Digger, who provided fictitious information on Pike River?
Who has been consistently right on Pike River when challenging NZOG?
Sure as hell weren't the directors and management of NZOG.
Printable View
:) If anyone would like the chance to talk to Andrew Knight, CEO of NZOG, he is speaking at a public breakfast at AUT next week. http://www.thebreakfastclub.org.nz/p...reakfast-event
I'm with Pietrade in that I suspect those who engage mouth before brain would be surprised at how many NOGers are also Green supporters (not that some posters on this thread appear to know much factual about Green policies). Errrr..... on the other hand, such gentlemen appear very learned and as it happens I have in my possession the deeds to the Brooklyn Bridge and coul dmake them available for a very reasonable price......
(not that some posters on this thread appear to know much factual about Green policies)
here are some exerts from the green party polices on energy.
the link is the green party website.
hydro
Hydro provides the backbone of our current electricity generation system. The Green Party does not favour further large hydro plants because:
Our system is vulnerable to dry winters already and we need to diversify away from hydro, and
Rivers are important habitats for wildlife and highly valued for recreation such as fishing and kayaking. We need to protect wild rivers from further development.
coal
Not support any additional use of coal for energy in New Zealand.
Phase out fossil fuels, starting with coal which is the worst. No new coal mines will be consented .
Allow existing mines to run their course, so that coal mining phases out at the rate of workforce attrition, with the emphasis on thermal coal for power stations going first, and coking coal for steel-making later.
Not support any conversion of lignite or coal to other fuels or fertiliser.
Not support any investment in the technology of carbon capture and storage, though if it is successfully developed, we will encourage its use for process emissions in industries which cannot avoid them, such as cement and steel.
Design a mechanism to discourage export of coal when it is exported to a non Kyoto country during KP1, as export coal is outside the ETS.
Support coal paying full carbon costs
geothermal
Geothermal development for industrial process heat and electricity can be sustainable under some circumstances. It must be developed with care to ensure that natural thermal features are not disrupted,
Wave, tide and currents
New ways of capturing energy from the oceans with small modular turbines are being tested and show promise. However, turbines can be inappropriate in sensitive environments and can compromise local community values.
wind power
Care is needed in choosing sites for wind farms, in order to respect cultural values such as iconic views.
other points of note
Require Electricity companies who burn fossil fuels to purchase Kyoto compliant emission units and transfer these to government.
Not support any additional use of coal for energy in New Zealand.
Introducing a carbon charge on fossil fuels, and using the revenue to reduce income tax on the bottom band, for everyone.
and then this
The Green Party will:
Require energy retailers to buy or generate a proportion of their sales from renewable resources.
Help district and regional councils plan for wind farm sites.
Support a programme to install solar water heating panels on government and private buildings.
Investigate the potential of woody biomass, biofuels, and energy from waves, tides and currents.
so we will have from the greens party..... lots of little water turbines, little windmills, little solar collectors, and lots of power taxes.
so in the meantime..... we are told that we need to expand the ecomony and "create" jobs for the masses of unemployed and uneducated.
this will need energy......
yes..... i did cherry pick the statements above from the green party policy and some of their policies are good.
but the way they want to transform the energy market with what knowledge we have today and their goals of 10's of thousands of green jobs,
there seems to be a gap between reality and fact.
this is the green party politics...... green lifestyle is a bit more real.
the points i cherry picked are the ones hidden in the "good green stuff" they tell the public.
Neopole, the policy items you've copied and pasted appear to make reasonable sense. Why do you consider they were developed and supported by
'mentally distorted' people?
(not that some posters on this thread appear to know much factual about Green policies).
i only cherry picked a few points of policy in the energy field, im not going to cherry pick all the rest of their policies to deminstrate why i believe they are mentally distorted.
but from the ones i have picked why would a NZ political party want to stop manufacturing fertiliser in a strong agricultural country?
Fair points. To their credit though (and not withstanding some flakeyness in their social policies imo) the Greens are the only party to at least attempt to think beyond short term economic benefits and 3yr election cycles. Unfortunately most people (including the green-washed 'I compost' fraternity) still treat the economy as completely divorced from its environmental base and can't see past their need to maintain their material wellbeing (jobs, mortgages etc) to really understand what's going on. Unlike most commodities, electricity is life and death for many people (eg, pneumonia rates in the elderly don't go up when Air NZ raises its fares) so perhaps treating it differently is justified - especially at a moral level. Some fear that prices will go up under the lab-green model. If so, would the rate of increase be any more than the acceleration that neo-lib economic policies have already produced? If prices really do drop that would impact on the economics of gas-fired production and this is clearly a concern for NZO holders, so the views of some posters are understandable. Paradoxically though, the last (and next) recession has and will be the result of neo-lib economics so future drops in gas demand are just as likely to be generated from the opposit end of the political spectrum.
"Greens are the only party to at least attempt to think beyond short term economic benefits and 3yr election cycles"
i would agree more than disagree on that statement. my thinking is... is that they have great intentions for a harmonious life between the enviroment and the real world.
the problem is.... IMHO the knowledge and tech to do it on a national scale is not there yet,.... i applaud them for pushing the points of our enviroment, but where i call them mentally deluded is that they think that if they got into power today that they can pull it off .... with the end result being rather scary.
i am happy our ever for them to be MINOR co party to a strong governing party.
the labs are not strong and the greens are very articulate.... this scares me.
green policy for a nation is a good thing, just not too much too fast.
this has been interesting but its the NZO thread so i will leave it there.
cheers
Boring maybe but paying close to 10% gross with speculative upside.
Always wondered why they got out !!
Now they are back in !!
BB :( ??
they got out because the permit had hit the 10 yr limit and there was no option extend than to do the necessary work.
Kan Tan IV expected to drill Matuku in September
A likely start date has been confirmed for drilling in the Matuku prospect in PEP 51906 off Taranaki where New Zealand Oil & Gas holds a 12.5 per cent interest.
The permit's operator, OMV, has advised that the semi-submersible rig Kan Tan IV is expected to begin drilling in mid-September. The well is expected to take 40 days to drill to a target depth of 4756 metres.
The operator has publicly estimated mean recoverable resource for the prospect at around 65 million barrels.
Participants in PEP 51906 are: OMV New Zealand (Operator) 65 per cent; Octanex 22.5 per cent; and New Zealand Oil & Gas 12.5 per cent. If Matuku-1 is successful, New Zealand Oil & Gas has an option to acquire a further 5 per cent of Octanex's share, which would equalise each company's interest at 17.5 per cent.
END
Octanex map of PEP51906 also includes Kakapo as a prospect - is this the same Kakapo per 100% NZO PEP51311?
M
I was more hoping someone could point me in a direction for figuring out cost of production - (unlike miners, oil companies do not seem to publish this information.)
Balance - while I understand your views on this stock - I have chosen this ticker to monitor and learn from, both the good and the bad, to get a better understanding of investing in oil exploration. The 65 million barrels was supposedly estimated by OMV, the largest listed manufacturing company in Austria (source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/OMV). Are you saying that OMV are likely to have given an inflated estimate, or are NZOG misrepresenting the information they have been given?
I think you are referring to a deep gas prospect out on the edge of the continental shelf at Taranaki, the name of which I can't remember (something beginning with M?). In any case, NZO failed to secure farm in investment, so the prospect never met the risk/reward standard for drilling and was dropped. That doesn't mean that the gas isn't there - it was never drilled. And you seem to be quite capable of exaggerating the size of the prospect yourself - it is big but not 500 trillion m3!
I remember now, it was Mangatoa and it was 3 trillion cubic FEET!
increased volume today - first 10 trades over 500,000 shares - that is probably 10 times higher than average
no news from Indonesia [released to market] seems like good news for a change
info leakage from the drill may account for higher volume
M
NOTHING MUCH UNUSUAL ABOUT THAT;
VOLUME FROM W/E 22/02/13- W/E 17/05/13 ABOUT 20.5 MILLION FROM LOW-HIGHEST
900K-2,900Ks P/W, AVERAGE AROUND 1.5MILLION PER WEEK,
SO THIS WEEK TREKKING TOWARDS THAT AT THE MOMENT.
Price realistically around 80-85 cents with a degree of inbuilt expectations.
All wise held the few that unless they strike a gusher that is where it will languish.
Worth noting PPP has advised the market the rig to drill Block 121 in vietnam targeting 150 MMBL PPP share 15% is expected to start drilling in the first week of June.
Flow testing in indonesia started 30 April, its now 29 days into the 20-35 day test period. Should know something any day I guess.
You can be sure I am watching that one as well. The dread news is that a long weekend is coming up and bad news is always released just as the long weekend begins. Most CEO's seem to think that sharemarket investers can digest that for two days max and by the third day all is forgotten. Naturally I hope I am wrong but I do hate these long weekends when waiting for drilling news.
I do not know what to make of the considerable time taken. It sure shows that something is there but it does not take a month to know that it is a top winner. But it could still be of value and the Indonesian are holding up the results as the govt their might control the news.
Back to waiting.
"A report shall be issued on the day that:
(a) a decision to flow test an interval of the well is made, advising of the
decision and the depth and gross interval to be tested; and
(b) flow test operations commence, advising of such; and
(c) hydrocarbons are flowing to surface.
i find this last line a bit of a worry.... 29 days in and nothing on the surface?
maybe i read the release wrong.
it not much fun waiting.... drill and thrill totally absent.
I suspect we have drilled yet another duster!
I think if the drill had been a success, someone in Indonesia would know about it and be buying NZO at current prices.
Well its not like Beverly hillbillies where it come gushing out of the ground and the few people doing the math on the flow tests would get the chop if they were to leak information?
PPPs SP still steady ATM...
PPP has no interest in the indonesian drill they are just about to spud a wildcat in norther vietnam however
next week surely there will be either some news about Indonesia re test results or moving to next drill
M
Announcement:
Flow testing continues at Kisaran
Flow testing is continuing at the Parit Minyak-2 (PM-2) exploration well, located in the
Kisaran PSC in onshore Sumatra, Indonesia.
Flow testing in the well began on 29 April. Three drill stem tests (DSTs) have been
conducted to date with a fourth underway. Test results have been encouraging to date.
Stimulation of one of the tested intervals is being planned for sometime in the next month
The rig onsite is expected to be relocated to a second drill site at Parit Minyak-3 before the
end of June.
New Zealand Oil & Gas has a waiver from the NZX in relation to certain disclosures about
progress in testing because announcements can only be made with approval from the
Indonesian regulator.
A further announcement is anticipated when testing is complete.
New Zealand Oil & Gas Ltd has a 22.5% stake in the joint venture through the
share ownership of its subsidiary NZOG Asia Pty Ltd in Pacific Oil & Gas (North
Sumatera) Ltd.
The Kisaran Joint Venture partners are Pacific Oil & Gas (Kisaran) Ltd (55 per cent and
operator) and Pacific Oil & Gas (Sumatera) Inc (22.5 per cent).
Quote:
Test results have been encouraging to date
I am not sure I understand why they could not elaborate on this. Are they not getting clearance from the Indonesian regulator or are they not seeking clearance from them?
Been a while since someone around here struck a bit of the sweet stuff--could this be it?
It would seem to me a "responsible Director" could not allow something along the lines of, "Test results have been encouraging to date" without having good reason to make such a statement.
SP suggests others think the same
Must be good as Balance would be the first to say otherwise and he is completely silence of late.
We still have to wait for the final report and then what of the next drill that was sure to follow if Kisaran was successful. I personally want to know about the extra deeper drill this time and if it was a good as hoped. Still as stated above this is the first taste of success since Pateke,so we will want it to stay that way---apart from Balance that is.
""Stimulation of one of the tested intervals is being planned for sometime in the next month""
ok......... what does this mean?
fracking?. if so....... heavy oil stuck in solid material?
spent a few hours reading about Indonesia oil strikes and this permit is not far from the biggest well deposit in Indonesia, but this current one was drilled by chevron and abandoned some time ago.
so its all not good news.
there is however on the ozzie forum a thread about AWE drilling in indo and struck big and are looking at selling 50%....... this could be a worthwhile investment for NZO as it is totally proven.
it also reads to me that the indo government takes 1/2 of everything..... which is not mentioned by NZO ....... please read the awe release as it seems that all proven oil is not the total reward.
nothing new there, NZOG had told us it was an undeveloped discovery. ie someone discovered it and didnt develop it presumably because it was uneconomic. they had always said they needed to try to stimulate and flow test to see if it would be economic.
the appraisal drill is looking very good - even with scant info being able to be released
key milestones
going to expense of casing
taking such a long time to flow test
"encouraging speak by nzo"
1 zone to be stimulated
M
The new website has no details about Kisaran like how big it could be. Anyone know what we are looking at potentially?
(about this drill):
....................
The Parit Minyak Field has a potential resource range of 16 MMBO to 33 MMBO within the Pematang-8 and Pematang-4 sandstones based on the Parit Minyak-1 control well and existing seismic.
................
(about the Kisaran PSC)
..............
Over nineteen prospects and leads have been identified with gross unrisked prospective resources of more than 300 MMBOE. The primary objectives of the identified leads are Sihapas and Pematang sandstones at depths between 1500 and 3500 m.
TUI was initially estimated to be 26.8 MMBO so this could be as big as TUI - only this
time NZO has 22.5% instead of 12.5%.
If we just assume the middle of the estimates it adds maybe 6 MMBO of reserves for NZO.
Current sales value of that would be approx 600m USD or 750m NZD, so minus royalties and
production costs NZ$1 per share of added value could be in the ballpark.
People.
If you are going to try valuing the worth of any oil extraction then you are going to need to try and understand how the regime works in Indonesia.
So read the relevant parts (Section III) of this Guide from PWC.
Then you may be able to come up with more realistic figures.
Best Wishes
Paper Tiger
Lets not speculate on what may be causing the S/P to go below 70cents on a dry well, or God knows where it may go if it is a gusher.
Rather stick to the olde DO-NCYCHBTH!!!!!!
Don't think we can read too much into that transaction Moosie.
A few buyers starting to line up @ 86c I see
.
Price Volume Time Cond 86 2,500 11:50 SP 86 2,000 11:23 SP 86 1,000 11:22 86 20,000 11:21 SP 86 500 11:00 SP 86 4,000 11:00 SP 86 500 10:14
Not a big volume but most "Off market or Special"
Good sign or not ???
And a parcel of 1.2mil shares, just after lunch, simmering interest showing
Is it a case of smart money buying or quitting????
some big share volumes happening lately.
no information for NZO shareholders.
way passed the "30 day" appraisal.
the other joint venture partners are private equity companies.
it seems to me that something has sprung a leak.
but at least NZO is safe in the knowledge that they have dispensation from the NZX to carry on, on nog time while others cash in or out on something we have no idea about.
personally..... i think NZO as the only partner in this drill that is publicly listed should be placed into trading halt.
that would force management to at least explain the delay, and stop millions of shares changing hands with "no" information.
From the number of shares (3,248,878) traded today after 5pm it was the last of Utilicos lot. See their last SSH notice.
http://stocknessmonster.com/ gives you the trade details. Volume 3,248,878. Price was 85.9 c at 5:07pm
oh i see.
thanks for that.
with the number of drills lined up and aggressive 3D then nzo set for some exciting times
none of the drills are true wildcat though, rather more like infill in a known oil bearing basin - this should improve the chances of success, although one would hesitate to say 150% chance of success
M
10 / 12 days left till the rig goes to the next drill, 45 odd days into the current drill, and no news no updates, no info and all indorsed by the nzx.
NZO must love this ability to disclose ziltch!!!
they could of said......... " we are still testing the well",
instead we get the disclosure of serious breach of business law from a 3rd world country IF nzo want to keep its sh'ers informed.
roll on july 1 for a real update or a formal question from the NZX
this sort of "silent" drilling is not ethical, but it seems to suit the board of NZO perfectly.
no wonder the big money doesnt support NZO and it shows in its sp.
totally unlaughable
Totally agree neo...beyond a fricken joke now. Perhaps the knights head at the top of the table needs to roll for shareholders to be given an incy wincy bit of respect in future. With Andrew Knight having business interests elswhere perhaps its time this company had a leader that had eyes for only NZO's 8 ball.
neoploe11, lets just think what could happen if nzo issued any statement outside the restrictions placed on them
take it one step further - say we have confirmed a zillion barrels etc - that should make shareholders happy and sp jumps - until the permit is stripped from nzo and they do not get their [our] usd6m back because violated the rules
nzo were aware of the Indonesian rules when they invested their and it is nzo's responsibility to abide by them
M
a statement such as ::
"the current delays in a full disclosure are due in part to our disclosure clause with the NZX and Ido authorities and extended testing on the well"
this would not be breaking any disclosure rules.
currently :: we know that they are due to start the second well before the end of June.
they also said that a disclosure would be made if oil reaches the surface::
how many days does it take to pull a rig apart and shift it and set up again? 3-4-5 days??
maybe a statement that says the second drill has been delayed......
"A report shall be issued on the day that:
(a) a decision to flow test an interval of the well is made, advising of the
decision and the depth and gross interval to be tested; and
(b) flow test operations commence, advising of such; and
(c) hydrocarbons are flowing to surface.
currently.... we are left in the dark and the stock is trading on zero info.
at least...... there seems to be no news leaks to a select few...... that is the only good news.
im off to have a snikkers bar......
and enjoy my weekend......
The Machine talk so far is the only post worth replying to. The bit about losing the permit if a big find has been a concern to me 5 seconds after we were told that we were drilling outside NZ. NZO would indeed show poor management if it released unauthorised info in definance of the country rules it is dealing with. Top marks to the management for keeping our best interest in mind regardless of some posters that really do not understand the game. If you go back some years I said all this then. We have to play by there rules end of story.
Thank you digger. ..always good to get a bit of discussion going again.
Sadly, if it has not been noticed yet already Arjay we have some time ago entered the AGE of DIS-MIS and no Information, lets learn to live with it.
CHEERS
Share price probably suffering with lack of drilling updates and also general market malaise, but would have thought (hoped) had shown a bit more strength, given the USD against the Kiwi tumbling back from 0.83-0.84 to 0.776 today.
Not sure of what they are holding now, as at the end of the last financial year they were holding $57.1m USD - but that is almost a year ago (incidentally the dollar was 0.801 at this date).
Anyone bother checking up on other Oilers drilling in Indonesia about so called regulations and restrictions pertaining to disclosures of discoveries?
Could be new rules imposed after the infamous Bre-X incident.
Which analyst was that. In about 95% of cases you do not chuckle at what analysts have to say but react somewhere between crying and a full bore laugh---that is if it is worth reacting at all.
I certainly do not know why the info is held but if it is in my interest to hold it then so be it. Strange that I am now the one supporting the coarse we are on when in the very first instance I was the sole load voice asking if we really should be there playing by their rules.
In the back of my mind I suspect the well is a big success and the Indonesian are hoping we will make some sort of mistake so they can justify pushing us out of our 22%. Certainly if it were a duster we would have long ago heard all about it. Guess now we will just have to read between the non existing lines and conclude that when the next drill starts the last one must have been a success to justify the next one.
From a family member I have heard a lot about the strange business decisions made by Indonesia and if it is as 1/100 as bad here in the oil drilling as it is in the aviation world then we should expect nothing else and should have been well aware of this way of doing business before we started.
Balance thanks for that story about the Bre-X incident. I googled it and it made interesting reading. Knew only minor details about it beforehand. It could be having some effect on our oil drilling especially if it is a big success but I can only wildly guess at what it might be.
seems nzo had a 5% jump today with some buying right at the end - news leakage maybe
roll on Monday
M
Actually I would say there is new from Indonesia. The other day Balance brought to our attention the Bre-X incident. Googles it for a great read. But I do not think that is the main driver here. From me the theory goes like this.
Indonesia use to be an oil exporter and now is an importer. During the hay days of exporting the govt took the easy option[do they not all] and introduced hugh gas subsidies for the population. Today those subsidies are crippling the economy and Indonesia has been told by the IMF to act against them. So right now Indonesia is bringing in a quota scheme for gas the first of past exporters to do so I believe.
So my theory of why info is being held up is that the Govt wants this quota scheme up and running before it announces any oil finds that the population could otherwise use against the scheme and call for BAU. If you think about it the last thing Indonesia needs now is any excuse the entrench gas prices well below world levels.
Well that is my take anyways for what it is worth.
Cheers.
That is not a theory, that is possibly an hypothesis but leaning towards speculation.
I guess you did not follow the link in the post I wrote about the Indonesian Oil & Gas Regime.
The price of a litre of petrol went up from 4,500Rp to 6,500Rp less than two weeks ago when they reduced the subsidy.
Best Wishes
Paper Tiger
one would expect Indonesia will be wanting to increase production on one hand, but possibly keep a lid on announcing increased production with the other - or until at least the dust settles from the hike in prices
it would be ironic if nzo spud thee next hole but no more info about the first hole
M
Let us imagine that an announcement comes out that says there is X barrels of recoverable oil down this hole.
How much will be NZO's share?
Best Wishes
Paper Tiger
X-Y-Z
UOTE=Paper Tiger;414731]Let us imagine that an announcement comes out that says there is X barrels of recoverable oil down this hole.
How much will be NZO's share?
Best Wishes
Paper Tiger[/QUOTE]
There will almost certainly be a Production Sharing Contract (PSC) where the oil produced is divided up between JV and the Indonesian state:
The state will take a percentage of the total production (First Tranche Production, say 10%);
Then the JV will be allowed oil worth allowable deductions (cost of production, amortization of investment expenses, etc);
Then the remaining 'profit' oil will be split, with the state taking the majority.
Additionally there will probably be an obligation (Direct Market Obligation) to sell some of the JV's oil to the state, at a price which may be below the world market price.
I am unsure of the [Indonesian] tax situation after that but it is possible that most/all of the liability has then been met.
Best Wishes
can anyone provide a link to the media reports?
http://www.nido.com.au/IRM/Company/S...cePresentation
Page 15 might be a good time to point out Indonesia has the least attractive fiscal terms in Asia
Lets hope this pans out less fishy than all this sounds, even with a best case scenario.