Can't be a dog forever eh sb9
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Hopefully they can give some sort of guidance on 25th Nov. With all the costs been taking out and an amazing housing market you would think there would be some good news.
Well for that to happen they need to make money.. A little luck and good execution from here should see that happen..
I work for Fletchers. The lack of leadership, the inefficient and bureaucratic quagmire of the business experienced by me and many others is the reason I'd never invest in them. Invest at your own peril.
And P.S alot of people are still pissed the CEO and his underlings had a lesser pay reduction then the rest of the workforce during covid. I know they had to back down after the uproar at the time but this provides an insight to the management culture there. Theyve lost a lot of respect that will take years to get back.
Root cause runs a little deeper than current Leadership Group. DYOR as decide. I also work for a unit of the empire...
but will any company tax be paid -- as a sure sign it was a Real Taxable Profit for the period the dividend may
apply to - with Imputation Credits attached ? ;)
You know - those bits of company tax paid by Co that many companies attach to their distributions, and have been lacking from
some recent FBU distributions (ie: 0% Imputed)
No imputation credits = 33% of Dividend distribution grabbed & given to Infernal Revenue before anyone smells a
Divy cheque or sees a DC into their bank
Time will tell...
Who's carrying the can on Damage Bill for the SkyCity Convention Cente affected by the large fire ?
- Insurers or FBU or both ? ;)
Insurers from what I have heard/read
LMAO...It was an accident. No conspiracy.
I am looking forward to Nov 25 and an update maybe even some guidance and touch wood no more construction FUBAR
Commercial messy. Banks wont give you money unless you have a good line of pre leases/sales. Residential still very busy. Plenty of land being gobbled up by hungry developers and builders and of course home owners..
Like interest rates and LVR? RBNZ will have a part to play in that. People just need to remind themselves that when interest rates start to go up they are starting from lows that we haven't seen before.
One of many charts on my laptop - Building Activity in NZ from Stats NZ data
I'm always bemused how the FBU share price chart never looks like this
Maybe it's because they never do very well overseas in addition to stuffing things up in NZ
Never mind - just a casual observation because times are different now for one of NZ's biggest companies - aren't they
One of many charts on my laptop - Building Activity in NZ from Stats NZ data
I'm always bemused how the FBU share price never looks like this
Maybe it's because they never do very well overseas in addition to stuffing things up in NZ
Never mind - just a casual observation because times are different now for one of NZ's biggest companies - aren't they
Is that guy Ross Taylor stil in charge at Fletcher HQ
The share price was about $7.20 when he joined in 2017
Fran O'Sullivan did a good interview with Ross after his appointment
Fletcher Building calls in Mister Fix-it
Ross is quoted as saying -
"You have to create an environment where we think through where we want to go and we've got to make sure we're engaged around that, and then you've got to deliver against it. And the beauty of me coming in as an external is you're a circuit breaker", Taylor said
Maybe he saw it as a long term project
Yes hes still in charge. Walked into a Poorly run construction business hence the huge losses in legacy projects. Ralph Norris walked not long after. I judge him from this financial year on. He did buy a number of shares at a high price not long after. Sorry cant remember what price or how many but wasn't far away from $7.
You are an extremely patient and forgiving person
I've only 'traded' FBU twice and made heaps - esp in the early 2000's and even sold at about $12 pre GFC and then had another go about 10 years ago. However never seen anything to attract me back. ....but one performance might be what it should be and the share price might go over $10 again.
I'm quietly watching
PS - Master TA guru Phaedrus one once described FBU as TA person's dream stock - does what it should do or something like that
One of Phaedrus's post on the FBU Chart thread in 2007 said - People often claim that TA is only useful for trading and is quite unsuitable for the longer term. This chart gives the lie to that. TA got you into this stock over 6 years ago in early 2001 - and has kept you in ever since. It will continue to keep you in, so long as the uptrend continues.
He's not the root cause of the issues Winner. Previous CEO/Board were. Look at the destruction of share holder wealth since Chch Earthquakes. How does a business FUBAR it so badly that they controlled?.
Taylor's just cleaned it up and made changes to focus on NZ/Aust. Whether he is done his job will be decided over time. For me its this financial year on regardless of market conditions. They have already made work force smaller for a 15/20% down turn which thus far hasn't eventuated so all I see is positives at the moment given momentum in the market.
Hit a 6month high today. :t_up:
Trading Update https://www.nzx.com/announcements/362925
I thought by end of year but will go with that
Fletcher Building today provided an update on year-to-date trading for its 2021 financial year. Trading for the four months ended 31 October 2020 (“the period”) compared to the four months ended 31 October 2019 (“the comparative period”) (unaudited results):
- Group revenues up 1%
- Group EBIT before significant items of $227 million, up $80 million
- Group EBIT margin up 2.9ppts to 8.4% due to improved operating efficiency
- Cash flow and balance sheet remain strong: net debt $388 million, liquidity $1.4 billion as at 31 October 2020
Group revenues for the period were 1% ahead of the comparative period, supported by resilient trading conditions in both New Zealand and Australia, especially in the residential sector. Revenues in the New Zealand Core were up 4%, with businesses exposed to finishing trades particularly resilient. Demand for new houses has been robust, with 342 units taken to profit in the Residential business, consistent with the Group’s objective of achieving 700-800 house sales for the full year. In Construction, the portfolio of work continues to be rebalanced to a lower-risk model, with Fletcher Construction being preferred on further major government alliance work in the period. In Australia, revenues were slightly lower than the comparative period, with softer demand in the civil segment and COVID-19 restrictions impacting Victoria.
Group EBIT before significant items of $227 million was $80 million or 55% higher than the comparative period. This was achieved predominantly through a 2.9ppts lift in profit margins across the Group, reflecting the operational performance and efficiency programs implemented over the last two years.
Earnings in the New Zealand Core were up 30%, led by the Concrete and Building Products divisions. Residential and Development earnings were materially higher due to strong house sales, while planned Land Development transactions remain on track for completion in the remainder of FY21. Construction earnings were in line with the comparative period. Earnings in Australia increased as cost-out benefits offset the lower overall revenues. Corporate costs remain well-controlled and were slightly lower than the comparative period.
Group cash flows and the balance sheet remain strong, with Group net debt at $388 million and available liquidity of $1.4 billion at 31 October 2020.
Commenting on the year-to-date performance and expected trading conditions for the remainder of FY21, CEO Ross Taylor said: “Through all the disruption and uncertainty of the past year, our people have adapted and responded superbly, maintaining a focus on delivering for our customers. We were heavily impacted in FY20 by the COVID-19 restrictions, resulting in a significant earnings loss for the Group of $196 million, so we are pleased to have begun the new year well. As we look ahead, our customers are pointing to volumes remaining at current levels through to the start of the new calendar year. However, there is uncertainty in the second half of the financial year, with the impact of broader macro-economic factors on our markets in New Zealand and Australia not yet clear. Also, December and January are always lower trading and earnings months for the Group. At our Annual Shareholders Meeting on 25 November 2020, we intend to provide earnings guidance for 1H21. We will update further on trading conditions at our half-year results announcement on 17 February 2021 and at an investor day planned for May 2021.”
Looks like they've been using pretty good caulking lately. https://www.nzx.com/announcements/362925 :t_up:
I'm going to have to look at my DCF analysis and update a few things and post it to you guys eventually, it's good to see Fletcher doing a bit better now! Great update.
$227m in 4 months - annualised nearly $700m
Years since they have had a result like this
Analyst just asked about a half year dividend - CEO said it is a board decision, and that a full year 2021 dividend might be more likely.
I liked Ross's response re paying back wage subsidy and the context around that. Overall good response both from Ross and Bevan,
$6 this side of Xmas is not out of question.
Did anyone ask them whether they could remember to throw a few Imputation credits at their dividends
in future ? -- if nothing more to provide some element of evidence that something has been thrown into
Robertson's tax bucket by FBU itself on the way through & not the full 33% DWT knifing of shareholders
on the payouts .. ;)
Looks like we're running strong, hopefully no bumps in the road till $6!
Looks like analysts are all busy upgrading their earnings forecasts after Tuesday’s surprise update. Jarden has upgraded their F21 EBIT forecast by 21%.
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/...6MEBCNKPJM7AY/
Paywall
Excerpt :
‘ ..... Jarden Equity Research today released an analysis of Fletcher's performance yesterday.
They praised EBIT of $227m for this financial year's first four months, up $80m on the previous corresponding period.
"This is well above our ahead of market expectation as cost out programme has been more successful and demand growth being more robust. We are now forecasting 1H21 EBIT of $302m, FY21 EBIT of $527m, up from $435m previously,"
The expect Fletcher's current momentum to continue although they retained their neutral rating.
Fletcher will make net profit after tax of $217m in the year to June 30, 2021, a big turnaround on the previous year's $196m loss. Its NPAT will then rise to $262m for the 2022 year and be the same by 2023, the analysts forecast.
Hey Balance ...Jarden will chasing Fletcher’s improved performance and rising share price for a while yet
Another upgrade after half year result I reckon
Don’t brokers upgrades come in threes :):t_up:
If the 2000 to 2007 period is anything to go by, FBU's profit upgrades will come in spurts from the company with brokers (shell-shocked from making bad calls on the stock in the last 4 years) following the company's lead.
Huge volume went through in the last 2 days - over 21m shares - indicative of interest returning to the stock.
On fire today....getting close to $6 mark pretty soon
For Barr have 12 month target of $5.60. Personally I think that's too low but FBU still need to execute. You
could say they under promised and over delivered for a change. Guidance to be issues at Annual Meeting next week so 25th will be interesting.
Just chattered to a close friend of mine. She was telling me she has signed up 100 contracts for land north of Chch in last 3 weeks...Markets on steriods.
It’s human psychology, sb9. There is safety in numbers - pays to congregate around the same forecasts and recommendations. There is no prize in being an outlayer in the industry.
I know from observing the stockbroking industry that if any analyst wants to survive long term, he/she is better off to make safe rather than bold calls.
We as investors need to be aware and take advantage of that fact.
Well, I am not sure I would go that far, however - sharetrader threads are typically a good reflection of the relevant hype level for individual stocks, which is useful information for momentum traders. If that's what you call wisdom, so be it.
Looking at the fundamentals for FBU - no doubt the market is getting hotter. It might be however worthwhile to consider that FBU did a terrible job in making money out of the last building boom ... and if I look at the current situation with high demand but problems on the supply side I would see ways to make money, but as well ways to lose money.
I think the jury is still out which one it will be this time for FBU, but no doubt the next couple of days or weeks the hype avalanche will roll on. Good times for traders.
When ST posters get really dark on a stock as had been the case with FBU, it is a good time indeed to take a step back and review the postings of the more experienced posters. Not all of them are hype or momentum merchants or traders.
Obviously up to each poster to decide who is what amongst the posters here!
Each to their own and I disagree with your viewpoint on collective wisdom. I for sure have leant and picked up few nice picks by reading commentary from different posters here.
Far better served me than by being utilising full broker services.
And re FBU, yes the jury is still out but so far it seem to be on right side of ledger, time will tell.
As I have said earlier is starts this financial year. The Root Causes in Construction division thats caused massive losses for company have been sorted, again time will tell whether they have done it on new jobs won. Still some legacy projects however my understanding is they have allocated provisions already. Guidance due next week off a very low level that they were anticipating and activity is a lot higher post Covid closure than expected.
Absolutely - there are some amazing posts (and posters) around, and I learned as well a lot from them. I don't think we disagree on that.
Having said that - in times when (and on threads where) the hype goes high, the percentage of useful posts typically goes down ... and that's when the other function of threads as "hypemeter" comes into play :):
An observation :
Notice how FBU gets sold down each morning and then, gets bought up when ASX starts trading?
This is the exact opposite and reverse of what happened when the sp was under pressure.
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/...LBSJP2R7R3R5I/
Paywalled
https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showth...460#post858460
Boom in sales of building supplies - official stats.
Most building & construction materials & products are oligopolistically supplied by Fletcher Building & one other player :
Concrete & cement - Holderbank
Plaster & fibreboard - James Hardie
Timber - Carter Holt
Steel - Steel & Tube
Then, there’s roofing, insulation, laminex, mdf flooring etc etc etc
2 Year high. Interesting AGM tomorrow
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-websit...871/335970.pdf
Looking good :
50% forecast uplift in EBIT for H1 F21.
Final dividend expected in F21. Suspect strategic decision to avoid wage subsidy issue not to pay interim dividend.
Update on divvy from Chair, Fy21 full year dividends to resume and will reflect at level for full year subject to no further disruptions due to Covid. They may also start share buy back programmme when they resume dividends. Balance sheet position seem to be in very solid and liquid position to support this.
A decision on land dispute at Ihumatao is expected soon.
$6 here we come...
Picking up from ASM notes from y'day, looks like Directors re-election got bit of stick from few angry investor groups especially with respect to Barbara Chapman.
And re dividends to start at end of Fy21 to be at same level as full year, I'm picking 15c final and a special of 15c as well to take total to 30c at least.
Thoughts...
Its all well and good to give shareholders all these divvies but the staff deserve a break too. Without the "Team" shareholders get sweet FA. So lets say 0.15 this year is enough. That way staff and get a little more
I like Jeffries price target of $8.
supposedly we will hear how much Fletchers will get for that land at Ihumātao today
Hope they screwed the government good and proper for sake of shareholders ....even though tax payer will lose out again
Looks like FBU already spent the money to buy this piece of strategic land for future housing in Auckland - 109 hectares near Kumeu (1 hour drive)
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/fletch...RZ2BH5QQICHY4/
Paywalled
A huge tract of West Auckland farmland more than half the size of Hobsonville Point could be transformed into the city's next "urban village" after being snapped up by construction giant Fletcher Building.
I expect FBU to post another massive profit upgrade in the new year - house prices are going nuts out there and FBU's spec builds must be racking in the windfall profits.
Case in point - a standalone unit in Tamaki Regeneration FBU concession sold for $980k in October but the new units being marketed are being offered for $1.4m !
https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/money...007-reinz.html
As the national median house price skyrocketed to a record high in November, new data shows more residential properties were sold than in any month since before the Global Financial Crisis.
According to the Real Estate Institute of New Zealand (REINZ), 9885 residential properties were sold last month, up a massive 29.6 percent from November 2019. That's the highest number of properties sold since March 2007 and the most November sales since 2006.
The median national house price jumped to a new high of $749,000, an increase of 18.5 percent from $632,000 a year ago. It's also up $24,000 since October.
Powering past $6.00, up to 2 year high.
Market is obviously expecting another profit upgrade and FBU will not disappoint imo.
Talk to any builder and developer out there and they will tell you that they are starting to experience building product price increases and supply delays due to the high demand out there.
Update on last post :
"Case in point - a standalone unit in Tamaki Regeneration FBU concession sold for $980k in October but the new units being marketed are being offered for $1.4m.'
Only one left to sell.
Lets see what they offer at HY. Be interesting what sort of guidance they offer for FY. Commercial still messy so lets see what Govt infrastructure jobs they win...Residential is what it is booming..Lots of work to go back to on the 13th.
SP powering on further today - $6.23 and a 2 year high.
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/...OLDKN65ETSETE/
Great trend for new home builders like FBU.
Indeed however commercial projects are still very uncertain going forward and how long the housing market boom goes for is anyones guess. H/Y on Feb 17 will be very interesting especially with eye on F/Y 21 guidance and what start of 21/22 year may look like with forward work going forward..
we have always seen this as a sell trade. The last time there was a housing boom did the company make a profit? Mr SNOP might have a view on this company.
The residential & building material divisions made heaps of money, squandered away by the commercial projects division and the overseas operations.
The game with FBU has changed - watch the earnings grow and grow from the underlying residential & building material operations.
Going to surprise on upside big time and full year outlook going to be great come this Wednesday
Better get in today so not to miss out on the big step up.
Looking good eh Balance
I never actually realised, but they are the largest (private sector) employer in NZ! Just bigger than Woolworths (Progressive)
FLETCHER BUILDING SHARED SERVICES Wage Subsidy (9694 staff) $67,683,717.60
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/...2472HLWCLWWNQ/
Excerpt :
"The building sector remained the most optimistic of the sectors surveyed, as strong construction demand supported a lift in confidence.
"With the pipeline of residential, non-residential and Government construction work increasing, building sector firms are hiring to keep up with demand. The rebound in construction activity is driving capacity utilisation in the sector to record highs," Leung said.
The labour shortage was becoming increasingly acute, she said.
There was now 99 per cent capacity utilisation in the sector, stronger than had been anticipated."
I think you mean next month when they report the half yearly?
Meanwhile, sector is looking better and better.
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/...2472HLWCLWWNQ/
Excerpt :
"The building sector remained the most optimistic of the sectors surveyed, as strong construction demand supported a lift in confidence.
"With the pipeline of residential, non-residential and Government construction work increasing, building sector firms are hiring to keep up with demand. The rebound in construction activity is driving capacity utilisation in the sector to record highs," Leung said.
The labour shortage was becoming increasingly acute, she said.
There was now 99 per cent capacity utilisation in the sector, stronger than had been anticipated."
HY 17/02. Major concern with everything is Supply Chain. Construction not immune.