Back to 98 cents
On light volume so doesn’t mean anything
no worries
Printable View
Back to 98 cents
On light volume so doesn’t mean anything
no worries
Wow Lets have a look at the Macquarie Group shareholding in OCA. It is some 330 million shares? Lets place a value on them of 330 m x 98 cents= $323 Million . The public holds 200 Mill shares at 98cents= $196 Million . Total shareholding is worth $519 million.
HEY as I see it OCA's assets have passed $1 billion plus goodwill, 47 freehold properties, well over 1000 care units coming on stream and Liz leading (must be worth another Bill) and that experienced Southern success story giving advice/ guidance and 3500 skilled staff in place (try and duplicate that ) on course to pay a final dividend of 4----4.6%?
I am convinced Macquarie Group could get $2.50 A a share this afternoon and the buyer would still have more assets than liabilities in a top class, highly regarded, well led, skilled business with mighty cash flow and real bricks and mortar (NZ real estate in a sector growing hugely although not without competition I agree)
Cant wait for them to sell but hey this is a dividend driven, highly profitable company in its first year (Amazing). Macquarie Group would be mad to sell. (They are worth $482 bill A).
I'm buying still.
T_j, you never have really explained by you think they are ‘cheap’
Why are they ‘cheap’
I think when the sp does rise, it will happen quickly. By the end of 2021 I will see $2.50-$3.00 per share. Great return I think!!!!
I do think similar thoughts Ggcc. There are similarities in this share to shares I purchased 10+ years ago. Often I sold out too early.
DYOR and enjoy the fun & challanges of putting your cash into operations you don't control yourself ...
You don't want to be left wishing the governement will look after your pension and retirement plans. Investing in various ways is one way to boost your wealth for the short and up to long term.
OCA IMO can do a lot of good for a kiwi company, operating in New Zealand. I value that and it is another reason I happily invested in OCA, keeping NZ money, in NZ
I've been buying as much as I can afford in the last few weeks in the 90's. I see this as a realistic 50% + return in 12 months
\I note OCA has 1443 care units in the pipeline. That is a very big cash flow stream of possibly close to $450 mill.I am not certain of prices of these suites outside AK and ,of course, this will take some years. (indeed hopefully the growth in care of all types will long outlast me!). With OCA's super record and ability to care for the unwell, infirm etc the suites will, of course, bring ever increasing care and hospital type work, need ever increasing staff and will generate income. Managed carefully, accounting for every dollar, free of thieves(which have plagued my investment history both in my business life and in NZ public companies), developing 1st class staff in every area. I fully accept OCA has competition and good competition too---- so much the better to learn,aim high and deliver. And having Liz leading OCA is worth another bill.
OCA has "Stable revenue from “needs-based”care service which underpins our dividend payments with Regular “annuity-like” DMF earnings from the village activities" taken straight from Macquarie Conference Investor Presentation
Doesn't "Annuity" mean an inflation adjusted pension income!!!
I'm going out to buy some more.
Looking ahead to FY19 I have these on a dividend yield of 5.5% based on 5.5 cps, the mid point of their payout range 50 - 60% on underlying earnings of 10 cps. (No imputation credits at this stage but there could be later which would be a good bonus on top of that 5.5%). Paid pretty well to enjoy seeing your capital grow.
Lower risk than some of the others in the sector too due to more care based business and a much higher percentage of future developments already having resource consent.
Forward PE only about 10. Once they prove up their business model and we get rid of the private equity overhang this once could fly !
Some big numbers and back to the 99-100
warren bought them all :t_up:
anyway, lets see if that clears the current overhang out or not
Agree fully that Mr market awaits news on the Macquarie holding of course. But I personally have no worries. 1 Billion assets in good stuff ? Highly profitable in its 1st year with much growth ahead and good people, very good people in place.
I see that Xero is, after 10 years, possibly on the way to posting a small dividend.
"Having accumulated $334.8 million of losses over the past decade, Xero posted its first positive earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation of $26 million in the year on a 38 percent gain in operating revenue to $397.7 million and a 34 percent gain in subscriber numbers to 1.39 million".
Not for me folks.
What's up with the sudden surge in volume on both OCA and ARV?
A rising tide raises all boats? Or whatever the saying is? 2 birds in the bed are better than none is my favorite one thou I'm not sure that's the right use either?
The XRO story is awesome, I have a lot of respect for long term holders and those that made heaps from buying early and selling near the top(Whoops, that should be double top) Who knows where the price will be in a few years? Whilst a share like OCA is a good solid buy, it will never return to IPO buyers anything like what XRO has.
They are in escrow until after the results are announced I believe, in May 18. Oh, thats soon.
so has an insto cleared the decks in anticipation of Maccaquacca selling down immediately? Can't see it, they'll do a trade deal(s)
So it'll be next Monday night then :eek2:
I have last years annual report (hard copy) on my desk as I'm typing this. I can assure you their balance date is 31 May each year and you can look forward to them reporting their annual result in late July 2018.
Ah, yep, I knew May had something to do with it, thanks B. I was just relying on some unreliable memory cells, which aren't hard copy:confused:
I agree with you Mr couta.
But I will say I would be most likely to buy at 41 and have to sell at 26. Like Mr Buffet says, who knows the real worth of an intellectual Company? Not him and sure as hell not me...... and no dividend for 11 years!!!
Not for me..... but OCA yummy!!!
I see lots of selling and buying of OCA! Why not? Buy and hold for approx 10 weeks and you get 2...2.6 %-in the bank- That's close to 13% p.a. That would help those share funds by that amt! Little wonder then the buying pressure but who is selling (a nut case or .....) ??????
Looks positive. Glad I am +++ invested in this share. Must admit too early to say it is rising quickly
Sure is winner69, highest it has been since February, yet still so cheap, even that all time high price is going to prove to be cheap in a few years time I'm sure.
we need to keep saying positive things to keep the share price up above $1, and only going up
looking like clear skies above, at the moment. That last crossing of the 1.5m, 0.3m and then the odd number was a sure sign the seller has finished, to me anyway.
lets see from here
Hi All,
Could someone provide a screen dump of the buy and sell waiting list.
Also - anyone with time care to explain the rights issue to holders, great to learn.
Glad to see price rising, have held from IPO.
Cheers
Achieving $54m in F18 underlying earnings easy peasey
That’s about 9 cents a share so a share price over $1.30 would be more reasonable
Even then would br ‘cheaper’ than SUM other company.
OCA had its time on the sidelines .....market finally realising what its missing out on
Onwards and upwards (quite fast) from here
Meant to add that Macquarie won’t ‘dump’ their shares on the market ...not their way of doing things
If they want out it will be done all nice and orderly
Talk if this ‘overhang’ is just punters with vivid imaginations
t_j reminded us yesterday share price highest since February
Now it’s broken the shackles and gone through the 101 barrier good time to be in.
Last time it exhibited that behaviour resulted in a good trade
However had to sell around the 109/110 mark when it run out of puff
But time has moved on and OCA have reassured us that all is on track so hopefully this time I’ll be holding a lot longer .....well into the 130s before the end of June I reckon.
I think an institutional placement is the most likely outcome if they want to exit their stake. Probably done nice and orderly like Winner has suggested. They'll probably have a trading halt while the book-build process for the placement is undertaken. Who knows, if its a great result for the year ended 31 May announced in due course and the outlook looks strong any placement could be north of the current SP or perhaps not. What's not in dispute is that the company is confident they're on track to meet their prospectus forecast of 8.42 cps underlying profit and at $1.02 that puts the company on forward PE, (very shortly to be historic PE) of just 12.1 making it the cheapest stock in the retirement sector by quite SUM margin.
That said you'd expect SUM others to be trading at a significantly higher PE given their remarkably consistent and proven high growth rate. This one is like a young filly having its first gallop around the track after showing promising form at the trials. Its cheap but unproven at this stage in my opinion.
I like this one and have a stake but I prefer my horses to be more seasoned and proven performers.
Beagle, I always respect your point of view and totally rate your opinions offered to us all. I`ve spent a load of time on OCA and ARV recently and I don`t quite feel your reluctance on OCA`s youth. They have been constructing stuff for at least 7 years with their profit margins on the builds CONSISTENTLY improving each year. That tells me they know how to tell builders what they want and how much to pay. Their asset value has also CONSISTENTLY grown too which tells me the same story. Add on to that their proven reputation of no 1 elderly care reputation.
On a slightly different tangent now...The whole macquarie thing seems to have spooked many but I think it's all a bit overdone . My belief is that they have just done their job and geared up working capital for expansion. Bulk up or be swallowed up. On this specific occasion they are our friends.
For me the horse doesn't need to do any more laps, its already bolted.
Thanks Maverick, that's very kind of you and yes looking at the filly from your perspective the coat looks pretty shiny ! No argument with that and totally respect your point of view. I guess where I'm coming from is for a slightly higher multiple one can have a proven performer that improves its speed at 45% average for every lap of the track and with SUM six laps done now while listed and 14 before that, that's a mighty impressive stayer.
I do acknowledge your point though that OCA have a track record of getting projects completed on time and on budget and that's no mean feat in the Auckland market especially and as you say their care reputation is second to none. They also have a good pipeline of consented developments. Bob each way bet can't hurt, might even get the quinella :)
I'm looking to add some more OCA and get back into RYM in the near future. The tsunami of baby boomers entering retirement over the next 25 years makes the whole sector a no brainer long term investment in my opinion.
Hi All,
FYI - https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/...ectid=12051079
Article on retirement villages as a whole in New Zealand.
Thanks law student for posting this link. The only thing that could derail this retirement village juggernaut is over supply so the NZ hearlad head lines "81 retirement villages planned but little change in demand among kiwis over 75" is of huge concern.
i doubt there are few who could read this article through its 3 page entirety without drifting off into R.E.M. Sleep. However ...persist we must , the concept is vital. The article headline implies a lacklustre increase in penetration rate* amongst the oldies while villas are being built flat out. (*That means the % of 75+yr olds that live in a retirement home,currently 12.6 %)
the news article is derived from JLL white paper- retirement village data base. Some serious intel gathered for us on a plate by JLL, cheers to you guys.So to sum up the gist of it to save folk out there with better things to do here goes,
JLL Front page executive summary says the low penetration rates are not customer driven but rather "the supply of retirement village units in the region have not kept pace with growth in residents aged 75+ yrs in the area."
also "JLL expects to record continued growth in NZ 75+ penetration rate over the next 15 yrs, assuming adequate RV unit supply reaches the market in order to fulfil demand"
last year an extra 2123 oldies went into a village . So I guess that needs a build rate of about 1700 (my unresearched guess)units to accomodate them which is about the current build rate.
so ....no need for concern,well at least for 20 years. In fact I think the more that get built will just mean more oldies get to move in sooner. "build them and they will come",Kevin Costner.
All of this is about villas , not care beds , so that really plays plays into OCA s hand, because there ain't many of those being built.
disclaimer, I have two oldies who I want the best for.
I like this filly. She reminds me of Black Caviar - famously recognised to have "the neck of a duchess and the ar$e of a cook".
So far, she has only won her first 'on-track' race, but if I have backed the right horse, there's a winning streak of 24 more 'wins' to come.
I'll keep putting more bets on her nose after each win over the next few years, i.e. add to a winning position
Lawstudent thanks for the link to the informative article.
I would like to see a global analysis on the desirability and realistic expectation that will happen to New Zealand. A result of immigration into New Zealand. There are some positives in the future that are not accounted for.
Once migration is through a few hurdles of people who have arrived in the last say 5 years their family members can be sponsored etc. Many variables to consider.
New Zealand as a retirement destination etc. Increased expectations by the ageing population. New norms.
Wow close to 2 million shares in this small NZSX company sold dropping with a 2.....2.9 % return due in, roughly the next 6 weeks giving the big boys a 13% annual return. I cannot understand this as it defies logic. Anyone got a logical answer as I would very much like to learn more.
The price has nothing actually to do with my interest, rather its the remarkable numbers sold forgoing this profitable time period just ahead. Mr. Market is famous for being sane but!!!!!!
Balance date is 31 May. They will report in late July. The dividend is unlikely to be paid before late August.
Your best guide to likely final dividend date is to extrapolate out 6 months from the interim dividend payment date which was on 20 February 2018.
I personally don't think a modest dividend due in late August has any effect on the SP now and is unlikely too until such time as the dividend is formally announced in late July.
The way the property market has been performing of late the embedded value Oceania say they have is now heaps more than shown in the interim report.
Resales in H2 will pick this up in underlying earnings
Because of this and if the number of sales is a bit higher than expected (double whammy) that $50m odd underlying earnings will be smashed ...maybe by up to 10% more
And the share price collapses today ...just a blip ....be over $1.10 next week on way to $1.30 plus. The market still be roused from a period of uncertainty
Mr Market offering a great deal on OCA shares right now, should one choose to accept it.
Because these low prices won't last long... surely
Can't be such a great deal and no big rush to take it up --- although today was a bit busy but that was probably instos playing games
The likes of you t_j are letting the team down ...why aren't you and your believers buying heaps more --- needs somebody to create the illusion of demand
Could be profit taking by a lot of those who bought at the IPO a year ago ....been patient but seen the price go nowhere since it got to a buck last July/August and have just given up ....But cashed in a decent 12 month return.
They may be the clever ones after all.
Oh well, I bought a few on today's dip.
Sure has - almost 8 months of going nowhere
Could say a flat trend
Trends generally only get broken / change by ‘shocks’ (something that isn’t normal or happened previously). If that doesn’t occur the ‘trend’ / status quo remains
Wonder what the ‘shock’ to break Oceania out of it malaise will be? ...and when?
Recent announcements have done nothing ...too mundane .... all expected ....it needs a ‘shock’
The market is not insane as some say.
This is not technical analysis ....rather a discussion on what makes trends change.
The filly has a shiny coat, is well groomed and well proportioned but the fact is there's no real conviction to pay more than a buck per share.
I really don't see that sentiment changing much until the majority owner has decided what they want to do with their stake.
People can bleat and moan and shoot the breeze all they like but until we see the results in late July I doubt it will make much if any difference.
Thankfully late July is only a couple of months away so the impatient don't have all that long to wait now.
Not sure what all the moaning is about.
These shares went up in a year from 84 cents to $1 and paid a 4 cent dividend along the way.
That's roughly a 24% return in a year, 30% if you hold since IPO (just some days more). Not too shabby - and actually this share has the potential to do the same trick again and again and again.
I am quite happy to wait and expect in the decades to come a similar return from this share - year after year. And this will be absolutely independent from any big shareholder buying or selling or whatever - it is just the performance of the company which counts long term.
Not too worried about the market doing its thing and to overlay some oscillations - at the end its the long term trend which counts ;);
Seriously - why would anybody worry whether the SP is today at 98 cents or at 103? Who cares? Any other investor out there?
Yes BP, one more here - read my previous tip sheet:)
BlackPeter - a young novice here and I agree with your statement. I am a long-term investor in my approach to shares and property. Although I only stumble through the financials with my basic knowledge, the point which made me jump on this and get involved in the IPO is the tidal wave of retirees in the next 1-2 decades (I guess a macro view to our urn shape population). The leadership of the board seems good, and a track record of delivering projects on a budget (correct me if I'm wrong), also the units and buildings they build are pretty fantastic and seem to be winning alot of awards (I follow them on Facebook and get posts about once per week on recent activities in the units).
Would be great if someone has the time to help me a question I have after reading a few of the posts in the past 1-2 days. OCA is partly owned by another company - who holds a large stake, substantial I guess. What impact would it have on the OCA if the other company was wanting to get out, also why would the other company want to get out, results have been great to date.
Winner69 - what makes you think the price is going to lift in the next 1-2 weeks just out of interest.
Thanks in advance, and please keep all the comments coming. Its great to learn.
Can't wait for Winners response to this...
Straight back to that bigly $1.02 with nobody selling till $1.03 - no worries
Looks like yesterday was no more than an illusion of people wanting to get out
I personally are looking for about 30% p.a. for the next 5 years at least. 25% capital and 5% divvy give or take a percent or 2. I think BP is totally right. Regardless of the overhang and how they deal with it post result the worst that can happen is a short window of buying opportunity - the best is steady as we go with 30% returns year in year out. I got as much as I could at listing and have bought 6 more tranches up to $1.03 and will keep on buying at these prices
Interesting math here ---"Ryman will pay a final dividend of 10.9 cents a share on June 22, taking the total dividend for the year to 20.4 cents, up from 17.8 cents a year earlier.Its shares last traded at $11.24 and have gained 30 percent the past year".
Good for Ryman but as I see it its a 2% (max ) return on capital ($11.24) to the stock holder?
Yet in its 1st year OCA is on target to pay stockholders 4....4.9% maybe even 5% ($1.0 .......$1.05 share cost approx) . I love dividends so should I sell every Ryman share I have and buy OCA ?? I do see the 30% increase in stock value but I love cash --and they may not get another 30% as the numbers get rather large whereas on a little bitzy $1 ummm!
If it's divvies you want, why wouldn't you buy the likes of HLG and SPK and get 10% gross minimum return? I would be basing the decision on potential increase in SP over the next few years, OCA should double over the next 2 or so years, I doubt RYM will. PS-Having said that RYM still top dog on the porch and have an amazing history in comparison to OCA at this point in time.
The way I see the model it's not that cash hungry to expand. The magic of the "right to occupy" model is that you don't need that much money to keep growing.
Bob the builder assembles the unit, OCA say thanks very much, good job and hands over the cash for the keys. Then grandma rocks up to OCA and says "wow , I like that " and pays cash up front for it and moves in for 7.7 years. OCA have just recouped their outlay (which includes about a $58,000 profit margin on the build.) All cashed up ,OCA can go back to see Bob to build another one. Repeat.
Then when Grandma moves out she has the substantial deferred management fees and tidying up costs deducted from her initial outlay. OCA put their prices up after 7.7 years of inflation and starts the whole process again.
The way gran sees it, she bought the "corker nice" place. OCA see it as Gran has just paid cash for a house she is now renting from OCA...plus she will pay to repaint it when she leave.... model tenant. Everyone is happy.
They are looking at applying this model to care beds now too but I don`t know how far down that track they are.
When I went to the infratil shareholder meeting. One of the directors said the reason why they sold out of Metlifecare was the clever accounting was even too clever for them to understand. They believed MET was a sound business, but due to them not fully understanding they sold that asset...... seemed with MET they did the right thing.
I would be surprised if they bought into OCA, but hey who know what the superfund and infratil could do for the elderly of NZ.
Many thanks C. Most interesting. Naturally I am as keen on tax fee C growth as anyone hence my very real $ interest in OCA.
but to hold Ryman stock at , say, 2% return when the chances of it doubling to $22 are fairly remote to say the least! makes me scratch my head. (I willingly acknowledge R's blue chip status but we've got Liz they haven't!) But OCA with a 4--5% return already proved (and almost in the bank) and a very Very real chance of doubling to $2 makes me feel rather content. (as I see things) so far.
I was just reading about an Australian company, Zenitas, who are addressing a gap in public funding and addressing the fact that a large percentage of people 'want' to age in their own home, by providing in-home services. Obviously this business model is very transport oriented, needing a distributed localised delivery.
It appears that the equivalent services are supplied by a myriad of little businesses in NZ. (And, indeed, Zenitas bought a few businesses to build themselves up.)
Am I right in thinking there is no public company in NZ that has this business model? It occurs to me that a village with a large infrastructure (kitchen, health, and care staff) could add this (as a sub-business) to people living in the surrounding streets (or wider). A village-based business already has a network of infrastructure around the country.
For in-home assistance in NZ, it's provided by a division of the DHB's called Health Care. It's free (or at least it might be asset tested, not sure) and is an attempt to keep folk in their homes as long as possible, before they go into rest homes. Far cheaper for the gummit, before they go in to villages that carry a massive taxpayer funded subsidy. It works very well, I have recently experienced it with my mother-in=law.
Thanks Xerof.
Discl: holding and buying OCA
Closed the week at $1.00 ...unchanged for the week in spite of all the mid week excitement. Been about a buck plus or minus a few cents for many months
What’s going to be ‘shock’ that gets the OCA out of its malaise
No ‘shock’ and share price stays about a buck ....at least its looking like that
Dear boy, simply a retest of the breakout level. Time to buy again Monday
Good post BP. Agree although I think 10-15% per annum gains are more likely plus ~ 5% dividends. Nothing too shabby about that. Good buying up to and including $1.00 at present...anything above that at this stage is just the market getting a few months ahead of itself in my opinion.
totally agree with your anticipated figures Beagle but I also reckon we can add a third layer of an extra 5-10 % pa for the next five years as it's Pe is revised from 11.5 to 16 -18 Pe. So, as over optimistic as it sounds I think we can expect a total return of at least 20% for many years.
Greetings OCA friends..long time reader, first time posting. I'm 22 from Auckland. Feel like I know you all well from months of reading your comments. Looking forward to what OCA has to offer in 2018.
Disc: my biggest holding by far!
Nice little jump for the day, up 2c. Wonder how long it will hold.
i will shout you a virtual beer emoji if we get there!
you should be able to afford a real beer by then
Morning star have just increased Ryman`s FVE to $11.30. They reckon that Ryman has a decent economic moat around it. I don't agree with them at all. The Ryman brick walls can be climbed! I can see it now, an unstoppable silver/grey army of determined ARV and OCA residents on amphibious motor scooters.
Anyone know where the beat place is to find the numbers for this ageing population? Break down of age groups etc?
This is rather cool (once you get the feel for it)
https://www.stats.govt.nz/tools/inte...or-new-zealand
Stats have heaps of stuff on their site - including population projections well out into the future. Links on that same page
The JLL Retirement Village white paper is also quite a good reference for population numbers - note, it was released early 2017:
http://www.jll.nz/new-zealand/en-gb/...paper-2017.pdf
Finally got into this one with a very small position. Not normally an investor who likes to buy into unproven companies, but I like the signs. I would have to see more to load up on more shares going forward.
Management are loading up on shares, and the company has so far delivered on promises. Share price is also quite cheap and it could be a very good long term hold. I'm not interested in price changes in the short term but I'd like to see more dialogue about the medium-long term aspirations of this one.
I too bought some today on the back of the couple of sellers smashing those buy orders. On a PE of ~9.9 with FY18 forecast figures that they reaffirmed recently, it sure is excellent value within this industry given the likes of RYM and SUM on a PE of 28 and 20 respectively. Yes, OCA doesn't have the proven track record of development growth as some others, however the fact they're delivering developments on schedule and meeting the promised lofty IPO forecasts gives me strength they are serious about this.
The market is most likely over-discounting the sell down of Macquarie's escrow shares. As mentioned by other posters, this will be in an orderly block sale to institutional holders at a slight discount to market. Nothing to worry about.
I'm not afraid to add these to the stash of SUM at the bottom of the drawer and watch the returns grow over the near future. Buying at these levels has enough margin of safety to weather any complications, but I only see upside from here. Some fresh guidance around the corner should be the kick that this stock deserves.
Best paired in a portfolio with one of the more mature operators such as SUM or RYM imo.
Terrible share with very dim prospects, I think sellers should smash the bid at $1.01 :D