It does relate directly to SCF. I think we can agree that a fair chunk of the original $887 has been put aside for SCF. Treasury has had access to SCF so it would be in a good position to say it was improving and thus the provision could be reduced. Clearly Treasury don't feel this way, yet.
Theres probbaly a good case to be made for the smaller finance companies - if they have survived this long theres probably a reasonable chance they can survive on their own two feet between now and October.
So treasury is making a provision for the following companies
• Canterbury Building Society
• Equitable Mortgages Limited
• Fisher & Paykel Finance Limited
• MARAC Finance Limited
• PGG Wrightson Finance
• South Canterbury Finance
• Southern Cross Building Society
• Wairarapa Building Society
The Extended Guarantee has also tightened up what its going to pay out on - so this would lead us to presume that if companies can last beyond October the provisioning should be less. But its not. So this can lead us to conclude that it still anticipates SCF to fall over and that the claims will be greater than originally planned. The claims may be greater than planned because perhaps Sandy Maier has been successful in getting people to roll their funds back into SCf -the more funds teh greater teh provision needs to be. So perhaps that is good news for SCF.
So perhaps now we should work out which of the companies covered by the Guarantee till October will fall over.