I think you should post that link on Off-topic discussions or Investment Strategies... we could all have a lot of fun with it!! :)
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Originally Posted by The Grinch View Post
The reporters say "Stay away from the forums" the forums say "You'll never understand by reading the papers".... I don't know what to think... if these shananigans continue I'll be forced to DYOR
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/n...ectid=11113397 "Don't do this"
Must sign up (but probably have to pay to get his advice) to that guys (author) website
OMG watched one video and it just sounded like moosie .... support here and then support there and weekly setups and support here that held and support somewhere else that didn't and support went somewhere else but heck am I bullish on this etc etc etc
You missed your station in life moosie .... I can imagine you raving on like this guy
http://www.tradewithprecision.com/ma..._nick_mcdonald
Bye the bye i walk past Heartland Tauranga re every 2nd day at different times and i have NEVER seen a customer in there. Im still a happy shareholder btw.
That could be a very good sign - if it means the lenders are out at the customers premises arranging finance and mitigating a risks you do can not always pick up at an in the bank premises/on phone meeting. Also could point to great on line services on the transactional side which lowers costs.
If it is any consolation we have a Rabobank in town - I am the only person I have seen in there over many years apart from one somewhat disoriented and vague employee who emerged from a room deep in the bowels to confront the intruder. Look how successful they have been.:)
Headline in today's The Press;"Heartland eyes bright 2014."
A balanced article after that.
Even local broker Grant Williamson's comments were on the money.
Well done.[makes a nice change The Press and Williamson].
Oh I "get it" very well Paper Tiger. There has been a $24.3m charge taken in FY2013 against the bad property loans to allegedly put these to bed. Yet despite this, the value of loans in the 'monitor category and worse' is now:
$198.370m + $18.034m + $21.518m + $27.761m = $265.683m
Last year the number of loans in the 'monitor' and above category was
$185.315m + $53.360m + $14.096m + $13.471m = $266.242m
In other words those 'monitor+' debts have barely moved, despite all the restructuring. It is true that less of those debts are now in the higher risk 'substandard', 'doubtful' and 'at risk of loss categories'. But if that is really true, can you please explain why the provision for bad debts has jumped from $8.032m last year to $15.961m this year? Of course I don't expect you to be able to answer that question. But if I was a shareholder I would certainly ask that question of management at the AGM. However my vision of the upcoming AGM is largely unchanged. The lap dog shareholders will still be there wagging their little tails in the front row, while in the second row as somewhat larger animal swings their orange and black tail in sympathetic harmony.
SNOOPY
I see the capital raising program at Heartland has started in earnest. The Dividend Reinvestment Plan on the larger than expected dividend, should add to the sweat margin that Heartland has and will certainly be good for the company going forwards. Of course existing shareholders who don't take up the DRP will have their relative shareholding diluted, but that is one way to derisk your portfolio if you are overweight in Heartland shares.
The Heartland dividends past and present may be a good way to placate shareholders many of whom have come onto the register via the PGC train wreck. But have the 1.5c special and 2c interim dividend paid during FY2013 really benefited them? Since over the same period the net asset backing per share has reduced from 88c to 85c I would argue no. All the dividend has done is indirectly given shareholders their own capital back, but I guess calling it a dividend is enough to keep some shareholders happy. Mind you the IRD will be happy because they gained a tax rake off along the way at the expense of the company!
SNOOPY
Let us try.
One of the ways that HNZ divides it's financial assets is into two broad portfolios:
The Judgement Portfolio: where loans are assessed into one of 9 different risk ratings: 1 having the least risk of the loan going bad and 9 the most. Provision for risk impairment for each of 1-8 is based on a % of loan value (based on years of experience), each loan in 9 is individually assessed (Impaired loans from this portfolio are called Collective Impaired Assets);
The Behavioural Portfolio: where each loan is risk assessed individually (Impaired loans from this portfolio are called Individually Impaired Assets).
Reading Note 37(e) of the accounts shows that the Total Provision for Impaired Assets as jumped from $27M4 in 2012 to $50M5 in 2013, net +$23M1, and that this is almost entirely from Property divided between an increase of $9M3 in the Judgement Portfolio (Collective Impaired Assets) and $14M3 (Individually Impaired Assets).
Now remember how in the Judgement Portfolio as the category number gets higher the perceived risk % rises and the greater the impairment provision, so although the gross amount of loans across 6-9 is essentially unchanged the increase in the 2 highest risks categories results in an higher overall impairment provision.
Best Wishes
Paper Tiger
Disc: Will not be at the AGM.
Time to look at the Liquidity Buffer ratio for 2013
HNZ has total borrowings of $2,134,285,000, made up principally of term deposits lodged with Heartland (see Statement of Financial Position).
Note 26 is meant to give a breakdown of these borrowings. Once again there is no breakdown given of current and longer-term borrowings
The information given on the securitized facilities is as follows:
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Bank borrowings and deposits (which include NZDX bonds) rank equally and are unsecured. The group has securitised bank facilities totalling $500m, all in relation to the trusts. Heartland ABCP Trust 1 (ABCP Trust) has a maturing facility of $400m maturing 5th February 2014, and CBS Warehouse A Trust (CBS Trust) has a securitisation facility of $100m maturing on 22nd January 2014 These facilities are drawn by $259m (2012: $264m).
Investors in ABCP Trust rank equally with each other and are secured over securitized assets of that trust. Investors in CBS Trust rank equally with each other and are secured over securitized assets of that trust
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Once again all Securtised asset activity relates to a time-frame no more than one year out in the future, in this case just 6 months. Not much time then until everything is up for renegotiation.
The amount of securitized holdings has decreased a little (by $5m), but in context presents a fairly steady as she goes picture..
The Group's bank facilities are down from $650.0 million to $500.0 million, yet these now seem to be completely undrawn with last years $50m loan paid back. That all adds up to a net borrowing capacity down by $100m year on year.
This money has been on loaned to customers who want loans. These customers owe HNZ 'Finance Receivables' of $2,010,376,000. Again there is no breakdown as to what loans are current and longer term (note 18).
Given:
1/ I understand 'liquidity' to be a balance between the maturity profile of current debenture holders VERSES
2/the loan periods associated with those on lent funds are unknown,
then my analysis comes to a full stop (again).
The only thing I do note is that the amount borrowed as debentures and deposits from customers has gone up (by $194.796m) and the amount lent to customers has gone down (by $0.679m). That means Heartland is a shrinking company, not a growing company as some here believe. Of course shrinking is not such a bad thing if it is the bad loans that are being shrunk! Bank facilities have gone down by $100m over the same annual comparative period. So Heartland having shifted tactics and are using more funds borrowed from customers to make up the alternative bank funding shortfall.
Some of the build up in funds may be due to the reserve bank conditions imposed when Heartland became a bank of course. Anyone know for sure?
SNOOPY