Quote:
Labour appears to be in something of an electoral death spiral. The four-point drop in last night’s 1News Verian poll to just 29 per cent - together with National’s bump up to 37 per cent – suggests that the gulf between the left and right blocs is now opening up, and will be difficult to reverse.
Perception is going to be a big part of Labour’s problem. When a party in government drops into the 20s just weeks out from voting, the psychological effect can be huge. It will affect both voters and politicians. Increasingly, the public will not believe that Labour can win this election. Such a mood will risk becoming a self-fulfilling factor in the campaign.
Just as “success begets success”, for Labour, a poll result like this will threaten to fuel a further deterioration in support below 29 per cent. It shapes the whole mood of the campaign, sapping momentum and motivation for those on the Government side. What’s more, when a party is losing, the despair can cause infighting and panic, which just makes everything much worse.
In this regard, Herald political editor Claire Trevett says today: “Hipkins’ trouble is that once the polling starts to slide, it is very difficult to reverse it. It is also very difficult to hold on to the discipline, unity and enthusiasm that are needed to reverse it.”