Hah! The fact he is driving a Rolls tells me a lot!
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PEB's underlying story have changed hugely!
Investing is about ascertaining first a company's investment fundamentals, and then ongoing assessment of how the company is tracking against the fundamentals.
When a company is running way behind its self-declared goals and objectives, fundamentals change - it is obvious it is not running to plan. This means that revenues, margins, costs, profits and cash flow are compromised. More so when the company, like PEB, is in a dynamic sector.
PEB openly stated in its last capital raising that the $20m would take it to profitability. It obviously has not. Means it is encountering issues it did not plan for, expected and/or cannot managed. Risks have increased exponentially.
Delay in getting real traction (and we have seen many delays) means more capital, lost opportunities and margins (remember the bold US$300 to US$500 a test?) will not be achieved. Risks have increased.
Getting more capital from shareholders and investors mean payoff is becoming less and less likely.
The proof of what I am writing? Go to Pike River Coal where I warned that the delays and problems encountered by the company meant underlying story had changed and risks ahd increased exponentially. Until the mine blew up, there were many on that thread who accused me of short term-ism, downramping and every sin conceivable. Tragic but true.
I can't find Hancocks' posts on this thread anymore, are they gone?
Found this whilst bungling around the internet. http://www.urotoday.com/2014-09-18-0...agnostics.html
Was this the post you were after -
Quote:
Originally Posted by Hancocks
My opinion is that the results were in-line with the analysts Forsyth Barr ($3.1M) and Edison Research ($3.4M) – total revenue was $4,132,000 including grants and research rebates, that's OK.
We are rolling out a product that has cost a lot of real money to develop. They are expensive tests for insurers because of the development costs, not because they are getting ‘ripped’ and we have still produced this cheaper than any other company could develop; so we have a great advantage there. A lot of the intellectual contribution has been by Pacific Edge Limited, the University of Otago, development grants (e.g. Callaghan Fund) R&D rebates and of course the stalwart angel investors. But a growth opportunity like this takes money and investors with an appropriate risk profile.
Attachment 7373
It has been a long haul getting this product rolled out, but we definitely are getting there, I wouldn’t get too down in the mouth just yet.
Attachment 7374
The FMA issue was just unfortunate and I think a public warning and Pacific Edge offering compensation is the best negotiated outcome you could hope for; it was a hiding to nothing and not worth a fight really – opinion against opinion, just look at this thread for an example.
The rights issue was a surprise for two reasons, one 50mins after the results and the amount; however, when you read the documentation – it all fits in my opinion.
The rights issue will provide Pacific Edge with the funding to:
• Expand its sales force in the US from 12 to 18 to service 19 major metro regions in the US
• Complete the evaluation of South East Asia, and if favourable, launch operations in Singapore as an entry point
• Complete the commercialisation of its third and fourth Cxbladder diagnostic tests, Cxbladder Monitor and Cxbladder Predict
• Bring new product technology and product improvements through to its markets
• Strengthen the balance sheet, allowing Pacific Edge to take advantage of any commercial opportunities which arise.
Grow the US business $3.7M FY16 & $4.2M FY17 Implementation of the increased sales force and targeted marketing programs.
Bring Cxbladder Monitor & Cxbladder Predict to the market $1.1M FY16 & $1.3M FY17.
Enter the South East Asian market $0.7M FY16 & $3.1M FY17.
So the above totals $5.5M FY16 & $8.6M FY17 for specific outflows = $14.1M
In FY16, Pacific Edge anticipates net cash outflow including specifically earmarked initiatives and existing operations of $15.2M
$14.1M & $15.2M = $29.3M they 'Pacific Edge' are raising $35M - makes sense.