Good one ...have a good ride
Do BAL and ATM share prices sort of move in tandem (except the spike times) or do they get of step at times and give opportunities like you taking now
Printable View
March IF exports ex Lyttelton up an amazing 250% on prior period. (Remember ATM's additional Marketing spending will be kicking in too.)
YTD up 51.7%. as posted on HC.
Details in this pic;
Attachment 10501
As usual DYOR.
Hmm - there seems to be some correlation - for roughly 40% of the time ...
Whether that's enough to make money out of the correlation (or lack thereof) I don't know. There seem to be quite strong and uncorrelated factors impacting on the rest:
Attachment 10502
Ah yes - but both did quite well on the 5 years chart - didn't they?
BAL more volatile due to a number of issues over the last couple of years and reached $22AU odd at one point and $20AU odd over the last year so more upside at the moment than A2 at it's current price over a short to medium timeframe. Once it gains full approval for all its products the SP of both should move closer together once again.
Just wondering -
did anybody ever manage to reconcile these "Lyttleton IF exports" with Synlait and / or Fonterra and / or Westland Milk's accounts? They all will ship some of their stuff through Lyttleton (in this case its in your tab) and / or through Timaru and /or through Tauranga (in the latter case it would not be). All three ports have "Inland ports" in Rolleston.
As well - how is A2's all important Daigou channel accounted for that way?
As well - how do the numbers capture any IF channeled through other ports (like Port of Tauranga via Rolleston)?
The tab shows big variations of something going through one particular port, but I have no idea what they mean in isolation for A2's business. I suspect nothing.
Spoil sport
But like you I have no idea what the numbers are ..whether it’s value or weight or what. But HUGE numbers though eh BlackPeter
One thing the shipments over last July/Dec were up 40% on pcp and A2 baby stuff sales were up 45% in same period so whatever the shipping numbers are they seem to be some sort of lead indicator of what A2 growth might be,
And H2 growth is even stronger ...WOW WOW WOW WOW :t_up::t_up::):scared:
Why A2 is crushing the competition in China
https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wire...ition-in-china
From TOBIAS YAO - Wilson Asset Management
I have just returned from China, looking at how Australian goods such as infant formula are sold and marketed, given the strong Chinese demand for such products. Being able to speak with shop attendants in their native language let me get to the source of information. In this wire, I share the key takeaways.
BP as always it is a tab risky to read too much into figures.
My key take away is that it is yet another indication that ATM is making huge gains with its IF (with associated high margins) and all is going to plan. However, until the company issues an update it is only an indication.
To answer some of your Q's:
- The figs are tonnes of IF exported. They do not represent $'s, so we wait for ATM's details to confirm margins/profitability etc.
- Remember that ATM has negotiated a better supply deal with SML and these tonnages will benefit.
- The figs may include some SML branded exports, but as SML have not got Chinese accreditation, these are likely to be slim
- The figs do not provide destinations, however whether it be Australia or China the results still are a boost to ATM. ATM has 30% share of the Australian IF market, but much of that goes via the Diagou channel to China.
- The figs give a level of support/justification to recent SP rises.
- The figs also give credibility to the fact that ATM is gaining market share in China.
So the figs represent a lot more than 'nothing', they indicate that ATM is on course to reaching its market guidance (and more.) But if you want to dismiss them, that's fine with me.
As usual DYOR.