an indication.
To answer some of your Q's:
- The figs are tonnes of IF exported. They do not represent $'s, so we wait for ATM's details to confirm margins/profitability etc.
- Remember that ATM has negotiated a better supply deal with SML and these tonnages will benefit.
- The figs may include some SML branded exports, but as SML have not got Chinese accreditation, these are likely to be slim
- The figs do not provide destinations, however whether it be Australia or China the results still are a boost to ATM. ATM has 30% share of the Australian IF market, but much of that goes via the Diagou channel to China.
- The figs give a level of support/justification to recent SP rises.
- The figs also give credibility to the fact that ATM is gaining market share in China.
So the figs represent a lot more than 'nothing', they indicate that ATM is on course to reaching its market guidance (and more.) But if you want to dismiss them, that's fine with me.
As usual DYOR.
Hi Leftfield,
I think some of your interpretations are wrong.
Synlait actually owns the accreditations for the Chinese market, not A2. Synlait could (and might) well sell other (non A2) IF into China, but they definitely produce and sell A1 IF into other countries.
To the best of my knowledge - all IF A2 is shipping from New Zealand is produced by Synlait, however Synlait has as well a number of other (non - A2 ) customers.
As indicated - Synlait has easy access to at least three NZ ports (and they have all "Inland ports" in Rolleston - just a stone throw from the Synlait factory). I assume Synlait is using more than one of them.
There are other big IF producers in the South Island (Fonterra and Westland Milk). They will as well use all of these ports (depending on who offers the best deal).
Which means that there is no point in trying to correlate the IF shipments of one port (which could come from at least 4 different sources) with the assumed business of one particular brand.
That's fine BP, I stand by my key assumption....."So the figs represent a lot more than 'nothing', they indicate that ATM is on course to reaching its market guidance (and more.)"
But if you want to dismiss them, that's fine with me."
Nicely put, for some there's no convincing without hard facts, but here the only facts are a total weight of IF exported from one port. That will never satisfy an engineers mind that needs to know the precise detail. For the rest of us, it's indicative of a positive trend, which is enough to get us through to the May results.
Pretty positive response on the SP regardless of the sideliners and teeth gnashers, just keeps on keeping on. Can't wait for the next exit and then the re-entry afterwards, if one follows A2M, might double the shareholding again or thereabouts, this is a momentum traders dream (pretty good for long termers as well, they're killing it!) ATM not so much.
()
"Synlait actually owns the accreditations for the Chinese market, not A2. " this is the bit that I dont understand. A2 only own the marketing concept and everything else owned by SML. Most people always think a2 can go to fonterra or other supplier ...my question is how? how long others can get SAMR approval? when was the last time SAMR approved overseas IF? surely you are not expecting ATM to achieve 1B$ through DAIGOU. (Good luck with BAL's approval, I would say BUB have more chance than BAL at moment.)
it seems A2 management love to dump shares when SP goes up along with volume. I guess we are safe for now. otherwise again, we are back to stone age.:D
Taken from a very popular shopping mall in Hong Kong today. Shops are preparing for the "5.1 Golden Week", and can see them actively promoting Atwo by Illuma. Illuma ATwo chose Hannah Quinlivan, wife of Asian MEGA popstar Jay Chou, as their brand ambassador. Looks like the battle is intensifying.
Attachment 10508
Heading towards $17.00
The word is :PANIC!:eek2:
Panic short covering, that is. :t_up:
Morningstar downgrade. Must be time to buy:t_up:.
Parents have just tested their herd for A2 which has come back at 50% of cows, they will bring in some A2 bulls to replace the other 50%. Cost was around $4-$5 per cow for the testing. Unfortunately they can't supply anyone with A2 milk as they are outside any catchment areas but are doing this now to give them more options down the track. A lot of untapped supply out there.
ATM presenting at Macquaries investor conf tomorrow.
Posted to HC back in Feb SP heading to $16 - $18 so no surprises from me but nice to see my target price moving into range.
My cost now around a buck. Will sell a few more @ $20 if results are outstanding.
Hit $16 on ASX and few cents away from reaching $17 here.
Bit of an update in this presentation
Sales to end of Q3 were $938m
Things still powering along
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-websit...852/299041.pdf
Business as per usual, seems to be the message? Otherwise, should have been tagged as 'P'.
The presentation includes a number of updates and new information including:
- Trading performance for the 9 months to 31 March 2019 (slide 7)
- Updated outlook statement for FY19 and FY20 (slide 11)
- Regional updates for Australia & New Zealand, China and USA (slides 8 to 10)
- References to a new product to be launched in Q4 FY19 (slide 7)
++WOW after reading this presentation any person considering shorting ATM should think again, imho the future for ATM looks reasonable attractive .