Are you still with us Eval? Or have you sold down? Time to top up again;).
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Ladies and Gentlemen this is your captain speaking. We apoligise for the unexpected turbulence on today's flight and want to assure you its well within the design tolerance of this aircraft. We have removed the seat belt sign and please feel free to move around the cabin at will. The next meal and drinks service will be here shortly and in the meantime please sit back and relax and enjoy the rest of your flight. Feeling less scared now mate ?
Have just topped up a bit at 3.28. In spite of feeling a bit nervous on the scale of today's movement...advance warning of some poor operating June stats perhaps...? But then, that would be inside knowledge and that NEVER happens...:p!
baabaa's long term chart posted the other day was intriguing .... since 2001 or so it never stays at one place for long - generally its either going uo fast or going down fast (no hanging around at the top or the bottom)
If this is one of those going down phases its likley to go down to 200/250 ....but it'll shoot up again so over a year or so no worries
Fundamentals don't matter with AIR - at the top of the cycle a PE of 6 or 7 is reasonable - ie 200/250 again -- spooky
Sorry guys was pretty busy finalising over 50mil company deals here in NY. Not given much attention to ST.
@see_weeds, im still holding, i guess my holding in AIR may be bigger then any ST members here. Im not panicking with this price drops ( even last few sessions have wiped out my over 30k paper profits). I will announce here when i will exit AIR. Not anytime soon.
@winners, sincerely apologise for OPS stats🤑.Have singed off. Will be out tomorrow or next day so.
🛫🛫🛫🛫✈️✈️✈️✈️
Time to go its almost 2.
hey Eval - you might be surprised how big some STers holdings might be. I would hazard a guess a few with more than you. But never mind whose the biggest as long as most are making plenty (relative to their means) alls fine and dandy eh
Glad you having fun in the Big Apple doing those deals - even if it tiring and stressful work it's still fun doing deals.
Caught up with your Morgan Stanley mates yet and touted AIR as a buy. Might be the triggger to get the share price moving up again ha ha
Cheers mate
But are you not buying on a downtrend? Or is it not a downtrend yet? What makes you think it wont keep going down? :confused: . Hmm watching amd waiting! :)
If you buy when it goes down, chances are you will gain when it goes up. AIR is in a lot better position now than a year ago. It could go either way, but when Eval gets back with all his New Yorker friends the sp is bound to go up on this new found airline, they will all want a slice. Good results coming soon plus div. they will all like a piece of the action, and will be tripping over each other to get in:D.
Little song for you Eval https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y61V...1VU9pKqqQ#t=20
Pity KP isn't still around he would " toss you for the $ 50 mio "
All the best in the Big AAPL.
Raz, no, never used a physical stop order, as they become targets for brokers who treat retail like flies to ping off, but am guessing the recent plunge to 3.20 was your stop being executed? I have a self imposed level for a stop, and if the price CLOSES at or below, I will execute at the next mornings auction
Op Stats even more delayed than the midday flight from Ekatahuna.
BW PT
You headed this post 'do a decent DCF'
I don't think anybody bothers do a DCF on airlines - if they do doesn't seem to drive the share price.
Takes an awful lot of future cash flow to get a value of $5.5 billion for AIR - esp if you look at recent cash flows.
Anyway PT - doesn't matter because the market is saying AIRs worth 330 anywhere.
Brokers DCF's told us all the company was worth an consensus average of just $2.19 as late as the end of May 2017 when the SP was close to $3.
Every analyst DCF I have seen only forecasts free cash flow for the next five years and then assumes a terminal growth rate of 2% thereafter. and there's the fundamental flaw with their DCF guesses right there. Recent DCF's are not picking up the tremendous free cash flow in the 2023 and 2024 years when the company is still ostensibly on a capex holiday because its outside of the timeframe of their specific 5 year estimates. No wonder very few N.Z. institutions and retail holders left because most are relying on analysts that cannot think further out than 5 years. They should put their headlights on full beam and they might get better visibility !
I also think many analysts assumed an increase in base oil prices but even the oil companies are anticipating current prices to remain for the foreseeable future including 2018.
Second article down on this link is interesting supporting low oil prices
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...-with-50-crude
Competition has not had the impact expected, migration and tourism touted to stay high I think AIR going forward is pretty well placed to keep generating good profits. I might have sold half my holdings early in the rise locking in some gains but no plans to sell any time soon for the remainder with a buy in of 2.01 to 2.17 not to mention some good dividends since.
Loose stop loss in place that hasn't been triggered yet but my guess is low volume today while people sit back and wait for monthly stats giving the full year picture a bit more detail.
I think the other thing mate is that analysts are not understanding that oil prices and yield are inextricably linked and to some extent new competition emerges with very cheap oil too. You think 10 new competitors would have all opened up new long range routes to N.Z. late last year with $60 oil instead of the $30 oil at that time ?
AIR are well positioned with a very young streamlined and fuel efficient fleet. With $60-70 oil they're probably better positioned from a competitive point of view than they are now. Oil goes back up and so do yields and competition goes down. My core point, mid priced aviation fuel costs are best for AIR.
Intetesting read on how flying may change in the future. http://nzh.tw/11895199
Another day passes and yet no sign of those Op stats, hmmm...
Maybe the steam powered abacus's the bean counters use have overheated due to excessive loading while crunching the numbers for the annual result :)
I rang AIR Investor Relations. They advise June Op Stats will be released either tomorrow or Monday.
No exciting news from AIR this week by looks of it
I blame eval for all this
Probably negotiating an extension of his margin lending account so he can go 150% all in on AIR
I don't think its helping the SP much, muted volumes 3rd day in a row....
I am not expecting any surprises and look forward to full year results to exceed expectations and forward guidance but how much of that is already priced in is the big question.
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/n...ectid=11895927
Poor reporting because it didn't even contain the revised guidance by the company on 1 June but I provided a link nonetheless for those interested.
Extra liquidity is usually a good thing mate.
Just had the pleasure of partaking a 10 hour flight on one of your flagship aircraft...boy do you get well looked after in business...or as far as I could see from the back of the plane....should of asked Jerry brownlee...no cattle class for him..just straight to the front never to be seen again...top class, top service all round and professionals..only complaint was the peas,bit hard to eat with a fork on a bumpy flight..
Looking at the performance of AIA, the introduction of ADRs is a mixed bag. Instead of remaining a steady growth company it has degraded into a range bound up-down cyclical waste. The graphs are showing the distinct Rinse, Wash, Repeat. There are definite signs of the robot trading software driving the trends but I'm also wondering if some Americans are in need of regular instant cash Fix's. If so then its a worrying development... Sort of speaks to the underlying stability of the market as a whole...
Oil up 16% in July 2017 so far and its resulted in something of a healthy, (in my view) correction to all the airline stocks I follow.
I've mentioned at least twice already in early July I expected some consolidation around the $3.20 - $3.30 level. AIR finished the June quarter at $3.26 so towards the back end of July the stock has performed as I expected, early July was a surprise as it roared away as high as $3.60.
Wouldn't read too much into the tea leaves of ADR trading, AIR cruising along around this level with some turbulence like most other airlines are. Solid fundamentals underpin the stock at this level but watch Oil. In the long run a move up into the mid - late $50's or even $60 - $70 won't hurt AIR with its young fuel efficient fleet as oil prices and yield are usually inextricably linked but it could affect short term sentiment. We need some earnings insight before we can establish where to from here but I am very confident in the long term dividend yield which is my primary reason for investing so although I took a little bit of cream off the top of a tasty cappuccino (so too speak) earlier this month I remain with my core holding. It has clearly broken down through the 30 day MA so some caution is warranted.
Good airlines extracting maximum profit out of available space .....but maybe getting too greedy .....and we know what happens then.
https://www.theguardian.com/business...a-safety-issue
AIR not lily white on some of measurements mentioned in the article
I always fill the Webcast Bingo Card up in the first few minutes when AIRcasts are on. AIR are the buzzword champions of NZ.
AIR Asia X 16.5 cm and their shocking seat pitch as well as Jetstar's with the Dreamliner turn it into anything but. I am sure if you looked into it that some of the Chinese owned airlines have been reinventing the wheel in terms of seating density too. AIR have a new configuration coming for their remaining dreamliners with about 275 seats down from just over 300. 787-9 a cunning trick, create a sense of spaciousness with bigger windows, fancy lighting e.t.c. and then cram them in nice and tight, a real bean counters aircraft, love them heaps !:t_up::t_up::t_up:
It will be their second highest ever profit in their 77 year history, (mark my words) and that against an onslaught of new competition this year.
FY17 the year AIR proved the strength and veracity of their business model in a heightened competitive environment which augers extremely well for FY18 and beyond.
Disciplined growth going forward, definitely growing across the cycle and one of the very few international airlines to make money throughout the GFC. One of the most robust business models out there which is a credit to management and directors alike. All good, no worries. Would you like one of my Vitamin D happy pills Winner :D
Someone's been shooting some nice video for those of us mere mortals that cannot afford business premier on the new Dreamliner here's your chance to have a free look.
The size of those windows and their clarity is extremely impressive, wonder if Metroglass makes those :) Check the takeoff how quiet it is up front at the 7:30 mark and the seats and everything, could be Mr and Mrs Raz, such a handsome couple ! https://www.bing.com/videos/search?q...13&FORM=VRDGAR
I've deleted my rants about how greedy and evil airlines (including AIR) are these days.
If anybody has read them I apologise for posting such stuff on this thread - they had no right to be on here. Sorry
See what you've done, let the marketing promo genie out of the bottle again. Good grief. Time to take a holiday from this thread for fear of dying from repetition and check back in when the SP get's it's next walloping, which it will.
;) Take a break, now there's a thought. Hmmm.
You are correct that Air certainly makes a killing on the domestic front.
Hard to see anyone entering the market AIR and Jetstar have it pretty well sown up.
Jetstar have grown to a sustainable size in my opinion.. It's hard to see them expanding much beyond what they are currently doing.
AIR are a very canny and slick operation very hard for someone else to come in..
Ansett ,Kiwi Airlines, Qantas New Zealand, and more recently KRA have all been and gone.... To name a few
I was wondering if you'd got bogged down reading Ecclesiastes which can be a depressing read in places until you get to the last two verses of chapter 12 which give two incredibly valuable insights :)
Jetstar been pulling back on frequency on regional routes over winter citing lack of demand, (posted a link verifying same a while back). I think AIR have them on the back foot or is it simply that Jetstar keep shooting themselves in the foot with their "service" level's and increasing people have simply had enough ?, either way I don't have any concerns on that front.
Stats out for June
Where's eval ...needs to tell us what the stats mean
Hope he hasn't got into trouble with the whores on Seventh Avenue - not that I know if there actually are whores on Seventh Avenue but Simon and Garfunkel said there was.
All sounded ok to me until I got to this bit....
"For the financial year to date, Short Haul passenger revenue per ASK (RASK)*
decreased 4.2% and Long Haul RASK* decreased 12.9%. Removing the impact of
foreign exchange, Group-wide RASK* decreased 6.3%, and Group-wide yields for
the financial year to date decreased 5.0% on the same period last year. "
Those stats imply H2 passenger revenues were down slightly on last year. This was better than the 4% decline in H1.
So FY passenger revenues down about 2%. Profit will be lower (although second best ever in 75 years operation) and cash flow probably less than lasy year as well. Growth company ....hmmm .....but F18 will be heaps better so no worries
Are we up for a special div this year or just re a 10c for the half ? .Sorry if opinions have already been expressed here. We are up to the 300th page and I'm not scrolling too far back.:closed eyes:
Lacklustre trading volume over past few days...bit like their latest op stats!!!
Nothing wrong with operating stat's, sound. Its all about yield per RPK and its a tale of two halves. 2H yield dramatically better than first half when 10 new entrants launched new services into N.Z. First half profit speaks for itself and second half will shortly too and we're already into 1HFY18 lapping the same period in IHFY 17 when yields were artificially low due to 10 new entrants launching opening specials for months on end at unsustainably low prices. Expecting minimum of $575m profit before tax for FY17 and outlook is very sound indeed, no worries.
Have refreshed myself now ;the sale of virgin led to the special div last time. Forecast yield re 6% Gross D/Y on 73.5% payout ratio,.? Yield dropped a lot with s/p increase.Average t/p on 4traders still $2.81 and $2.45 at craigs:). What will the overseas holders do(they own half the NZX and prob a lot more % in AIR atpit)? Holding atp.
Propstar operates old bangers which Queer and Nasty Airlines couldn't sell so sent them across the ditch to extract some cash for their remaining economic life. If Propstar isn't making money when the issue of replacement aircraft comes around Queer and Nasty Airlines may say yeah-nah.
This will further embed Cullen Airlines domestic monopoly to the delight of shareholders but cause pain to provincial travelers wallets.
Boop boop de do
Marilyn
AIR ends the day with a market cap of $3.8b, and expecting npat of $575m (likely to be exceeded!?!?).
FBU ends the day with a market cap of $5.6b, and expecting npat of $525m (likely to be lower?!?!)
Somethings wrong with this picture!!!!
I know which one id feel safer holding
(disc. hold AIR do not hold FBU)
It could be interesting to compare this year's NPAT versus last years (not including Virgin sale), maybe not as big of an income/profit gap as the bottom line alone indicates?
Earnings before taxation last year 806 million (200million in tax).
There's cargo earnings to come into it with further anticipated growth on last year.
RASK may be down from todays stats but how many additional ASK flown has there been with the addition of many routes?
Air had 68% fuel hedging in place for this year as early as they could maximising hedges allowances at some good rates and even with the additional kms flown I wonder if the major expense of fuel is on par with last year but they did hedge USD at 67.5 (575 million worth).
I don't have a great deal in AIR so not focused on it and still have a lot to learn about all things share trading but my thoughts for whatever they are worth is AIR is performing very well and managed a far better year than predicted by many but maybe just within their own broad estimate of 400-600million NPAT and a very solid year indeed :)
Have read a few more threads(alot of spin in there); so correcting my post to refer back to.
Foreign ownership now re 39% up 12 % on re 4 months ago. Re 4 % NZ retail holders( some of us) and 5% NZ Instos (some of us?) and govt still with 52%; must be tempting for Nats to sell down more at these prices.
Expect the market to be disappointed with FBU on an ongoing basis with their deep systemic company issues not all by any means of which have come to the surface yet and pleased with AIR's FY18 earnings. The caliber of the management could not be more diametrically opposed in my view and I'd back superb management over bad any day of the week with my capital. I think the comparison of PE's for these two cyclical's is a valid and interesting one and continue to believe FBU is seriously mispriced to the high side.
little light..however thought a couple of points may be of interest to some...
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/travel/new...ectid=11897087
From a BBC article about pollution as opposed to carbon:
What about aeroplanes? How much air pollution is caused by aircraft?
In the UK about 1% of nitrogen dioxide emissions are caused by aviation. Far more are caused by people driving to airports in their cars.
Good post RAZ and this, extracting more utilization from its existing domestic fleet http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/BU170...+1+August+2017
Yes very int read thanks Raz. Cheaper to have hols overseas now.
"But New Zealanders also have this tourism boom to thank for low international fares as it is the inbound market that is driving the number of seats.
House of Travel founder Chris Paulsen says there's been 750,000 additional seats in the market in just the past 12 months alone.
"That hasn't come in because of outbound demand. It's airlines positioning themselves for the future of travel in the Asia-Pacific of which New Zealand is going to be a key component."
somewhat of a follow up on the earlier article although more AIR focused
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/n...ectid=11897478
Air New Zealand's chief revenue officer Cam Wallace said
"More and more we're making data-driven decisions on pricing. We have so much history and understand when demand is coming in. Sometimes it requires us to be super aggressive on price points and other times we're confident to hold out because we know last-minute demand will come in," he said.
They have really improved in this area over the past year...
Have noticed quiet trading in last couple of days and then plenty of buyers coming in at end of day...last 15 minutes, but also plenty of sellers, but sp quite stable, but only less than 0.001% of shares, so what are the other 99.999% of shares doing? Who is buying? Who is selling? Maybe off shore buyers, Maybe on shore sellers? Or maybe we are all waiting for div day and how much sp drops after div., if it drops. New buyers coming in will probably not be selling very soon. If sp doesn't drop, then is $3.30 new low? Who knows? I'm holding and looking forward to big juicy div.;)
Dow transports index been under price pressure in late July, all of the airlines I follow had their wings clipped a bit after a stellar run before that. Very slight increase overnight on first day of August trading. I'm expecting consolidation round the current flight level until we get more visibility on earnings. Patience my friend.
Most Australians would say Chris and his mates are an unethical lot
http://www.smh.com.au/business/banki...01-gxmzqt.html
I'd say most Kiwi's would e horrified by what they get paid as well.
Their comeuppance will come one day
Wouldn't be an easy job.
I hope Cullen Airlines have banked the cheque and had it cleared.
The mystery surrounding the buyer of their stake in Virgin(under arm bowlers division) is intensifying.
http://www.smh.com.au/business/aviat...07-gxqsp8.html
Boop boop de do
Marilyn
Just checked online to find why this is down heavily today. Came across this article. http://dasherbusinessreview.com/air-...vels-in-focus/
I'm sure the following makes perfect sense to most guys, but me being a noob I was chuckling reading it. Here's a snipit I found lolworthy -
When there are crossovers between the FAMA and MAMA, the shares are often widely traded. When the MAMA crosses above the FAMA, it means that the shares are likely to move higher. Conversely the opposite occurs when the MAMA crosses below the FAMA.
Just the usual down day, and up end of day. Results in two weeks and div in 4:).
With the price down from the 3.60 level some weeks back, is part of this because there's not likely to be a special dividend paid?
Craigs have downgraded it to a sell today