I'm starting to worry I might not have enough
Beagle gets F O M O
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I'm starting to worry I might not have enough
Beagle gets F O M O
Absolutely no offence intended with this Beagle, I understand you’re quite a brilliant investor. I find it very very interesting watching over the past few years how you are impacted by market sentiment. Just one day of upward movement on the TA side and suddenly you’re citing facts that existed well before the movement. Both a 50% upside and optimistic broker estimations are not fundamental strengths in the stock. The facts/issues faced by OCA prior to this movement were actual fundamental considerations. What has changed your mind so much?
Don't question it just follow the herd, it's always the one trailing the pack that gets picked off.
I’ve been accumulating heavily at 1.05. I’ve held since 70 cents. But I believe in this long term.
Yes it is a long term hold but sentiment drives the market and OCA has extreme tidal movements and people love to pick high and low tide. It has seemed like slack water for quite a while but it has done that for years at a time in the past. While it is a buy at the moment how long it stays that way is the question. FOMO on OCA seems quite amusing really.
Post was a bit tongue in cheek, not sure that came out very well. No more coin tossing either. I'll put my serious hat on now. Here's my updated view.
Challenges I've alluded to at quite some length are enduring but if you bring up a 3 month chart its clear that there's now a reasonable chance that over about the last 2 months a base may have been built and it may be reasonable to now say all known headwinds are built into the current price. Don't fight TA is something I have learned from long experience. There's a clear break up through the 30 day moving average and they're reporting next month. It could be a speculative accumulate here for a moderate rerate into the late May reporting date or it might just range trade here for some further period of time. Time will tell but I think the chances of a big fall below $1 are looking a bit slimmer than they were several weeks ago.
First signs are emerging that we might be past the Covid peak so on a risk reward basis on say a 2-3 year view the playing field looks ever so slightly tilted towards the reward side. I note on a 5 year chart, apart from when Covid first hit this has a reasonable looking baseline of about $1. I'm not expecting great things but it would be nice if this could get back to around $1.40 sometime in the next year or two.
We've also ticked over into a new financial year and I'm always trying to sniff around the next corner so I'm thinking not so much about what this year (FY23), might look like but what FY24 could be like with sales of the new Waimarie development in full swing.
Obviously you're right that there is nothing new in the analysts views, they have been at $1.60 for quite some time but maybe in the medium term, say 3-4 years, they will be right ?
Summerset March quarter sales data out in next few days
Tough quarter for sales but if the Summerset numbers look pretty good investor confidence in the sector could return pretty quick
Oceania will ride this wave until they come out with their own numbers …….and unless half two has been a disaster expect to see underlying earnings well over $60m…….and Oceania not disclosing anything for a while would say no disasters have happened.
Oceania haven't come out and said Underlying Earnings won't be about $60m (they gave the impression that was about what they going to do in F22)
Arvida haven't come out and said Underlying Earnins won't now be in excess of $67m (the number they gave when they raised all that capital)
So Oceania earnings up 20% and Arvida earnings up 30% plus - announcements to come soon
Won't be long before the dogs of the sector share prices will take off ...... in next week or so I reckon
And we'll all be happy except those waiting for sub $1 or even 80 cents
Well I got top up at $1.04 and now thinking buy as much as possible on Monday. The doom and gloom is over.
Never can hold enough of these
Chart aligns with OCT 2017 ... W(>=n) might be on the money with that call if you draw the lines with your pastels.
and they make earnings..worth a punt.
Sub 80 can be removed from the chart W(<=n) as it was a global near Force majeure.