Significant move down of 44 cents (nearly 8%), just in the last 2 weeks on quite large volume. Not a good omen for tomorrow's half year result announcement.
Printable View
Significant move down of 44 cents (nearly 8%), just in the last 2 weeks on quite large volume. Not a good omen for tomorrow's half year result announcement.
Perhaps...except the rumour doesn't finish until the Govt announces their response to the fuel study program sometime in December.
Nothing new in half year announcement
Pretty boring really except this bit — Z obviously don’t think fuel is a ‘consumer staple’ and sheltered from cyclical stuff .....or else they just say this sort of stuff to give the impression they are up to date with latest buzz words etc
“Z’s earnings are correlated to the overall level of economic activity in New Zealand and we see headwinds in the near term around business confidence, growth and the willingness of businesses and consumers to commit to investment or large expenditure. Despite the nature of our business we are not immune to this loss of confidence in economic activity.
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-websit...471/310875.pdf
Operating Cash Flow negative $31m v pcp of positive $111m
And losing market share by looks of it
Media in on the act - 80% drop in earnings not good
https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/117...lf-year-result
Very intense competitive environment isn't going to get any less intense going forward, probably even more intense as unmanned minnow stations with low overheads continue to eat into their market share and intensify retail margins even further. Loss of market share is quite significant.
Headwinds from:-
Possible regulatory response to fuel market study
Increasing competition from low cost operators
The gradual uptake of electric vehicles.
Half year results was less than half the EBITDAF forecast for the year. I remain of the view there is downside risk to their very low FY20 forecast.
Full year dividend forecast of 48-50 cps but they are only paying out 16.5 cps as an interim dividend is an interesting call and not one that would inspire me with confidence if I was a shareholder.
I would not be surprised in the slightest to see this test the $5 mark in the next few months especially if Cindy gets on her soapbox and tries to make political capital out of the fuel study due for final release (from memory), in very early December.
FY20 very low ERBITDAF forecast of $390-430m probably materially lower again in FY21 is how I see it. Dividend level under threat this year and could be materially lowered next year. Stock looks like an obvious value and dividend trap and unless they can stem the tide of rapidly losing market share the future looks quite challenging to me.
market pretty positive it seems with the share price up over 2%, I'm a bit confused why, these results look shocking to say the least