Share price action suggests someone wants the sp down.
I wonder why.
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Share price action suggests someone wants the sp down.
I wonder why.
Oh Balance, I have seen it so many times where timings of events just seem rather coincidental. Not saying this is the case here .... but get cynical all the same
BTW .... I know nothing technical in this game ...but Mr W's seems to have had a relevantly experienced career
.....MR WILLIAMS APPEARS TO HAVE THE GOODS ALSO. DARLING & CO. DOING VERY WELL IN ASSEMBLING A HIGH QUALITY DIRECTORSHIP WITH ALL THE RIGHT CREDENTIALS. CAN'T IMAGINE ANY OF THEM SIGNING UP WITHOUT FULLY RESEARCHING THE UPSIDE TO PEB's TECHNOLOGY AND BUSINESS PLAN.......THEIR OWN CREDIBILITY IS ALSO AT STAKE. THE POSITIVES JUST KEEP BUILDING FOR PEB. GOOD WORK!
Hi Balance,
I often read your posts and respect the level of research and information that you present... but the top 100 have purchased a minimal 171k of shares over the last two weeks which only represents a 0.08% movement... hardly smart money buying up.
Long time lurker, first time poster
I have found the information on these boards useful and fun to read. I thought I would add my ten cents as to why I hold PEB.
First and foremost they have an exciting market which they are trying to crack and no doubt they will earn staggering amounts of cash if successful in the US.
I have modelled PEB and can come up with a share price in the vicinity of $10 +. My main method for valuation was a DCF, constructed by looking at the way other successful cancer diagnostics have captured their respective markets and the rate at which this happens. Obviously this is a best case valuation and could be party to a number of risks which I have clearly ignored in a best case scenario.
Genomics have a breast cancer screening diagnostic which took well over 10 years to gain around 70% of their possible market. It is slow going but if PEB starts well I would expect the market to price in this expectation rather quickly, as did Genomics shareholders.
The second company which intrigues me is Exact Sciences. They are in the process of regulatory approval, and comemrcialisation of a non invasive colon cancer diagnostic should begin soon. They are valued at 1bn NZD + and have about 10 analysts covering the stock. The pricing of Blue Sky in America amazes me and I hope the same fate eventuates for PEB.
I would be really eager to know the number of trials that are going on with DHB's around NZ as well. Clearly the uptake by these organisations should be a clear sign as to whats to come in America. If any body knows anything more about that, I would be keen to know!
Any way, lets all enjoy the ride, to riches or ashes!
http://www.thelifesciencesreport.com
This website here has been useful, but I have to give most of the credit to google. Do enough digging and you eventually find some gems.
It really is an interesting universe and there will be lots of fantastic opportunities. One of my gravest concerns is the speed in which technology evolves and develops within the biotech space, particularly genetic diagnostics, seems to be the hottest thing around and stocks are likely to fall just as quickly as they have risen. As soon as someone develops something slightly better its gameover.
Has anyone heard of an australian company producinv a bladder cancer diagnostic. privately owned company called sienna I think
http://www.wired.co.uk/news/archive/...7/09/odoreader
Hi there!
I've just stumbled upon the article above which links to a study published only recently: http://www.plosone.org/article/info%...l.pone.0069602
At first glance the Odoreader seems to be a very similar product to Cxbladder but I guess it would be pointless to publish a study if an equivalent product such as Cxbladder already exists and starts to sell on the US market, right?
Would someone knows what are the actual differences between both and if it could potentially impact negatively PEB even though they seem to still be testing their product?
Some serious buying coming into PEB this morning to take on the seller?
Someone just put 125,000 to buy at 60 cents.
Let's see if the seller will give away stock.
That is a serious bid.... lets see if he moves it up a cent ?
This stock seems to me to be waiting for some good news.. just a sniff and we could have 10c on in 10 minutes.
Shame no one is related to the Tea Lady, at Hershey.
I bet mellow yellow isn't the drink of choice, it would remind them of their work too much.
Well, someone got a sweet deal for 100k shares!
https://nzx.com/companies/PEB/announcements/238500
Surprised the holder of the 100,000 RPP's only converted what they had originally paid to obtain 7,299 shares
If he could have anted up 24k, he'd have been able to lock in a 36k profit.
philanthropic perhaps?
A possible future competitor bladder cancer detection product?
Best Wishes
Paper Tiger
The PEB chart is looking a bit squeezed, five anguished tests of $0.61 resistance in the last six weeks too, won't do that forever.
Be nice if the good folk at PEB would formally announce first US sales, even just to pop us over the line ?
.....nothing like a bit of healthy competition to highlight the alternatives to traditional thinking! The idea of only having to wait 30 minutes for a result must be appealing BUT I somehow doubt this odour testing will give a comprehensive analysis such as will result from PEBs technology.......and this is what Urologists will naturally be looking for. Might be years before they convert their prototype into the pictured compact (artists impression),then have it approved. Meantime PEB will (hopefully) be cementing its place as the new benchmark in Bladder Cancer diagnosis.........not to mention other cancers.
Bollinger bands are getting extremely tight, with only a 4 cent gap between them. MACD is also teetering on moving into positive territory. Seems like there's a big seller that lets the price up to 61 and then starts selling hard again. I'm expecting a breakout soon, whether it be a result of institutional buying or traders pushing it high if it can break out above 62 or so. Been so many "almost" runs in the last few months, so this could all fizzle into nothing again. Ah well, even if it doesn't take off, indications of US sales in a few months will get it moving!
The AGM is only just over a month away. If there is no news before then, the meeting should provide an interesting update .
"...Traditionally, one of the methods used to pick up early signs of bladder cancer involves training dogs to sniff out the telltale scent – although using dogs for diagnoses in a hospital is far from ideal. However, the fact that dogs could detect cancer through smells gave rise to the idea that the key could be in the odor of certain gases."
“These results are very encouraging for the development of new diagnostic tools for bladder cancer, but we now need to look at larger samples of patients to test the device further before it can be used in hospitals,” says Professor Chris Probert of the University of Liverpool." - If the experience of PEB proves anything it is that simply identifying "the need to look at larger samples" is a far cry from what it actually takes to put this testing device "into hospitals". Dreaming.
And now - Cellmid goes Japanese with latex.
http://www.cellmid.com.au/content_co...ouncements.seo
Yes Major - read about this earlier. Moving into cancer diagnostics too by the look of it. Do you reckon this could have any negative impact on PEB?
Damned if I know - this is all getting very confusing with all the different types of cancer and different methods of diagnosis - cellmid doing this - peb doing that- dogs sniffing this and that - startrek devices- think I will set my exit point at 15.71 about now and do a bit of waiting - as usual.:)
I can't imagine why there would be.
The squeeze is currently on the PEB share price - I'm expecting some extreme volatility in the near future (a large and sudden increase or decrease). The last time PEB was under similar circumstances the SP went from ~40 cents to ~70 cents. Looking at the technicals, I can't see an indication as to which way it will go (although based on the prospects of the company one would imagine that the odds are somewhat in favor of upwards). I will be watching the SP very closely over the next wee while.
Thanks Johnny & Major. At the rate technology is moving (for this oldish fella anyway), it is quite difficult to keep up with it all and, if I'm honest, I am getting left further & further behind. However, the fact that PEB has done all its testing and is now rampaging around its market (well, hopefully!), it gives me confidence at least for the short to medium term that they are ring fencing some real decent revenue now. I am impressed with the methodical (& humble) way in which they have gone about their business. They've done the hard yards and should be enough ahead of their competitors to cement their position in the market. I certainly agree about the technical pressure building - and, just like last year, seems like people are waiting for the AGM next month - where the SP went from .20 to .70 very quickly. I was impressed with what I saw and heard at last years AGM - let's hope it repeats itself.
It seems that most of the other contenders haven't really got out the starting gate yet by comparison to PEB's effort so far. Gutometer reading shows four scenarios at the AGM
a. Its not going as well as we thought it should. Likelihood reading 10%
b. Its going pretty much as planned. Likelihood reading 50%
c. Its going much faster than we had planned for but we can handle it. Likelihood reading 30%
d. Its far exceeding our expected uptake. Likelihood reading 10%
share price a .30
share price b .80
share price c 1.50
share price d 2.50
based on pure speculation, reading this thread, gut feeling (there is quite a bit of it), reading the competition websites and generally googling the heck out of everything even remotely related. Imho:)
I'd be happy with b at this stage ... which would be consistent with the way the company has been progressing to date. The great thing is, they have been methodical and humble. I like the way Mr Darling doesn't rant about the marketplace talking up the SP (which has no indication that it is being kept there by fresh (or hot?) air.
Must say you are an expert on finding the good oil, Hancocks. Afraid I will have to bow to superior knowledge on this one as most of what is descibed is pretty well incomprehensible to me. However the proof is in the pudding or SP for us so there is no reason not to participate just on the basis of not being able to understand every last detail. Cheers from one blown away with medical and scientific parlance:)
point taken on the midkine as 1 of 5 and part of a toolbox though and thanks for that
I think we would all be happy with b. I would give your higher ones less of a chance though - starting out will be the hardest time sales wise as you will have a chicken and egg scenario. "Nobody else is using your test, why should we?" I can just imagine being said many times during sales discussions! Most likely followed, on the PEB guys by "I will tell you what, we will give you a hundred for free (or cheap), evaluate these against your current methods and see how it stacks up. That's 50k worth of tests! But we want rights to publish your results and to use them in future sales pitches.", hopefully followed by "OK, that sounds good, sign us up!"
I think you are correct Brighton Early, we should be patient as sales management roll out their well presented strategy.
There is no PEB commitment to quarterly reporting. David Darling did advise that he will update us on sales later in the year, however I took this to mean that this would be at half year reporting in November.
PEB could though take a lot of volatility out by incrementally announcing sales agreements as and when they arise with DHB's and similar organisations within the US and Europe. The last one was only six weeks or so ago in May, we should be starting to see more as the year progresses.
I'm in awe of your research Hancocks. I'm ashamed of how little research I do, it's usually just my gut instinct or following someone elses research.
I reiterate - thank you Hancocks. I really appreciate your input into this thread.
Well it appears someone is selling this morning leaving PEB on it's MA200 for the first time in a year or so.
I don't think we will see this again for some time, very very tempting ..............
Has te story changed - no.
Unusually big volume - no
So why the selling - nervous people.
So don't be one of them. 8-)
Doubling down is always a risky, not recommended game. Better to have faith and ride out the fluctuations. From what I see, PEB plays there cards close to their chest and when they report good news this stock will go. Until then, go for a long walk around the block.
I wish.
I will point out that I was only nervous as my buying appears to be a sell signal for the rest of the market (how they know I have no idea), especially of late. My sells however appear to be triggers for the stock to rally (luckly I only did partial sell downs recently where shares were overwieght, not the full holding)
I am happy with my existing holding, and given my optimism, doubling that probably isn't a bad idea, at the right price.
It seems the big player has not got enough chips.
Pretty interesting situation happening from a technical perspective right now (so please read this as only technical, has nothing to do with the future success of the company)...
Resistance is sitting at 61 cents, whilst there is support at 58 cents. The thing that interests me the most is the EXTREMELY tight bollinger bands, indicating very low volatility. It cannot stay this way, volatility will return. This is called a "squeeze". A break outside of either band will occur very rapidly and the run will generally be quite large, especially due to extreme tightening here. There is also the 200 DMA at 56 cents which should act as major support if the lower band was to be broken. OBV has recently been going downwards, indicating money flowing out of the stock (evident through the daily depth, a few big sellers getting out).
From my view, I believe there is enough support for PEB to break out upwards instead of downwards (although this can't be predicted). I would be extremely surprised if 56 cents was broken, I feel that it wont be able to get through 58 (on volume). A close on or above 62 cents would indicate a definite buy.
Disc: Hold a good chunk of PEB.
Attachment 4665
The fundamentals are certainly to the upside.
PEB have demonstrated sound management in meeting their capital raising obligations, all necessary regulatory approvals are in place, all laboratories are now operational, and a well presented sales strategy is presently being rolled out.
At some point we should expect the market to back the stock and to start pricing in forward sales.
......... or until a trigger comes along like the next anticipated DHB contract announcement, could happen at anytime.
This is a bit like waiting for Mt Taranaki to blow its top - we have a pretty good idea it will happen but just not sure when. Pressure seems to be building though and in a years time 58 cents may look like the bargain of the century. It seems to me that this stock is a long term hold on the central core holding and possibly a trader with smaller additional amounts. Look at it as a term deposit - leave it for a year and see what you get - bet its more than the bank.:)
Here's one crowd offering education to its readers ...
http://sierracancer.com/news/bladder...ou-should-know
...and under this heading "Testing for bladder cancer"...
..."Other tumor marker screening tests, like UroysionTM, BTA tests, ImmunocytTM and NMP22 BaldderChek® provided inconsistent and inconclusive results making them unreliable."
I'm surprised they don't seem to know about CxBladder ...or what PEB offers...
Why wait for these support sites to be notified by their specialist advisors, why can't we help speed up the process and inform them of the benefits of CxBladder ourselves. If someone can put together a letter that can be sent to multiple sources ( I failed english at school ) I will email it to every resource website that mentions screen testing for Bladder Cancer so they can investigate for themselves if they need to update their websites. Who knows, it might help spread the word faster. Feel free to tell me this is a stupid idea:)
Fair call Balance and I get what you're saying but aren't the foundations already in place, we are at the point where people need to be informed to at least investigate the benefits CxBladder offer. There are hundreds of forums out there that could be posted on to at least inform the patients suffering from this horrible condition. Care would be required so posts come across as being informative rather than pushing a product. Something to think about, you can't beat the power of people to spread the word.
Far better people find out from their Urologist rather than some dude/dudette on the internet called Hilskin.
PEB are doing it right - targeting the doctors who will actually influence decisions. They want to be mainstream, not some alternative method found on the interwebs.
Fair enough, just having trouble keeping patient over here. Can't wait to see if Pacific Edge make good on all this potential they have.:)
Think you may have it around the wrong way - perhaps it may be better to compile a list of these sites and send it to Pacific Edge as possible contacts for PEB sales departments. I do think that PEB should be in complete control of their dealings and left to get on with it. PEB is pretty clued up and may have all this under the radar anyway. Good idea though and shows initiative but possibly may do more harm than good.
Spanky--sounds like he has had to much of that product
ha ha ha .... what a real crack up reading this...thanks for giving us a laugh you guys (gals?)...hehehe
Thanks Hancocks, appreciate the time and effort you put in to find this stuff.:t_up:
Have been quietly topping up. Am really impressed with the thoroughly professional approach 'management et al' have to getting CxBladder into the medical arena. And also very grateful for the informed comment+ posted in this thread!
Particularly interested that Cx bladder is being measured against cytoscopy and follow up as the " gold standard". Did I read somewhere amongst this thread that during some tests that cx bladder identified more cancers than that method. Would suggest that Cx bladder has a good chance of being the gold standard if that is the case. Once again thanks for your hard work and for sharing with us, Hancocks
What you may be thinking of Major was one of the very good outcomes from the cxbladder trial carried out in Australia and New Zealand. During the trial, 3 of the patients that initially tested positive with cxbladder, but negative in the clinical work up, later were shown to have bladder cancer.
Detected urothelial carcinoma (4%) not identified by Cystoscopy during the clinical work-up but confirmed by Cystoscopy at the 12 month follow-up.
I would guess that this is an outcome that Pacific Edge is pointing to in getting clinicians on board. I'm sure it's a good way of getting urologists to sit up and take notice of the benefits of using cxbladder.
Will this get them accross the line to purchase?
Seems here's another one getting closer ...
http://www.sciencecodex.com/novel_ge...eatment-116292
The 58 cent support appears to be holding up well, which is nice to see. I do have a small suspicion that someone may be trying to keep the price down (make small trades that push the price down at closing and other weird trades), as was noted by someone a few weeks back. Not really worth over thinking though.
Found this by accident in announcements for CDY.
http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/2013072...968fbmmfnyq.pd
or perhaps go to asx announcements CDY if it doesnt work
It seems any listing below 60c would be cleared. Haha...
https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/179067.pdf
I imagine these have gone to Cellmid? I thought the ones a few weeks back were, so I'm not too sure who has been getting what. Either way, I think we can confidently say that at least one test has been sold in the US. Probably a bit soon to be gauging sales, but has anyone heard anything from anyone on how CxBladder is going in the US?
On the technical front, the stand off continues!
Edit: And there's conformation http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/2013080...k7s1svhwg0.pdf
Hate to state the bleeding obvious but as some of us thought the first lot were for Cellmid then who got the first lot in July. Anybody know ?
Today's lot went to Cellamid. Announcement from Cellamid here.
Next question is of course how many more of these little dilutionary nibbles are in the pipeline and to whom?
Disc Holding PEB and CDY
Agree Sparky - did the same about a month ago.
If they are getting royalties etc from PEB and others...thought it would make sense to get two bites of the cherry. If PEB does well (and why wouldn't they...), then so does CDY.
Appreciate (& agree with) your well informed research as always Hancock's ... thank you. All taken onboard.
For me, given CDY is a penny stock, the investment didn't require a lot of upfront $$$.
However, probably the wrong way of looking at it, but for me to double my $$$ then CDY needs to crack approx 6c per share. For me to do the same with XRO - they need to attain approx $35 per share - or with RYM they would need to reach $14 per share. In either case, my $$$ upfront would be far in excess of what I paid for CDY and my waiting time I think would be less.
Disc. PEB has already tripled my upfront dollars once ... and is not far off doing it again.
Thanks for that once again Hancocks - I got the impression after their Japanese announcement that Cellmid had quite a few irons in the fire so to speak which is why I bought a few just to complement PEB nicely. Sort of like the garlic on your steak.
Dentie I agree with you that 3-6c a share is more easily attainable than 17.50 to 35.00 BUT the risk of bad news is proportionately higher but perhaps favouring the lower priced share -i.e. bad news could drop it to 2 but bad news at 17 could have you back at 4 in no time. I tend to favour the below 1.00 area with a smattering of sub .10.
Of course I could become a great fan of over 10 bucks if everything goes right.:)
Thanks again Hancocks. I take your point about new members perhaps misreading comments for buy/sell signals. I take everything on the forums as an opportunity to learn from the more experienced traders but make sure I take a position ONLY after doing my own research. That way, I only have myself to blame .... or, if I've done the correct research...thank!
When is the next update/scheduled report from peb
The AGM is on 22nd August 2013, half year reporting is 29th November 2013.
I'll be going to the AGM, hope to see others there also. It would be relieving to hear a little more out of PEB from time to time, but it is a very early stage in their sales curve and we must be patient. Hopefully PEB will kindly consider quarterly reporting once things get going better in the US and more regular sales growth is the norm.
Edit: AGM date corrected to 22/08/2013 on good advice.
I think you may have the wrong date for the AGM Mac. According to the NZX announcement on May 22nd, the PEB AGM is Thursday August 22nd. Will probably advise of the time and venue this week.
Thanks Barney, https://www.nzx.com/companies/PEB/announcements/236511
Have also booked flights for the AGM. Will be my first AGM in hopefully a long investment career.
Hancocks for me it says you've only posted 23 times.. I'm almost certain I've personally read more from you over the last year or so. Anyways, perhaps it just feels like more with all the information you pack in! Thanks
Stuff news has an article re diagnostic test for heart attack this a.m. Sounds like Cellmid and Otago University are at it again. Another in the pipeline for Pacific Edge?:t_up:
sorry havent sorted out how to do links on this tablet
usual result 2+2 =5:blush:
David spills some nice advice .... and I don't believe PEB is ugly!!
http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/unli...ion-challenges
I’m not sure if this is really a new promo or not, but for those new to PEB it seems a good general summary of the Cxbladder trial to be on thread.
All part of the greater sales plan I’m sure, would like to think this on every US urologist's desk top by now!.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m7HNJhQjdwE