Thanks. Herdlicker and many of the AIR exec's should take notes.
Printable View
Strong volumes again. Someone is buying.
Year Dividends Paid 'per share' Significant Event During Year' FY2013 1.5cps(sp) + 2.0cps 17th December 2012: Heartland becomes a bank FY2014 2.5cps + 2.5cps 1st April 2014: Seniors 'Reverse Mortgage' Business Acquired FY2015 3.5cps + 3.0cps 10th September 2014: invests in Harmony P2P startup 28th October 2014: Credit rating upgraded from BBB- to BBB (Fitch Ratings) FY2016 4.5cps + 3.5cps FY2017 5.0cps + 3.5cps FY2018 5.5cps + 3.5cps FY2019 5.5cps + 3.5cps 1st November 2018, Heartland Group Holdings restructure set up Average FY2015 to FY2019 inclusive 8.20cps
I have chosen to use the last five years of operation as indicative, as these years include the full contribution of the Reverse Mortgage Portfolio, a critical component of Heartland going forwards.
SNOOPY
Plugging in a representative yield of 7.5%, one that IMO represents an appropriate risk for the ups and downs of the banking cycle of Heartland in its current form, we can now arrive at our 'Capitalised Dividend Model' valuation
(Representative Dividend per Share) / (Acceptable Gross Yield) = Share Price (an algebraic manipulation of: Dividend per Share / Share Price = Yield )
8.2c / (0.72 x 0.075) = $1.52
A reminder here that NTA was
($654.150m - $73.085m) / 565.430m = $1.03 cps
at the half year FY2019 balance date. This means my fair valuation is at a good premium (+48%) to asset value.
This $1.52 valuation is measured at the average point in the business cycle. My rule of thumb is that over the business cycle the actual share price will fluctuate between 80% and 120% of capitalised dividend fair value. This gives a target range of $1.22 to $1.82. $1.41, where the share is trading today, looks a little below fair value. Take off the upcoming 3.5c dividend and we get down to an equivalent $1.375. That is a 10% discount to fair value. I therefore see HGH as worth accumulating at $1.41.
SNOOPY
discl: New shareholder, in at $1.38
Another positive ... I wanted some coin for another punt and since HGH has been boring me something chronic I took the hit and bailed today. It is bound to bounce back now given my track record - you lucky holders you.
Small but positive.
https://www.nzx.com/announcements/331285
Positive close too.
Chris Lee did a note on Heartlands result. He accidentally Jeff it up on the homepage but obviously for clients as it’s gone https://www.chrislee.co.nz/taking-stock
They love Heartland and only adverse comment was they keeping a close eye on doubtful debt as economy slows ....and like Beagle they seemed a bit concerned about the quality of lending through Harmoney
And what he bought back in at .. lol. Mark the post# so he only has to reply with #0000 and we'll all know what he means and have a laugh, like the one about the old boys whose jokes they all knew so well they numbered them, one would say #6 and they'd all laugh, another would say #52 and they would all laugh, and so on and so forth.
$2.14 high and $1.31 ... for the record. Quite an achievement.
For gods sake dont stroke the animal or its ego its oversize and overweight( no meaty treats)already. And remember traders depend on naive investors for liquidity.;)
Markets closed for the week, beer o'clock so lets all beat up on the Beagle for openly sharing his thoughts with us. On 2nd thought, I prefer just to wish him and all the other punters a good weekend, free of personal attacks on this or any other forum !
Congrats to everyone who topped up in recent times around the $1.30s!
Well done!
Nice uptrend (higher highs and all these things) and starting to approach the MA100 at 1.47 (but still below). Might be time for wee breather early next week ... but time will tell.
Attachment 10361
https://www.harbourasset.co.nz/resea...the-landscape/
Certainly has been nice to see a quick-ish partial recovery in HGH's SP but it may not be done yet.
Deputy governor of the RBNZ doubled down this week on their belief regarding bank capital requirements and this has serious implications for the Australian owned banks and appears to perhaps confer competitive advantages for HGH ? who are already well capitalised and can get to the new capital required threshold simply through their dividend reinvestment plan.
Plain sailing for HGH as per the image in the above link but stormy seas for the Aussie banks ? HGH's future dividends look safe.
Very very close to $1.50 now ...
$1.50 now actually...
FXL v HGH?
I bought my shares years ago, but Direct Broking only records the data since HGH changed its name.
How does one get at the data before that?
All the earlier data is available on the NZX website under HBL
http://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/ also has the historical data under HGH
I've used MYOB for many many years. Using share ticker as inventory number and "buying" brokerage for each transaction.
Love the way that it provides a full suite of accounting routines and no annual fees.
If it's records of your own transactions you're after, you might find that you can get what you want from the Link registry website.
Just for the record: HGH did break throught the EMA100 (at $1.47), but is still below the EMA200 (at $1.57); From a TA perspective - not everybody likes to buy below the MA200 (and thre are as well good reasons) - but obviously, higher risk, higher potential gain.
I bought yesterday another parcel in the high 1.40'ies after chasing the SP already for some days (hoping in vain for a dip ;));
Global dairy prices up strongly overnight
Heartland share price following the recent uptrend (bit of a lag) so looking good for for the next month or two
Share price now 150 ....be 160 sooner than later ....and about 180 before next profit announcement
I hope the Minister of Finance and the Treasury are keeping a close eye on this. I own a little bit of Heartland, ANZ and WBC. Some may do worse out of this than others but all NZers will suffer unnecessarily. Why do we make it so hard on ourselves in this country?
"The Reserve Bank's proposals to double minimum bank equity levels will cost New Zealand's economy $1.5-to-$2 billion a year without making banks much safer, according to former long-serving central bank official Ian Harrison."
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12209846
The full story bob ....a good read if hterested in such things
http://www.tailrisk.co.nz/documents/...alIsEnough.pdf
The Reserve bank proposals are correct. This report in the Herald is just another attack from the banks. The sooner the changes are made the better. HGH were a huge buy at 1.30 to 1.40. Picked up as many as I could and I have alot .
Thanks for the link Winner, appreciate it.
According to the Canberra Times retirees are being blocked from accessing the money trapped in their property as banks pull out of the reverse mortgage market, fuelling a growing income inequality among older Australians. As discussed before this potentially further opens up opportunities for Heartland.
Wow - down a cent (but don't look at the volume ...). Jeff might be tempted to buy another lot. ;)
Suppose good news forvHeartland ....growth and more growth
https://www.interest.co.nz/banking/9...says-peer-peer
And this comment from ocelot is worth considering (good and bad) ....Harmoney no P2P lender just a shopfront for a few financial companies
I know where they could get a loan.
Seriously, if they were actually keen on their business model, they'd use it to generate the capital that they need. I haven't see a loan worth investing in on their site in about 3 months. I think they're not actually operating as a p2p lender. They're giving the "institutional investors" (banks) the first bite. This is scummy because their marketing is all about it being p2p, but the reality is that it's just a way for the banks to be even less responsible with their lending practices than they appear to be.
https://www.nzx.com/announcements/331831
Nice timing. Adding another 1,000,000 shares to ones holding at an opportune time
Plenty of skin in the game that's for sure !
BBB+ Beagle been busy buying more too :) Not 1,000,000 but HGH is now one of my biggest holdings.
[QUOTE=Left field;751168]Pleased to say I'm with you on this one! :t_up:
(Only 2% of my portfolio and looking to add more on any dips)[/QUOTE
Roughly 15% of my portfolio and growing hehe
NZX chart appears to be badly wrong for some bizarre reason ... 30 day SP shown as moving between 2.312 and 2.718!
Not too sure quite what they're smoking ...
Blocky has just ticked the box for DRP, even after the spanking I took last year when I seem to remember the price was a little north of $2. Surely come out on the winning horse this time ??
So have I blockhead, very confident in Heartland's performance at this point.
Did not take them up on their first DRP. Have done so on all subsequent dividends.
" As Albert Einstein once said, “the most powerful force in the universe is compound interest.” The power of compounding is amplified, not reduced, by rising rates."
I think he was right :-)))
I am with you Blocky, and with a few others by the sound of things. My reasoning is a little different though. I want to accumulate more Heartland shares. But I don't want to pay too much for them. If I can pick up some more shares in the DRP for around $1.52 or less - and save some brokerage - I will do so. However, if the likely DRP share price rises above that figure I will cancel my participation in the plan. I don't care what the trend is doing. I am after value, pure and simple.
I reckon hoping for a share price a little north of $2 (almost twice asset backing) is backing an outsider.
SNOOPY
Happy lying in my hotel here in hong kong knowing my divy is paying for my holiday.....should be in china but they classed me as an undesirable alien and wouldnt let me stay even tho honk kong is governed by china...go figure
Glad to see I'm not imagining things ...
https://www.nzx.com/announcements/331945
Interesting. The NZX has managed to transpose the historical HBL financials onto the new HGH data.
With the market now fully informed I would be very surprised if there is not a substantial SP improvement. ie At $1.50 the net yield is 6% (8.333 gross) :)
AU $ 50mil medium term note issue should help fund a good few more Aussie RELs.
My daughter and granddaughter are leaving just now to see whether they can get home.
Their street and the motorway are closed off while the army work on the bomb.
I think we all feel very distressed,and upset for all the families who have lost loved ones.
Words seem to fail me,what ever you write,is just so inadequate.
ps.Daughter has just rung,they are allowed in,but not allowed to go out.
Yes, the Christchurch event has been terrible - and there is now a special thread for it: https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showth...541#post751541
Happier days at HGH - from a TA perspective the SP passed on the 4th of March over the MA100 - and so far stayed above it (MA100 currently at $1.48). All upwards from here.
If you want to share some of your joy with those in need ... maybe consider to give a small (or large) portion of your HGH dividends to the victims families ... you can't bring back the family they lost due to the actions of a sick madman (or two or three), but the last thing they now need is financial hardship due to this terrorist attack.
https://thespinoff.co.nz/news/16-03-...m-communities/
According to InvestSmart reverse mortgage lenders in Oz are now only IMB, Heartland Seniors’ Finance, and P&N Bank.
A key "competitor" is the Pension Loans Scheme (PLS) run through the Department of Human Services but this is currently only available to age pension recipients. This changes from 1 July 2019 when the PLS becomes open to all retirees including self-funded retirees, with the maximum payment worth 150% of the full age pension.
Hopefully not too much to the detriment of HGH.
PLS only offer pension top ups,not lump sums,so not competition.
Yes, except this bond is ostensibly to replace the $100m Heartland Bank Bond for the same purpose that was paid back. So what does this mean?
Either:
1/ Growth in the Australian REM business is only half what was expected a year ago when the Heartland bank Bond was issued? OR
2/ A $50m bond was all they could get away. So half of the future growth in Australia will have to be funded by HGH shareholders in New Zealand instead?
SNOOPY
No I think it is only part [or a start] of their Australian funding program.
Borrowing in Australia for Australian lending.
The $50mil replaces the $20mil HGH repaid when they restructured.
Quite right percy. I don't know why I had $100m stuck in my head. The repaid bond was indeed $A20m. So if they are raising $A50m, growth in Australian REMs must be ahead of previous plans. Team Geoff and Jeff have come through again!
Of course there have been sacrifices along the way. Jeff started with a full head of hair at Heartland. And now he can't go near a billiard saloon for fear of being struck by an errant cue. I guess that makes him harder to distinguish from some of those other more senior directors too. Never been to a Heartland AGM, but I guess Jeff is easy to spot. The director wearing the superman cape?
SNOOPY
Jeff Greenslade used to be a "nervous" presenter.Nowdays he is relaxed,and open. AGMs he does not give much away,however try, if you can, to get to a HGH presentation.
He and Chris Flood "open up" and I always come away having learnt a good deal.
Perhaps you could email either Greenslade or Flood ,and ask to be put on a mailing list for their next ChCh presentation.
Chris Flood's email is chris.flood@heartland.co.nz
Hope so...we need something to "supercharge" the growth. I think this is a smart way to do just that and not be eps dilutive.
I read the announcement regarding Heartland 'considering' a new un-subordinated note for NZ wholesale and retail investors Percy. A 'sister issue' to the Heartland HBL010 4.5% note issued on 21-09-2017. Since they are only 'considering' making such an issue, I thought that Jeff was very organized having all the lead managers of the issue named and appointed. Am I correct in saying that the old HBL010 issue was for a total of $151.853m? Looks like Jeff may be fishing for participants, and if there are more that take the hook than he wants, then the interest rate offered will be less than 'they' want. All good for shareholders though!
In some ways I hope this new bond issue fails to get off the ground. This would then 'prove' the need for the company to have restructured into Heartland Group Holdings, because of the lack of appetite of NZ investors to fund Heartland's expansion. However, I can't personally complain about the creation of HGH, because the subsequent share price plunge is what gave me my competitive entry price into the Heartland shareholder family.
Depending on how things pan out, I may just be 'considering' increasing my Heartland share holding ;-P
SNOOPY
HBL010s mature 21/9/2022.issue was 150 mil.,
Most probably "fishing" is the right way to go about it.
That way they "meet the market" both in size and rate.
I too may "consider" increasing our HGH holdings...lol..
We are well overdue for a strong run. Was flicking through some old financials of mine the other day and noted my holding in HBL as at March 2015 had a market value of $1.31. 4 years and its only put on ~ 20 cps. Hardly a stellar run by any stretch of the imagination although at one point it did hit...oh I'd better not go there again lol
Maybe in another 4 years it will have a 2 as the first number of the share price again...we live in hope:)
Like a broken record we expect you to keep on going there,going there,going there,going there....going there.its what you do best..going there....
You do not hear those of us who brought at between 60 cents and a $1, going there,going there,going there... lol.
Agreed.
I think "the market" is finally realising HGH's potential,and the fact it is not tarred with the same brush as the Australian Banks.
Why it got ahead of itself and went over $2.00 is hard to figure.I think a lot of us thought "UDC" was a done deal,when it was not.
Yes perhaps it was that but the multiple simply got too far ahead of itself in my opinion, just like it went stupidly low at $1.31 on the back of the tarring you mentioned.
I think they have excellent prospects for growth in EPS for the foreseeable future and the present forward multiple is well and truly toward the bottom end of its long term range therefore there's plenty of prospect for share price gains from both eps growth and multiple expansion. Maybe we see $2 again in 2021 ?
$1.72 by Craigs probably about right as a price target for early 2020 though in my opinion and in the meantime there's the very attractive yield to enjoy :)
Even this old hound that gets bored easily can afford to be patient when enjoying an 8.8% gross yield ! (Based on assuming 9.5 cps fully imputed dividends for FY20 9.5 / 0.72 / 150 = 8.8%).
This is a good buy at 1.50 as you say Beagle. I think a lot expect an issue and have held back