Maybe trying to get to $14.00 NZ today.....
Printable View
Maybe trying to get to $14.00 NZ today.....
Shorters continuing to cover but still 46.5m shares shorted at last update.
So we have seen shorts reduced from a peak in recent times of 50.8m shares in Dec 2018 (when sp was $10.00) to the 46.5m - down 4.3m shares and shorters probably down around $10m.
Ouch!
How satisfying is it to buy off them at under $10 and sell back to them at over $13? :D
atm hasnt looked back from breaking out of its very long time range , implies some where around 14 i guess
I'm not sure why they haven't released a note confirming the details yet but their website states 20th.
https://thea2milkcompany.com/investor-centre/key-dates/
Quite a lot of trading value in nz. Why is that?
27 bagger over here, but there are plenty of others with more bags than that. Still got a block of 50c ones bought in early 2015:t_up:. In the green 454k now, but would of been 4.6 mil. if I hadn't sold the other 300k at 70c :mellow:, but all good and happy with that. Come on now Mr. $14, keep going:D Pump pump pump.
The kermits will stop these bags at some stage.
The down trend breakout was text book, easy trade. I think the flagpole breakup gets (almost) there but stalls at the all time highs. What follows is of more interest. Punters need to know Jayne said she'd sell her vested interests and we saw what happened last time that happened. Timing is crucial.
I agree with what you are saying, but what will be her payout..2 or 3 mill? What is their capitalisation, 9.8bil? What is their bank bal. 300mil? $42mill. turnerover on Aus and NZX today? How much effect would 3mil. have on those figures. I think the shorters were the bigger cause of the down trend back then.
It's all about sentiment, her selling gives the shorters the opportunity to dictate SP momentum and don't forget there are other senior management also holding large numbers of shares,add to that Insto manipulation and you have a Game of Thrones. PS-Im guessing the true long term holders are very much in the minority when it comes to this stock.
China - NZ relations hit new low headline might take the steam out today. https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/a...ectid=12202902
I'm pretty sure the 'blame Jane' game has been overdone. Time to move on.
If the next results report sales increases of (say) 40% and NPAT up (say) by 50 to 60% then the fundamentals will win out over shorters and SP will increase over current levels.
Meanwhile ATM has just released some more research on Irritable Bowl Syndrome (IBS), this time with a huge sample size that found amongst other things.....
"Of the 5,535 adults, 2,876 either had a professional diagnosis of IBS or considered that they had IBS. Those who reported that alleviating IBS symptoms was their primary reason for buying a2 Milk™ (862/5,335) completed a series of questions specific to this condition. It was remarkable to record that 83% of the cohort had experienced an improvement in their IBS symptoms after changing from conventional to a2 Milk™"
As an IBS sufferer myself, I endorse these findings, they are one of the reasons I was an early investor in this company.
a2 held up at customs would be a biggie for the share price , just a risk to be aware off if things go south. anyway looks like china just trying bully tactics like they do with any country who dis pleases them ala sth korea and aus i think have been down this road lately.
Well, our Chinese friends are clearly as effective in bullying their trade partners as our North American friends (and I don't mean Canada or Mexico ...).
Oops - isn't this the other country A2 tries to make inroads into? How about a 25% tariff on milk powder? For sure Trump needs to be worried about America not being first in bullying us ...
Well, I suppose amazon is delivering to the US - aren't they?
https://www.amazon.com/a2-Platinum-Baby-Formula-Toddler
But than, it looks like the product is currently not available anyway ...
I am sure there are many others ... and, to be fair - China certainly feels bullied by Trump and his lackeys as well.
Just imagine - we are blocking the purchase of perfectly good Chinese telecommunication equipment just because the US claims (without evidence) that they might do with their equipment the same to the West than what the US was trying to do with their chips and equipment in China (and other countries)!
But hey, I think this is the wrong thread to expand on this subject and will cease to do so here.
Just wanted to highlight that there are maybe more potential risks for A2 than some of the investors seem to think ...
All milk powders subject to duties on entry to USA. For NZ only a certain quota of cheeses, proteins & i think small vol of butter get tariff relief. ATM will be using local milk for their liquid sales in NE USA. Doubt they have much interest in getting into the complex IF market in US which is largely driven by large State tenders for food programmes.
I actually think it is a very pertinent risk to all NZ exporters as China holds the upper hand when it comes to trade with us.
We are able to compete in China on the back of the huge store of goodwill built up over the years by the Clark government (first FTA in the world with China by an OECD country) and then, John Key's smooth diplomacy of making sure that NZ did not get offside with Western vs China politics.
Now we have an inexperienced blundering government simply following in the shadows of US and Australia in antagonizing China with all kinds of silly decisions.
Definitely a risk to watch and monitor very carefully.
What was the previous all time high for ATM
Shorts starting to close, still plenty still open though. We might see a spike on results day like last year and then a prolonged cool off period. This company is fantastic but is it really worth $10B NZD, that'll be more than Qantas.
Attachment 10307
Disc: Still overweight looking to sell a few more at $15 hopefully sooner than expected.
As this article reports, China has a lot of more serious issues to confront and the 'Tariff Wars' are beginning to highlight some of these weaknesses.
Against this there will be a lot of pressure on the Chinese Govt by its own growing middle class to maintain the quality of life that it people are now used to.
As an insurance against over reliance on China I would like to see ATM strengthening ties in other Asian countries such as South Korea, Japan etc.
Might try to claim the $14 mark today on back of strong US markets.
I Wonder when Synlait will have their day. It is great to see ATM going up, but Synlait is heading nowhere as of yet
Quote:
Within striking distance of $14.00.
What are the shorters going to do?
Ouch!
Ouch!
Somebody will get hurt. Will it be the shorters? I guess it depends on their timing. If they have to fill these shorts now, than it won't be fun ... but if they have still time ... they say what goes up must come down!
ATM has currently quite amazing growth expectations priced in. We will see, whether their fast selling CEO is able to deliver ... but one thing is quite certain - as soon as she gets her hands at the next share parcel, shorters will have a fun time again!
Why would you think so?Quote:
I Wonder when Synlait will have their day. It is great to see ATM going up, but Synlait is heading nowhere as of yet
ATM is priced on hype and expectations of unlimited scalability of a marketing company.
Synlait however delivers "hardware". they need to build a new factory every time they want to increase their output. Much more difficult (well, expensive) to scale.
China....the major customer for ATM and SML.
Hope that the current issues...or non-issues according to PM...are not going to upset the apple cart. (ooops…..should have saved that for SCLs')
A2m on ASX has just flew past station $13 at great knots. A bit fast to get on:t_up:.
looks like all time highs will get taken out on the asx
Bugger, Had a sell order at $13.22 last week which I had amended 6 times up to 13.71 today. Was going to amend it up to 3.85 but sold while posting on this thread. Now I my portfolio is only 97.8% ATM down from 99.5% boo hoo:confused:.
Infant formula will be the very very last trade item to feel the effect if the 'all cheesy teeth and no substance' PM continues to antagonize China & the inevitable happens - warning shots become live shots!
Everbright's stake in Synlait is part and partial of China's 'feed the people' long term strategy.
So far, the shorters have barely covered their shorts so it's obvious they are hoping for relief.
Doubt CEO selling (well signaled and last sale created a bonanza for the buyers) is going to give them that relief.
Meanwhile, the Venezuelans must be hoping and wishing that what you wrote about 'what goes up must come down' happens soon for them - they could do with inflation coming down from the 2.7 million % they are currently experiencing! Poor buggers thought it could not go higher when it reached 800% in 2016!
Our currency spike just caused an 11c drop in NZ
Good passenger transfer at 13.57. Welcome aboard all new holders. We have gained $1.42c in last 10 trading days. Congrats to all holders. We are still in a uptrend, todays low is up 5c and the high for the day was 20c higher, so all looking good for now.:t_up:
Interesting article on how the costs of raising a child in China have risen and the effects this is having on the one child (now two child) policy. The article notes the distrust for locally made IF and preference for imported brands such as ATM.
https://edition.cnn.com/2019/02/12/a...ntl/index.html
So they will and can continue to give their little emperors and little princesses the best - especially imported products.
And the China government WILL NOT interfere with sanctions and measures which impact adversely on the health and well being of said little emperors and little princesses.
So to all those who fret and worry (and indulge in scare tactics for whatever reason) about the China/NZ tensions - continue to do so but I will not be joining you!
Theres an old adage that I think we can fall back on which is "Happy wife Happy life". The decision makers in China will be the wealthy men. And they will have wives. And they will have babies. And the last thing the decision making man will want is a wife berating him for blocking her access to safe healthy A2 Milk for her babies.
What’s the close today seeweed.
I’ve been banned from saying what I reckon it’ll get to .....
.....but 14 bucks plus sounds pretty good to me
Looks like a bit of profit taking is happening or more shorts
Hmm - looks like a double top to me (https://www.google.com/search?q=doub...&oq=double+top). Holders better implement hope strategy - or alternatively take their profits ;);
Agreed, I've sold a few more. I think it'll be a classic buy the rumor sell the news scenario come Wednesday. I hope not but no harm taking some off the table and hedging your bet a bit here. The stock has had such an outstanding run recently they'll need to report sales north of $600M to see the share price rocket higher imo.
Still holding loads long term.
Always good to take a feed with this stock, my latest lot has a $13.37 average price tag but if the report is good with a bullish outlook this could go $14.50 initially after the result. PS-Any other announcements such as a divvy or share buyback would sweeten up the goodie bag substantially.PPS-Its all about hype not hope BP.
Interesting 2-million shares in 4 large off market cross trades @ A$13.00 .............. also Sml
Shorts closing or Rocket Fuel
You could be right. But revenue for 2016=$256.1 mill up 84%pcp. Revenue for 2017= $434.7mill up 70% pcp. Revenue for the coming 2018 year would only have to increase about 40% pcp to get over the $600 mill line. A 50% increase pcp would take it to $652 mill. If that is the case, then buy the rumor and buy the news. I will also keep my long term shares.:)
The directors openly said that they had an increase in turnover of 40% up to their guidance forecast and that it would be similar but slightly under that 40% for the year. People need to stop thinking this company will increase turnover by over 40% and stick with the facts what directors mentioned only a few weeks ago. With the 6 month report coming up, I think what will send the stock upward is if they increase the price for their A2 platinum to China and I do believe there is scope for that
People have some reason to suspect management might be under promising here. The export data from lyttelton has shown massive increases recently so who knows. This company has a good habit of surprising the market however beating 40% on such a large base will be very tough.
Interesting. What do these data say? Do they specify the client? Is this client Synlait or is it ATM? If they just specify milk powder, than most of it is likely to be Fonterra and SML-A1 milk powder.
Whatever it is - it might be worthwhile to remember that the lions share of the high margin SML products don't take lots of space or tonnage (Interferon, which would be anyway no A2M product and A2 infant formula, which is) while the heavy weight export (A1 milkpowder) commands quite frugal margins. Not even sure they ship Interferon and A2 infant formula by sea - but I might be wrong here.
Just saying.
Shorters trying their best to keep price down, small gap just filled.
As far as I know almost all IF out of that port is A2's. You can compare the total exported out of that port to the total sold in MT and they align nicely.
This shows what I mean. Credit to jzhuang from HotCopper for the data.
Attachment 10319
Any know what A2 supply and manufacturing agreement is with Westland Dairy? They been putting out a **** load this season according to someone on the ground.
And here again in NZD terms. 40+% growth certainly looks on the cards.
Big credit to jzhuang who keeps this updated over at HC whenever Stats NZ release the latest export data.
Attachment 10321
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/...ectid=12204157
NZ exports getting the cold shoulder now getting played up (deservedly so) and no doubt will impact on sentiment (especially from Aussies) towards export stocks in NZ exposed to China market - which almost all are!