Originally Posted by
Blackrose
Here's the thing. It seems like JK had NZ in this steady as she goes make no massive changes, it's all good sort of thing going on. The problem is that when you do have some one that smiles and waves at everything; something that should have really been nipped in the bud in 2013, such as an introduction to LTV and debt to income bank loan lending for residential home loans at the "that's enough now stage" has by 2017 turned in to liability.
We could look at housing. Two facts still jump out - 51% of the population now rents (according to Shamubeel Eaqub's good report to the town planners last week) and NZ has a massive short fall of social housing and affordable housing that's not going to do well in the up coming credit crunch that looks like it's on the cards. ( I need not explain about how NZ's banks are the offspring of the big 4 banks in Australia and in turn rely on funding from the US)
NZ still has the most expensive housing market in the world and the Nats have played silly buggers with various immigration schemes which I won't go in to because I just can't say how much of that was good solid growth and skills migration vs some nasty stories about exploitation in gas stations, kitchen hand work and low end fast food.
We could also start to look at who is exactly benefited here it seems that the primary agriculture has gotten many a free pass on environmental issues, and cheap labor hire, not much has been done to really stimulate sustainable growth and jobs that don't require someone to be a relative to work there.
The poor of course have gone backwards. Paula Bennett has not really instituted any credible working schemes to help grow the economy and any IR laws to help with that.
The Nats have been in for what 8 years now? Why haven't they fixed this. I'm gonna be a contrarian (surprise surprise) and say its going to be a swing to Labor/Greens and independents with a question over Winston Peters. I could be horribly wrong - but I think what ever mechanism that removed JK, has not finished, and the last two by-elections in Mt Roskill and Mt Albert, have gone to labor candidates on solid margins.