He's nearly eighty but I suspect you are correct and he jumped the gun and not understanding details.
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Haha sounds like my dad. (He is not 80) but would jump up and down having expected the full amount to be taken and not realising that all is good.
On another note, I see the SP has taken a dive and is now well below the $9.45 received for shares. Some may be tempted to buy back in, I myself may just wait a bit longer and see where it is headed.
Wonder what happens to the divvy not paid because of the takeover proposal. Paid on the remaining shares?
Post Global Valar gaining 75% of the shares there have been steady volumes of shares changing hands.
Last look they were trading at $9.23 and I did note a few days back at one stage a parcel of 74k went through at $9.30 (not sure if all the volume was at that price?)
This price strength is well ahead of what a couple of punters were picking on here. Perhaps it is unjustified?
I picked up a few shares at $8.40 and could have had more at a better price if I'd been more on to it.
It will be instructive to see how Global Valar behave toward minority shareholders. That and company performance will decide
if I keep or sell the shares in RBD that I have.
Russel said shares would be 10 bucks one day
Russel a good guy
https://www.nzx.com/announcements/333406
EPS going backwards tells the story.
Must be many who are very happy that the partial takeover happened when it did!
If you use the net profit after tax 'excluding non-trading items', then the five year increasing earnings per share trend is very much intact.
Net Profit/No.of Shares
FY2015: $22.523m /97.871m = 23.0cps
FY2016: $24.207m /102.871m = 23.5cps
FY2017: $30.567m /122.843m = 24.9cps
FY2018: $40.361m /123.629m = 32.7cps
FY2019: $42.2m /124.750m = 33.8cps
However based on Monday's closing price of $9.10, the shares are trading on a PE ratio of :
$9.10 / 0.338 = 26.9
A good company, but that PE is 'getting up there'. Confirmation received that the final dividend for the year will never be paid. As a foundation shareholder holder who still retains around 20% of my shares post takeover I am happy with the result. I am disappointed there will be no final dividend, but not surprised. I won't be topping up my shareholding at such lofty multiples when future capital raisings have been talked about though. But am happy to stick with the shares I have left.
SNOOPY
One piece of 'dead wood' (Starbucks) has been lopped off. Cost savings will flow through to NPAT growth. Maybe 'Carls Junior' will be next? Carls might have to stay on the books until the initial franchise agreements start to run out. But it looks like no more management time will be wasted on the roll out of this brand given the now global outlook for Restaurant Brands.
Parent franchise holder 'YUM Brands' are determined to sell off as many of their in house company owned restaurants as possible by the end of 2019. Our Russel is a bit of a 'poster boy' at YUM. I am picking the talked about acquisition of certain west coast of the United States restaurant assets will go ahead. So there is where the 'next step of growth' is going to come from. But as to whether that will be 'eps growth' is another question entirely!
SNOOPY
Reprising the 'Achillies heal' from the Restaurant Brands result from last year: net profit margin.
This is the net profit, excluding non-trading items, divided by the total sales for the year. Note that in a change from the 2015 perspective I am now including 'other revenue' as part of the representative on-going revenue of the company. This is because the largest part of other revenue is money received from YUM to act as master franchise holder for Pizza Hut in New Zealand. And this is a revenue stream that will be on-going
2015: $22.523m / $372.803m = 6.0%
2016: $24.207m / $404.095m = 6.0%
2017: $30.567m / $517.549m = 5.9%
2018: $40.361m / $766.289m = 5.3%
2019: $42.2m / $794.0m = 5.3%
The profit margin hasn't got any worse, which is a positive. But it hasn't got any better either. Our Russel has given an object lesson in how to reduce profit margins.
Conclusion: Fail Test
SNOOPY
PS Not tempted to top up at today's close of $8.65 either!
Thanks for all the free analysis provided here Snoopy. I do appreciate it and it has helped me not purchase new RBD shares with my $9.45 money and will actually be looking to deploy it elsewhere unless I can get RBD for under $7.50 now. (yes I have changed my parameters). I cannot see them going anywhere with a PE of 26. Just too high.
Went to RBD (KFC) store in Dannevirke of all places a few weeks ago and the Mrs who only goes once every 10 years thought she would be clever and order the "Veggie Burger". To her chagrin and my mirth the veggie turned out to be a hash brown. I mean really KFC. That is just terrible. Anyway suffice to say I had a 3 piece quarter pack and was happy with my purchase.
Looks like Russel will need to keep dreaming
Axing the dividend won’t help ...but most who got the 945 might forgive them this time round.
In the dark old days when despair reigned the divie was about the only thing that supported the share price ..but they were good divies.
RBD might do a Telecom / Spark - when they slashed the dividend the share price started slip sliding away never to reach the highs again.
Snoopy me old mate let’s reminisce with this bit from Gaynor in the NZ Herald in 2004
On August 15, 2000, the same day as the bid for the remaining 20 per cent of AAPT was announced, chairman Roderick Deane told the market that the telco was changing its payout ratio to 50 per cent because of its growth outlook.
Immediately before the announcement, Telecom's share price was $7.55. It plunged to $4.81 by the year-end and the dividend was cut to 20c a share where it has remained until the 2.5 cent increase in the March quarter (the 12-month dividend is now 22.5c).
I think it is very clear from the Takeover document that priority will be given by the new owners to 'growth', rather than using cashflow to pay dividends.
And given the amount of wealth they already have, last thing on their mind will be dividends! It is all going to be about growth.
So over time, it is inevitable that those seeking dividends will sell out.
Question - will NZ market ever embrace a 'growth' stock with less than double digit growth rate?
The $10 share price is an aspirational hurdle only now. How many here remember when Nigel Morrison took over as CEO of Sky City and announced that his target was to increase the SKC share price to $10? $10 sure sounds good though.
That $10 share price target for RBD shares was linked to the granting of performance options to Russel and Grant Ellis. But with Global Valar on the scene, they got given the free shares anyway. I expect we shareholders will be asked to support a new senior management share package in due course, which may or may not include that $10 target.
In fairness, I would suggest that there is more technology risk in a Telco than a company that serves up chicken pieces. The AAPT acquisition turned out to be a flop. But whether that could have reasonably been foreseen at the time of the acquisition is another matter.Quote:
In the dark old days when despair reigned the divie was about the only thing that supported the share price ..but they were good divies.
RBD might do a Telecom / Spark - when they slashed the dividend the share price started slip sliding away never to reach the highs again.
Snoopy me old mate let’s reminisce with this bit from Gaynor in the NZ Herald in 2004
On August 15, 2000, the same day as the bid for the remaining 20 per cent of AAPT was announced, chairman Roderick Deane told the market that the telco was changing its payout ratio to 50 per cent because of its growth outlook.
Immediately before the announcement, Telecom's share price was $7.55. It plunged to $4.81 by the year-end and the dividend was cut to 20c a share where it has remained until the 2.5 cent increase in the March quarter (the 12-month dividend is now 22.5c).
I think many of us would have experienced a vast change in the way we consume Megabytes over the last fifteen years. Yet the microbites needed to consume chicken require much the same hardware as they did in 2004.
SNOOPY
Snoops ...Russel often mentioned the 10 bucks as the share price increased ....even if it was a bit of inside joke.
Down 8% since profit announcement
I can see this going down to the mid 700s in next month or so
$7.50/33.8 = 22.1
A PE of 22 is still a good growth premium. But if the Taco Bell rebuilds in Hawaii go as well as the KFC rebuilds did in NZ, and more scale can be obtained from the KFC operation in NSW, then who knows? KFC in NZ now trying a new 'motorway stop' branch. The KFC 'dine in experience', free of pesky motorised customers, is going from Auckland to other NZ cities. Lots of incremental opportunities here. The big question is, what will Global Valar bring to the business?
Russel gave an interview on RNZ this morning that hinted at not needing new capital. I thought that was a bit odd considering security of access to new capital was mentioned as a driving force to accept the partial takeover.
RBD still in the NZX50 index I think, but not for much longer? I wonder when the index funds will be forced to sell out? That might be the top up buying opportunity that some on this thread are looking for?
SNOOPY
Kentucky Fraud Chicken: How a man got free KFC for a year
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/lifestyle...958&ref=clavis