A2 main products are fresh milk and baby milk powder, do you think dairy auction result will much affect their business?
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Synlait make the platinum formula. At this stage that's not ATM's major source of revenue, which at present is the bottled milk in Australia.
ATM's platinum formula will be competing with other infant powders in China, so although it's great that it has Chinese registration, that doesn't mean an instant profit boom for ATM. The Chinese public will have to learn why they should pay more for ATM platinum.
And platinum also has other markets that don't rely on Chinese approval. The places to watch, IMO, are UK, Europe, Korea and USA as well as Australia. I think far too much attention is being paid to the Synlait connection by speculators. As a long term substantial holder (AWPP 11 cents) I just can't see why the ATM SP has been moving around so much. Irrational.
Looking good for a continuation of todays action tomorrow if the US market doesn't throw any curve balls overnight. I'd be picking it to touch 70 and close around 68, but we shall see.
Disc: trading it.
Welcome aboard. Same as you, I felt that each parcel I bought, it was replaced straight away by another parcel of 30 to 100 thousand. So somebody it seems is drip feeding their large holding into the market. It really made me feel like a duck. No worries , we will see how the milk run goes tomorrow.
I bought in yesterday to, but with the big sellers capping everything i wonder if i moved to soon, time will tell.
Higher volume today at over 3.2m by only 1.40 pm (the highest for over a month). High volume often, but not always, signals a pivot and momentum swing.
It's still a long time before we get to the November AGM -- I suspect some more good news is required before we see a turnaround to this present downward momentum.
Discl: holding.
You might expect that with high dollar and a stall in china that results might be lower than hoped but this might be offset by improvement in uk and an announcement about USA. How they structure us will also be a factor.
AUD currency has been strengthened by today's trimmed mean CPI figure of 3% (upper end of target). Copper, Iron Ore, Uranium and other resource are showing signs of a recovery. European money pouring into Australia since the ECB dropped interest rates last month, and associated housing demand makes it almost certain IMO that their RB will raise rates next time around.
Therefore I would be surprised if the Kiwi strengthened much more against the Aussie dollar...well, not for long anyhow.
Im out today at 65c
have been feeling uncomfortable with these for some time (should of sold earlier)
nothing wrong with the product , but would rather have my money in something less speculative
Has anyone thanked JoshuaTree for putting up the list of major holders? I certainly want to. Thanks JT.
But can anyone ungarble for me who these outfits actually are?
Ratkin I don’t thing ATM can still be regarded as speculative stock, yes it was a couple of years back, was when I brought in at 22 cents Sept. 2011. But no longer, their products are produced and sold in several countries. Joshuatree list (post 1374) of the top 20 shareholders, shows there are a number of well-respected investors amongst them.
Thanks very much Joshuatree for the comprehensive list.
AND...we are back in the downtrend by the looks of it :( very thin buy side and lots sellers with big bundles.
sold what i bought the other day, was really hopeing that announcement would change the trend but I dont think so, better to be out for me then watch it drop, at least im making my broker happy.
I bought on the day of the announcement re China rego, and then sold out this morning after seeing it trade flat for the third day. More downside it would seem and will sleep better not owning this stock until it once again starts to establish an upward trendline...which is not this week.
Agreed. Got out for a small profit, so all is well.
It seems most sellers today are those who expected sp sparking from china reg.announcement. I want to see this year final report before take any action.
Disc. HOLD
Why should the amount that someone trades matter? It's all relative to each person. It's like you're trying to claim that your d**k is bigger than everyone else's - get a life mate.
You seem to have something against traders. Maybe you are blaming them for losses that you have incurred in recent times? Everyone has their own way, and just because it's different to yours doesn't make it wrong. If you're a FA and in it for the long term then noise created by traders shouldn't be an issue.
IMHO when the seller is done this is going to go bananas. Maybe, just maybe, now IS the time to be stocking up as when they're finished it might be hard to get a decent amount at anywhere near these prices. Sure you might lose 10 cents as it keeps sliding but you might save 20 cents over what you'd have to buy in at on the way up. Maybe.
Disc) Prime ATM breeding bull with a whole forum of cows to get through
With over 40 million shares since AMP's May announcement it doesn't look like any of the big holders are selling down big.
In the time frame for this top 100(i posted just top 27 )the total vol of shares has dropped by measly 0.1%. So its not a big holder bailing out but small ones. Bearish retail investors that don't read share trader?:mellow:
Top 100 shareholders total 577,724,191 shares
Total ATM shares 660,666, 979 share
The 100thshareholder holds 188,550
There has been only a tiny movement from 27 to 100 ;negligible.
Yeah it doesn't stack up hence my thought has some one borrowed x amount of shares and is shorting them; artificially creating a down trend and at some stage will giviethe shares back and pocket the diff. Can shorting be done / is it allowed on the NZX?
I'll send my replies to the above to the after market lounge to avoid clogging the thread, see you at the bar.
We are all in it to make money, why would i buy and hold into a downtrend, the only thing im going to do there is loose money.
Id rather loose a small amount and protect my capital.
Sure id love to buy in a atm at 65 and have it go up to 100+ in a year or so but until the trend changes its not going to happen.
I haven't been around for long enough on this thread to be lecturing some of the old hands, but:
Why do some of our members just keep trying to score points against each other in a most personalised, negative and degrading way all the time? Where does it get them and us?
Nowhere.
When one member scores an insulting shot off another, it may give the scorer a hot feeling of satisfaction, but frankly he/she goes down in almost everyone else's estimation.
I know it's been suggested before, but let's just grow up. God, it takes bloody hours to read through this thread for just a few gems of knowledge and constructive thought. Let's just talk to each other in a civil way.
Somebody just said "we're all in it to make money". Yeah! In my case probably not for me but for my grandkids' education. I'm not a trader but I do recognise traders have their place in the market. I'm also not a TA, not because I think it's rubbish, but it just isn't my approach. We're all here for different reasons, with different areas of speciality. So let it be.
Over on PEB there's an honest attempt by a lot of contributors to add real fundamental knowedge to the equation. Some actually know what they're talking about, and it's great, although there's a fair bit of point-scoring there as well. Here, I feel real knowledge is hard to come by, mainly personal sniping. It won't change my strategy, but it infuriates me.
I once started up a tech company myself, with venture capital from a major financial institution, whose eminent boss said he expected only one in five new venture startups to reach a profit-making stage, but that would justify its losses on the other four. Mine wasn't a winner because some of my fellow directors milked it dry before it got there, but I got out with my capital intact.
But I learnt a lot from that experience, and the reason I'm an ATM holder is that several years ago I decided to risk a portion of my capital on three new tech companies, simply because I believed in doing so as a contribution to NZ Inc. They were ATM, BLT and BotryZen (forgotten its code now). Well ATM has turned up trumps, the other two didn't. So that's why I'm in ATM, but frankly it doesn't bother me why anyone else is (unless it's Fonterra or someone trying to bugger things up). I'm in the top whatever but I'm not selling, in fact I'm topping up. But in the process I've come to believe in the company and feel proud of its product.
I think the present management is brilliant, and so is the product. But if others think differently, I'm always interested in their thoughts - but not the snarkiness. OK I've said enough.
The A2 war in oz still goes on.
Jumping on A2 bandwagon
http://adf.farmonline.com.au/news/ma...px?storypage=1
That story purporting to investigate where the truth lies regarding A2 Milk is just so full of incorrect and misleading information as to be a total travesty of journalism. I often respond to articles that contain incorrect info, but this one is just so full of BS I wouldn't know where to start. I think someone from the mainstream industry (probably Dairy Australia or one of A2's competitors) has taken the writer concerned out to a pretty good lunch.
For a start, of course, if parents are actually reporting good results from A2 milk on autistic kids, they don't have to be medical experts to notice the difference, so their observations should not be dismissed as non-expert. And it's blatantly misleading to suggest that the A2 site doesn't give references for any of the research papers supporting the A1-A2 hypothesis - what it does, and makes it real easy, is provide a "click on" for a reputable external site that carries vast amounts of detail for anyone interested.
I could go on, but like M98 says, it's a war, and all's fair as they say. I'm not sure how widely this article was published. It originated in a regional newspaper.
Agree that the article contained some pretty inaccurate information. The evidence in a2's favour is still pretty sketchy though. Researchers in the area that I have personally talked to completely dismiss it. Placebo effect is a wonderful thing though, so even if a2 is no different it doesn't mean ATM can't be a large successful company.
Thats right a while back i couldn't find scientific "proof" that it works and ignored the stock. Much later and the people have decided it does and A2's mkts are increasing and vol is growing;so I'm now waiting for the bend at the end of this shorted trend.
Whatever.... it doesn't matter.
And they were force feeding us that bloody awful marg telling us butter would kill us. Even the bloody flies knew not to touch that stuff.
http://time.com/2863227/ending-the-war-on-fat/
We shouldn’t forget also that it’s not ATM’s ambition to replace A1 milk, there will be an optimal market share whereby they can maintain a 50% retail price point premium as a product within the “premium milk market”, without competing directly with A1 retailers on margins.
What I think we have seen this year in Australia, with an 8% market share, is the A1 main stream retailers just starting to take some notice as their bottom lines may have been dinged by a percent or two within an overall shrinking market.
Just a gut feel view, I’m picking a levelling off at an optimal point at about 12 to 15% in Australia, in a couple of years from now.
UK’s next, much bigger market, ATM’s goal is to achieve a 1.8% market share by 2016, and a quick google suggests it’s got some good support already. US market after that.
Onward and forward, the more debate the better.
resistance which i mentioned in a earlier post has well and truly held, which means we are headed lower. 50c anyone?
Huge sell volumes still there. Someone driving the price down for a take-over?
It's true that to a large extent perception is reality, but the reality is changing. There is more and more science supporting the A2 hypothesis, as reported in peer-reviewed research papers all around the world, and so-called experts who rubbish it in casual conversations either haven't read it or just don't want to believe it for some non-scientific reason.
I go back to the point I've made previously, that despite the enormous research resources available to the mainstream dairy industry globally, which would love to demolish the A2 hypothesis, there has been NO credible scientific research paper disproving it or even seriously undermining it. The science is all heading in one direction, albeit gradually and carefully, corroborating the risks of A1 and the benefits, therefore, of drinking A2. The food safety authorities are not denying it, they're simply saying they are not yet accepting it as fully proven, which is basically a copout.
Back in its early days, A2Corp got into a spot of bother because one of its suppliers over-hyped the claims for A2, but A2M itself has been very careful not to overstate where the science is at. So its health claims will not turn out to be false. As for the anecdotal reports by people with autistic kids, and people who find they can drink A2 milk but not mainstream milk, these were consumer discoveries, not claims made by ATM. Even so, recent research stimulated by such reports has started coming up with good data, both theoretical and clinical, that helps explain these observed phenomena, and it hasn't been refuted. It's a lot more than observer bias, placebo effect etc.
I have always loved the David and Goliath story behind ATM and have dreamed of the day that A2 is regarded as normal, and A1 is the cheap distant cousin. The IP and Licensing could be worth potentially more than the milk produced, until all herds have been tested that is.
Ivano De Noni was part of the original EFSA review team that concluded there was no evidence the BCM7 could get through to the blood.
He has since published two papers showing BCM7 was released into the intestines from not only "normal" milk but all dairy products containing A1 beta casein, such as cheese, yoghurt and infant formula.
Easy to search and find this info in public records, too large to include here.
I feel sure a takeover is on the cards soon as IMHO its the only was to ensure the worlds A1 milk can be disguised. :(
I feel sure a takeover is on the cards soon as IMHO its the only was to ensure the worlds A1 milk can be disguised.
I'm afraid you may be right, WC, and this could explain why someone is driving the SP down. But the question remains, who is behind it? Is the potential acquirer a "good guy" just trying to cash in on the huge returns that lie ahead, through either a full or partial takeover offer? Or is it, as you suggest, an attempt by interests who feel threatened by A2 and want to shut down the debate. Potentially there are huge global dairy issues at stake here.
That's why I would really like to know more about some of the big holders shown on the table of major shareholders who have uninformative corporate names, and why I think we need to watch any changes in their holdings very carefully.
I'm uneducated in the outcome of takeovers,what would that mean for current holders particularly for those of us that paid a lot more than the current share price?
I presume the directors advise shareholders if the offer is fair. I wouldn't be to sure of a takeover yet. Price reflects no recent news about sales or new opportunities.
Shareholders get to vote as to whether the offer price is acceptable, $5 each is what I'll be holding out for:)
Much cheaper than herd conversion on a global scale.
I think ATM current share trading condition mostly linked to oz A2 war which big milk brand owners smash ATM share price could for takeover or just want to damage share price so ATM will difficult to get funding?
Does NZX have powers to investigate short selling as described by Snapiti and Moosie, or a suspicion of it? Is it in any way a violation of trading rules? Might NZX ask a questionabout recent SP falls and trading patterns? It does look like a good explanation for what's been happening in a pretty illiquid market with mostly a few small traders apart from the odd big purchase by Milford, who probably wouldn't mind too much. Could it even be Milford? Presumably it could only be detected by NZX getting access to brokers' transactions, and maybe it could be fairly well disguised even then.
Does NZX have powers to investigate the kind of SP manipulation suggested by Snapiti and Moosie? Is it in any way a violation of trading rules? It does seem like a very plausible explanation for what's been happening in a relatively illiquid market apparently populated mainly by small traders (apart from Milford), given that the only new announcement recently has been a positive one (Chinese infant formula approval).
Might NZX ask a question of ATM to get things started? Could it even be Milford? I guess the only way to determine if there has been repetitive buying and selling to push the price down, incurring a relatively modest temporary loss, would be for NZX to get access to brokers' transaction records, and even then it could no doubt be heavily disguised. Any ideas?
If the price keeps going down it will make it too tempting for other big institutions to get in. ie. Milford could buy another 10,000,000. And if big holders already have 86% of ATM then that only leaves 82,409,377 left for us little holders. So my plan is to top up here and there to the bottom, Just like AIR a couple of years ago , it might work, who knows.
This is exactly my point from earlier. Top up now. Sure you might lose 10 cents on paper in the very near future when it keeps sliding. But good luck trying to get any decent volume of shares when it finally turns, there will be very little on offer and you will end up having to pay a very big premium to today's price costing you far more than the 10 cents you're losing on paper. IMHO.
As a new member, I apologise if this has already been discussed. Some of you may be interested to know that the campaign against A2 milk in Australia appears to not only be sustained, but also increasing in scale with regular, and crafty, television commercials appearing this week in regard to the 'naturally occurring' presence of the A2 protein in Dairy Farmers' milk. Worryingly, from talking to friends and colleagues, some of which use A2 milk exclusively, it appears that many are unaware that it is the absence of the A1 protein, rather than the presence of the A2 protein, that differentiates ATM's products.
You're absolutely right, Fuzzy. The company has long had a policy of emphasising the "benefits" of the A2 protein rather than emphasising the essential point that A1 is a risk factor ("The Devil in Milk" as Keith Woodford's book calls it) and needs to be excluded from milk. This appears to be because ATM doesn't want to scare people totally off drinking standard milk which contains both proteins, and has wanted to avoid buying a head-on confrontation with the mainstream industry. It's important to remember that the people who process and distribute A2 milk in NZ, Australia and the UK also handle standard milk containing A1, and would take offence mightily if ATM in effect described their other product lines as dangerous.
Having some PR experience I mentioned to the company some time back that its policy would eventually come back to bite it, and that's now happening in Australia. It will also happen in other markets if ATM continues the same sales pitch.
There's now enough solid science for the company to change its message to make it clearer, that SOME CONSUMERS (not all) are at risk from adverse effects if they drink milk containing the A1 protein, and it's only by drinking pure A2 milk that they can avoid those effects. My guess is that if ATM's market share in Australia runs into problems it will soon start modifying its message to consumers. The aggressiveness and blatant dishonesty of its rivals is sufficient provocation to now do this.
If Lion (Pura) as one of the larger fresh milk companies is presently pushing A2, it would seem extraordinarily hypocritical if they were to now or ever try and discredit the clinical benefits of A2 over A1. Mainstream providers acknowledging A2 can only be a good thing for ATM in the long term.
If it proves that consumers are wise enough to know that “not all milk is equal”, and perhaps ATM will help with that message, then Lion may well be shooting themselves in the foot.
In six month’s time, as a consumer, you could buy Pura, you could buy Lion’s standard milk, or you could buy A2, but, if from the debate more consumers understand the difference, then consumers may well jump from Lion standard milk to ATM.
Debate ---> Awareness ---> A2 Sales
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DbQRnnJ1O84
Yes it smacks of a little desperation , try anything tactic. Good for ATM if they have the skill to manoeuvre around the big Boys.
NO TRADES today so far.!!!?
Seems india start interesting in A2 milk also.
http://www.orissadiary.com/CurrentNews.asp?id=52120
Not just starting, M98, they've been working on this for years, both the lab science and the genetics, because the Asian cow (bos indicus) is naturally A2 and there's quite an effort being made to cash in on this, and to prevent cross-breeding with European breeds. Some of the good A2 research is coming out of India.
more news about A2
http://triblive.com/neighborhoods/yo...#axzz38nqS2hAt
QMaster98;494494]more news about A2
http://triblive.com/neighborhoods/yo...#axzz38nqS2hAt[/QUOTE]
I presume they are paying royalties on the sales?.
The a2 Milk Company™ owns and commercialises unique intellectual property (patents, trademarks, proprietary processes) relating to a2™ brand milk and related products in international markets.
Latest A2 recommendation, target price 73c.
http://www.fnarena.com/index2.cfm?ty...190387950CF5DD
I'm waiting for the anti-A2 PR Australian campaign to die down before getting back into this stock. Selling pressure may not abate for a few weeks, in spite of Milford buying.
The sooner a corrected message gets communicated (i.e. "it's the A1 in milk that's potentially damaging") the better.
Good implicit news and tailwinds on three fronts for ATM;
1. Fonterra slashes 2015 milk payout forecast to $6/kgMS
2. Forecasts drop Kiwi dollar
3. Uncertainty exists as to a recovery on global dairy prices (costs)
http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/BU140...t-to-6kgms.htm
one thing no argue is A1 can produce BCM7 upon digestion and A2 don't produce this stuff at all, BCM7 is similar to opioid which definitely is not a good one, someone can "immune" to BCM7 and others can not, just like "smoking can cause lung cancer" but still huge population of smokers, as only small percentage of smokers get cancer. I can not say how bad A1 milk is, at least A2 is better than A1 milk.
I have a daughter who's been diagnosed as lactose intolerant, and so has been drinking expensive Zero-lacto milk for several years. It may be that she is instead BCM7-intolerant, in which case A2 milk would suffice. Countdown here locally sells A2 today for $2.35 per litre, which is cheaper than I thought it would be.
We will need a week or so before we can tell whether or not it works for her. If so, I'll be buying back into this stock, as an act of gratitude!
I snapped a couple of pics today at the local coles supermarket (dont know how to upload pics on the mobile ST site) - the a2 bottles now have tags on the lids saying "naturally a1 free" with a short note on the back - they have started pushing the message..... take that Pura! Will upload pics tomorrow if i get a chance.
Thanks Ginger ;a proactive response from ATM. S/P stepping up a little ;hope to buy some soon.
Also good to hear frontera upping their dividend forecast because of lower price they will pay for milk.
It’s desperation from Lion, they are losing on a lot of fronts;
http://ausfoodnews.com.au/2014/04/07...ia-and-wa.html
They can’t sell so much into their A1/A2 market and seem to want to have a go at the ‘premium milk market’. Consumers will see through it and it just adds to the A2 market message at no expense to ATM.
https://www.dropbox.com/sh/cuxvtky8o...OD7AQLYcSHrxMa
Here are the photos I snapped yesterday, you can se both sides of the label in the two photos (I had to share a Dropbox folder - the ST site wont let me upload photos from my mac) - Pretty good effort all in all I think. I assume they are waiting for some solid scientific evidence before really hammering home the message about the potential harmful effects of A1. Also note in the photo that Coles are promoting a2 by doing a "buy a2 (2ltr) and get a tin of milo for $4.50" special - I have never seen any type of promotion like this for milk in Coles - (including their own brand) so I assume they have Coles on side for the "milk war" - a pretty solid partner to ally with!
The larger font used on the label for the word "FREE" is bound to get the attention of shoppers.
ATM's price has shown some decent support over the past few days since bottoming at 60c last week. It is now touching its downward trend-line, and so the present day technical challenge is for it to now punch through...to avoid dropping again to test the low 60's.
I'm watching the trading volume which I figure will be what's needed to lift the price along route 66.
Thanks very much for that, Ginger. Excellent photography and great info. However, I'm still not happy. The message is still not clear enough in my view. My preferred text would be more hard-hitting, along the lines of:
“Regular dairy milk on the market today contains a combination of two main types of beta-casein protein, A2 (the original one) and the more recent A1. Some people have problems with milk containing A1 but can easily tolerate pure A2. So we take our a2 MilkTM from cows specially selected because they naturally produce ONLY the A2 beta-casein. There’s no A1. That’s the difference. Did you know that human mothers’ breast milk is also pure A2?”
This is all verifiable and undisputable, and it's not overly confrontational with mainstream dairy.
Works for me, I just want to try an A2 milo now :)
Agreed, and I second Snapiti's comment RE emailing your suggestion to a2. Better wording could have been used. The only thing I wonder about is the * note at the bottom "we use ....... to minimise the possibility of our milk containing A1" - basically saying a2TM may (or does) contain some A1, and therefore cant say "There's no A1"....
Lion might say silver plate contains silver, ATM could say sterling silver contains impurities, but why, the consumer learns incrementally and just knows.
It wouldn't be good marketing for ATM to take on the A1/A2 suppliers head on, or to poke them in the eye, it might satisfy some investor's appetite for absolute unwavering clarity but it's not the best way to discretionarily sell milk, positive promotion is the key to sales and marketing.
….. perhaps platinum would have been a better example.
Ginger, I take your point about the risk of saying "there's no A1". It's hard to prevent occasional accidents at the processing works. If that particular phrase were taken out, the point would still be clear - and a little less confrontational.
As regards Snapiti's suggestion that I send it to the company, they already know my views and I think their attitude would be that they know what they're doing in the Austtralian market and are paying big bucks to some PR/advertising company there while I'm just piping up from an armchair in Wellington. I'd like to think they may be watching this thread, though.
Below comments come from nz foodsafety web site:
Beta casein A1 and A2 in milk and human health: Lay Summary
About 25-30% of the protein in cows' milk is β-casein and it comes in several forms depending on the genetic make up of the cows. One of the forms is called A1 β-casein and it has been suggested that it might cause or aggravate one type 1 diabetes (which is the type seen most commonly in children), heart disease, schizophrenia, and autism. The other main form of β-casein is called A2 and it has not been not been implicated in these diseases. The evidence to support the hypothesis that the A1/A2 composition of milk is a causative or protective factor in these diseases is reviewed in the report.
The strongest evidence is for type 1 diabetes and heart disease. The main study supporting a relationship with the type of milk consumed was a comparison of 20 countries. Those countries with the highest consumption of A1 β-casein had the highest rates of type 1 diabetes and heart disease. The relationship was very strong indeed, but these types of comparisons between countries can be difficult to interpret. There are many other factors that contribute to these diseases and the information is only averaged for the whole country's population. There have been a few other human and animal studies which provide some limited support for the hypothesis. Further research, especially involving human trials, is needed before it can be said with confidence that the A1/A2 composition of milk is important in human health.
The evidence in relation to an effect of A1 β-casein on schizophrenia or autism is much less. Some individuals with autism seem to improve on special diets that are free of both casein and gluten.
The A1/A2hypothesis is both intriguing and potentially very important for population health if it is proved correct. It should be taken seriously and further research is needed. In addition, the appropriate government agencies have a responsibility to communicate the current state of evidence to the public, including the uncertainty about the evidence. Further public health actions, such as changing dietary advice or requiring labelling of milk products, are not considered to be warranted at this stage. Monitoring is also required to ensure that any claims made for A2 milk fall within the regulations for food claims.
Changing the dairy herds to more A2 producing cows is an option for the dairy and associated industries and these decisions will undoubtedly be made on a commercial basis. Changing dairy herds to more A2 producing cows may significantly improve public health, if the A1/A2 hypothesis is proved correct, and it is highly unlikely to do harm.
As a matter of individual choice, people may wish to reduce or remove A1 β-casein from their diet (or their children's diet) as a precautionary measure. This may be particularly relevant for those individuals who have or are at risk of the diseases mentioned (type 1 diabetes, coronary heart disease, autism and schizophrenia). However, they should do so knowing that there is substantial uncertainty about the benefits of such an approach.
Actually the "lay summary" posted by Master98 is ten years old and a lot of water has flowed under the bridge since then. The Food Safety Authority commissioned Professor Swinburn, a NZ endocrinologist at that time working at Deakin University in Australia, to review the published scientific literature on A1/A2.
His report was puiblished in 2004 I think. The Lay Summary which has just been posted was part of that report, but the food Safety Authority didn't like it, so it excised it from the report as published. It also issued a statement by Carole Inkster, one of its officials, putting an extremnely misleading gloss on Swinburn's basic findings. Her statement is still prominently situated on the FSA website. The FSA also released Swinburn's report on a day when it knew Swibnburn would be unable to attend a media conference to answer questions, so that the FSA's own misrepresentation of it got full media coverage without his being able to dispute it.
This caused a certain amount of protest, so the government forced the FSA to call in the head of the European FSA, Dr Slorach, to review the whole issue. His review tore a strip off the NZFSA's handling of the matter, but it also made the point quite strongly that there was not yet enough firm scientific evidence against A1 milk to justify warnings to consumers about its risk factors. The Slorach findings are still widely quoted against A2. But one thing that came out of all this was that the SFA very reluctantly reinstated the "Lay Summary" on its website, although it's not that easy to find compared with the SFA's own misinterpretation of it.
In the meantime Prof Swinburn, who had taken a very careful stance in his report, saying more research was needed to ascertain the risks attached to A1, has changed his own view in the light of the mounting research supporting the anti-A1 position, and has said he basically goes along with the A2 argument.
It needs to be remembered that at the time of the Swinburn report, part of the NZFSA's constitutional duty was to issue certificates assuring foreign purchasers of NZ dairy exports that they were totally safe to consume, so it was easy to see why they resorted to various dirty tricks to mislead the public over Swinburn's findings.
Not wanting to be accused of being a conspiratist, I'm sure that there would have been a fair amount of political pressure bought to bear on the FSA to ameliorate Swinburn's report and commission another report from a possibly more "favourable" source, where an element of uncertainty around reliability, more testing and research needed etc could be introduced into the debate. Otherwise a potential disaster to NZ's milk industry would have had a similar effect as a foot and mouth outbreak would have on the NZ economy. This would not only be a Fonterra issue but a NZ economic issue.
Who knows if Swinburn was "paid off" to emphasize that more research was needed? Emphasizing this point would not be untruthful necessarily from a scientific point of view.
Having said this, its a fairly complex scientific study that has been undertaken determining that it is the bcm-7 released from the A1 beta casein protein which makes up about 30 to 40% of total protein which causes the health issues!
Does anyone know what % of milk in NZ is type A1?
Disc: large holding in ATM
There was some politics involved, but it came from several directions. From my knowledge of Prof Swinburn, he wouldn't have given in to any political pressure, and his report, including the lay summary, was generally accepted as being of high scientific quality - given that it didn't involve any actual research by him, it was just a review of the research already carried out by others. It wouldn't surprise me if there was pressure on the FSA, mainly from the Dairy Board (as it was then), to tone down Swinburn's findings. But when the FSA's games stirred some controversy, some of the pressure to get a review of its actions came in fact from the Green Party's food safety spokeswoman, Sue Kedgley. It was the FSA's then boss who then hand-picked his friend Dr Slorach from the European FSA for the job. Wheels within wheels. The FSAs of various countries are understandably united in not wanting to create general consumer fear about drinking milk, and that's a position even supported by ATM.
I would absolutely doubt that Swinburn was in any way "paid off" to come to his conclusions. His position was a very reasonable one, given the state of the science at the time. But since then, a great deal more has been learned about BCM-7 and A1, and about the fact that drinking A2 avoids at least some of the problems associated with A1.
As to what percentage of NZ milk is A1, I've seen various estimates, but it's not that much of an issue because in standard milk the two types are mixed together, and even having just a small percentage of A1 in the mix can have bad effects on some people with certain medical preconditions.
Thanks for those 2 posts NT001. Good and informative. I didn't know the details of this so great to learn more about it.