exactly how dumb is it to disincentivize saving for retirement
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Where have you been? They have been planning this behind closed doors for months and as soon as it hits the headlines they run for cover. Clueless. The most hyped/ least action govt nz has ever experienced. Planning to remove 20k from the average persons retirement fund? If pensions do end up means tested (I bet they do) then it is a shortsighted own goal at best.
At worst its another tax grab to cover needless and directionless spending.
When National got in, in 2009 they changed the rules to suit their mates who donated to them. My employer’s contribution dropped to 2%, and they taxed it. So instead of getting 4% from my employer I was getting a net 1.34%.
Not that I really like either party. But it has been done before.
Got put back up again to 3 % after that cut.
markets had been pricing in rate cuts next yr , was part of the reason for the recent rally. markets adjusting now to reality ?
Fed’s Mester sees benchmark rate above 4% and no cuts at least through 2023
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/08/31/feds...ough-2023.html
most markets experienced mthly reversals on the charts to finish near lows for the mth.
sept usually poor for positive returns
oct not so good for returns and associated with crashes
so next two mths be interesting
September/October are said to be poor months - even more so in MidTerm election years- which this year is. This video’s graph at 2.54 compares a usual year with a midterm one.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u1QT3Q5Oncg&t=331s
Overall picture is that market sentiment is following similar pattern ...June over bearishness and it over did everything ....including stocks and bonds and oil and commodities etc ....then sentiment changed on the other side and it over did bullishness in August .
Now we will reverse and try to find a more suitable range to move sideways for a while ...thats best outcome ....but as sentiment is bouncing around like a ball ...it will need few dampening waves to find present day right levels ....
Normally markets bottom out by mid October ....so I do expect that again to happen but have my eyes wide open ..
We should not make new lows ....thats important criteria for bottom to be formed ...it should be higher then last time and then we make higher top in next 3-6 months to fully negate bearishness
Lets c how it pans out . Normally USA markets bottom before the end of FED cycle ...4% is just round the corner ...so bottom is also just round the corner
4% for long depends upon data ...for how long ? That depends upon resilience of economy and households finances ...my estimate is 6 months will do after it reaches 4%
Similar story in NZ ...rather our Gov clearly told in bloomer berg interview that we have a couple of hikes left ...then its wait and watch ....Oct and Nov ...50 bps each should do it for RBNZ ...then look for dovishness in 3-6 months ahead ...Picking 25 bps drop before June 2023
interestly the 10yr in the US closed the mth at a new high ( mthly ) same as NZ , aus . just goes to show the 10yr or rates in general are still moving higher