Craigs dont cover PPH YET but it sounds like one of their analysts was at the meeting last week so I suspect they are about to :confused:
Printable View
Was that a secret conference call last week or something
Part of the investor briefing they normally do. You can listen to it following the details they listed here https://www.nzx.com/announcements/310426
https://www.nbr.co.nz/article/pushpa...high-ck-210153
NBR story, not pay-walled. No new info.
I have seen some very good posts and analysis on this on another forum and its probably better than anything any potential analyst will post if they start covering this.
Way back around February 2017 this poster on that forum, (which I had probably better not name so as not to upset the owners and administrators and STMOD of this forum) called this as late $3s by late 2017, subsequently updated to as much as $4.14. He's been bang on the money with this one. Very bright guy.
The hound is happy to follow his lead on this one. First rule of successful investing is to follow other successful people and any good hound on the hunt knows you don't always have to be the lead dog to enjoy the hunt :-)
Hectorplains,
PPH can't please everyone over this issue...
If they do only US churches, they're accused of being a "one trick pony' with a narrow focus.
If they look to other opportunities, they're accused of taking focus and resources away from what's working well.
Disclosure: Full faith that PPH will keep delivering!
Jeepers. If this carries on it'll be $4 by Xmas.
Sold out of ATM on one if its volatility swings (maybe too early by the looks of things) and bought more PPH -
Still up just over 25% for the short term so far, can't complain.
Booked in profit...as all time high. Will get back in if down a bit...or not:eek2:or it will keep going up....
Having doing many valuation exercises and tracking of US tech companies, if PPH can achieve its $100 ACMR this year, we'd see a $3 billion valuation on the US market since the US market tends to expect low capital returns for their money and extends payback. While when I do a kiwi tech value I get 900 million due to kiwis conservative nature and much need for much higher returns, so big difference in numbers and reason why I think PPH want to list in the US. we are talking the difference between $3.5 and $11.50 just on crowd apetite.
Chris Heaslip bans laptops at his meetings
Like that idea
Big business this church giving ...even have big Summits on how to do it better and better
Push seem to play a big part
https://echurch.com/summit/
Silver ...yes SaaS valuations interesting
But isn’t a 30 times ACMR (run rate) for Push a bit excessive / optimistic
When assessing a suitable multiple does one need to consider that only a third of revenues applies to the software (the SaaS but), the rest being their cut of what’s processed.
Common practice is to include services and other add ons because they generally are seen as recurring. So fair enough to count these processing revenues in ACMR but there is a strong case to say that the 50% processing fees should be taken off (shown in the accounts as a cost of sales) - thus using a net ACMR figure as a base for assessing valuations based on multiples.
A $100m reported ACMR would only be about $70m if we did that. So currently share price reflects a multiple of about 10.
I think PPH is extremely difficult to value at this stage as sentiment when/if listed on the NASDAQ will have a major influence. Meanwhile here is food for thought.
(1USD approx DKK 6.25) Nets seems to have very limited revenue growth over the last 4 years, EBIDTA about USD 420M in 2016 (NPAT USD 160M) and is valued at USD 5.3 BILLION by private equity guys !!!!!:
https://www.reuters.com/article/lega...-idUSKCN1C02H1
https://investor.nets.eu/financial-information
The hound reckons this stock is many investors best chance for 2018 to bark up a storm on their portfolio. With a Nasdaq listing highly likely in late 2018 / early 2019 to crystalize serious value...and then lets not forget about the company's organic growth in the meantime.
Interesting ...but I get confused when Europeans use commas where we us points.....so hard to understand the financials you linked
Reuters article says - The price on offer from the U.S. buyout firm implies a valuation for Nets of 13 times 2018 enterprise-value-to-EBITDA, in line with the sector average, UBS wrote in a research note.
And yahoo finance stats say current price reflects a price/sales ratio of 4.3
Such multiples wouldn’t make Push even a billion dollar company
So maybe this Nets is very much bigger than Push
So a case of fundamentals don’t really matter eh
It’s like taking a lotto ticket but you will win a prize no matter what ......might be a little prize but could be the jackpot ...but you won’t lose no matter what
I love punting and betting on Push is just that ....pity it takes so long to get the payout ....at least with WINX it’s only a few minutes
Buying heaps more then Beagle? Better bet than SUM others
I wasn't suggestinng excluding processing income in full (yes it is recurring) but saying maybe the processing costs (the cut and costs Visa / Mastercard etc take) be taken into account to give a net processing income. After all that is all Push get.
The cut that Visa / Mastercard take is just under 60% so in big picture quite significant
Push's getting smashed really hard. Whether it's profit taking or something else idk. To my mind there are quite a few things to look forward to in 2018 including US listing. Happy holder.
Looks very much that way sb9, the difficulty I have is when to start buying parcels again.
A "little birdie" told me the other day he expects this company has an excellent chance of inclusion in the NZX 50 index at the forthcoming rebalancing / index adjustment in early December. I think some of the recent sellers cashing in their chips for Xmas spending might rue their decision but as usual, time will tell.
I've freed up a bit more cash - might see how this plays out.
If I had to pick why the highly conspicious drop, I would suggest that staff are buying in. Good thing if true and will find out in due course.
Posting from a link on another forum. PPH joins NZX50..
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-websit...663/271446.pdf
Index tracking funds like Milfords and others will have to sell XRO and buy PPH in big volume, how sad never mind :D :D
A nice way to start the day up 3.2% (so far!)
I am eagerly awaiting confirmation of $100m ACMR this month. It should add a little fuel to the fire and be a good finish to the year.
Happy I topped up 5k at 3.59 yesterday. PPH now my second biggest holding at 15% of my portfolio with a 45% gain to date. Exciting times ahead IMHO.
I went big into ATM early on. Had a great return but could be argued I sold far too early. Got into PPH early on and will not be making the same mistake again, I hope :-) I feel we are on an exciting ride with this one and hope we get a NASDAQ listing before being taken out at a low price like DIL did
I can relate to that. ATM was a tricky investment in the early days - there were a lot of knockers. Its only more recently that I've become a lot more confident in the management team and their ability to deliver. The same applies with PPH, they have established a great record of delivering what they say. Who knows where this one will go, but its looking exciting for 2018.
with huge fire disaster in LA..that would increase the revenue of giving?? any thoughts?
Quarterly update for Dec'17 quarter scheduled for 10th Jan 2018, its gonna be mighty start for New Year....surely $4 by that time.
I think it is a mistake to think of PPH in terms of church's only. At its core PPH is about 'facilitating payments for communities and organisations'. While in its early stages PPH has made huge progress with churches, the longer term could easily see the PPH 'system' extended to schools, universities, charities and much much more.
A "little birdie" tells me there's a few million shares shortfall in shares required by index tracker funds leading into the index rebalancing tomorrow. Could be an "interesting" match process in the last 15 minutes of trading tomorrow and follow through on Monday next week :t_up:
A lot of trades went through $3.90. Possible fundies recommendation to thier clients?
There you go guys, Merry Christmas :)
wow $4.15 and sellers have dried up,time to pop a cork!
Will never see no $3 in front anyone for now on! Congratulations holders! God blesses all of us!
Wow. I have a very small share of PPH but am up 50%. Thanks for your advice on this one all. What a run this year.
Mr Dog, Please thank the birdie on my behalf. Fabulous confirmation.
I have been sceptical about us reaching the NZX50 for the very reason that the shares are tightly held. I did not foresee what happened today which was a clever move by substantial holders. As you know Mr Beagle, I’ve taken a big bet on this one and am mighty happy with that decision
I disagree..."easily" done it won't be. They've made sod all progress in those areas in the last 2 years. Those markets are competitive and much more developed than the 'faithspace.' It will more likely be a long, expensive slog. PPH have said there is plenty more to be made from the churches - they still only have 6% of the US large church segment. Given the potential why wouldn't you just focus on that market?
I think they should continue focusing on the faith space only for now. They have a first mover advantage there and are obviously doing well in it. Stick to the knitting. We will be taken over before we need to think about anything else. !
Last Friday on 8 December it closed at $3.46. Confirmation that it would be included in the NZX50 on Friday afternoon saw it open at $3.50 on Monday morning on the 11th and steadily track higher for most of the week as the news spread. Friday's close of $4.15 represents a 19.94% premium on last week's close on no new news other than NZX50 inclusion and index tracker funds being forced to buy in.
I like the stock and was aware they were likely to be included before last Friday so took a decent sized position which I added to this last week on confirmation of inclusion. Even so I was very pleasantly surprised by Friday's close and would have been very happy with $4.00.
The question in my mind...is it suddenly worth 20% more just because of index inclusion ?
Answer...No but there are some mitigating factors. (I know this seems like a contradiction but this is how the little birdie explained it to me).
Once in the NZX50 analysts are more likely to start covering it. Institutions other than tracker funds are more likely to take an interest in it and brokers who are managing funds with full discretion on behalf of clients are possibly more likely to take a position in it. Further, brokers are more likely to recommend it to their clients as part of their normal advisory role.
The stock isn't suddenly intrinsically worth 20% more but it could be that with wider market acceptance institutions and other investors are prepared to pay more.
Finally in conclusion to answer the question I posed myself...Does the answer really matter with a Nasdaq listing sometime in the near future anyway ?
It only really matters in the short term.
Beagle, Thanks for all your input over the last year or so on different companies. I wish I had bought PushPay a while back, hearing your comments, but might buy some another time. I do think you should start a weekly column in the NZ Herald, and also start up a company called Beagle Asset Management :t_up:.
That's very kind of you to suggest mate. I'd like to think I help make the odd bit of difference here and there, (probably wishful thinking on my part) but would be the first to confess this is often in my own financial interests with holdings. I fear some on here see the Beagle's musings as barking and whining not opining but hopefully one or two others appreciate the hounds propensity to chew the fat on various bones of contention from time to time. Must admit... Beagle Asset management does have a bit of a ring to it..."taking a dogged approach to building wealth"... maybe one day :)
agreed. FNZC, for example, does not cover it yet and I think it would make a big difference if they did, just as you suggest. I understand that now it is in the NZX50, they may indeed start some analysis in 2018.
separately, I subscribe to the broadly-accepted idea that passive funds are a better way to invest due to lower fees and the inability of active managers (except for you and I, of course!) to sustain out-performance, especially for markets that I cannot keep a close eye on. but the kind of price action around PPH in the last week, makes a mockery of passive performance, doesn't it? we saw them coming and bought up ahead of their forced buying, thus reducing their return (though of course they will look fine against their benchmarks) and increasing active managers' returns.
but even if I'm right on this, let's not make too much of it, or we may kill the golden goose.. is it just NZ with a relatively thin market where this is exacerbated? or are there similar opportunities globally?
Good question and probably worthy of some investigation. It seems to me that this is not an isolated incident by any means and is indeed a free lunch for astute investors obtaining a first mover advantage over passive funds. I saw the same thing when CVT was included into the NZX50 and that went from ~ $10 to ~ $12 approx. a 20% gain as well. Sigh..if only investing was always this easy :)
I guess the passive funds do okay for the fact that the inclusion draws the extra interest we've discussed. I'd like to think in more liquid markets the effects weren't quite as pronounced but perhaps that's wishful thinking ? Agree 100% about not jawboning on this issue for too long...better to let some things stay under the radar as much as possible. Price action today will be interesting. Will we see some retracement on the gain so that canny investors who sold some on Friday can replenish their holding at a cheaper price ?
Interesting depth for PPH now pre open with highest bid at $ 3.88 and lowest sell at $ 4.85 with only a few shares. No doubt this gap will close up when market opens
Market cap now about US$800m
Better say that’s still awfully cheap or else will be shot down in flames
Chart looks pretty good though
Come next announcement early Jan and we be looking at $5 I reckon ...the market is @ funny thing.
Hey Mr Beagle ...as a matter of interest is your personal trainer and your ‘little birdie’ the one and the same?
They tend to under guess the value of Push ...wonder their latest gues / valuation is?
In todays announcement
On 15 December 2017, the Crowther Family trust sold 1,800,675 Shares through on-markettransactions for an aggregate price of $7,268,964.84 (being an average price of $4.0368 perShare).
On 17 December 2017, the Crowther Family Trust gifted 235,000 Shares for no considerationto the MSix20 Foundation, a not for profit corporation formed on the laws of Washington, USA.Eliot Barry Crowther is the president of the MSix20 Foundation and has the power to control thedisposition of, and the voting rights attaching to, the Shares held by the MSix20 Foundation.
LOL that personal trainer with his $3.50 by Christmas was pretty conservative eh. Looked silly when it was $2 though. Yes personal trainer and little birdie one and the same mate, personal trainer was his earlier nickname. I'll let you know when little birdie gives me an update on estimated listing date on the NASDAQ and / or valuation update.
The little birdie on the AIR thread is a different birdie though my snout is telling me he's just as reliable.
There is a recently reliable pattern in PPH, which initiated again last Friday with the perky high. A period of 6-8 weeks follows with sideways or more commonly sideways/down price action. Or the pattern is broken this time and my analysis is bogus. Eyes on this as well.
Being up 20% because of index inclusion, logic suggests to me that a period of consolidation is the most likely short term course of action, all the more so as the stock as Baa Baa and others will have observed has a history of consolidating / slightly declining after each new push up. I am not convinced 100% that the awaited news on 10 January will be the start of the next leg up, its too soon based on historic lengths of time of previous consolidations, (unless of course they considerably exceed expectations). 20% has been a big move in one week.
Okay I hear ya...naughty dog couldn't resist taking some Christmas bonus on Friday at $4.15. (The problem with being self employed is nobody is going to pay you a Christmas bonus you need to organize your own) Still holding a reasonable sized number but probably should cover at least half those sold before 10 January. Sitting on too much cash now...better not tell any Mercedes dealers that lol