Originally Posted by
SailorRob
Appreciate that Mafman.
With regards to my ego... I am the one saying that I have no ability to time the market whatsoever, I have no clue what interest rates are going to do, I have no idea what any individual stock or whole market will do on Monday, next week, next Month, next year or in 3 years.
I am saying that I don't even know if I can beat the market over the long term despite spending 25 hours a week at it on top of a full time job.
I have never boasted about any successes I have had, I have never said anything remotely like 'For me, I'd rather preserve capital by bailing when the signs are too obvious, and re-enter when the price is too cheap. It's not rocket science'.
Or the Horse - 'I think this particular market top was quite obvious if you follow rates, however many aren't' Really? You just need to follow rates and then this particular top was pretty obvious? Not for me, no chance.
Wouldn't an example of ego be someone posting publicly that doing something that has never been achieved by any human before in all of recorded history 'is not rocket science'?
Why don't you or Bull want to see $50,000 going to charity during these challenging times and put my ego to rest at the same time. Super easy to email through your accounts to PWC and get the audit going, it's not rocket science.
Bull has been in touch and the bet is on. That's the left hand side of the Tui billboard.
As for the article he posted... Who was ever talking about investing a lump sum into the market at one time and then walking away? In this case of course you may not get average returns, unless you are investors for a very long time. While you guys can make many claims you cannot challenge the mathematical definition of average. We are talking about investing capital as you accumulate it and then reinvesting dividends which over any period of time will see you get the average return of the market...
Many markets globally are at the same levels now as they were in the year 2000 or late 90's. EVEN if you had invested a lump sum at the top 22 years ago, you would have still done ok with reinvesting dividends as you would be investing into the lows that followed. There are many calculators which can show you exactly what returns you would get depending on various factors.
Don't just read articles, think about things for yourselves and challenge everything.
If you can save and invest 25k a year then this will turn you into a millionaire in 15 to 17 years.
Why don't one of you just tell us without proof of the last 6 consecutive market timing calls and actions you made? What did you do, when did you get out and back in and with what percentage of your capital and how did this lead to returns that were better than having done nothing?
With the market having returned something like 13% over the last decade plus, anyone who has any timing ability at all will be able to add significantly to this, if as they claim they also can pick market beating stocks, then their returns will be minimum 20%. At this rate it doesn't take long to get to $10,000,000.
When I asked Bull why he wasn't worth 8 figures (meaning at least 10 mil) he responded something about why he wasn't as wealthy as Buffett which is some 100 billion USD or 160 NZD. So he mistook my question by a factor of 16,000! He responded and explained why he wasn't worth more than 16,000 times what I asked. His math is worse than his grammar. Why not just answer the question rather than defend why you're not worth sixteen thousand times more than I asked.
Son, why are you not playing first 15 this year. Well dad I'm not in the All Black squad because... Son I didn't ask about the All Blacks. Daddy I don't understand. It's OK Son stop crying my baby boy.
While My bet was made to specific individuals, I note with interest that there are hundreds of people reading this many with 50 years experience and nobody has been in touch with me asking to take me up on it.
Could it be that Warren is right and in his 80 years actively investing, he's never met anyone who can do what so many here on Share trader can do easily, after all it's not rocket science.