Originally Posted by
alokdhir
Signs are its a true bottom as per historical examples ...it had done average 17.6% bounce from bottom in one month as per Guru Mark Lister , when market reverses ...but fundamentals say its still too early as real bad data for the economies is ahead ...is it ? Maybe we will not see typical recession type data for overall markets ...maybe it will be bad for few companies and reasonable for some just like recent Tech results ...Bad for Meta , Amazon etc but ok for Apple , Micro etc
Whats new for this time is exceptional employment data thus inflation wont be tamed easily till they kill the economies harder ...to do that one needs very strong Political Will which will be very difficult to find in our current world environment ....so I will pick slow to flat economies for longer with some lingering inflation till it dies on its own accord ...Central Banks will hesitate to go much further then what we presently foresee ie FED wont go over 5% ...even 5% is ???
75 Bips coming soon to take Fed rate to 4% ...next one will be much more difficult to call ...most likely 25 bips !!!
RBNZ 75 bips ...All say a done deal ...but is it ? ...even if done 75 in Nov then 4.25 % ...after that 25 bips most likely .
So what market is rejoicing at the moment is anticipating end of the rate rise cycle ahead ...which may get busted by real data in 6 months time with inflation still lingering pretty high ...or may not and rally continues ....so now onwards its all real data dependent ...till then 3550- 4100 extended range !!!!