Bit of a look at this stock:
https://recastinvestor.substack.com/...-kmdnzx-kmdasx
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Bit of a look at this stock:
https://recastinvestor.substack.com/...-kmdnzx-kmdasx
Mmh - well ...
I think your recasting method is interesting and certainly might give others another tool how to analyse companies. Good source for ideas.
I think as well that you do highlight some valid points, however without painting or putting them into the big picture. This is likely to mislead anybody who is just relying on this analysis.
Example: It is correct that dividend was this year higher than earnings, however their average annual earnings is significantly higher than their dividend, and at this stage there are strong indications that 2022 was an unusually bad year.
Example: Yes, "Kathmandu CEO" resigned and has not yet been replaced. What you forget to mention is that he was only the Brand CEO without meaningful competences and reporting into the Group CEO, who has not changed and is currently doing as well the Brand CEO role. No big deal.
Example: You mention the low performance of OBOZ without even mentioning the reason. Their factory is in Vietnam, and had been shut down last FY for several months due to local Covid restrictions. Difficult to spin money when you are not allowed to run your factory. However - there are good reasons to assume that last year was a one off and indications from Q4 are that demand and production are humming.
Example: You didn't even mention that directors are holding significant share parcels and that they topped up recently in a meaningful way.
Ah yes - and you make it sound like changing the auditor is a bad thing. It is one of the NZSA (NZ Shareholders Association) recommendations that companies change their auditors at least once every (I think) 7 years. This avoids auditors and companies getting too cosy with each other and it avoids assumptions on the side of the auditors. Great that Kathmandu is doing that ... and beating them up for changing their auditors is clearly inappropriate.
In summary - I think your method is adding value, however to produce reports which matter you would need to look as well beyond the last two years in the books, but analyse longer term trends as well as try to understand and convey the context of the company you are analysing.
Anyway - just my 2 cents worth :) ;
Anybody else noticed the recent Share price move, or did you all take KMD out of your portfolios and watchlists after the recent fashionable doom and gloom period?
SP moved above MA100 (the pink line below) and so far holding. Sure - early signs, but certainly worthwhile to watch. I like the green shoots coming out in spring :) ;
Attachment 14284
Discl: holding;
Deserves a big rave - today's announcement
Q1 FY23 underlying operating profit has improved by nearly $30m year-on-year
All back to normal
A broker had a $1.75 target not long ago --- share price heading back that way ..... middle of next year
OI bought a small holding (my minimum holding purchase) at the end of September. It was a gut purchase without much financial analysis. I had a good experience with buying a wrong size waterproof jacket. The online purchase process and return was a breeze, fast and efficient. Out of my 15 holdings, KMD has been my best performer since.
Like this bit in the press -
In a report by Forsyth Barr analysts today about fellow retailer KMD Brands, the investment bank said the company had undergone a “transformation from a single-brand retailer to a global brand owner”. “While macroeconomic headwinds are clearly present, KMD should be in a better position to face these challenges than at any other point in its history,” analysts Margaret Bei and Andy Bowley said
One day the market will eventually recognise this
KMD share price still flirting with $1
Nobody seems to see any good in KMD - they all can't be right
Even WHS seems to be doing better
But if you were SailorRob you'd be rejoicing if share price went below a buck .... and hoping for 50 cents
Even at today's price must be the 'cheapest' stock on the NZX - and a global business at that
I apparently need to be gloomy about KMD prospects and share price more often
Always gets the share price moving up
Didn’t a guru analyst have a $1.75 target on this once
Later in the year maybe
Trading on a P/E of 20. How is it cheap?
Maybe SRob will get his 50 cents
PE of 8 to 9 on forecast 23 earnings …..going to be good year as the world opens up for global brands
Ill stick to the NZXs leading international retailer- MHJ. Trades on a similar PE of 8 to 9 (historical). Great div, buying back shares, has a 20%+ ROE. Its a proven performer with exceptional management.
KMD a bit all over the place. Financials ho-hum and always a CEO of the group or one of the brands leaving
The NZXs 'cheapest' stock might just get cheaper yet :eek2:
Alan Gray still sees value
Much respected value investor …sees a bargain when they come up
KMD on verge of a big run I reckon